Abstract
AIMS
To develop non-linear machine learning models using the XGBoost algorithm to predict a continuous (overall survival (OS) and a binary survival outcome (OS > 5 years) using clinical, molecular and genetic, and radiomic data.
METHOD
Patients with LGGs treated at a single institution (2005-2020) with histology and MRIs at the time of malignant transformation (MT) were retrospectively included in this study. MRIs underwent in-house tumour segmentation pipeline with radiomic feature extraction of whole-tumour, enhancing, non-enhancing and oedema components, and masked disconnectome map components. Patients were split into training and testing sets for the development of the survival models, which were assessed with mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) for the prediction of OS; and receiver operating characteristics analysis for the prediction of OS > 5 years.
RESULTS
Of 553 patients, 415 patients were included in the training set and 138 patients in the testing set. The XGB Regressor model was able to predict overall survival (OS) from the time of malignant transformation (tMRI) with an MAE of 953 days (RMSE: 1163 days). The XGB Classifier model was able to predict the probability of OS > 5 years from tMRI with an accuracy of 64% (sensitivity: 58%, specificity: 70%). Age, IDH1 mutation, 1p/19q co- deletion, regularity of tumour shape, and disconnectome-related perilesional components were most predictive of survival outcome.
CONCLUSION
This study has investigated the predictive capabilities of clinical, molecular and genetic, and radiomic data to develop survival analysis models, using XGBoost, to predict OS and OS > 5 years in patients with LGG at tMRI. We corroborate previous findings that age, 1p/19q co-deletion and IDH1 mutation are positive prognosticators for survival. However, further investigation into the radiomics of the disconnectome, especially of the perilesional oedema compartment, presents an intriguing and novel avenue for survival analysis of patients with LGG.