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aDepartment of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, People's Republic of China
bDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
CONTACT
Xiaojun Zhu Xiaojun.Zhu@xjtlu.edu.cn
Department of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, People's Republic of China
Received 2024 May 5; Accepted 2024 Aug 30; Collection date 2025.
In this paper, Bayesian estimates are derived for the location and scale parameters of the Laplace distribution based on complete, Type-I, and Type-II censored samples under different prior settings. Subsequently, Bayesian point and interval estimates, as well as the associated statistical inference, are discussed in detail. The developed methods are then applied to two real data sets for illustrative purposes. Moreover, a detailed Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out for evaluating the performance of the inferential methods developed here. Finally, we provide a brief discussion of the established results to demonstrate their practical utility and present some associated problems of further interest. Overall, this study fills an existing gap in the development of Bayesian inferential techniques for the parameters of the two-parameter Laplace distribution, making this research innovative and offering more investigative implications. It showcases the potential for broader methodological applications of Bayesian inference for complex real-world data sets, especially in scenarios involving different forms of censoring. This research provides a critical tool for statistical analysis in different fields such as engineering and finance, where the Laplace distribution is frequently adopted as a fundamental model.
Keywords: Laplace distribution, Bayesian inference, Monte Carlo simulation, Type-I censored samples, Type-II censored samples
In 1774, Pierre-Simon Laplace derived the Laplace distribution, also known as the double exponential distribution [24]. The Laplace distribution arises from the difference of two independent and identically distributed exponential random variables [20]. Compared to the normal distribution, this distribution possesses a steeper peak and heavier tail, and is therefore used for analyzing heavier (than Gaussian) tailed noise data or in robustness studies; it has also found some important applications in deep neural networks [26], analysis of filter-bank multi-carrier with offset quadrature amplitude modulation (a promising waveform for 5G) [23], and incipient fault detection [30]. Interested readers may also refer to [21] for a detailed review and various applications of Laplace distribution.
Several inferential results for the location and scale parameters of Laplace distribution have been developed in the literature; see, for example, [17,20]. Based on ordered observations, linear estimation methods have been discussed in [12,13]. Best linear unbiased estimators of Laplace parameters based on complete and right censored samples have been discussed by Balakrishnan and Chandramouleeswaran [3]. Balakrishnan et al. [6] further discussed confidence intervals (CIs) and hypothesis tests under Type-II censored samples. Bain and Engelhardt [2] developed approximate CIs and Kappenman [18] discussed conditional CI for the location and scale parameters of Laplace distribution. Subsequently, Kappenman [19] derived exact tolerance interval for a Laplace proportion. This work was followed up by Childs and Balakrishnan [8,10], who presented a generalized procedure for obtaining conditional exact CI as well as tolerance interval. Furthermore, maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the two parameters have been derived in [4,9]. Using those estimates, MLE-based inference under different censoring schemes have been discussed extensively in [1,5,15,16,27,31–33].
But, limited research seems to exist for inference under the Bayesian framework for the Laplace distribution. So, in this paper, we develop Bayesian methods for the two parameters of the Laplace distribution under different priors.
Previous studies on estimating the Laplace distribution have primarily focused on frequentist approach. However, there appears to be limited work on the Bayesian framework for the Laplace distribution. Implementing frequentist approach for parameter distribution estimation is challenging when data are sparse or samples are censored, where precise measurements are often hard to obtain. In contrast to frequentist statistics, which typically fit the fixed model parameter with repeated data observations, Bayesian statistics can provide a robust alternative by quantitatively integrating prior knowledge with experimental data to derive posterior distributions [25]. This adaptability is crucial for making reliable inference given suitable prior settings from incomplete data sets, a common issue in fields such as engineering and finance, where the Laplace distribution is used extensively due to its heavy tails [28]. In addition, use of the Bayesian approach helps to alleviate the frequently criticized opaque subjectivity inherent in frequentist interpretations of P-values and confidence intervals, providing a natural way of quantifying uncertainty [25,28].
Therefore, given the strengths of Bayesian methods and the significant applications of Laplace distribution in different fields, this paper extends the Bayesian framework to the two parameters of the Laplace distribution. In practice, Bayesian techniques handle the subjectivity of statistical analysis by employing a range of prior distributions [28]. The choice of prior often depends on available prior knowledge independent of the experimental data. For instance, a uniform distribution might be used as a noninformative prior when specific prior information is lacking. The noninformative prior simply incorporates vague or general information about the parameters with the most limited impact on the posterior distribution. While noninformative prior is an objective choice that allows the data itself to dominate the posterior, informative priors would contain more meaningful knowledge about the parameters, enhancing the probability of parameters falling within specific intervals and simultaneously reducing outlier probabilities. This flexibility is particularly advantageous when dealing with incomplete data. For a more comprehensive analysis, this study derives posterior distributions for the two-parameter Laplace distribution under various priors, including uniform, normal, and Laplace distributions for the location parameter, and inverse-gamma for the scale parameter. This not only addresses a significant gap that is present in the literature, but also equips practitioners with more robust and flexible inferential tools, enhancing the reliability and applicability of statistical analysis in scenarios comprising incomplete or censored data.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we present detailed procedures on Bayesian inference assuming non-informative and inverse gamma priors for location and scale parameters, respectively. In Section 3, adopting a similar approach, we develop results when the prior for the location parameter is taken to be normal and Laplace distributions. We further extend these results to Type-I and Type-II censoring cases in Section 4. In Section 5, the developed inferential results are applied to two real data sets and the performance of the developed results are evaluated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, some discussion of the developed results and some possible future works are provided in Section 6.
2. Bayesian inference
In this section, we discuss in detail the Bayesian estimation of the two parameters of Laplace distribution. The priors for the location parameter μ and the scale parameter σ are assumed to be independent, following uniform and inverse gamma distributions, respectively. The prior for μ used here is a non-informative prior, and we will later consider normal and Laplace priors in the following section. The corresponding marginal densities of the considered priors are
where a, b, α and β are hyper-parameters assumed to be fixed.
Based on a random sample of size n from the Laplace distribution with density
let be the corresponding ordered observations. Suppose and . Then, the joint density of is
(1)
where C is a constant that depends on a, b, α, β, and sample size n, and .
2.1. Marginal distribution of
We will first derive the joint probability density function (PDF) of x and then consider the conditional PDF of the Laplace parameters. By solving the double integral of the joint PDF across the support of μ and σ, the PDF of sample x can be attained. In particular, two assumptions are made to restrict the upper and lower bounds of the location parameter, as a and b. Without loss of any generality, let us assume that and with and and throughout the paper. Then, the required integration is divided into two cases, depending on the parity of the sample size n.
Case I:n = 2k + 1,
In this case, we have
where
(2)
and
Case II:n = 2k,
In this case, we have
where denotes an indictor function.
For simplicity and convenience, let us define
Note here that we use the notation instead of so that the results for cases n = 2k and n = 2k + 1 can be combined together. For an odd sample size, will never equal n. Hence, the result coincides with the result in Case I. But, for even sample size, is equivalent to , and thus the result, coincides with the result in Case II.
Now, the marginal PDF for sample x is given as
In particular, this PDF for sample x also holds true when .
2.2. Posterior distributions
From the above result, we can readily obtain the joint posterior PDF for as
where denote the PDF of an inverse gamma distribution with shape parameter α and scale parameter β.
Then, by integrating with respect to σ, we obtain the posterior PDF of to be
Likewise, we can also derive the posterior PDF of to be
where , , and .
As , , and are all positive for , the posterior density of is indeed a generalized mixture of inverse-gamma distributions with components , and with corresponding mixing probabilities , and , for j from to .
2.3. Bayesian posterior point estimation
In this subsection, we will develop three commonly used Bayesian point estimates using posterior mode, posterior mean and posterior median.
2.3.1. Posterior mode
The parameter value that maximizes the posterior PDF for is
For the case when n = 2k, actually the posterior mode estimate could be any value in the interval . Here, we use for convenience. In particular, the numerical value of the posterior mode estimate will be equal to the MLE.
In a similar vein, upon solving the equation of the first derivative of the posterior PDF being zero, the posterior mode estimate for the scale parameter σ can be obtained. In this regard, the derivative of the posterior PDF of is given by
where denotes the first derivative of the PDF with respective to σ, of the form
2.3.2. Posterior mean
The posterior mean estimator for μ is
where
Using the fact that the marginal distribution of the scale parameter is a generalized mixture of inverse-gamma distributions, the posterior mean estimate of σ is determined readily as the weighted average of the means of the corresponding inverse-gamma distributions. We thus have
for .
2.3.3. Posterior median
For finding the posterior median estimate, we first obtain the posterior CDF for as follows:
In practice, considering and , we can derive the exact value of the posterior median estimate leveraging user-defined functions detailing the CDF as well as the built-in function in a software.
On the other hand, due to the fact that the marginal distribution of the scale parameter is a generalized mixture of inverse gamma distributions, the CDF of will also be a generalized mixture of inverse-gamma CDFs of the form
where denotes the CDF of an inverse gamma distribution, evaluated at σ, with shape parameter α and scale parameter β.
2.4. Bayesian posterior interval estimation
We can readily develop credible intervals with confidence level as an interval with upper bound being the value of the th percentile and the lower bound being the value of the th percentile of the derived posterior distributions. For instance, we can get a 95 credible interval by finding the 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile of the posterior distributions.
3. Normal and Laplace priors for μ
The last section developed Bayesian inference when the prior for the location parameter μ was taken to be an uniform distribution. In this section, we present the results for two other prior settings.
3.1.
In this case, the prior densities for the two Laplace parameters are considered as
where a, b, α and β are fixed constants.
Assuming that μ and σ are independent, the joint PDF of is given by
where .
Then, the PDF of can be obtained as
where
Subsequently, the posterior densities of and can be obtained as follows:
and
3.2.
In this case, the prior densities for the two Laplace parameters are considered as
where a, b, α and β are fixed constants.
Also, the joint PDF of is given by
where .
Without loss of any generality, let m be such that . Then, the PDF of can be given as
where , , , and are as presented in the Appendix.
From it, we can obtain the posterior densities of and to be
and
where , , and are as presented in the Appendix.
4. Bayesian inference for Type-I and Type-II censored data
In this section, we will extend the results derived in the preceding sections to Type-I and Type-II censored data. For illustrative purpose, we use uniform prior and inverse gamma prior for the location and scale parameters, while similar results can also be developed for other priors as well.
Suppose the life-testing experiment gets terminated at time U. For a Type-II censored sample, the experiment gets terminated at the time of the rth failure, where r is a pre-fixed number. For a Type-I censored sample, the experiment gets terminated at a pre-fixed time T, and let r denote the observed number of failures before time T. Here, r has been used for both Type-I and Type-II censored samples only for notational ease. Actually, r is a constant in the case of Type-II censoring, but a random variable in the case of Type-I censoring. Further, let U denote the termination time; i.e. and U = T for a Type-II censored sample and Type-I censored sample, respectively.
Let us assume that the observed data is . Further, let us replace all unobservable censored data, , by U, and define . We shall use this new from hereon.
In the second case when , we have used the binomial expansion, , where is the CDF of the Laplace distribution. Clearly, , according to the definition of .
As the joint distribution here takes a form similar to the one for the complete sample case, we can readily obtain the corresponding inferential results by carefully modifying the results in Section 2. We will now present the results based on cases and b>U. We choose and such that and . Note that if i>r, based on the definition of .
We then have
where
, and
The corresponding posterior PDFs of and are
and
where
Here again, is a generalized mixture of inverse-gamma distributions.
5. Illustrative examples
In this section, we apply the developed Bayesian inferential methods to some known data sets from the literature, and then use a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the methods.
Example 5.1
The data, presented in Table 1, are from [22]. These real data present the failure time of bearings when using an aviation gas turbine lubricant O-64-2 with two specific testers. The original experiment employed 10 different testers and here we choose two of them, for illustrative purpose.
Let us now assume that both data sets follow Laplace distributions with same location parameter μ and scale parameter σ. Further, the information obtained from tester 4 will be used as prior information while analyzing data from tester 2. Applying the results in [7] to tester 4 data, we first obtain the MLEs, and , as well as , , , and CIs for μ and σ. These are subsequently used to build prior distributions for μ and σ before analyzing data from tester 2. The prior distribution for μ is assumed to be uniform , where a and b are two end points of the CI of μ obtained from data from tester 4. The prior distribution for σ is assumed to be , where α and β are chosen so that the mean and variance of coincide with and . The priors so obtained are and , respectively.
We then apply the developed Bayesian inference along with the two priors for data from tester 2. The results so obtained are presented in Table 2. For visualization purpose, the posterior PDF and CDF plots for μ and σ are presented in Figures 1–4. From the plots of the posterior CDFs of the two Laplace parameters, we can readily give 95% credible intervals for μ and σ. More importantly, according to the posterior PDF plots of and , we can observe the unimodality of the posterior distribution under the two selected samples, which ensures the unique existence of the posterior mode estimates for the two Laplace parameters.
The second data, presented in Table 3, is from [14]. This data set, describing the lifetimes of lamps, involves 31 observations.
We now assume these data follow Laplace distribution . In this case, the prior mean for the location parameter μ, which is the expected lifetime of lamps, is set to be 1500 h as the manufacturer's initial technical specification claim. In addition, the prior standard deviation for μ is set to be 2000 h representing a relatively large uncertainty. With these, the prior distribution for μ is assumed to be to coincide with the above mentioned values of prior mean and standard deviation. The left end is set to be 0, due to the non-negativity of lifetimes. Furthermore, to match the moments of prior distribution of σ, the prior for σ is chosen to be .
Then, by applying the inferential results developed in the preceding section, we obtained the results presented in Table 4. Once again, for visualization purpose, the posterior PDF and CDF plots of and are presented in Figures 5–8.
In this example, we carry out a Monte Carlo simulation study for evaluating the performance of the Bayesian inference developed in the preceding sections. We perform two simulations, one with n = 10 and one with n = 31, i.e. covering both even and odd sample size cases. When n = 10, the prior distributions were assumed to be and , coinciding with the priors in Example 5.1. When n = 31, the prior distributions were assumed to be and , coinciding with the priors in Example 5.2. Based on 10,000 simulations, we first generated μ and σ from the specified prior distributions and then generated data from the associated Laplace distribution. Next, we obtained credible intervals based on the posterior distribution and evaluated whether the true values μ and σ were contained in the corresponding intervals or not. The obtained results are presented in Table 5, revealing the accuracy of the derived inference.
In this paper, we have developed Bayesian inference for the two parameters of the Laplace distribution based on three widely used priors. Upon using the non-informative and inverse gamma priors for location and scale parameters, respectively. We have presented the detailed procedure for obtaining the posterior distributions and then made use of them to develop point and interval estimation. The simulation study carried out shows the accuracy of the developed inferential methods. The Bayesian inference developed in this study demonstrates its suitability in handling real-world data and its potential to enhance analytical precision in fields that rely heavily on robust statistical modeling, such as finance and engineering, opening new avenues for applying advanced Bayesian techniques to other complex parametric distributions. Upon integrating prior knowledge with observed data, Bayesian methods offer a dynamic framework that is particularly effective in scenarios comprising incomplete or uncertain data.
There are still some limitations to the current research, which can be identified as the necessity for further research. Firstly, In this work, the unimodality of the posterior distributions has been graphically evaluated. It will be of interest to establish this property formally. Secondly, extensions of the results to multivariate Laplace distribution will be of great interest as this model is used extensively in practice; see, for example, [11,29]. Finally, it will also be of great interest to extend the results to some general censoring schemes such as progressive censoring, hybrid censoring and so on. We are currently working on these problems and hope to explore these directions in our future work, aiming to extend our findings to more broader applications.
Acknowledgments
The authors express their sincere thanks to the Editor, Associate Editor and the anonymous reviewers for their many useful suggestions and comments on the last version of this manuscript which led to this much improved version.
Appendix.
We have
where denotes the mean of with X following an inverse gamma distribution with shape and scale parameters α and β, respectively. Further,
Funding Statement
The second author was supported by Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China – The Excellent Young Scholar Programme [No. BK20220098], National Natural Science Foundation of China – Young Scientists Fund [No. 11801459], and Research Enhancement Fund of Xi'an-Jiaotong Liverpool University [No. REF-22-01-012]. The third author was supported by Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China Programme – General Programme [No. 24KJB110027], and Research Development Fund of Xi'an-Jiaotong Liverpool University [No. RDF- 19-02-19].
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
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