Table 3.
The deaths cases and ASDR of AF/AFL in 1990 and 2021, and its temporal trends from 1990 to 2021, by sex, SDI quintile, and GBD region
| Characteristics | Number of deaths cases in 1990 | ASDR per 100 000 (95% UI) | Number of deaths cases in 2021 | ASDR per 100 000 (95% UI) | 1990–2021 EAPC (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | 114 540 (101 326–127 155) | 4.24 (3.69–4.71) | 338 947 (288 954–368 613) | 4.36 (3.69–4.75) | 0.1 (0.06–0.13) |
| Sex | |||||
| Female | 71 862 (63 274–81 196) | 4.25 (3.66–4.79) | 204 247 (167 703–228 405) | 4.29 (3.53–4.8) | 0.02 (−0.02 to 0.06) |
| Male | 42 677 (37 233–46 516) | 4.2 (3.65–4.59) | 134 700 (120 296–145 862) | 4.44 (3.94–4.81) | 0.21 (0.18–0.24) |
| Age | |||||
| 30–34 years | 69 (57–82) | 0.02 (0.01–0.02) | 115 (99–131) | 0.02 (0.02–0.02) | 0.19 (0.1–0.28) |
| 35–39 years | 100 (86–119) | 0.03 (0.02–0.03) | 175 (155–194) | 0.03 (0.03–0.03) | 0.26 (0.19–0.34) |
| 40–44 years | 249 (215–293) | 0.09 (0.07–0.1) | 458 (408–506) | 0.09 (0.08–0.1) | −0.01 (−0.09 to 0.08) |
| 45–49 years | 555 (476–653) | 0.24 (0.2–0.28) | 1089 (965–1202) | 0.23 (0.2–0.25) | −0.17 (−0.22 to 0.13) |
| 50–54 years | 1229 (1059–1438) | 0.58 (0.5–0.68) | 2396 (2128–2605) | 0.54 (0.48–0.59) | −0.27 (−0.32 to 0.23) |
| 55–59 years | 2322 (2012–2716) | 1.25 (1.09–1.47) | 4777 (4243–5259) | 1.21 (1.07–1.33) | −0.15 (−0.2 to 0.11) |
| 60–64 years | 3981 (3510–4608) | 2.48 (2.19–2.87) | 7691 (6941–8219) | 2.4 (2.17–2.57) | −0.15 (−0.19 to 0.12) |
| 65–69 years | 5853 (5239–6650) | 4.73 (4.24–5.38) | 12 516 (11 315–13 448) | 4.54 (4.1–4.88) | −0.17 (−0.21 to 0.12) |
| 70–74 years | 9667 (8623–10 986) | 11.42 (10.19–12.98) | 23 527 (21 468–25 286) | 11.43 (10.43–12.28) | −0.1 (−0.16 to 0.04) |
| 75–79 years | 16 700 (15 216–18 461) | 27.13 (24.72–29.99) | 34 926 (30 951–37 685) | 26.48 (23.47–28.57) | −0.06 (−0.1 to 0.02) |
| 80–84 years | 26 568 (23 684–29 178) | 75.1 (66.95–82.48) | 66 389 (57 921–71 821) | 75.8 (66.13–82) | 0.03 (−0.01 to 0.08) |
| 85–89 years | 25 172 (21 746–27 799) | 166.58 (143.9–183.96) | 78 629 (65 155–86 580) | 171.97 (142.5–189.36) | 0.16 (0.11–0.22) |
| 90–94 years | 16 532 (13 631–18 384) | 385.8 (318.11–429) | 73 759 (57 832–82 367) | 412.31 (323.28–460.42) | 0.23 (0.18–0.28) |
| 95+ years | 5543 (4299–6275) | 544.41 (422.26–616.37) | 32 499 (24 353–37 046) | 596.28 (446.81–679.71) | 0.22 (0.11–0.33) |
| SDI region | |||||
| High SDI | 50 188 (44 165–53 072) | 4.74 (4.14–5.03) | 125 622 (103 230–137 669) | 4.66 (3.88–5.08) | −0.01 (−0.06 to 0.04) |
| High-middle SDI | 28 089 (25 067–30 559) | 4.23 (3.69–4.63) | 79 214 (67 067–88 012) | 4.29 (3.62–4.77) | 0.08 (0.03–0.13) |
| Middle SDI | 22 063 (19 086–25 973) | 4.18 (3.6–4.92) | 83 853 (70 992–94 818) | 4.26 (3.57–4.83) | −0.06 (−0.13 to 0.02) |
| Low-middle SDI | 10 458 (7579–14 095) | 3.07 (2.26–4.06) | 39 263 (32 069–46 278) | 4.08 (3.34–4.81) | 1 (0.91–1.08) |
| Low SDI | 3568 (2077–5030) | 3.05 (1.79–4.32) | 10 623 (7284–13 876) | 3.74 (2.57–4.9) | 0.87 (0.63–1.12) |
| GBD region | |||||
| Africa | 5652 (4045–7088) | 3.8 (2.75–4.78) | 14 580 (11 839–17 231) | 4.12 (3.32–4.8) | 0.21 (0.16–0.27) |
| African Region | 4569 (3226–5801) | 3.92 (2.81–4.97) | 11 578 (9298–13 913) | 4.19 (3.38–4.96) | 0.13 (0.07–0.18) |
| America | 23 026 (20 355–24 387) | 4.18 (3.66–4.44) | 68 568 (57 542–74 531) | 4.84 (4.08–5.25) | 0.47 (0.41–0.53) |
| Andean Latin America | 740 (634–855) | 4.61 (3.97–5.3) | 2079 (1699–2494) | 3.81 (3.11–4.57) | −0.78 (−0.94 to 0.61) |
| Asia | 39 389 (32 588–48 147) | 3.64 (3.02–4.47) | 153 470 (127 841–172 464) | 3.84 (3.16–4.33) | 0.03 (−0.03 to 0.1) |
| Australasia | 1436 (1281–1525) | 6.99 (6.16–7.45) | 4337 (3529–4789) | 6.58 (5.39–7.25) | 0 (−0.14 to 0.14) |
| Advanced Health System | 67 929 (60 972–71 579) | 4.57 (4.06–4.84) | 165 406 (137 851–180 403) | 4.6 (3.88–5) | 0.07 (0.03–0.12) |
| Basic Health System | 33 124 (28 509–38 269) | 4.33 (3.68–5.03) | 122 234 (102 435–139 362) | 4.35 (3.61–4.98) | −0.08 (−0.19 to 0.03) |
| Caribbean | 1098 (985–1194) | 5.59 (4.99–6.07) | 2731 (2349–3048) | 4.86 (4.2–5.42) | −0.42 (−0.51 to 0.33) |
| Central Africa | 575 (375–790) | 4.09 (2.67–5.61) | 1542 (1090–2153) | 4.55 (3.32–6.28) | 0.24 (0.11–0.37) |
| Central Asia | 684 (596–799) | 1.87 (1.61–2.2) | 1386 (1241–1519) | 2.37 (2.09–2.6) | 0.69 (0.43–0.95) |
| Central Europe | 5931 (5508–6253) | 5.1 (4.66–5.4) | 11 104 (9859–11 914) | 4.55 (4.03–4.88) | −0.21 (−0.41 to 0.02) |
| Central Latin America | 2816 (2613–2927) | 4.98 (4.56–5.21) | 10 354 (8980–11 386) | 4.55 (3.95–5.01) | −0.32 (−0.38 to 0.26) |
| Central Sub-Saharan Africa | 439 (278–633) | 4.11 (2.55–5.93) | 1311 (886–1982) | 4.67 (3.16–7.09) | 0.36 (0.19–0.54) |
| Commonwealth High Income | 8202 (7359–8624) | 5.56 (4.94–5.86) | 17 978 (15 000–19 477) | 5.4 (4.53–5.84) | 0 (−0.06 to 0.07) |
| Commonwealth Low Income | 1720 (965–2432) | 3.21 (1.8–4.54) | 6349 (4515–8689) | 4.49 (3.23–6.08) | 0.89 (0.7–1.09) |
| Commonwealth Middle Income | 9113 (6198–13 056) | 2.69 (1.9–3.82) | 37 601 (29 266–45 758) | 3.68 (2.88–4.47) | 1.17 (0.98–1.36) |
| East Asia | 17 272(14 013–21 292) | 4.94 (3.92–6.07) | 67 666 (54 232–80 814) | 4.3 (3.42–5.18) | −0.63 (−0.8 to 0.45) |
| East Asia and Pacific—WB | 29 677 (25 385–34 949) | 4.24 (3.54–4.98) | 110 820 (90 873–127 792) | 3.87 (3.16–4.48) | −0.51 (−0.6 to 0.41) |
| Eastern Africa | 1188 (679–1622) | 3.18 (1.86–4.4) | 2975 (1963–4164) | 3.21 (2.11–4.47) | −0.05 (−0.18 to 0.07) |
| Eastern Europe | 8133 (7308–8953) | 3.87 (3.44–4.3) | 15 697 (14 042–17 056) | 4.33 (3.87–4.71) | 0.26 (0.15–0.37) |
| Eastern Mediterranean Region | 3361 (2447–4411) | 3.19 (2.3–4.19) | 10 321 (8504–11 781) | 3.94 (3.21–4.51) | 0.63 (0.58–0.69) |
| Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa | 1263 (687–1765) | 3.17 (1.73–4.55) | 3166 (1927–4731) | 3.28 (1.97–4.89) | 0.06 (−0.08 to 0.2) |
| Europe | 46 117 (41 923–48 556) | 5 (4.48–5.29) | 101 544 (85 514–110 332) | 5.15 (4.37–5.58) | 0.27 (0.21–0.33) |
| Europe and Central Asia—WB | 46 446 (42 163–48 945) | 4.91 (4.4–5.21) | 102 125 (86 140–110 922) | 5.1 (4.33–5.52) | 0.29 (0.23–0.35) |
| European Region | 46 783 (42 474–49 297) | 4.92 (4.4–5.22) | 103 043 (86 887–111 924) | 5.1 (4.33–5.52) | 0.29 (0.23–0.35) |
| High-income Asia Pacific | 5018 (4465–5373) | 3.06 (2.68–3.3) | 17 112 (13 415–19 331) | 2.46 (2.01–2.74) | −1.27 (−1.61 to 0.93) |
| High-income North America | 14 544 (12 556–15 549) | 3.96 (3.41–4.24) | 39 066 (32 116–42 759) | 5.15 (4.27–5.61) | 0.79 (0.72–0.87) |
| Latin America and Caribbean—WB | 8658 (7910–9088) | 4.72 (4.25–4.98) | 29 903 (25 705–32 529) | 4.48 (3.85–4.87) | −0.09 (−0.13 to 0.04) |
| Limited Health System | 12 263 (8105–17 445) | 2.88 (1.93–4.04) | 48 384 (37 312–59 001) | 3.82 (2.96–4.66) | 1.02 (0.85–1.18) |
| Middle East and North Africa—WB | 2546 (2017–3076) | 3.73 (2.88–4.5) | 8457 (6919–9558) | 4.04 (3.24–4.58) | 0.3 (0.26–0.34) |
| Minimal Health System | 1049 (625–1451) | 3.35 (2.01–4.62) | 2551 (1722–3516) | 3.97 (2.76–5.34) | 0.61 (0.55–0.67) |
| North Africa and Middle East | 3374 (2613–4241) | 3.5 (2.68–4.4) | 11 182 (9280–12 594) | 3.92 (3.19–4.44) | 0.53 (0.34–0.72) |
| North America | 14 545 (12 557–15 550) | 3.96 (3.41–4.24) | 39 069 (32 118–42 762) | 5.15 (4.27–5.61) | 0.79 (0.72–0.87) |
| Northern Africa | 1167 (874–1427) | 3.69 (2.65–4.57) | 3723 (2940–4423) | 4.44 (3.43–5.3) | 0.85 (0.76–0.93) |
| Oceania | 65 (44–82) | 4.48 (3.27–5.61) | 185 (132–238) | 4.29 (3.16–5.46) | −0.19 (−0.25 to 0.13) |
| Region of the Americas | 23 026 (20 355–24 387) | 4.18 (3.66–4.44) | 68 568 (57 542–74 531) | 4.84 (4.08–5.25) | 0.47 (0.41–0.53) |
| South-East Asia Region | 10 804 (7589–15 336) | 2.94 (2.11–4.14) | 48 708 (38 887–57 346) | 4.06 (3.24–4.76) | 1.12 (0.98–1.26) |
| South Asia | 7594 (4655–11 542) | 2.38 (1.46–3.62) | 36 165 (27 041–46 073) | 3.69 (2.75–4.71) | 1.58 (1.38–1.78) |
| South Asia—WB | 7917 (4944–11 954) | 2.41 (1.51–3.64) | 37 131 (27 937–46 998) | 3.69 (2.78–4.7) | 1.56 (1.36–1.75) |
| Southeast Asia | 6120 (5116–7566) | 4.24 (3.5–5.3) | 22 401 (18 974–25 759) | 5.27 (4.39–6.12) | 0.61 (0.49–0.74) |
| Southern Africa | 800 (606–981) | 3.03 (2.32–3.75) | 2285 (1893–2648) | 4.17 (3.49–4.69) | 1.05 (0.86–1.24) |
| Southern Latin America | 1317 (1195–1407) | 3.61 (3.22–3.88) | 3299 (2853–3562) | 3.53 (3.06–3.81) | 0.74 (0.38–1.11) |
| Southern Sub-Saharan Africa | 511 (417–626) | 2.82 (2.26–3.48) | 1413 (1228–1551) | 4 (3.39–4.44) | 1.14 (0.82–1.46) |
| Sub-Saharan Africa—WB | 4511 (3165–5765) | 3.83 (2.73–4.89) | 10 920 (8703–13 237) | 4.02 (3.21–4.81) | 0.03 (−0.04 to 0.1) |
| Tropical Latin America | 2727 (2419–2896) | 4.99 (4.29–5.36) | 11 540 (9640–12 679) | 4.86 (4.05–5.34) | −0.12 (−0.21 to 0.03) |
| Western Africa | 1923 (1442–2486) | 4.54 (3.41–5.87) | 4054 (3231–4671) | 4.42 (3.57–5.06) | −0.3 (−0.4 to 0.21) |
| Western Europe | 31 335 (27 682–33 261) | 5.43 (4.75–5.77) | 72 184 (58 846–79 292) | 5.52 (4.56–6.04) | 0.31 (0.24–0.38) |
| Western Pacific Region | 25 237 (21 449–29 624) | 4.2 (3.49–4.9) | 94 170 (76 497–109 529) | 3.71 (3–4.33) | −0.61 (−0.7 to 0.51) |
| Western Sub-Saharan Africa | 2121 (1585–2724) | 4.51 (3.37–5.78) | 4568 (3662–5235) | 4.46 (3.65–5.13) | −0.23 (−0.32 to 0.14) |
| World Bank High Income | 58 610 (51 826–61 993) | 4.74 (4.16–5.04) | 146 131 (119 839–160 027) | 4.7 (3.9–5.12) | 0.04 (0–0.09) |
| World Bank Low Income | 2540 (1612–3365) | 3.41 (2.17–4.45) | 6431 (4676–8594) | 3.47 (2.55–4.65) | 0.09 (−0.01 to 0.2) |
| World Bank Lower Middle Income | 18 921 (14 539–24 851) | 3.25 (2.54–4.23) | 68 467 (56 967–78 231) | 4.29 (3.55–4.91) | 0.94 (0.85–1.03) |
| World Bank Upper Middle Income | 34 293 (29 814–39 106) | 4.23 (3.62–4.81) | 117 545 (97 795–133 528) | 4.12 (3.41–4.7) | −0.19 (−0.29 to 0.1) |
ASDR, age-standardized death rate; CI, confidence interval; EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; SDI, socio-demographic index; UI, uncertainty interval.