Skip to main content
NCBI home page
Occupational and Environmental Medicine logoLink to Occupational and Environmental Medicine
. 1996 Dec;53(12):823–831. doi: 10.1136/oem.53.12.823

Incidence of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in the vicinity of nuclear sites in Scotland, 1968-93.

L Sharp 1, R J Black 1, E F Harkness 1, P A McKinney 1
PMCID: PMC1128616  PMID: 8994402

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: The primary aims were to investigate the incidence of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in children resident near seven nuclear sites in Scotland and to determine whether there was any evidence of a gradient in risk with distance of residence from a nuclear site. A secondary aim was to assess the power of statistical tests for increased risk of disease near a point source when applied in the context of census data for Scotland. METHODS: The study data set comprised 1287 cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma diagnosed in children aged under 15 years in the period 1968-93, validated for accuracy and completeness. A study zone around each nuclear site was constructed from enumeration districts within 25 km. Expected numbers were calculated, adjusting for sex, age, and indices of deprivation and urban-rural residence. Six statistical tests were evaluated. Stone's maximum likelihood ratio (unconditional application) was applied as the main test for general increased incidence across a study zone. The linear risk score based on enumeration districts (conditional application) was used as a secondary test for declining risk with distance from each site. RESULTS: More cases were observed (O) than expected (E) in the study zones around Rosyth naval base (O/E 1.02), Chapelcross electricity generating station (O/E 1.08), and Dounreay reprocessing plant (O/E 1.99). The maximum likelihood ratio test reached significance only for Dounreay (P = 0.030). The linear risk score test did not indicate a trend in risk with distance from any of the seven sites, including Dounreay. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of a generally increased risk of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma around nuclear sites in Scotland, nor any evidence of a trend of decreasing risk with distance from any of the sites. There was a significant excess risk in the zone around Dounreay, which was only partially accounted for by the sociodemographic characteristics of the area. The statistical power of tests for localised increased risk of disease around a point source should be assessed in each new setting in which they are applied.

Full text

PDF
823

Selected References

These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.

  1. Alexander F. E., Ricketts T. J., McKinney P. A., Cartwright R. A. Community lifestyle characteristics and risk of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children. Lancet. 1990 Dec 15;336(8729):1461–1465. doi: 10.1016/0140-6736(90)93176-p. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  2. Bithell J. F., Dutton S. J., Draper G. J., Neary N. M. Distribution of childhood leukaemias and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas near nuclear installations in England and Wales. BMJ. 1994 Aug 20;309(6953):501–505. doi: 10.1136/bmj.309.6953.501. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  3. Bithell J. F., Stone R. A. On statistical methods for analysing the geographical distribution of cancer cases near nuclear installations. J Epidemiol Community Health. 1989 Mar;43(1):79–85. doi: 10.1136/jech.43.1.79. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  4. Bithell J. F. The choice of test for detecting raised disease risk near a point source. Stat Med. 1995 Nov 15;14(21-22):2309–2322. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780142104. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  5. Black R. J., Sharp L., Harkness E. F., McKinney P. A. Leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: incidence in children and young adults resident in the Dounreay area of Caithness, Scotland in 1968-91. J Epidemiol Community Health. 1994 Jun;48(3):232–236. doi: 10.1136/jech.48.3.232. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  6. Black R. J., Urquhart J. D., Kendrick S. W., Bunch K. J., Warner J., Jones D. A. Incidence of leukaemia and other cancers in birth and schools cohorts in the Dounreay area. BMJ. 1992 May 30;304(6839):1401–1405. doi: 10.1136/bmj.304.6839.1401. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  7. Draper G. J., Stiller C. A., Cartwright R. A., Craft A. W., Vincent T. J. Cancer in Cumbria and in the vicinity of the Sellafield nuclear installation, 1963-90. BMJ. 1993 Jan 9;306(6870):89–94. doi: 10.1136/bmj.306.6870.89. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  8. Glass S., Gray M., Eden O. B., Hann I. Scottish validation study of Cancer Registration data childhood leukaemia 1968-1981--I. Leuk Res. 1987;11(10):881–885. doi: 10.1016/0145-2126(87)90133-0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  9. Greaves M. F., Alexander F. E. An infectious etiology for common acute lymphoblastic leukemia in childhood? Leukemia. 1993 Mar;7(3):349–360. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  10. Heasman M. A., Kemp I. W., Urquhart J. D., Black R. Childhood leukaemia in northern Scotland. Lancet. 1986 Feb 1;1(8475):266–266. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(86)90794-4. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  11. Heasman M. A., Urquhart J. D., Black R. J., Kemp I. W., Glass S., Gray M. Leukaemia in young persons in Scotland: a study of its geographical distribution and relationship to nuclear installations. Health Bull (Edinb) 1987 May;45(3):147–151. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  12. Hill C., Laplanche A. Overall mortality and cancer mortality around French nuclear sites. Nature. 1990 Oct 25;347(6295):755–757. doi: 10.1038/347755a0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  13. Jablon S., Hrubec Z., Boice J. D., Jr Cancer in populations living near nuclear facilities. A survey of mortality nationwide and incidence in two states. JAMA. 1991 Mar 20;265(11):1403–1408. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  14. Kinlen L. J., O'Brien F., Clarke K., Balkwill A., Matthews F. Rural population mixing and childhood leukaemia: effects of the North Sea oil industry in Scotland, including the area near Dounreay nuclear site. BMJ. 1993 Mar 20;306(6880):743–748. doi: 10.1136/bmj.306.6880.743. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  15. McKinney P. A., Ironside J. W., Harkness E. F., Arango J. C., Doyle D., Black R. J. Registration quality and descriptive epidemiology of childhood brain tumours in Scotland 1975-90. Br J Cancer. 1994 Nov;70(5):973–979. doi: 10.1038/bjc.1994.432. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  16. McKinney P. A., Smith K., Findlay E. The chief scientist reports ... The Scottish case control study of childhood leukaemia and cancer: methodology and environmental measures of exposure. Health Bull (Edinb) 1995 Jul;53(4):222–229. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  17. McLaughlin J. R., Clarke E. A., Nishri E. D., Anderson T. W. Childhood leukemia in the vicinity of Canadian nuclear facilities. Cancer Causes Control. 1993 Jan;4(1):51–58. doi: 10.1007/BF00051714. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  18. Michaelis J., Keller B., Haaf G., Kaatsch P. Incidence of childhood malignancies in the vicinity of west German nuclear power plants. Cancer Causes Control. 1992 May;3(3):255–263. doi: 10.1007/BF00124259. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  19. Roman E., Beral V., Carpenter L., Watson A., Barton C., Ryder H., Aston D. L. Childhood leukaemia in the West Berkshire and Basingstoke and North Hampshire District Health Authorities in relation to nuclear establishments in the vicinity. Br Med J (Clin Res Ed) 1987 Mar 7;294(6572):597–602. doi: 10.1136/bmj.294.6572.597. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  20. Stone R. A. Investigations of excess environmental risks around putative sources: statistical problems and a proposed test. Stat Med. 1988 Jun;7(6):649–660. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780070604. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  21. Urquhart J. D., Black R. J., Muirhead M. J., Sharp L., Maxwell M., Eden O. B., Jones D. A. Case-control study of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in children in Caithness near the Dounreay nuclear installation. BMJ. 1991 Mar 23;302(6778):687–692. doi: 10.1136/bmj.302.6778.687. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Articles from Occupational and Environmental Medicine are provided here courtesy of BMJ Publishing Group

RESOURCES