Abstract
Extreme temperatures threaten agriculture and exacerbate global food insecurity, yet their direct impact on dietary choices remains poorly understood. We provide the first evidence of how short-term exposures to hot or cold weather may affect macronutrient intake in China. We find that hot weather reduces carbohydrate and protein consumption but not fat intake, while cold weather increases all nutrient intakes, particularly fats. Both conditions elevate high-fat diet risks. Fans, air conditioners, and heating systems mainly mitigate these effects by altering thermal comfort, whereas refrigerators, which primarily serve to store food, show minimal impact. These results suggest that temperatures may influence dietary patterns more through physiological appetite regulation than food accessibility. Socioeconomic disparities are evident, with rural and less-educated individuals more likely to adopt high-fat diets. Projections indicate that climate change will generally increase high-fat diet probabilities, with northern regions experiencing declines and southern regions rising due to differing temperature changes.
Significance statement
Climate change poses an increasing threat to global food security, and earlier research primarily focused on how temperature affects agricultural supply. Since the specific effects on individual dietary behavior remain poorly understood, this study presents the first systematic evidence linking extreme temperatures to changes in macronutrient intake. It demonstrates how both heat and cold can influence household food consumption. These shifts in diet, particularly towards higher-fat foods, increase the risk of obesity. It may lead to significant public health challenges, especially in countries where healthcare costs associated with obesity are projected to rise sharply. These insights are essential for developing integrated strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on human health and long-term food systems.
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