Scotland is experiencing its worst influenza outbreak for at least six years, but it is not expected to reach the level at which it would be officially declared an epidemic.
Figures released at the beginning of this week show that rates in some areas are at epidemic levels, but epidemiologists believe the outbreak is at or near its peak and will start decreasing soon. Scotland declares an epidemic when cases reach 1000 per 100000 population—a higher level than in England because different systems are used to count flu cases.
The latest figures show that Scotland has a rate of 793 per 100000 population—up from 597 the previous week. The outbreak has placed enormous pressure on hospitals, with several forced to close to all but emergency cases.
Last week all intensive care beds in Scotland were occupied and emergency admissions to hospital hit record levels, with rates in the Edinburgh area 50%higher than normal for this time of year.
The Scottish health minister, Susan Deacon, said that the NHS was experiencing exceptional pressures but the system was coping due to the dedication of staff and forward planning.
The minister has been criticised, however, for not mounting a publicity campaign similar to one in England that advised patients on winter problems.
GPs have also complained about a lack of resources to carry out an effective immunisation programme. Dr John Garner, the chairman of the BMA's Scottish council, said that the NHS would not have been stretched so badly if doctors had been given the funds to carry out a full vaccination programme.
The BMA, the Royal College of Nursing, and the Scottish Pharmaceutical Federation have joined together to call on the Scottish Executive to establish a winter pressures working group.