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. 2025 Feb 1;15:4004. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-83442-z

HIV/AIDS and HBV co-infection with optimal control strategies and cost-effectiveness analyses using integer order model

Shewafera Wondimagegnhu Teklu 1,, Abushet Hayalu Workie 1
PMCID: PMC11787397  PMID: 39893239

Abstract

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and HIV/AIDS co-infection is a common infectious disease that has been spreading through different nations in the world. The main objective of the study is to minimize the number of HBV and HIV co-infected individuals in the community and the cost incurred to the effort applied towards protection and treatment control strategies. In this study, a novel HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model has been formulated and analyzed to investigate the effects of protection and treatment control strategies on the spreading dynamics of the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection in the community. In the qualitative analyses we have computed all the models disease-free equilibrium points, all the models effective reproduction numbers and unique endemic equilibrium points, we have proved the two sub-models disease-free equilibrium points are locally as well as globally asymptotically stable whenever their associated effective reproduction numbers are less than one. In our understanding no one is formulated and analyzed the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model with optimal control and cost-effective analyses so that we have formulated the associated optimal control problem and carried out the optimal control analysis on the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model by implementing the Pontryagin’s minimum principle. Numerical simulations with various combinations of the control efforts implemented are then carried out to investigate the impacts of protection and treatments to tackle the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection diseases spreading in the community. Finally, we also carried out cost-effectiveness analysis for the implemented control strategies. From the findings of the numerical simulations we observed that implementing all the proposed controlling strategies simultaneously has fundamental impact to minimize and control the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection spreading in the community but cost-effectiveness analysis proved that implemented strategy 4 (implemented the HIV protection and HBV treatment controls simultaneously) is the most cost-effective strategy as compared with all other implemented strategies and we recommend for the health stake holders and policy makers to implement this strategy to tackle the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection spreading problem in the community.

Keywords: HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection, Protection, Treatment, Optimal control, Cost-effective analysis

Subject terms: Computational biology and bioinformatics, Mathematics and computing

Introduction

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a contagious viral disease that highly influencing the normal work of individuals’ liver1 and about two billions individuals throughout the world infected with HBV epidemic among which chronic HBV affects more than 350 million individuals throughout nations in the world26. Since 1990 the mortality rate of viral hepatitis has been increased by 63% and now it is ranked as the seventh leading cause of death and millions of people have been died with chronic HBV stages (liver cirrhosis and cancer) and it spreads through direct contact and indirect transmission like through blood contact or during birth1,2. The two most common stages of HBV disease are acute and chronic hepatitis stages7. Through the first 180 days after individuals exposed to the hepatitis B virus their immune system may be able to remove the HBV virus and resulting in a complete recovery. However, sometimes the HBV infection may progress to the chronic HBV infection stage7. It is a blood-borne infectious disease and its modes of spreading includes vertical transmission (from mother to child during birth), sexual contact, drug injections, needles sharing and sharp instruments sharing. There is no well-known treatment intervention for acute hepatitis B, but, the chronic hepatitis B infection can be treated by nucleotide analogues (NAS) and pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN)1.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) one of the major lives threatening retrovirus spreading throughout the world and is the main the cause of a highly infectious called acquired deficiency syndrome (AIDS)811. HIV/AIDS has been remained the most common cause for worldwide health and economic problem and since 1981 it has been declared as a global pandemic and one of the most destructive epidemic diseases through history10,11. Approximately 70 million people throughout nations in the world have been affected by this infectious disease8. According to UNAIDS report in 2016, 36.7 million individuals were living with HIV/AIDS and more than two thirds of those individuals in the world is living in sub-Saharan African countries9,11. The most common infection stages of HIV are acute, dormancy and AIDS stages12. HIV/AIDS can be transmitted from an infected individual to a healthy individual through direct or indirect transmission and its possible control measures are preventive measures and treatment regimens11. Until today there is no vaccine, and there are many obstacles in the AIDS treatment (antiretroviral therapy or ART), but recently, the most prevalent treatment strategy for HIV infected individuals is highly active antiretroviral therapies (HAART), which can prolong the life spans and improve their life quality of individuals10.

A co-infection is the co-existence of two or more pathogens (infections) on a single individual at the population level9. HIV/AIDS and HBV are the most common viral infectious diseases and since they have the same modes of transmission the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection disease is common in various nations of the world2,13,14. More than 10% of individuals infected with HIV/AIDS have been reported as chronically infected with HBV and the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection highly increases the risk for liver related morbidity and mortality as compared with the HIV mono-infection1,15,16. HIV/AIDS infection continues to be one of the most common public health problems with additional risk of HCV and/or HBV co-infection and also the chronic HBV infection prevalence with HIV infection is 6–14%3,13,17. On the other hand, the interactions between two infectious diseases specially the HBV and HIV/AIDS have a negative impact on the community and become a worldwide concern now a day2.

Mathematical modeling is the process of representing real world situations in mathematical terms and expressions and it has been used extensively in studying the behavior of infectious diseases, including their co-infections2. From the various branches of mathematical modeling one can motivate to study about eco-epidemiological, ecological, and epidemiological modeling. Epidemiological modeling is the study of the infectious diseases transmission dynamics at the population level and it plays a crucial role in the study of transmission dynamics such as HBV and HIV infectious diseases18. Nowadays, mathematical model formulations of real world situations with optimal control strategies play a fundamental role in showcasing the impacts and effectiveness of different optimal control intervention strategies19. Various researchers have constructed and analyzed autonomous compartmental mathematical models with either integer order derivatives see the works of2028 or fractional order derivatives see the works of2937 to investigate the spreading dynamics of different single infection or co-infection infectious diseases throughout different nations in the world. Jan, Rashid et al.29 formulated and analyzed the dynamical behavior and chaotic phenomena of HIV infection through fractional order derivative mainly with Atangana–Baleanu derivative in the Caputo sense to investigate the dynamics of CD4 + T-cells in HIV infection. Huo et al.10 investigated the stability of an HIV/AIDS treatment model with different HIV infection stages. The final results of the model analysis reveals that early HIV infection stage treatment for people in asymptomatic HIV infection stage or the pre-AIDS stage is very crucial to tackle the HIV/AIDS spreading in the community. O. Omondi, et al.11 formulated and analyzed a sex-structured population HIV infection model using real data from Kenya. The result showed that prevention of HIV infection still remain the most fundamental to tackle its spread and ART treatment is also crucial to minimize the transmission dynamics in the community. Malede Atnaw Belay et al.1 formulated and analyzed a compartmental model on the spreading dynamics of Hepatitis B disease with optimal control and cost-effectiveness. The finding verified that the use of prevention control efforts is the most cost benefit strategy to minimize the HBV spreading in the community. Bowong et al.3 formulated and presented the HBV and HIV co-infection deterministic model and they carried out numerical simulations for the full co-infected model to verify the analytical results. The model formulation did not consider optimal control strategies and cost effectiveness analysis. Awoke, T. D., and M. K. Semu38 formulated a TB and HIV co-infection model with optimal control theory in the presence of behavior modification. They investigated the optimal impacts of their proposed control strategies and from their cost effectiveness analysis results they found that the treatment control measure is more effective than the preventive control strategies. Endashaw, E. E., & Mekonnen, T. T39 investigated the impacts of HBV vaccination and HBV and HIV treatments on the spreading dynamics of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection. Their findings revealed that implementing HBV vaccination, HBV, HIV/AIDS and HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection treatments at the optimal possible rate is recommended to control the transmission of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection in the community. Endashaw et al.40 modified the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model39 by incorporated the vertical transmission i.e., transmission from mother to child and medical interventions. From the findings of the numerical simulations increasing the HBV and HIV mother to child vertical transmission rates exacerbated the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection. Omame et al.26 investigated the impacts of optimal strategies on the control of the co-circulation of COVID-19, Dengue and HIV using mathematical model. Din et al.25 formulated and analyzed HBV and COVID-19 co-infection model using stochastic approach COVIID-19 co-infection model in resource limitation settings.

However, to the best of our knowledge, no one has formulated and analyzed the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection compartmental model by considering stages of HIV infection with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, the results of the study will contribute to the existing body of knowledge on the spreading dynamics of HVB and HIV/AIDS co-infection in the community. It will also assist public health care authorities and the government to determine the most effective allocation of limited resources for protections, and treatments control strategies to minimize the co-infection cases. Thus, in this study, we formulated and analyzed a compartmental model on the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection spreading dynamics with optimal control strategies and cost-effectiveness analysis where its main objective is to investigate the impacts of the proposed optimal control strategies and the cost benefit of the implemented control strategies on the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection spreading dynamics in the community. Motivated by the reviewed papers biological and mathematical aspects we need to formulate analyze the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model with optimal control strategies and cost-effectiveness.

The remaining sections of this study have been structured as: the second section formulates a nine compartmental model of the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection spreading dynamics with proofs of positivity and boundedness of its solutions, the third, fourth and the fifth sections qualitatively analyzed all the models, the optimal control problem, sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations respectively, section six investigated cost-effectiveness analysis and Sect. 7 gives the discussion, conclusion and future directions of the study respectively.

The HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model construction

Descriptions

In this section, to construct the HBV and HIV-infection stages co-infection integer order model we partitioned the total number of human population at a given time t denoted by Inline graphic into nine mutually exclusive compartments according to the infection status of individuals: susceptible individuals to either HBV or HIV infection denoted by (Inline graphic, protected individuals against both HBV and HIV infections denoted by Inline graphic, HBV infected individuals denoted by Inline graphic, HIV infected individuals denoted by Inline graphic AIDS patients are denoted by Inline graphic, HVB and HIV co-infected individuals denoted by Inline graphic, HBV and AIDS co-infected individuals denoted by Inline graphic, HBV infected treated individuals denoted by Inline graphic and HIV treated individuals, HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected treated individuals, and HBV and AIDS co-infected treated individuals denoted by (Inline graphic such that

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ1.gif 1

According to their epidemiological definitions both HBV and HIV are chronic infectious diseases and hence individuals who are at risk (or susceptible) to either HBV are HIV infection acquire HBV and HIV infection at the force of infection rate represented respectively as:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ2.gif 2
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ3.gif 3

where the constants given by Inline graphic and Inline graphic are the parameters that modify the degree of infectiousness with the HBV and HIV co-infected individuals, and the HBV and AIDS co-infected individuals respectively, the constants given by Inline graphic, Inline graphic and Inline graphic are the parameters that modify the degree of infectiousness with AIDS patients, the HBV and HIV co-infected individuals, and the HBV and AIDS co-infected individuals with HBV and HIV infections respectively and the parameters represented by Inline graphic and, Inline graphic are the spreading rates of HBV and HIV infected individuals respectively.

In addition to the above descriptions we have the following model assumptions, the model state variables definitions, and the parameter interpretations respectably.

Model assumptions

  • Individuals in each compartment are homogeneously mixed.

  • All the HIV, the HBV and the co-infected individuals are aware of their infection status and do not involve in the transmission process (they do not transmit their infection to others).

  • Individuals in each compartment are subjected to natural mortality rate.

  • The total human population is not constant.

  • There is no vertical transmission for both infections.

  • There is no simultaneous dual-infection transmission.

  • The HBV and HIV protections are not 100% effective.

  • There is permanent HBV infection.

  • There are interactions between the two infections.

  • To protect individuals against HBV and HIV infections, we incorporate sexual abstinence, one mate relationship with an uninfected partner, and using condom.

  • We assume treatment of the chronic hepatitis B infection by nucleotide analogues (NAS) and pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN).

  • We incorporate the HIV treatment (antiretroviral therapy or ART).

Model state variables definitions

Model parameters interpretations

Flow chart of the co-infection model (4)

Based on the model descriptions described in the Section "descriptions", the model assumptions described in the Section "Model assumptions", the state variable definitions illustrated in the Section "Model state variables definitions" (Table 1), and the interpretations of parameters stated in the Section "Model parameters interpretations" (Table 2) the HBV and HIV co-infection transmission dynamics flow chart is represented by Fig. 1 below.

Table 1.

The definitions of the co-infection model state variables.

Variables Definitions
Inline graphic The total number of susceptible individuals
Inline graphic The total number of protected individuals from both HBV and HIV infections
Inline graphic The total number of HIV infected individuals
Inline graphic The total number of AIDS patients
Inline graphic The total number of HBV infected individuals
Inline graphic The total number of HBV and HIV co-infected individuals
Inline graphic The total number of HBV and AIDS co-infected individuals
Inline graphic The total number of HBV infected treated individuals
Inline graphic The total number of HIV infected, AIDS patients, and co-infected treated individuals

Table 2.

Interpretations of the proposed model parameters.

Interpretations Biological interpretation Values References
Inline graphic Natural death rate of individual 0.01 12
Inline graphic Recruitment rate of individuals 250 41
Inline graphic The portion of HBV or/and HIV protection 0.006 42
Inline graphic Protection losing rate 0.59 43
Inline graphic Modification parameter 1.2 Assume
Inline graphic Modification parameter 1.1 Assume
Inline graphic Modification parameter 1.2 Assume
Inline graphic Modification parameter 1.1 Assume
Inline graphic Death rate by HBV infection 0.1 40
Inline graphic Death rate by HIV infection 0.333 8
Inline graphic Death rate by AIDS 0.333 9
Inline graphic Death rate by HBV and HIV co-infection 0.01 39
Inline graphic Death rate by HBV and AIDS co-infection 0.02 Assume
Inline graphic Re-infection rate of HBV treated individuals 0.2 Assume
Inline graphic HBV infection treatment rate 0.3 40
Inline graphic HBV infection spreading rate 0.3425 44
Inline graphic HIV infection spreading rate 0.04 40
Inline graphic HIV infection treatment rate 0.3 39
Inline graphic AIDS patients treatment rate 0.13 9
Inline graphic HBV and HIV co-infected treatment rate 0.015 39
Inline graphic HBV and AIDS co-infected treatment rate 0.012 Assume
Inline graphic Progression rate from HIV infection to AIDS patients 0.08 9
Inline graphic Progression rate of co-infections 0.09 Assume

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

The flow chart of the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection dynamics where Inline graphic and Inline graphic are stated in Eqs. (2) and (3) respectively.

The HBV and HIV/AIDS Co-infection Model Using the model flow chart represented by Fig. 1 the HBV and HIV co-infection dynamical system (model) is represented by the systems of differential equations illustrated by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equa.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equb.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equc.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equd.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ4.gif 4
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Eque.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equf.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equg.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equh.gif

where the initial population is quantified as Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic,Inline graphic, and Inline graphic.

Non-negativity and boundedness of the co-infection model solutions

Each state variables of the co-infection dynamical system (4) represents human population; therefore it is necessary to prove that all are non-negative and bounded.

Theorem 1

The proposed HBV and HIV co-infection dynamical system (4) solutions are non-negative, unique, and bounded in the region represented by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ5.gif 5

Proof

Every function in the right-hand side of HBV and HIV co-infection dynamical system (4) are Inline graphic on Inline graphic Hence, by the Picard–Lindel Inline graphic f theorem the model Inline graphic has a unique solution. Let the system of differential equations in Inline graphic be written in the form Inline graphic where Inline graphic and Inline graphic is the right hand sides of the model Inline graphic Based on the Picard–Lindel Inline graphic f theorem the functions Inline graphic has the property illustrated by.

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ6.gif 6

where Inline graphic and Inline graphic. Because there exists a unique solution for the dynamical system (4), it follows that Inline graphic for all Inline graphic, whenever Inline graphic. The rate of change of number of total population.

Inline graphic is governed by the equation given by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ7.gif 7

Using the total differential equation described by (7) and applying the Comparison theorem used in45 we have computed the result for Inline graphic determined by Inline graphic. Thus, for the initial population illustrated in Eq. (4) with the property Inline graphic, we have determined the final result represented by Inline graphic. Therefore, the solution of the HBV and HIV co-infection model described in (4) exists, unique, and bounded in a feasible region Inline graphic.

Analysis of the models without optimal control strategies

In this section, the dynamical behaviors of the HBV and HIV co-infection model (4) without control strategies are investigated. The HBV-only sub-model, the HIV-only sub-model as well as the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection dynamical system shall be investigated respectively.

The HBV-only sub-model analysis

Since the proposed HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model is highly complex and non-linear, some rigorous analyses, that may not be feasible in mathematically aspects for the co-infection model (4), and here we assume there is no HIV/AIDS diseases ( hence no interactions between the two diseases). Thus, the HBV sub-model is determined whenever the HIV disease is not an issue in the community, that is, when Inline graphic, and is represented by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equi.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equj.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ8.gif 8
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equk.gif

where the initial population is quantified as Inline graphic, B Inline graphic, and Inline graphic, and HBV-only force of infection is described as.

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ9.gif 9

where Inline graphic

The HBV-only sub-model will be analyzed in the feasible region represented by:

Inline graphic. Using the same criteria we have applied to prove Theorem 1,Inline graphic can be proved it is positively invariant.

Disease-free equilibrium point

Disease-free equilibrium point refers to a scenario in which the HBV infection is not present in a population. The disease-free equilibrium point of the HBV-only sub-model (8) is obtained by setting each of the dynamical system (8) to zero and hence the HBV-only sub-model (8) disease-free equilibrium point is calculated and is represented by Inline graphic

The HBV-only sub-model effective reproduction number

The HBV-only sub-model (8) effective reproduction number (the threshold quantity represented by Inline graphic) is the mean number of secondary infected individuals produced by a typical infected individual who is living in a community where some of them are susceptible and others are non-susceptible due to some protection strategies in his entire life9. Let us apply the next generation matrix operator criteria stated in46, and suppose Inline graphic represent the rate at which individuals entering into the compartment i, Inline graphic represent the rate at which individuals leave the compartment i, and Inline graphic represent the rate at which new infectious arise in compartment i. Thus,Inline graphic, Inline graphic and Inline graphic, where Inline graphic and Inline graphic are Inline graphic matrix with Inline graphic is the number of infected compartments. Then the spectral radius of the next generation matrix Inline graphic is the required HBV-only sub-model effective reproduction number (Inline graphic). Applying the same criteria used by37 and after some calculations we have computed the final results described by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equl.gif

And

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ10.gif 10

Thus, using the result described in (10), the effective reproduction number of the HBV-only sub-model (8) is represented by Inline graphic

Next, we investigate both the local and global asymptotic stability of the HBV-only disease-free equilibrium point for the HBV-only sub-model (8), to examine whether there is small perturbations away from the disease-free equilibrium point will going up or going down through time.

Theorem 2

The HBV-only sub-model (8) disease-free equilibrium point denoted by Inline graphic is locally asymptotically stable if Inline graphic and unstable if Inline graphic.

Proof

The HBV-only sub-model (8) Jacobian matrix at the corresponding disease-free equilibrium point Inline graphic is calculated and represented by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equm.gif

The characteristics equation for the corresponding Jacobian matrix Inline graphic is computed as:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ11.gif 11

where

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equn.gif

And

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equo.gif

The first two factors of the characteristics equation described in (11) are linear factors represent the associated eigenvalues computed as Inline graphic, and Inline graphic. Applying the Routh-Hurwitz stability conditions every root of the quadratic equation Inline graphic has negative real part. Thus, each of the eigenvalue for the corresponding Jacobian matrix Inline graphic has negative real part and hence the HBV-only sub-model disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable if Inline graphic and unstable if Inline graphic

Note: The HBV-only sub-model (8) disease-free equilibrium point is represented by Inline graphic is locally asymptotically stable whenever its effective reproduction is less than unity means that the solutions of the dynamical system (8) with the given initial population values close to this disease-free equilibrium point remain close to the equilibrium and approach the equilibrium as time increases. It also means that the disease-free local stability concerns only for the close neighborhood of the disease-free equilibrium point. In other words the HBV disease-free equilibrium point Inline graphic is locally stable implies that a small number of HBV infected individuals is introduced in to the community then after some time the system will return to the disease-free equilibrium point. Biologically, the local asymptotic stability implies that the HBV infection can be eliminated from the community whenever Inline graphic which is only true if the initial sizes of the sub-population of the HBV sub-model are in the basin of attraction of Inline graphic.

Based on the study47, the two most commonly used sufficient conditions that guarantee the HBV-only sub-model disease-free equilibrium point global stability are written as in the form:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equp.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ12.gif 12
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equq.gif

where Inline graphic represents the number of individuals who are HBV uninfected and Inline graphic represents the number of individuals who are HBV infected. Applying the same method used by9, the HBV-only sub-model (8) disease-free equilibrium point given by Inline graphic has global asymptotic stability if the two conditions described below holds:

Inline graphic For the system Inline graphic, Inline graphic has a global asymptotic stability,

Inline graphic Inline graphic,Inline graphic for Inline graphic where Inline graphic is an Inline graphic-matrix and Inline graphic is the region where the dynamical system (8) makes biological sense.

Theorem 3

The HBV-only sub-dynamical system (8) disease-free equilibrium point denoted and given by Inline graphic is globally asymptotically stable if Inline graphic and the two criteria Inline graphic and Inline graphic stated above holds.

Proof

Let Inline graphic be the vector with its components are the uninfected group of individuals and Inline graphic be the vector with its components are the infected group of individuals. Here we have Inline graphic. For the dynamical system (8) the corresponding Inline graphic stated in (14) is given by Inline graphic. Hence, Inline graphic. Obviously, Inline graphic is globally asymptotically stable for system Inline graphic. Then for the other criteria Inline graphic we can determine the expression Inline graphic. Also Inline graphic and from this expression we have determined the result Inline graphic here Inline graphic since Inline graphic and hence Inline graphic. Therefore, Inline graphic implies that the HBV disease-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable whenever Inline graphic.

Note: The HBV-only sub-model (8) disease-free equilibrium point is represented by Inline graphic is globally asymptotically stable whenever its effective reproduction is less than unity means that all the model solutions must approach to an equilibrium point under all initial conditions (there is no nearby conditions). In other words the HBV disease-free equilibrium point Inline graphic is globally stable implies that no matter the size of the perturbation, the disease will not be able to persist in the population. Biologically, the global asymptotic stability implies that the HBV infection can be dies out from the community whenever Inline graphic.

Existence of HBV-only endemic equilibrium point (s)

Endemic equilibrium point is a disease-persistent state that refers to a scenario in which the HBV infection persists in the population. In this sub-section, we determined the HBV sub-model (8) endemic equilibrium point, that is, a point at which the sub-model individual state variables are present at a non-zero level. To compute the sub-model endemic equilibrium point we need to solve the system of equations given by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equr.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equs.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ13.gif 13
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equt.gif

where

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ14.gif 14

and Inline graphic

Considering (13) and (14) solve for Inline graphic Inline graphic and obtained the results given by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equu.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ15.gif 15

Using the expression given in (14) we have Inline graphic such that.

Inline graphic. After simplifying the result, we obtained the final result represented by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ16.gif 16

if and only if Inline graphic

Therefore, the HBV-only sub-model (8) has a unique endemic equilibrium point if and only if Inline graphic

The HIV/AIDS-only sub-model analysis

Here let us consider there is no hepatitis B virus (HBV) disease in the community (no interactions between the two diseases) and hence from the HBV and HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) co-infection model (4), we determine the HIV (human immunodeficiency virus)/AIDS sub-model by making Inline graphic, which is illustrated by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equv.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ17.gif 17
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equw.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equx.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equy.gif

where the initial human population is quantified by Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic,and Inline graphic, and HIV force of infection is given by.

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ18.gif 18

Where the total population considered is Inline graphic

The HIV-only sub-model will be analyzed in the feasible region denoted by:

Inline graphic. Applying the same approach used to prove Theorem 1 the region Inline graphic can be proved it is positively invariant.

Disease-free equilibrium point

Disease-free equilibrium point refers to a scenario in which the HIV/AIDS infection is not present in a population. The HIV-only sub-model (17) disease-free equilibrium point is calculated and is given by

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equz.gif

The effective reproduction number

The HIV effective reproduction number (the threshold quantity represented by Inline graphic) is the mean number of secondary infected individuals produced by one infected individual who is living in a community where some of them are susceptible and others are non-susceptible due to some protection measures in his entire life9. Using the same approach used in the Section "The HBV-only sub-model effective reproduction number" we have computed the results given by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equaa.gif

Then, after calculating and simplifying we have obtained the next generation matrix represented by

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ19.gif 19

Therefore, the effective reproduction number of the HIV-only sub-model (17) is denoted and represented by Inline graphic

Next, we need to investigate both the local and global asymptotic stability of the HIV-only sub-model disease-free equilibrium point for the sub-model (17), and also to examine whether there is small perturbations away from the disease-free equilibrium point will increase or decrease through time.

Theorem 4

The HIV-only sub-model (17) disease-free equilibrium point denoted by Inline graphic is locally asymptotically stable if Inline graphic and unstable if Inline graphic.

Proof

The HIV-only sub-model (17) Jacobian matrix at the corresponding disease-free equilibrium point Inline graphic is derived and is represented by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equab.gif

Inline graphic Inline graphic

The characteristics equation for the Jacobian matrix Inline graphic at Inline graphic is represented by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ20.gif 20

where

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equad.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equae.gif

Using the equation represented Inline graphic(20) we computed the results described by Inline graphic, and Inline graphic, Inline graphic,

and for the expression illustrated by Inline graphic+Inline graphic in Eq. (20) we applied the Routh-Hurwiz stability criteria we have proved both the eigenvalues have negative real part whenever Inline graphic

Thus, each of the eigenvalue for the Jacobian matrix Inline graphic has negative real part if an only if Inline graphic and hence the HIV-only sub-model disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable if Inline graphic and unstable if Inline graphic

Note: The HIV/AIDS-only sub-model (17) disease-free equilibrium point is represented by Inline graphic is locally asymptotically stable whenever its effective reproduction is less than unity means that the solutions of the dynamical system (17) with the given initial population values close to this disease-free equilibrium point remain close to the equilibrium and approach the equilibrium as time increases. It also means that the disease-free local stability concerns only for the close neighborhood of the disease-free equilibrium point. In other words the HIV/AIDS disease-free equilibrium point Inline graphic is locally stable implies that a small number of HIV/AIDS infected individuals is introduced in to the community then after some time the system will return to the disease-free equilibrium point. Biologically, the local asymptotic stability implies that the HIV/AIDS infection can be eliminated from the community whenever Inline graphic which is only true if the initial sizes of the sub-population of the HBV sub-model are in the basin of attraction of Inline graphic.

Theorem 5

The HIV-only sub-model (14) disease-free equilibrium point denoted and represented by Inline graphic is globally asymptotically stable whenever Inline graphic and the two criteria Inline graphicand Inline graphic described in Theorem 4 above holds.

Proof

Let Inline graphic be the vector with its components are the HIV uninfected group of individuals and Inline graphic be the vector with its components are the HIV infected group of individuals. Here we have Inline graphic. For the HIV-only dynamical system (14) the corresponding Inline graphic stated in (14) is given by Inline graphic. Hence, Inline graphic. Obviously, Inline graphic is globally asymptotically stable for system Inline graphic. Then for the other criteria Inline graphic we can determine the expression Inline graphic. Also Inline graphic and from this expression we have determined the result Inline graphic here Inline graphic since Inline graphic and hence Inline graphic. Therefore, Inline graphic implies that the HIV-only sub-model disease-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable if Inline graphic.

Note: The HBV-only sub-model (17) disease-free equilibrium point is represented by Inline graphic is globally asymptotically stable whenever its effective reproduction is less than unity means that all the model solutions must approach to an equilibrium point under all initial conditions (there is no nearby conditions). In other words the HBV disease-free equilibrium point Inline graphic is globally stable implies that no matter the size of the perturbation, the disease will not be able to persist in the population. Biologically, the global asymptotic stability implies that the HBV infection can be dies out from the community whenever Inline graphic.

Existence of the HIV/AIDS sub-model (14) endemic equilibrium point

Endemic equilibrium point is a disease-persistent state that refers to a scenario in which the HIV/AIDS infection persists in the population. In this sub-section, we determined the HIV-only sub-model (17) endemic equilibrium point, that is, a point at which the sub-model individual state variables are present at a non-zero level. To compute the sub-model endemic equilibrium point we need to solve the system of equations given by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equaf.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equag.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ21.gif 21
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equah.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equai.gif

where

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equaj.gif

and Inline graphic

Applying (21) and (22) we solve for Inline graphic Inline graphic, and obtained the results given by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equak.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ22.gif 23
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equal.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equam.gif

Since Inline graphic and Inline graphic, we substitute (23) in this expression to compute the non-zero expression given by::

Inline graphic = Inline graphic, if and only if Inline graphic,

where

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equan.gif

Therefore, the HIV-only sub-model (17) has a unique endemic equilibrium point if and only if Inline graphic.

Analysis of the complete HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model

Disease-free equilibrium point

The complete HBV and HIV co-infection dynamical system (4) disease-free equilibrium point denoted by Inline graphic is determined by making all the right hand side equations equal to zero, and assuming that there is no disease spread in community (i.e.Inline graphic). Thus, the disease-free equilibrium point of the co-infection dynamical system described in equation Inline graphic is represented by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ23.gif 24

The co-infection model effective reproduction number

Using the same procedures applied in the sub-subsection Inline graphic and Inline graphic we have computed the results represented by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equao.gif

And

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ24.gif 25

Then, we have calculated the next generation matrix.

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ25.gif 26

And the associated eigenvalues of Inline graphic are given by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equap.gif

Thus, the effective reproduction number of the complete HBV and HIV co-infection model is given by

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ26.gif 27

where

Inline graphic is the HBV-only sub-model effective reproduction number and.

Inline graphic is the HIV-only sub-model effective reproduction number illustrated in (10) and (19) respectively.

Theorem 6

The complete HBV and HIV co-infection model (4) disease-free equilibrium point Inline graphic is locally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction number Inline graphic and is unstable if Inline graphic.

Proof

The Jacobian matrix Inline graphic of the complete HBV and HIV co-infection model (4) concerning Inline graphic at the co-infection disease-free equilibrium point Inline graphic is given by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ27.gif 28

where Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic).

Then characteristic equation at HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model (4) disease-free equilibrium point is given by

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equaq.gif

Then the solutions of corresponding characteristic equation are.

Inline graphic if Inline graphic,

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equar.gif

Or

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ28.gif 29

Here, all the eigenvalues except eigenvalues in the expression of equation Inline graphic are negative and for remaining two eigenvalues in the expression (29) the Routh-Hurwitz stability criteria is applied and proved that the first column of the Routh-Hurwitz array has no sign change whenever Inline graphic. Hence, the co-infection model disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) is locally asymptotically stable whenever Inline graphic. The disease-free equilibrium of the model is locally asymptotically stable whenever its corresponding effective reproduction number value is less than unity42.

The co-infection model (4) endemic equilibrium point

The HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model (4) endemic equilibrium point is computed by making the right side of the dynamical system (4) equal to zero provided that Inline graphic,Inline graphic,Inline graphic and Inline graphic. Let the co-infection model (4) endemic equilibrium point be Inline graphic and the forces of infection for HBV and HIV/AIDS respectively are:

and, Inline graphic and Inline graphic After solving and simplifying the result we determined the results given by

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equas.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ29.gif 30

Inline graphic, Inline graphic, and Inline graphic.

Analysis of the optimal control problem

In this section, we proposed the control strategies and modified the HBV and HIV co-infection dynamical system (4) with the following proposed time-dependent optimal control strategies represented by:

  • Since both HBV and HIV are sexually transmitted viral infectious diseases they have the same protection mechanisms and the control functions Inline graphic and Inline graphic represent the efforts to protect HBV and HIV single infections spreading by implementing sexual abstinence, one mate relationship with an uninfected partner, and condom use by sexually active susceptible individuals) aimed at preventing the HBV and HIV infections respectively.

  • the control function Inline graphic is related to treatment of HIV/AIDS infected individuals to increase their recovery rate and recovery period

  • the control function Inline graphic is related to treatment of HBV infected individuals to increase their recovery rate and recovery period ,

  • the control function Inline graphic is related to treatment of the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected individuals to increase their recovery rate and recovery period.

After incorporated the five proposed time-dependent control strategies into the complete HBV and HIV co-infection model described in (4) to investigate the optimal control strategy for minimizing the co-infections of the two diseases the corresponding optimal control problem is represented by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equat.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equau.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equav.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equaw.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ30.gif 31
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equax.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equay.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equaz.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equba.gif

with initial conditions given by Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic,Inline graphic Inline graphic, Inline graphic,Inline graphic Inline graphic, Inline graphic and the HBV and HIV forces of infections represented by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbb.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbc.gif

The proposed control functions represented by Inline graphic Inline graphic Inline graphic Inline graphic and Inline graphic such that Inline graphic Inline graphic Inline graphic Inline graphic Inline graphic are bounded and Lebesgue integrable. Here the optimal control problem (31) involves a situation where the number of HBV-infected, HIV/AIDS-infected, the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infections cases and the cost of implementing protective and treatment control functions respectively given by Inline graphic Inline graphic Inline graphic Inline graphic and Inline graphic are minimized subject to the dynamical system (31).

According to the discussions of the optimal control problem above the objective functional represented below is considered.

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ31.gif 32

where Inline graphic is the final time Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic and Inline graphic are weight constants of the HIV/AIDS infected the HBV infected and the HIV and HBV co-infected individuals respectively while Inline graphic for Inline graphic are weight constants for each individual time-dependent control strategy. We choose a nonlinear cost on the control strategies based on the assumption that the costs take nonlinear form as applied in references41,43,44.

The optimal control strategies Inline graphic are to be found such that.

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ32.gif 33

where Inline graphic such that.

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ33.gif 34

is the control set.

Theorem 7

Given the objective functional Inline graphic defined on the control set Inline graphic and subject to the dynamical system (31) with the given non-negative initial conditions at time Inline graphic then there exist an optimal control function Inline graphic and corresponding optimal solutions to the initial value problem (31)-(33) by Inline graphic, that minimizes Inline graphic over Inline graphic.

Proof

To verify the following four basic conditions required for the set of admissible controls C we can use the Fleming and Rishel’s theorem stated in48.

Inline graphic The set of the model state variables to the system (31)–(34) that correspond to the control functions in Inline graphic is non-empty.

Inline graphic The control set c is closed and convex.

Inline graphic Each right hand side of the state system is continuous, is bounded above by a sum of the bounded control and the state, and can be written as a linear function of Inline graphic with coefficients depending on time and the state.

Inline graphic The integrand of the objective functional given in Eq. (32) is convex.

The first required condition (Inline graphic) can be verified by using Picard-Lindelöf’s theorem. If the solutions to the co-infection dynamical system equations solutions are bounded, continuous and satisfies Lipschitz conditions in the model state variables, then there is a unique model solution corresponding to each admissible control function (strategy) in the control set Inline graphic. We have proved that the total number of human population at time Inline graphic is bounded as Inline graphic also each of the model state variables is bounded. Hence the model state variables are continuous and bounded. Similarly we can prove the boundedness of the partial derivatives with respect to the state variables in the model, which establishes that the model is Lipschitz with respect to the co-infection model state variables. This completes the verification that condition Inline graphic holds.

By applying definition stated in references4952, the control set Inline graphic is convex and closed this proved the required condition Inline graphic Condition Inline graphic is verified by observing the linear dependence of the model equations on the control variables Inline graphic.

Eventually, to justify the required condition Inline graphic use definition stated in48,51 that says any constant, linear and quadratic functions are convex. Hence, since the integrand of the objective functional given by Inline graphic is a quadratic function that is convex on Inline graphic. To show the bound on Inline graphic use definition of the control function Inline graphic and then we have Inline graphic since Inline graphic and hence Inline graphic

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbd.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Eqube.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbf.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbg.gif

Inline graphic and Inline graphic. This completes the proof of Theorem 8 stated above.

The necessary conditions that an optimal solution must satisfy come from Pontryagin’s minimum principle (PMP). This principle converts (31)–(34) in to a problem of minimizing a Hamiltonian,Inline graphic with respect to Inline graphic together with the state equation and the adjoint condition.

The Hamiltonian function is illustrated by

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbh.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbi.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbj.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ34.gif 35
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbk.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbl.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbm.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbn.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbo.gif

Inline graphic, where Inline graphic for Inline graphic are the adjoint variables.

Theorem 8

For an optimal control set Inline graphic that minimizes Inline graphic over Inline graphic, there are adjoint variables represented by Inline graphic, …, Inline graphic satisfying the condition Inline graphic, with transversality conditions Inline graphic, where Inline graphic.

Further,

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbp.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ35.gif 36
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbq.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbr.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbs.gif

Proof:

Suppose Inline graphic is an optimal control and Inline graphic are the corresponding solutions of the dynamical system. Then applying the Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle there exist adjoint variables satisfying:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbt.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ36.gif 37
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbu.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbv.gif

The behaviour of the control can be determined by differentiating the Hamiltonian, Inline graphic with respect to the controls Inline graphic at t. On the interior of the control set, where Inline graphic for all Inline graphic and hence the first conditions that we will consider from the Pontryagin’s Maximum/Minimum principle applied in52 are the minimization of the Hamiltonian Inline graphic with respect to the control functions Inline graphic. Since the cost function is convex, if the optimal control occurs in the interior region we must have the following basic necessary and sufficient optimality conditions for the optimal control problem (31) as:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ37.gif 38

Then we have the following expressions

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbw.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ38.gif 39
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbx.gif

Therefore, solving (39) and determined the following results

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equby.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ39.gif 40

Finally, we solve and simplify the results in (39) we have determined the final optimal control strategies results given by:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equbz.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equ40.gif 41
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equca.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equcb.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equcc.gif

Theorem 9

For any Inline graphic the bounded solutions to the optimality system are unique. We can refer50, for the proof of this theorem.

Numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis

To approximate the solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) of the formulated co-infection model without and with optimal control strategies using numerical simulations (curve fitting), the classical fourth order Runge–Kutta (RK4) numerical method (the forward backward sweep) is utilized with MATLAB. Since it is straightforward and accurate, this method of solving ODEs is frequently utilized. The RK4 technique evaluates the derivative function at several intermediate points within the step interval in order to determine the values of the dependent variables at each step. To get an estimate of the derivative at the present step, it then take the weighted averages of these intermediate evaluations. The dependent variable values are updated using this estimate, and the procedure is repeated iteratively until the intended endpoint is reached. By considering multiple intermediate evaluations, the RK4 method provides a more accurate approximation compared to other simple numerical methods, making it a popular choice for numerical ODE integration.

Sensitivity analysis

In this sub-section of the study, we investigated the significance of some of the co-infection model parameters on the HBV and HIV co-infection transmission in the community. Implementing the same procedures applied in references8,53, we carried out the sensitivity analysis of the co-infection model parameters to assess their impact on the effective reproduction number of the model. The calculated results revealed that the most sensitive parameter is the parameter that exhibited a larger magnitude in its sensitivity index. Basically, we focused on sensitivity analyses of the model parameters included in the HIV sub-model effective reproduction number Inline graphic and the HBV sub-model effective reproduction number Inline graphic. We carried out the sensitivity analysis for the HBV and HIV co-infection model effective reproduction number based on each relevant parameter, and we have revealed that how crucial each parameter is to the spreading of the HBV and HIV co-infection and the HBV and HIV single infection diseases in the community. For the effective reproduction numbers Inline graphic and Inline graphic, respectively the sensitivity analyses listed below have been carried out.

  • Inline graphic

  • Inline graphic

  • Inline graphicInline graphic

  • Inline graphicInline graphic

  • Inline graphic

  • Inline graphic.

  • Inline graphicInline graphic.

  • Inline graphicInline graphic

  • Inline graphicInline graphic.

  • Inline graphic.

  • Inline graphic

  • Inline graphic

  • Inline graphic

  • Inline graphic.

The simulation curve illustrated by Fig. 2 is performed by considering Inline graphic meaning that, when the HBV and HIV co-infection disease spreads throughout the community. In this study, we have used the parameter values illustrated in Table 1 and computed the sensitivity indices described in Fig. 2. The diseases transmission rates treatment rates and portion of protection have the most significant impact on the co-infection model effective reproduction number.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2

Numerical simulation curves to show sensitivity indices of the model parameters.

Numerical simulation for the optimal control problem

Numerical simulation of the optimal control problem (31) is a critical aspect of this manuscript, offering a computational approach to solve complex systems where analytical solutions are often impractical. Optimal control involves determining the best control inputs over time to achieve a desired objective while adhering to constraints. Moreover, numerical simulation of the optimal control problem enhances the manuscript by providing insights into the system dynamics, performance optimization, and the robustness of control strategies across various applications. We now simulate the optimal control problem (31) numerically using the parameter estimates in Table 2, so that the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model effective reproduction number, Inline graphic (unless otherwise described), to investigate the potential impact of different control strategies on the spreading dynamics of HBV and HIV/AIDS in the population. The inclusion of an optimal control framework in the research is of utmost significance, as it introduces five controls designed to manage the dynamics of HBV and HIV co-infection. These controls include strategies to prevent HBV and HIV infections, improve recovery in cases of each infection, and provide treatment for co-infected individuals. This section highlights the critical importance of these control strategies, both collectively and individually, underscoring their role in shaping effective approaches to address the complexities of HBV and HIV co-infection dynamics. To verify the effect of the proposed control strategies and to verify the analytical results of the optimal control problem (31) we carried out numerical simulation by considering the following equal weight factors (since it is difficult to get values for weight constants of the HIV/AIDS infected the HBV infected and the HIV and HBV co-infected individuals respectively and also weight constants for each individual time-dependent control strategy from related published papers), let us assume the weight constants as Inline graphic Inline graphic, and initial population along with the parameter values illustrated in Table 2, and the initial population is taken as Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic,Inline graphic Inline graphic, Inline graphic,Inline graphic Inline graphic. Let us consider the following seven possible control strategies for numerical simulation and cost-effectiveness analysis:

  • Strategy 1: Implement the controls (HBV protection Inline graphic and HIV protection Inline graphic simultaneously.

  • Strategy 2: Implement the controls (HBV protection Inline graphic and HBV treatment Inline graphic simultaneously.

  • Strategy 3: Implement the controls (HBV protection Inline graphic and HIV treatment Inline graphic simultaneously.

  • Strategy 4: Implement the controls (HIV protection Inline graphic and HBV treatment Inline graphic simultaneously.

  • Strategy 5: Implement the controls (HIV protection Inline graphic and HIV treatment Inline graphic simultaneously Strategy 6: Implement all the treatment controls (Inline graphic,Inline graphic,Inline graphic simultaneously.

  • Strategy 7: Applying all the five proposed control measures simultaneously.

Strategy 1: HBV protection (Inline graphic and HIV protection ( Inline graphic Controls

The numerical simulation to investigate the total number of HBV and HIV co-infected population in the optimal control system (31) when HBV protection (Inline graphic) and HIV protection (Inline graphic) controls are implemented, is illustrated by Fig. 3. It is observed that when this control strategy is implemented, there is a significant reduction in the total number of HBV and HIV co-infected individuals. Eventually, after five years the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population declining to zero.

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3

Impact of HBV and HIV protections on the total co-infected population.

Strategy 2: HBV protection (Inline graphic and HBV treatment (Inline graphic controls

In this sub-section numerical simulation is carried out to investigate the impacts of the HBV protection (Inline graphic) and HBV treatment (Inline graphic) control strategy on the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population in the optimal control system (31) which is described by Fig. 4. It is observed that when this control strategy is implemented, there is a significant reduction in the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected individuals as compared to the simulation result without control strategy. Eventually, after five years the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population declining to zero.

Fig. 4.

Fig. 4

Impact of HBV protection and HBV treatment on the total co-infected population.

Strategy 3: HBV protection (Inline graphic and HIV treatment (Inline graphic controls

In this sub-section numerical simulation is carried out to investigate the impacts of the HBV protection (Inline graphic) and HIV treatment (Inline graphic) control strategy on the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population in the optimal control system (31) which is described by Fig. 5. It is observed that when this control strategy is implemented, there is a significant reduction in the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected individuals as compared to the simulation result without control strategy. Eventually, after five years the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population decreases.

Fig. 5.

Fig. 5

Impact of HBV protection and HIV treatment on the total co-infected population.

Strategy 4: HIV protection (Inline graphic and HBV treatment (Inline graphic controls

In this sub-section numerical simulation is carried out to investigate the impacts of the HIV protection (Inline graphic) and HBV treatment (Inline graphic) control strategy on the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population in the optimal control system (31) which is described by Fig. 6. It is observed that when this control strategy is implemented, there is a significant reduction in the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected individuals as compared to the simulation result without control strategy. Eventually, after five years the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population decreases to zero.

Fig. 6.

Fig. 6

Impact of HIV protection and HBV treatment on the total co-infected population.

Strategy 5: HIV protection (Inline graphic and HBV treatment (Inline graphic controls

In this sub-section numerical simulation is carried out to investigate the impacts of the HIV protection (Inline graphic) and HIV treatment (Inline graphic) control strategy on the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population in the optimal control system (31) which is described by Fig. 7. It is observed that when this control strategy is implemented, there is a significant reduction in the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected individuals as compared to the simulation result without control strategy. Eventually, after five years the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population decreases to zero.

Fig. 7.

Fig. 7

Impact of HIV protection and HIV treatment on the total co-infected population.

Strategy 6: treatment (Inline graphic controls

In this sub-section numerical simulation is carried out to investigate the impacts of the HIV, HBV, and the co-infection treatments (Inline graphic) control strategy (strategy 6) on the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population in the optimal control system (31) which is described by Fig. 8. It is observed that when this control strategy is implemented, there is a significant reduction in the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected individuals as compared to the simulation result without control strategy. Eventually, after five years the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population decreases.

Fig. 8.

Fig. 8

Impact of HBV, HIV and co-infection treatments on the total co-infected population.

Strategy 7: Implement all (Inline graphic, Inline graphic controls

The numerical simulation curve illustrated in Fig. 9 reveals the impact of the control strategy 7 (implementing all the proposed control mechanisms simultaneously) emphasizing a significant reduction of the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infected population as compared to a scenario implemented in Figs. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 and where there is no control mechanism implemented.

Fig. 9.

Fig. 9

Impact of protections and treatments strategy on the total co-infected population.

Cost-effectiveness analysis

In this section, we carried out a cost-effectiveness analysis in order to verify the costs corresponding to health intervention(s) or strategy (strategies) such as protections, or treatment intervention strategies and the associated cost benefits are usually evaluated using cost-effectiveness analysis approach used in45. In this section we will consider the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) approaches to analyze cost-effectiveness and evaluate the real cost benefits corresponding to the proposed health intervention strategies. The ICER is defined as:

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equcd.gif

Where ICER numerator includes the differences in disease averted costs, costs of prevented cases, intervention costs, among others. While the denominator of ICER accounts for the differences in health outcome, including the total number of infections averted or the total number of susceptibility cases prevented. The criteria used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different interventions is analyzed the cost-effectiveness by ranking the control strategies in increasing order of effective- ness in terms of the number of infected averted and remove the strategy with dominant ICER value.

In this section, we calculated the total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection cases averted and the total cost of the proposed strategies applied in Table 3. The total number of HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection cases prevented is obtained by calculating the total number of individuals when controls are applied and the total number when there is no control implemented. Similarly, we apply the cost functions Inline graphic, over time, to compute the total cost for the various control strategies implemented. Thus, we applied similar approach used in several previous studies like47,54, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is calculated to determine the most cost-effective strategy of all the different control intervention strategies considered in this study.

Table 3.

Seven Strategies’ ICER values with total number of infections averted and cost incurred.

Strategy Total number of infections averted Total cost incurred ($) ICER
Strategy 7 Inline graphic 3.1810 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 4 5.1006 Inline graphic 0.091 × Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 3 5.9614 Inline graphic 0.099 × Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 5 6.1352 Inline graphic 0.54 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 2 2.8256 Inline graphic 2.34 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 1 3.2317 Inline graphic 0.87 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 6 4.1512 Inline graphic 0.96 Inline graphic Inline graphic

In this part, using the seven proposed control strategies described in the numerical simulation part for the optimal control problem (31), namely, Strategy 1 (implemented Inline graphic and Inline graphic i.e., to protect individuals against HBV and HIV infections respectively we considered sexual abstinence, one mate relationship with an uninfected partner, and condom), Strategy 2 (implement Inline graphic and Inline graphic i.e., to protect individuals against HBV infection we implemented sexual abstinence, one mate relationship with an uninfected partner, and condom and treat HBV infected individuals simultaneously) Strategy 3 (implement Inline graphic and Inline graphic i.e., to protect individuals against HBV infection we considered sexual abstinence, one mate relationship with an uninfected partner, and condom and treat HIV/AIDS infected individuals simultaneously), Strategy 4 (implement Inline graphic and Inline graphic i.e., to protect individuals against HIV/AIDS infection we considered sexual abstinence, one mate relationship with an uninfected partner, and condom and treat HBV infected individuals simultaneously), Strategy 5 (implement Inline graphic and Inline graphic i.e., to protect individuals against HIV/AIDS infection we considered sexual abstinence, one mate relationship with an uninfected partner, and condom and treat HIV/AIDS infected individuals simultaneously), Strategy 6 (implement Inline graphic Inline graphic and Inline graphic i.e., to minimized the number of individuals infected with HVB, HIV/AIDS and HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection we considered possible treatment mechanisms for each infection simultaneously), and Strategy 7 implemented all the control strategies (Inline graphic,Inline graphic,Inline graphic) simultaneously are ranked in ascending order with respect to the total number of infections averted as illustrated in Table 3 below.

graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equce.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equcf.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equcg.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equch.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equci.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equcj.gif
graphic file with name 41598_2024_83442_Article_Equck.gif

According to the ICER values computed and described in Table 3 above ICER (Strategy 7) and ICER Strategy 4), it is observed that the ICER for strategy 7 is greater than the ICER for strategy 4. This implies that strategy 7 strongly dominates strategy 4, indicating that strategy 4 is less costly and more effective in comparison with strategy 7. As a result, strategy 7 is eliminated from subsequent ICER computations because the strategy was too expensive and less effective, we excluded from other alternative strategies that were competing for limited resources, resulting in the re-computed ICER for Strategy 4 and Strategy 3.

We employed a similar methodology and, based on the data presented in Table 4, we determined that Strategy 3 was removed since its ICER value was higher than Strategy 4’s. Table 5 below shows the results of the computation we performed to compare Strategies 4 and 5.

Table 4.

Six Strategies’ ICER values with total number of infections averted and cost incurred.

Strategy Total number of infections averted Total cost incurred ($) ICER
Strategy 4 5.1006 Inline graphic 0.091 × Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 3 5.9614 Inline graphic 0.099 × Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 5 6.1352 Inline graphic 0.54 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 2 2.8256 Inline graphic 2.34 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 1 3.2317 Inline graphic 0.87 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 6 4.1512 Inline graphic 0.96 Inline graphic Inline graphic

Table 5.

Five Strategies’ ICER values with total number of infections averted and cost incurred.

Strategy Total number of infections averted Total cost incurred ($) ICER
Strategy 4 5.1006 Inline graphic 0.091 × Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 5 6.1352 Inline graphic 0.54 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 2 2.8256 Inline graphic 2.34 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 1 3.2317 Inline graphic 0.87 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 6 4.1512 Inline graphic 0.96 Inline graphic Inline graphic

Here we have to eliminate Strategy 5 and proceeded with the procedures to compare Strategy 4 and Strategy 2, as shown in Table 6 below, as the results shown in Table 5 above indicate that Strategy 5 is more cost-effective than Strategy 4.

Table 6.

Four Strategies’ ICER values with total number of infections averted and cost incurred.

Strategy Total number of infections averted Total cost incurred ($) ICER
Strategy 4 5.1006 Inline graphic 0.091 × Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 2 2.8256 Inline graphic 2.34 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 1 3.2317 Inline graphic 0.87 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 6 4.1512 Inline graphic 0.96 Inline graphic Inline graphic

Since Strategy 2 exceeds Strategy 4 in terms of cost, as indicated by the result shown in Table 6 above, we eliminated Strategy 2 and carried out the steps to compare Strategy 4 and Strategy 1, which is explained in Table 7 below.

Table 7.

Three strategies’ ICER values with total number of infections averted and cost incurred.

Strategy Total number of infections averted Total cost incurred ($) ICER
Strategy 4 5.1006 Inline graphic 0.091 × Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 1 3.2317 Inline graphic 0.87 Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 6 4.1512 Inline graphic 0.96 Inline graphic Inline graphic

Since Strategy 1 is more cost-effective than Strategy 4 according to the results shown in Table 7 above, we eliminated Strategy 1 and carried out the steps to compare Strategy 4 and Strategy 6 as shown in Table 8 below.

Table 8.

Three strategies’ ICER values with total number of infections averted and cost incurred.

Strategy Total number of infections averted Total cost incurred ($) ICER
Strategy 4 5.1006 Inline graphic 0.091 × Inline graphic Inline graphic
Strategy 6 4.1512 Inline graphic 0.96 Inline graphic Inline graphic

Finally, we found that Strategy 6 is highly dominated in terms of cost-effectiveness compared to Strategy 4 since the ICER (Strategy 6) is bigger than the ICER (Strategy 4) utilizing the results of the cost-effectiveness study shown in Table 8 above. The analysis reveals that, out of the seven proposed controlling strategies, Strategy 4, which involves protecting HIV/AIDS infected individuals and treating HBV-infected individuals simultaneously is the most economical (cost benefit) strategy we recommend the public health stakeholders to implement this strategy to tackle the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection spreading in the community.

Therefore, Strategy 4 (implementing Inline graphic and Inline graphic i.e., to protect individuals against HIV/AIDS infection we considered sexual abstinence, one mate relationship with an uninfected partner, and condom use and treat HBV infected individuals simultaneously) is the most cost-effective strategy.

Discussions, conclusions and future directions of the study

HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection is a common infectious disease and has been affected millions of individuals throughout the world. In this study, we constructed and analyzed HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection model with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analyses by considering the two HIV infection stages. In the models qualitative analysis we have proved the model solutions existence, uniqueness, non-negativity and boundedness, we applied the next generation matrix approach we have calculated all the models effective reproduction numbers, using Routh-Hurwitz stability criteria we have proved the local stability of the models disease-free equilibrium points, using the approach in Castillo-Chavez criteria the disease-free equilibrium of the sub-model was proven to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated effective reproduction number is less than unity. The co-infection model (4) can be combined with optimal control theory to identify the most effective intervention strategies for the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection spreading in the community. The goal is to find the optimal trajectory of these controls that minimizes the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection and costs incurred. This involves solving the system of differential equations for the model dynamics and applying Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle to derive necessary conditions for an optimal solution. By analyzing the Hamiltonian and adjoint equations, we computed the optimal combination of intervention strategies at each time point during the co-epidemic. This allows public health authorities to determine the most effective allocation of limited resources for protection, education campaigns, and healthcare to minimize the co-infection cases. Optimal control provides a framework for finding the best co-epidemic mitigation strategy that balances infection reduction with practical constraints on implementation. Moreover, we performed sensitivity analysis of the co-infection model parameters and both the HBV and HIV spreading rates are the most influential parameters on the co-infection spreading. Furthermore, we carried out numerical simulations and simulating of the co-infection model, we used a well-known and more efficient numerical scheme the classical Runge Kutta fourth order (RK4) forward numerical methods with MATLAB, the numerical results are given in the numerical results section. The findings of the study reveals that implementing all the proposed control strategies simultaneously is crucial strategy used to minimize and control the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection spreading in the community but cost-effectiveness analysis proved that the HIV protection and HBV treatment strategy is the most cost-effective strategy as compared with all other implemented strategies and we recommend for the health stake holders to implement this strategy to tackle the HBV and HIV co-infection transmission problem in the community. Therefore, this study is useful for the understanding of the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection spreading behavior, to implement the right control measures to tackle and minimize the disease transmission in the community. Hence, we recommend that efforts should be made by government and public health stakeholders to protect the HIV/AIDS infection and to treat the HBV infection with low cost in order to bring the burden of the HBV and HIV/AIDS co-infection very low at the community level.

This study did not considered the stochastic approach, the fractional order approach, the age structure of individuals, the HBV infection stages, the environmental factors, and validation of the model with real data collected from the study area etc. These are some of main limitations of this study where interested researchers can consider and modify this study.

Declaration

Acknowledgements

The authors of this manuscript thanks to all the editors and reviewers for their great contributions in the review process and knowledge sharing.

Author contributions

Shewafera Wondimagegnhu Teklu formulated and analyzed both the model without optimal controls and with optimal controls qualitatively as well as numerically. And Abushet Hayalu Worike edited and approved the optimal control problem of the model and carried out its qualitative analysis.

Funding

There is no funding for the study.

Data availability

Data used to support the findings of this study are included in the article.

Declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Footnotes

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

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Data Availability Statement

Data used to support the findings of this study are included in the article.


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