This article is a written debate between the author(s) of this article and the author(s) of the opposing argument [1].
Argument
The following argument was prepared in response to the question without the knowledge of the contents of the opposing argument.
Whether or not there are cardiovascular benefits of using continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) for patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a foundational question for sleep medicine research. Answering this question is also essential to clinical practice, both for cardiovascular endpoints and other health outcomes experienced by patients. We strongly contend not only that comparing adherent to non-adherent patients can provide estimates of the causal effect of CPAP that are useful for patients, clinicians, and policymakers, but also that these comparisons are the most appropriate way to answer this foundational question.
Given the high health costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD) [2] and established links between OSA and CVD [3, 4], many have investigated whether and in whom CPAP has cardiovascular benefits. Observational studies indicate that OSA is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular endpoints, including myocardial infarction [5], stroke [6], heart failure [7], and mortality [8]. Similarly, longitudinal studies demonstrate that CPAP reduces cardiovascular risk [9]. However, recent randomized trials (RCTs) building on this evidence have not found reductions in cardiovascular risk in participants randomized to CPAP [10–12]. Among several issues that may explain these inconsistent results [13–15], one particularly relevant to the present argument is poor adherence among those randomized to CPAP [16]. Without methods for ensuring high adherence among all participants randomized to therapy, which have not yet proven effective [16–19], RCTs are answering the question of whether assigning CPAP improves outcomes. This differs from the foundational question of the benefits of using CPAP, which can only be answered in RCTs using per-protocol analyses that lose the benefits of randomization.
Given poor adherence in RCTs, the most sensible way to understand the benefits of using CPAP is to directly compare adherent versus non-adherent patients. Notably, when recent RCTs performed these comparisons using causal inference techniques, results supported the benefits of CPAP consistent with observational data [10–13, 20]. However, RCTs often enroll patients who are not representative of those seen clinically [21]. The common exclusion of excessively sleepy patients is particularly problematic, as most recent studies [22–26], but not all [27, 28], suggest that these patients are more likely to experience adverse cardiovascular outcomes and, thus, cardiovascular benefits from CPAP. Thus, we assert that causal effects from comparisons of adherent versus non-adherent patients are most useful when estimated in real-world observational datasets containing more representative samples of patients.
Estimating treatment effects from this seemingly straightforward comparison requires causal inference techniques and consideration of the appropriate causal estimands [29–33]. The “potential outcomes” framework [34], which considers the outcomes (Yi) a specific patient would have experienced if they were adherent [Yi(adherent)] or non-adherent [Yi(non-adherent)] to CPAP, is helpful to formalize these concepts. As “each potential outcome is observable, but we can never observe them all” [35], the goal of causal inference is to estimate the unobserved potential outcome and quantify the causal effect of treatment (i.e. the expected difference in potential outcomes, denoted E[Yi(adherent)−Yi(non-adherent)]). Three such causal estimands are often defined based on the target population of interest:
The average treatment effect (ATE) is the average effect of CPAP within the full population of adherent and non-adherent individuals.
The ATE on the treated (ATT) is the average effect of CPAP among adherent patients (i.e. the “treated”), or the benefit these patients received from adhering to CPAP compared to their potential outcomes had these specific patients been non-adherent.
The ATE on the Control (ATC) is the equivalent estimand among non-adherent patients (i.e. the “controls”).
To obtain these estimands, the expected differences in potential outcomes are derived with respect to all participants (ATE), only treated participants (ATT), or only controls (ATC), using appropriate weighting of samples or group differences (see further below) [30, 33]. Conditional causal estimands (CATE, CATT, and CATC) may also be defined by further restricting the target populations based on specific covariate values. While these estimands are, in theory, identical in RCTs, they may differ in observational data due to differences in the characteristics of each target sample (e.g. covariate differences between adherent versus non-adherent patients). When estimating the benefits of using CPAP from non-randomized comparisons, the ATT estimand may be of particular interest, as it provides a valid causal estimate of the benefit of CPAP in a population with characteristics similar to adherent patients.
The robustness of these causal estimands relies on the ability to satisfy three assumptions – conditional exchangeability, positivity, and consistency [32, 36–39]. Exchangeability asserts that the adherent and non-adherent groups share similar distributions of outcome predictors (e.g. no unmeasured confounding), with conditional exchangeability implying this holds conditional on covariates (e.g. within matched pairs or covariate-based subclasses). Positivity asserts that the probability of being adherent cannot be 0 or 1 for any subset defined by combinations of covariates; violating this extrapolates beyond observed data. Consistency assumes that the exposure is defined such that the observed outcome accurately represents the true (potential) outcome on treatment (e.g. there are not multiple versions of the exposure that differentially affect outcomes) [37, 38]. Rubin [35] expresses these concepts in terms of a “stable unit treatment value (SUTV)” assumption containing two components: no interference (i.e. each participant’s potential outcomes are not affected by other participants’ outcomes) and no hidden versions of treatment (related to consistency). Methods for deriving causal estimands within observational data focus on creating samples and estimates for which these assumptions hold.
Propensity score (PS) designs are one common approach to deriving causal estimands from non-randomized comparisons [29, 30]. These designs focus on creating a sample of treated (e.g. adherent) and untreated (e.g. non-adherent) patients balanced with respect to a rich set of baseline covariates related to the outcome of interest. When effectively implemented, PS designs permit valid causal interpretations of the estimated group differences (under the above-mentioned assumptions) [40]. An optimal design should result in overlapping PS distributions (e.g. positivity) and very small differences in baseline covariates between groups after accounting for the design (e.g. conditional exchangeability) [41], thereby greatly reducing potential bias, if not eliminating it entirely. Within this design, causal estimands can be derived by appropriately weighting the group differences [30, 33]. For example, in PS subclassification the ATE estimand is obtained by weighting the within-subclass differences by the total sample size in each subclass, whereas the ATT estimand is obtained by weighting within-subclass differences by the total number of treated patients in each subclass [30, 33].
A common misperception is that accurately predicting the exposure (e.g. CPAP adherence) is necessary in PS designs. Not only is this unnecessary, it can be counter-productive. Including variables related to exposure but unrelated to outcome will worsen precision of the estimated treatment effect without decreasing bias, while including variables in the design that are unrelated to exposure but related to outcome can improve precision without increasing bias [42]. This is profoundly important. It implies that it is vital to understand factors associated with the outcome (e.g. cardiovascular events) and then, through the design, ensure that the exposure groups are balanced on these factors. Thus, the ability to derive causal estimates from comparisons between adherent and non-adherent patients is limited by the ability to achieve exchangeability for variables related to cardiovascular endpoints. Hence, an essential part of the design process is engaging both cardiovascular and sleep experts to identify an extensive covariate set including most factors expected to influence cardiovascular risk. To avoid controlling for mediators or inducing biased associations, it is important to carefully consider the expected relationships and pathways linking adherence, covariates, and outcomes; drawing and interpreting directed acyclic graphs (or “DAGs”) can be particularly useful [39, 43, 44]. Ultimately, if adherent and non-adherent patients are balanced for all consensus confounders of cardiovascular outcomes, then it matters little how well we understand other factors related to CPAP adherence.
Notably, obtaining some of these data may require significant effort. Variables often overlooked or unmeasured include exercise [45], diet [46], and healthy user/healthy adherer status [47, 48]. Along with correlations with general health measures (e.g. obesity), validated questionnaires are likely to sufficiently capture bias due to imbalance in diet [49] or exercise [50]. Regarding healthy user/adherer biases, studies show patients adherent to placebo have improved cardiovascular outcomes [51, 52]. Although it is reasonable to assume that patients adherent to CPAP behave similarly to those adherent to placebo, data are mixed regarding whether CPAP adherent patients differ in their use of cardiovascular medications compared to non-adherent patients [53, 54]. To measure the propensity to be a healthy user/adherer, demographics, lifestyle and socioeconomic factors, and data from electronic health records (preventative screenings, vaccinations, prescriptions, and medication refills) are likely useful [47, 55, 56]. Creative designs can also mitigate bias [47]. Analyses could be restricted to patients engaging in specific behaviors correlated with healthy user/adherer status (e.g. requiring that all included patients received recommended vaccinations). Causal estimands that were conditional on being a healthy user/adherer can be compared to the same estimands in those not engaged in relevant health-related behaviors to understand bias or effect modification. Ultimately, to ensure meaningful comparisons between adherent and non-adherent patients, careful planning and resource allocation to measure these variables is needed.
Careful consideration of exposure definitions is also important. For longer-term outcomes, CPAP exposure may be constructed to represent adequate/consistent adherence over time and the unexposed condition constructed to represent no more than clinically trivial use. Thus, by design, there are only two observable treatment sequences. These constructions are especially appropriate for ATT estimands, where the objective is to replace the adherent patient’s “missing” potential outcome under the non-adherent condition using data from non-adherent patients that are exchangeable (e.g. have similar covariates). It is also possible to evaluate additional patterns of adherence (e.g. more variable use over time), which may be especially appropriate for shorter-term outcomes. Notably, adherence over time may depend on time-varying confounders. One way to account for these factors is using marginal structural models [57], where observations are weighted by the inverse of the estimated probability of receiving the observed sequence of treatments the individual actually received (termed “inverse probability of treatment weighting [IPTW]”).
After careful design and estimation of causal treatment effects, additional analyses can enhance understanding. For determining robustness to unobserved confounders, the E-value quantifies the magnitude of association that an unmeasured confounder needs to have with both exposure (e.g. CPAP adherence) and outcome (e.g. cardiovascular events), independent of included covariates, to negate the observed effects [58]. While this requires some subjectivity, put simply, the larger the E-value the more robust the association. Including a rich set of covariates can minimize the likelihood that an important independent confounder is missed. Data from observational designs may also be used to examine mediators (e.g. changes in BMI) or effect modifiers (e.g. subgroup analyses) of treatment effects to better understand generalizability. To evaluate effect modification, conditional causal estimands from PS designs in samples defined by each level of the covariate(s) can be compared. Together, these robustly designed comparisons and downstream analyses can maximize the usefulness of the estimated treatment effects.
Importantly, we must not lose sight of the clinical usefulness of these causal estimates, even if uncertainties remain. Often, RCTs are not required to provide evidence of sufficient quality for use by clinicians and policymakers [59]. Appropriately educating patients on the risks and likely outcomes of OSA could help to motivate acceptance and adherence to CPAP [19], which effectively treats OSA regardless of its long-term impact on cardiovascular risk. Should well-designed observational studies consistently show cardiovascular benefits of using CPAP, there is clinical utility in advising patients of the potential long-term benefits of adhering to therapy, even if we can never be 100% certain of no unmeasured confounding. Moreover, it seems preferable that this advice be rooted in comparisons from representative samples of patients who used CPAP versus those who did not, rather than a highly selected sample of patients randomized to therapy or no therapy (many of whom are non-adherent). Supporting the validity of this approach, the recent RCT-DUPLICATE initiative [60] shows good agreement between causal estimands from PS-designed observational studies and RCTs, particularly when the RCT can be closely emulated; similar studies on CPAP would be greatly beneficial. Consistent with this is the reality that differences between causal estimands in RCTs and observational data do not immediately imply a failure of the observational design, but could also reflect differences or limitations of the RCT.
Ultimately, it is crucial to recognize that estimating causal effects of CPAP on cardiovascular endpoints from comparisons between adherent and non-adherent patients is useful, rather than abandoning this knowledge in pursuit of a perfectly unbiased comparison or default to randomized comparisons of patients assigned to CPAP or no CPAP who do not represent patients seen in clinical practice [21].
Rebuttal to Opposing Argument
The following was prepared in response to the opposing argument [1].
We appreciate the viewpoint raised by Patel et al. in their opposing argument [1]. We agree on limitations of existing trials [13] and the need for carefully designed studies that include representative patients to understand the cardiovascular benefits of CPAP. However, as discussed below, there are flaws in the arguments leading to the authors’ conclusions that “opportunities to conduct feasible randomized clinical trials” [1] should be the focus of investigators seeking to understand the cardiovascular benefits of using CPAP.
The authors begin their argument against the usefulness of comparisons of adherent and non-adherent patients by noting that these comparisons “violate the core design principle of analysis by intent-to-treat” [1]. While it is true that reliance on a per protocol sample likely lessens the benefits of randomization, thereby requiring additional methods to mitigate bias, Patel et al overlook the fact that the estimand obtained from the intent-to-treat sample does not address the specific question at hand. Notably, the FDA [61] defines intention-to-treat as:
The principle that asserts that the effect of a treatment policy can be best assessed by evaluating on the basis of the intention to treat a subject (i.e., the planned treatment regimen) rather than the actual treatment given.
Thus, analyses under the intention-to-treat principle can inform treatment policy recommendations (e.g. regarding the cardiovascular benefit of prescribing CPAP). By design, intention-to-treat analyses do not estimate the benefits of actually using CPAP (the question of clinical/scientific interest in this debate). The same FDA guidance [61] defines per protocol as:
The set of data generated by the subset of subjects who complied with the protocol sufficiently to ensure that these data would be likely to exhibit the effects of treatment according to the underlying scientific model.
Therefore, to best understand the benefits of using treatment, rather than those attributable to the treatment policy, per protocol estimands are required. Without programs that ensure near-perfect adherence among those randomized to CPAP [18], the large proportion of patients excluded from such per-protocol analyses due to poor adherence requires well-designed causal inference approaches to derive these estimands through comparisons of adherent and non-adherent patients.
In considering these comparisons, the authors raise valid concerns surrounding the benefits of adherence to placebo. While we believe that there are unique challenges with complying with CPAP [53, 54], meaning that non-adherent patients will still exhibit other healthy behaviors, we concede that healthy user/adherer biases have likely not been sufficiently addressed in prior studies. However, this does not prevent future studies from doing so. Investment in well-designed studies that capture detailed information on healthy behaviors, which is becoming increasingly accessible through electronic health records, is needed. The same is true for known cardiovascular risk factors and determinants of cardiovascular health not readily available. As a first step, studies focused on identifying optimal approaches to quantifying healthy user/adherer biases and understanding how CPAP adherence is unique would be greatly beneficial. We contend that investment in causal inference will prove more worthwhile than investing in more large-scale randomized studies that do not include fully representative groups of patients [21] and are plagued by inadequate adherence [16], even if the opportunity for such trials arises.
When discussing causal inference designs, Patel et al. argue multiple times that predicting adherence to CPAP is required or that the inability to do so implies that these designs are not useful [1]. The authors go so far as to suggest that, “At a minimum, studies reporting such PS adjustments should report the proportion of variance in adherence that is explained by the PS” [1]. Here, they have succumbed to the common misperception noted in our Pro argument. The goal of PS designs specifically, and causal inference generally, is not to predict adherence but, rather, to create exchangeability between treated and untreated patients for covariates associated with outcomes [42, 62]. Efforts should focus on identifying, measuring, and creating balance on factors related to cardiovascular risk, not on predicting CPAP adherence. Importantly, studies have already shown an ability to predict future cardiovascular risk, including well-established risk factors and many clinically utilized risk scores [63, 64]. This literature, and not the literature on predictors of CPAP adherence, provides foundational information on factors to consider in the design of causal inference studies determining the cardiovascular benefits of using CPAP.
The authors raise important considerations regarding the potential for time-varying confounding in observational designs. However, overlooked is the fact that randomized trials, particularly with long-term endpoints, are not immune from post-randomization confounding and selection bias [65]. In addition to the IPTW approach noted in our counterpoint, Robins and Hernan [66] describe a broader class of approaches (termed g methods [67]) that should be considered when deriving causal estimates in the context of such confounding. If controlling for post-baseline factors, researchers must take care not to adjust for mediating variables.
Ultimately, we should not simply position randomization as a panacea for overcoming difficulties in understanding the benefits of CPAP. Randomized trials are important and powerful, but there is a tendency to overlook their shortcomings [68]. Data suggest that, despite common perceptions, well-designed observational studies generally do not overestimate treatment effects [69, 70] and can be complementary to randomized studies. While randomization may be preferred “all else being equal,” all else is not equal when attempting to understand the cardiovascular benefits of using CPAP. Patients in randomized studies do not represent those seen clinically [21] and, even if eligible, it seems unlikely that symptomatic patients will want to be randomized to no therapy for many years. Poor adherence to CPAP among randomized patients requires per-protocol comparisons of adherent versus non-adherent patients to understand the benefits of using treatment, rather than simply obtaining treatment policy insights from intention-to-treat analyses. These issues will persist even in opportunities where randomized trials are feasible.
Thus, rather than accepting “that the proliferation of studies comparing adherent to non-adherent patients does not provide useful estimates of the causal effect of CPAP” [1], we contend that the field needs to recognize the inability of randomized trials to answer some fundamental questions about the benefits of using CPAP, and commit to investing in well-designed causal inference studies that can better inform real-world clinical decisions.
Contributor Information
Brendan T Keenan, Division of Sleep Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Ulysses J Magalang, Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Columbus, OH, USA.
Greg Maislin, Division of Sleep Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Funding
Professor Maislin and Mr. Keenan lead the Biostatistics Core in the Division of Sleep Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, which is supported by National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) grant P01 HL160471 (Developing a P4 Medicine Approach to Obstructive Sleep Apnea).
Disclosure Statement
Professor Maislin is also Principal Biostatistician of Biomedical Statistical Consulting (Wynnewood, PA) and has supported numerous medical device studies that have used propensity score methods to achieve regulatory approval, unrelated to the present article. Mr. Keenan has supported these efforts in the role of the outcomes-blinded PS design statistician and receives compensation from Biomedical Statistical Consulting for this and other work. Dr. Magalang has no disclosures to report.
Data Availability
No new data were generated or analyzed in support of this research.
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Data Availability Statement
No new data were generated or analyzed in support of this research.
