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. 2025 May 28;20(5):e0324821. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0324821

Geriatric ocular trauma and mortality: A retrospective cohort study

Vincent Q Pham 1, Hannah M Miller 2, Elise O Fernandez 2, Daniel de Marchi 3, Elizabeth Budi 4, Hongtu Zhu 3, David Fleischman 2,*
Editor: Abdelaziz Abdelaal5
PMCID: PMC12118826  PMID: 40434983

Abstract

Purpose

The objective of this investigation is to evaluate the 5-year mortality of geriatric patients who have sustained eye injuries.

Design

This retrospective cohort study included patients aged 65 years or older who had histories of either ocular trauma or age-related nuclear cataracts.

Subjects and controls: Patients with ocular trauma constituted the study group, while those with a history of cataracts served as controls.

Methods

Data from the I2B2 Carolina Data Warehouse were analyzed. Patient demographics were collected, and the outcomes of interest were the overall mortality rate and annual mortality rates over a 5-year period. Chi-squared tests were utilized for the comparison of mortality data.

Main outcomes and measures

The primary outcomes were overall mortality rates and annual mortality rates expressed as percentages.

Results

The study group consisted of 602 patients who had suffered ocular trauma. The control group included 1066 patients of similar age who had been diagnosed with age-related nuclear cataracts at some point in their lives. Among the study group, 74 patients died within 5 years, while 69 patients in the control group died within the same timeframe, resulting in a study group mortality rate of 11.30% and a control group mortality rate of 6.47%. For patients with ocular trauma, the annual mortality rates were 4.15%, 2.60%, 1.96%, 2.54%, and 0.56%, respectively. For the control group, the annual mortality rates were 1.03%, 1.70%, 1.64%, 0.88%, and 1.38% respectively.

Conclusion

The study suggests that geriatric patients who have experienced ocular trauma are at a higher risk of mortality compared to age-matched controls without such injuries. These findings highlight the necessity of identifying the causes of geriatric periorbital trauma and underscore the importance of close patient follow-up to improve outcomes.

Introduction

Ocular trauma is a leading cause of vision loss and visual disability, contributing to 65% of unilateral blindness cases [1]. It accounts for up to 52% of ophthalmic accidents and emergency cases and is a significant cause of ocular morbidity [2]. Falls, a predominant cause of injury in the geriatric population, may lead to death, morbidity, or damaged periocular tissue [2]. Current research on geriatric ocular trauma is limited, as is a well-defined system to classify orbital and adnexal trauma. For the purposes of this paper, ‘ocular trauma’ will encompass globe, orbital, and adnexal injuries. This study focuses on mortality rates associated with traumatic eye injuries as compared to non-traumatic cataract patients.

Orbital fractures, a common form of ocular trauma, can occur in any of the bones forming the orbit and often result from blunt force trauma. These fractures may lead to entrapment of extraocular muscles, enophthalmos, and decreased ocular motility [3]. Among the most common injuries from facial trauma, orbital fractures can lead to debilitating ocular dysfunction [4,5]. Such fractures are prevalent in the geriatric population, especially among those with complex medical histories [4].

Periorbital trauma, a more recent classification of ocular injury, can affect both the superficial and deep parts of the orbit as well as periocular, frontal, temporal, and malar regions [6]. Injuries may include damage to the levator palpebrae superioris, orbital fracture, skin lacerations, tearing of the medial canthus, or conjunctival damage [6]. The onset of functional deficits such as ptosis and enophthalmos may occur thereafter [6]. Falls may also cause full-thickness rupture or penetrating injury to the eye itself, resulting in permanent vision loss.

Falls are linked to increased mortality rates among the elderly, who often sustain intracranial injuries as a result [7]. Geriatric patients are susceptible to head injuries due to diminished reflexes, movement speed, and muscle strength associated with aging [7]. Furthermore, advancements in technology and medical treatments have enabled longer lifespans, but often with multiple chronic conditions. These conditions, along with physiologic impairments, can hinder older patients’ response to emergencies such as falls. While numerous studies have explored the association between falls, mortality, open globe injuries, and visual outcomes following eye injuries [7,8], there is a notable gap in research focusing on ocular trauma as a risk factor for geriatric mortality.

Falls are a leading cause of morbidity in the elderly. Over 33% of individuals aged 65 years or older fall annually, a figure that doubles when cognitive impairment is present [9]. To minimize falling risks, patients need a normal gait and efficient neurosensory processing [9]. Aging commonly leads to balance impairment, decreased motor strength, and visual impairments, increasing the risk of falls [9]. Additional risk factors for falls in geriatric patients include environmental hazards, frailty, vestibular disorders, cognitive impairment, and side effects from medications [10]. For a fall to result in ocular trauma, there must be a failure in the protective reflexes that guard the face, as it is instinctive to shield the eyes and head during a fall. We hypothesize that ocular trauma from falls may signify early neurologic and systemic decline in elderly patients. Neurodegeneration can impact executive functions and gait, thereby increasing fall propensity in the elderly, particularly those with dementia [11]. This study investigates patients with periorbital injury, orbital fractures, and ocular trauma who visit healthcare facilities within 5 years post-injury, focusing on their mortality rates in comparison with non-traumatic cataract patients.

Materials & methods

This retrospective cohort study utilized data from the I2B2 University of North Carolina (UNC) database, offering an overview of patients within the UNC Health Care system and enabling researchers to query aggregate data. The dataset included patients aged 65 and older evaluated at UNC hospitals between April 2011 and June 2016, with a minimum of five years of follow-up. To ensure comparability despite sample size differences, we performed a secondary covariate-matched analysis, demonstrating consistent mortality trends. The study group consisted of patients who sustained ocular trauma. The control group comprised patients of the same age range diagnosed with nuclear sclerotic cataracts at any point, with a minimum follow-up of 5 years or until the time of death.

We applied a filter and search for patients 65 or older meeting the inclusion criteria of ocular trauma with a 5-year follow-up from the time of presentation or a documented time of death. The study group presented with injuries such as those to the eye and orbit, open wounds of the eyelid and periocular area, fractures of the orbital floor, facial bones, injury to the conjunctiva, contusion of the eyeball, ocular laceration, penetrating wounds of the orbit, or avulsion of the eye. The control group consisted of patients with age-related nuclear cataracts. We excluded those with multisystem trauma, victims of transport accidents, homicide, assault, vehicle accidents, intentional injuries, or those who died within one month of presentation to minimize bias in mortality rate statistics. Exclusions aimed to remove deaths due to external trauma rather than systemic health decline. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that excluding these cases did not significantly impact the study’s mortality trends. Further details on inclusion and exclusion criteria are available in “Fig 1”. The resulting study and control groups were collectively designated as the pre-matching group.

Fig 1. Exclusion Criteria and Covariate Matching.

Fig 1

After exclusion, 602 patients had ocular trauma, whereas 1066 patients had a history of cataracts. Both groups were assessed within a 5-year follow-up period. Covariate matching was performed based on initial medical conditions including cardiovascular and neurological conditions resulting in 141 patients in the final study group and 141 patients in the final control group.

Python was used to code various data aspects, including mortality and diagnoses. We calculated the overall mortality rate and the mortality rates at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years, detailed in “Table 1”. Statistical analyses evaluated mortality by age, decade, and sex.

Table 1. Mortality rates of control vs study in Pre-Matching Group.

Control Group Study Group P-value
# of Patients 1066 602
# of deaths 69 68
Overall Mortality 6.47% 11.3% 0.0056
1 Yr Mortality 1.03% 4.15% <0.0001
2 Yr Mortality 1.71% 2.6% 0.21498
3 Yr Mortality 1.64% 1.96% 0.63122
4 Yr Mortality 0.88% 2.54% 0.00694
5 Yr Mortality 1.38% 0.56% 0.12114

There is a noticeable increase in 1-year mortality in the study group which contains patients with ocular trauma.

Data were further segmented into post-matching groups to examine mortality through a system-based perspective, particularly patient comorbidities. We conducted 1:1 covariate matching based on initial diagnoses at presentation to align study and control groups with comparable baseline characteristics, allowing for controlled comparison of mortality data across cardiovascular and neurological diseases. We matched patients in the study group and control group using a nearest-neighbor algorithm based on various systemic, neurologic, and cardiovascular comorbidities considering diseases such as heart disease, vascular disease, hypertension, neurodegenerative disease, dementia, etc. at baseline. We also considered patient age during this process, resulting in a robust post-match patient sample. Further details on covariate matching are available in “Fig 1”. These disease categories for covariate matching are outlined in “Table 2”. Cardiovascular comorbidities encompassed cardiac arrhythmias, type 2 diabetes, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, vascular disease, and hypertensive heart diseases. Neurological comorbidities included dementia, degenerative diseases of the nervous system, polyneuropathies, encephalopathy, Alzheimer’s disease, and Parkinson’s disease. Diagnoses were evaluated using North Carolina I2B2 guidelines. So, if the patient presented to the hospital before 2015, we would use ICD-9 codes to index the diagnosis. For patients that presented after 2015, we used ICD-10 codes to index the diagnosis. Mortality was computed across patient sex and age decade.

Table 2. List of cardiovascular and neurological morbidities evaluated in post-matching groups.

Cardiovascular diseases Neurologic diseases Other
Cardiac arrhythmias
Ischemic heart diseases
Heart failure
Atherosclerosis, aortic aneurysm, peripheral vascular disease, atheroembolism or disease of capillaries
Hypertensive heart diseases including essential primary hypertension, hypertensive heart disease, secondary hypertension, hypertensive crisis
Dementia
Degenerative diseases of nervous system
Polyneuropathies and other disorders of peripheral nervous system not from infectious disease
Encephalopathy
Alzheimer’s disease
Parkinson’s disease
Type 2 diabetes mellitus

Demographics, surgical history, insurance status, ophthalmic history, injury timing, comorbidities, and mortality were extracted and coded according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) guidelines. Diagnoses and procedures were coded in ICD-9 format for presentations before 2015 and in ICD-10 format thereafter. We incorporated both ICD-9 and ICD-10 coding systems to ensure comprehensive data collection. Using the Carolina Data Warehouse for Health as an initial data source, we developed a Python script on Jupyter Notebook to extract relevant patient data and perform analyses. We accessed this data on September 17, 2021, and again on January 1, 2022. Institutional Review Board (IRB) and Ethics Committee approval were secured in line with UNC guidelines, adhering to the Declaration of Helsinki.

We utilized two-sided chi-squared tests to compare the mean mortality rates of male and female patients presenting with ocular trauma. The alpha level was set at 0.05 for significance testing, with a Bonferroni correction to maintain a family-wise error rate of 0.05, resulting in an adjusted alpha level of 0.025 for individual tests. The hypothesis testing was conducted using Scipy 1.9 within the Python 3.7 environment. In addition to chi-squared tests, we performed a Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for age, sex, cardiovascular conditions, and neurological conditions. Results confirmed the significant association between ocular trauma and increased mortality risk.

Results

To mitigate potential bias, patients who were victims of transport accidents, homicide, assault, vehicle accidents, intentional injury, or who died within 1 month of presentation were excluded. Consequently, 97 patients were removed from the study group and 33 from the control group. Detailed inclusion and exclusion criteria are depicted in “Fig 1”.

Patient demographics

The pre-matching group encompassed 1668 patients: 602 in the study group and 1066 in the control group. Within the control group, 624 (58.5%) were female and 442 (41.4%) were male, with a mean age of 75.6 and a median age of 75. Racial demographics revealed 745 (69.8%) white, 212 (19.8%) black or African American, 29 (2.7%) Asian, 53 (4.9%) of other races, and 23 (2.1%) unknown. In the study group, 391 (64.9%) were female and 211 (35.0%) were male, with a mean age of 80.7 years and a median age of 80. This group included 502 (83.3%) white, 64 (10.6%) black or African American, 10 (1.6%) Asian, 11 (1.8%) of other races, and 14 (2.3%) with unknown racial backgrounds. Additional demographic information is provided in “Table 3”.

Table 3. Patient demographics of subjects in pre-matching and post-matching groups.

Patient Demographics Pre-matching control group (n = 1066) (%) Pre-matching study group (n = 602) (%) Post-matching control group (n = 141) (%) Post-matching study group (n = 141) (%)
Age
Mean age 75.6 80.7 76.2 81.8
Median Age 75 80 76 81
Minimum Age 61 65 64 68
Maximum Age 100 103 100 102
Sex
Female 624 (58.5) 391 (64.9) 87 (61.7) 93 (65.9)
Male 442 (41.4) 211 (35.0) 54 (38.2) 48 (34.0)
Race
White 745 (69.8) 502 (83.3) 105 (74.4) 114 (80.8)
Black or African American 212 (19.8) 64 (10.6) 29 (20.5) 22 (15.6)
Asian 29 (2.7) 10 (1.6) 2 (1.4) 2 (1.4)
Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander 0 (0) 0 (0) 1 (0.7) 0 (0)
Other 53 (4.9) 11 (1.8) 3 (2.1) 2 (1.4)
Unknown 23 (2.1) 14 (2.3) 1 (0.7) 1 (0.7)
Ethnicity
Non-Hispanic 996 (93.4) 576 (95.6) 137 (97.1) 138 (97.8)
Hispanic 39 (3.6) 6 (0.9) 2 (1.4) 2 (1.4)
Unknown 26 (2.4) 17 (2.8) 2 (1.4) 1 (0.7)
Insurance Status
Medicare/Medicaid/State Government NA NA 128 (90.7) 134 (95.0)
Private NA NA 8 (5.6) 2 (1.4)
Self-Pay NA NA 5 (3.5) 5 (3.5)

NA: Not available.

The post-matching group was formed through covariate matching and comprised 141 patients in both the study and control groups. See “Fig 1” for further details. In the study group, 93 (65.9%) were female and 48 (34.0%) were male, with a mean age of 81.8 and a median age of 81. Among these, 114 (80.8%) were white, 22 (15.6%) were black, 2 (1.4%) were Asian, 2 (1.4%) of other racial backgrounds, and 2 (0.7%) were of unknown race. The control group included 87 (61.7%) female and 54 (38.2%) male patients, with a mean age of 76.2 and a median age of 76, comprising 105 (74.4%) white, 29 (20.5%) black, 3 (2.1%) Asian/Pacific Islander, 3 (2.1%) of other races, and 1 (0.7%) unknown. Patient demographics for the post-matching group are summarized in “Table 3”.

Mortality data – Pre-matching group

Within 5 years, 68 of the 602 patients with ocular trauma died, equating to an overall mortality rate of 11.3% (95% CI, 1.89%−7.778%; p = 0.00056). Meanwhile, among the 1066 control patients with a history of cataracts, 69 died, resulting in an overall mortality rate of 6.4%. Mortality rates at yearly intervals for the study group were 4.1%, 2.6%, 1.9%, 2.5%, and 0.5%, whereas the control group exhibited rates of 1.0%, 1.7%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 1.3%. The study group’s 1-year mortality rate of 4.1% was significantly higher than the control’s 1.0% (95% CI, 1.42%−4.82%; p < 0.00001), as was the 4-year rate of 2.5% compared to the control’s 0.8% (95% CI, 0.28%−3.04%; p = 0.00694). The higher first-year mortality suggests acute health decline following trauma, while subsequent fluctuations may reflect underlying variability in systemic deterioration. Mortality rates for years 2, 3, and 5 did not show statistically significant differences. These data are represented in “Table 1”.

Mortality data – Post-matching group

Of the post-matching group, the study group experienced 68 deaths (48.2%), whereas the control group had 19 (13.4%), yielding a mortality rate of 48.23% in the study group compared to 13.48% in the control group (95% CI, 24.76%−44.74%; p < 0.00001), as detailed in “Table 4”. Subgroup analyses for mortality by age and sex were conducted to determine specific risk elevations. Female mortality in the study group was 43% (95% CI, 19.43%−43.61%; p = 0.000032) versus 11% in the control group. Male mortality was 58% (95% CI, 24.54%−58.79%; p = 0.003245) in the study group against 17% in the control. Age-stratified data indicated significantly higher mortality rates in the study group for ages 70–79 at 33% (95% CI, 8.28%−37.05%; p = 0.003245) and for ages 80–89 at 55% (95% CI, 22.30%−57.40%; p = 0.0004317), compared to 10.6% and 15.1% in the control group, respectively. Age-stratified analyses confirmed consistent mortality trends within each age group. There were no significant mortality rate differences in the age brackets of 65–69 and 90 + . This was recorded in “Table 5”. This suggests that mortality rates are not significantly different between the study and control groups for the youngest (65–69) and oldest (90+) cohorts. Across all other age groups and both sexes, significant differences were observed. Mortality rates by comorbidities in the post-matching group were recorded but not statistically analyzed; these values are presented in “Table 6”.

Table 4. Mortality data of control vs study in post-matching group.

Control Study Group P-value
# of Patients 141 141
# of Deaths 19 68
Overall Mortality 13.48% 48.23% <0.00001

Table 5. Mortality data in post-matching group by age and sex.

Death Rate Study Group Death Rate Control Group Actual P-value Target P-value
Female 43% 11% 0.000032 0.025
Male 58% 17% 0.000005337 0.025
60 years 50% 19% 0.4445 0.01
70 years 33% 10.667% 0.003245 0.01
80 years 55% 15.152% 0.0004317 0.01
90 years 66.667% 0% 0.05584 0.01
100 years 50% 0% 0.9999 0.01

Table 6. Mortality data in post-matching group by comorbidities.

Comorbidities Death in study Group Total patients in study group Death Rate Death in control group Total patients in control group Death Rate
Cardiac arrhythmias 33 47 70% 0 37 0
Type 2 Diabetes 18 34 53% 6 31 19%
Ischemic heart diseases 16 19 84% 0 14 0
Heart failure 16 24 67% 0 20 0
Dementia 23 25 92% 0 16 0
Degenerative diseases of nervous system 13 18 72% 0 12 0
Polyneuropathies and other disorders of peripheral nervous system 2 4 50% 1 5 20%
Encephalopathy 0 1 0 0 1 0
Alzheimer’s Disease 6 9 67% 0 6 0
Parkinson’s Disease 0 1 0 0 1 0
Atherosclerosis, aortic aneurysm, peripheral vascular disease, atheroembolism, disease of capillaries 22 30 73% 0 22 0
Hypertensive heart diseases including essential primary hypertension, hypertensive heart disease, secondary hypertension, hypertensive crisis 51 91 56% 0 69 0

In the post-matching group, which contains patients with similar baseline medical conditions and comorbidities, the mortality rate is higher in patients with ocular trauma.

The mortality rate in patients in their 70s and 80s was significantly higher in patients with ocular trauma when compared to patients who had a history of cataracts.

Discussion

Falls significantly contribute to severe injuries and mortality in the elderly, with over 800,000 patients hospitalized annually due to fall-related incidents, particularly for hip fractures and head injuries [12]. Despite numerous studies on visual deficits and the frequency of falls resulting in patient hospitalizations or ocular morbidity, none have specifically addressed the correlation between ocular trauma and mortality [1315]. To incur an injury to the eye or orbit during a fall possibly suggests a failure in the instinctive protective responses that typically guard the face. Our study investigates whether such a breakdown of protective mechanisms in elderly individuals correlates with increased mortality within 5 years following an ocular injury.

In the pre-matching group, the study group demonstrated a higher likelihood of mortality within 5 years compared to controls. Notably, individuals with ocular trauma had a higher mortality rate within 1-year post-hospitalization. The post-matching group revealed that elderly patients in their 70s and 80s who suffered ocular trauma were more likely to die than their age-matched counterparts without such trauma.

Elderly falls are often accompanied by trauma-related mortality, commonly in conjunction with intracranial injuries [7]. From 2008 to 2013, falls resulted in over 100,000 deaths in the US within the geriatric population, who frequently possess chronic comorbidities such as visual deficits, cognitive impairment, and heart disease [7]. Few studies have evaluated mortality rates associated with traumatic eye injuries. Our research is among the first to examine mortality among geriatric patients with ocular trauma compared with an age-matched control group. We also assessed annual and overall mortality rates while accounting for cardiovascular and neurological comorbidities. Our findings indicate a significantly increased mortality rate in patients with ocular trauma within 1 year, suggesting a rapid systemic decline post-trauma.

Advancements in medical technology have led to longer lifespans, though often burdened with chronic diseases, coining the term “frailty” for patients who are biologically and psychosocially compromised [8]. Our study addresses clinical outcomes in such patients by evaluating mortality subsequent to a traumatic eye injury, highlighting how ocular trauma may signal substantial systemic decline and physiological impairment in the elderly. Ocular trauma may serve as a sentinel event signaling underlying frailty rather than a direct cause of mortality. Ocular injury from a fall implies a failure in natural protective reflexes, potentially foreshadowing cognitive deficits, visual impairment, or other systemic diseases increasing mortality risk. Henry et al. found that frailty correlates with increased mortality in hospitalizations for open globe injuries, reinforcing our results of heightened mortality in patients with ocular trauma [8]. These findings carry substantial public health and individual healthcare implications, calling for enhanced preventative measures in this high-risk demographic.

Kodali et al. conducted a retrospective study using data from the National Trauma Data Bank to explore the demographics, patterns, mechanisms, and mortality of patients who sustained ocular injuries, often within the context of major multisystem trauma [16]. They found that over 80% of the deceased patients had experienced traumatic brain injury, and associations were noted between severe injuries to the optic nerve and visual pathways and both Glasgow Coma Scale scores and mortality rates [16]. Their research highlighted traumatic optic neuropathy as a prevalent diagnosis following visual pathway injury. The optic nerves were particularly vulnerable to damage from avulsion, contusion, or deterioration of the nerve sheath [16,17]. Additionally, rapid acceleration and deceleration were implicated in causing shearing forces that could lead to skull base injuries [16,17]. Notably, Kodali et al. observed a positive correlation between severe traumatic brain injury and increased mortality [16]. This external research supports our findings of significantly heightened mortality rates among patients who suffer ocular trauma, particularly within the first year following the injury. By analyzing cohorts matched for cardiovascular and neurological comorbidities, we suggest that the elevated mortality observed in patients with ocular trauma may indicate underlying neurological and systemic dysfunctions, potentially stemming from traumatic brain injuries or disruptions in the visual pathway. The rapid decline in health within the first-year post-injury underscores the urgent, systemic nature of their condition, which could lead to catastrophic health outcomes if not promptly addressed.

Interestingly, despite falls being a prevalent reason for trauma admissions, vision screening is often neglected in emergency settings [18]. Bardes et al. identified that over half of the elderly evaluated in emergency departments had untreated or undiagnosed visual deficits, underlining the practicality of screening and its role in identifying patients at risk [18]. Significantly higher mortality rates in patients with ocular trauma underscore the potential of vision screening by trauma providers, facilitating timely referrals for management of chronic conditions.

Strengths of our study include a large sample size in the pre-matching group and an automated data acquisition and analysis method using Python and Jupyter Notebook. Limitations include a predominantly white patient demographic, potentially affecting the study’s generalizability. While this study is based on a single healthcare system, our findings align with broader geriatric trauma trends, supporting external validity. There was also no 95% confidence interval provided for between-group differences in regard to select patient demographics; statistical comparisons were not conducted for these specific parameters. There was also a small age variation between groups; the study group in the pre-matching group had a median age of 80, higher than the control group’s median of 75. This difference in age could have influenced the mortality rate discrepancy despite rigorous matching. While we accounted for cardiovascular and neurological comorbidities, other factors such as socioeconomic status and frailty could influence mortality. Insurance status was used as a proxy, but future studies should explore these variables in more detail. Further, patients with previous cataract surgery, suggesting better baseline vision, may be less prone to falls and possibly receive more consistent healthcare management, which could introduce a confounding variable. However, our study likely included a mix of cataract and pseudophakic patients in the control group, to best simulate the age-appropriate cataract-related status of the study group. While falls increase morbidity and mortality, discerning whether it is the fall itself or the subsequent ocular trauma that leads to increased mortality remains challenging. Our study posits that ocular trauma, primarily caused by falls in the elderly, is associated with increased mortality and this information will be helpful, especially for primary care physicians caring for these patients.

In conclusion, we observed a correlation between ocular trauma and elevated mortality in the geriatric population. This suggests that impaired protective maneuvers indicative of systemic disease could signal the need for urgent intervention. These findings emphasize the importance for healthcare providers to adopt a proactive, multidisciplinary approach, particularly focusing on the initial year following trauma, to improve the care and prognosis of geriatric patients who sustain ocular injuries. These findings highlight the need for multidisciplinary interventions, including fall prevention strategies and post-trauma geriatric assessments, to mitigate mortality risk. Implementing structured post-trauma screening programs for fall risk and systemic decline may improve patient outcomes.

Supporting information

S1 Table. Overview of Patient Characteristics and Mortality Timing Pre- and Post-Matching.

This figure provides summary data on the distribution of patient numbers and all-cause mortality across study and control groups before and after cohort matching. Pre-matching data include total patient counts and the timing of deaths by year over a five-year observation period. Post-matching tables detail demographic information by sex and age group, as well as categorized causes of death within the study group. Additional stratification of deaths by age group is presented for the matched control group. These data were used to support comparative survival and comorbidity analyses in the main study.

(XLSX)

pone.0324821.s001.xlsx (13.3KB, xlsx)

Data Availability

Data Availability Statement for PLOS ONE Most of the relevant data are within the manuscript and its supporting files. Our submission contains most of the raw data needed to replicate the results of the study. While we have tried to share the “minimal data set” which is the data required to replicate all study findings in the articles, certain aspects of our code and data cannot be shared due to legal or ethical constraints which would breach parameters that were defined and set in place prior to the start of the project. Our code and data contain sensitive legal and ethical data such as potentially identifying or sensitive patient information that cannot be fully shared publicly. However, I will provide various UNC e-mails that could be contacted to view the code and additional data points. Please feel free to contact the following Sandy Barnhart: Social Research Specialist, e-mail: sandy_barnhart@med.unc.edu I2B2 and NCTracs Support Specialist: Joe Mosnier, mosnier@unc.edu and nctracs@unc.edu

Funding Statement

The project described was supported by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), National Institutes of Health (UL1TR002489) for author VP. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the NIH. The research reported in this publication was supported by the National Institute on Aging, of the National Institutes of Health (NIA 2-T35-AG038047, T35AG038047) through the UNC-CH Summer Research Training in Aging for Medical Students for author VP. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the NIA or NIH.

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Decision Letter 0

Abdelaziz Abdelaal

21 Jan 2025

PONE-D-24-34403Geriatric ocular trauma and mortality: a retrospective cohort studyPLOS ONE

Dear Dr. Fleischman,

Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process.

==============================

ACADEMIC EDITOR:

My comments are inserted below

==============================

Please submit your revised manuscript by Mar 07 2025 11:59PM. If you will need more time than this to complete your revisions, please reply to this message or contact the journal office at plosone@plos.org . When you're ready to submit your revision, log on to https://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/ and select the 'Submissions Needing Revision' folder to locate your manuscript file.

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We look forward to receiving your revised manuscript.

Kind regards,

Abdelaziz Abdelaal, M.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

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Additional Editor Comments :

Dear Authors,

I enjoyed reading your paper. However, we feel that some parts need to be addressed so that the conclusions can be supported by the conducted analyses.

1- what's the rationale for choosing nuclear cataract as the control group?

2- can you do subgroup analysis based on the type of ocular trauma reported (orbital fracture, others)?

3- please move Fig 1 caption to the end of the manuscript after references

4- The information regarding the matching process is very scarce that makes replication inadequate. Please provide a detailed section on how matching was done and please replace subtype A and B with pre- and post-matching.

5- Doing Bonferroni correction was a good approach.

6- Provide P-values or 95% CI for between group differences in Table 3 (both pre- and post-matching)

7- please present the summary stats of matching factors enlisted in Table 1 into Table 3 both pre and post matching

8- Please combine the Tables for subset A and B (and standardize the reporting as pre-matching and post-matching instead of subset A and B)

9- In Table 6, only a number of comorbid conditions were analyzed. Why not the full list provided in Table 1?

2- I think the more the data added to the model (baseline differences), the more insight we can get about baseline imbalances. Please make sure to have all important confounders included into the comparison, with the conduct of a logistic regression model (if you'll treat mortality as a binary effect using LOCF) or in Cox proportional Hazards model (if you'll treat it as time-to-death).

I look forward to reviewing your revision

Best,

Abdelaziz Abdelaal

[Note: HTML markup is below. Please do not edit.]

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

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Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

5. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: The study had a large enough sample size and appropriate statistical analysis were catered out. The authors also outlined the strengths and weaknesses of their study and made reasonable recommendations.

Reviewer #2: The study investigates the 5-year mortality of geriatric patients aged 65 and older with ocular trauma compared to age-matched controls with cataracts. It highlights the need for multidisciplinary care and preventive measures to address systemic health issues in this high-risk population. Please address the following question to improve the quality of paper.

1. The study utilizes data from the I2B2 Carolina Data Warehouse. Could you provide more details on the data collection process, including the time frame and the completeness of the dataset? Additionally, the imbalance in sample sizes between the study group (602 patients) and the control group (1066 patients) could potentially influence statistical significance. How do you address this potential bias?

2. The study excludes patients with multisystem trauma, victims of transport accidents, homicide, assault, vehicle accidents, intentional injuries, and those who died within one month of presentation. How do you ensure that these exclusion criteria do not introduce selection bias? What steps were taken to mitigate the impact of these exclusions on the study's findings?

3. While the study matches for cardiovascular and neurological conditions, are there other potential confounding factors that were not considered? For example, socioeconomic status, living environment, or other comorbidities that could influence mortality rates.

4. The study uses chi-squared tests to compare mortality data. Given the complexity of the dataset and potential confounding factors, have you considered using more advanced statistical methods, such as multivariate regression analysis, to control for these factors and improve the robustness of your findings?

5. The findings suggest a correlation between ocular trauma and higher mortality in the geriatric population. How do you interpret this finding in terms of clinical practice? Are there implications for more frequent eye examinations or other preventive measures? What future research directions could build upon these findings to provide more comprehensive preventive and therapeutic strategies?

6. The study reports mortality rates at various intervals over five years. How do you explain the variability in mortality rates across these intervals? Are there specific factors that contribute to the observed trends in mortality over time?

7. The study groups differ in age and racial demographics. How do these differences potentially influence the results? Have you considered stratifying the analysis by these demographic factors to better understand their impact on mortality rates?

8. The study suggests that ocular trauma may be a marker for systemic decline. How do you differentiate between ocular trauma as a direct cause of mortality versus an indicator of underlying health issues? What additional research is needed to clarify this relationship?

9. Given the higher mortality rates associated with ocular trauma, what follow-up protocols or interventions would you recommend for geriatric patients who sustain eye injuries? How can healthcare providers best manage these patients to improve outcomes?

10. The study is based on a retrospective cohort analysis. How do you ensure the replicability of your findings? What steps could be taken to increase the generalizability of your results to other populations or settings?

**********

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Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #2: Yes:  Wei Zhang

**********

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PLoS One. 2025 May 28;20(5):e0324821. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0324821.r003

Author response to Decision Letter 0


7 Apr 2025

Response to Reviewers

Manuscript ID: PONE-D-24-34403

Title: Geriatric ocular trauma and mortality: a retrospective cohort study

Dear Dr. Abdelaal and Reviewers,

We thank you for your time and the thoughtful, constructive feedback provided on our manuscript. We appreciate your efforts to improve the rigor and clarity of our work. Below, we address each comment raised by the Academic Editor and the reviewers. We have revised the manuscript accordingly and describe these changes in detail below.

Academic Editor Comments

Comment 1: What's the rationale for choosing nuclear cataract as the control group?

Response:

Patients with nuclear cataracts are commonly used as a control group in ophthalmologic studies, as they represent a non-traumatic, age-associated ocular diagnosis. This makes them ideal comparators to elderly patients with ocular trauma. Furthermore, these patients often have comorbidities similar to those of trauma patients, helping reduce confounding. Because cataracts are not generally caused by trauma, this distinction strengthens their role as a control group when evaluating trauma-associated outcomes such as mortality.

Comment 2: Can you do subgroup analysis based on the type of ocular trauma reported (orbital fracture, others)?

Response:

While we agree that trauma subtypes would provide valuable insights, subgroup analyses by trauma type (e.g., orbital fracture, eyelid laceration, open globe injury) were not possible due to limitations in coding granularity and sample size for individual subtypes. We have noted this limitation in the manuscript and suggest this as an area for future research.

Comment 3: Please move Fig 1 caption to the end of the manuscript after references.

Response:

We have moved the caption for Figure 1 to the end of the manuscript as requested.

Comment 4: The information regarding the matching process is very scarce, making replication inadequate. Please provide a detailed section on how matching was done and replace 'subset A and B' with 'pre- and post-matching'.

Response:

We have expanded the Materials and Methods section to describe the covariate matching process in detail. This includes specific variables used for matching (e.g., age, cardiovascular and neurological diagnoses), the matching ratio, and rationale. We have also replaced all references to “Subset A” and “Subset B” with “pre-matching” and “post-matching” throughout the manuscript.

Comment 5: Doing Bonferroni correction was a good approach.

Response:

Thank you for this feedback. We agree that Bonferroni correction was an important step in controlling for multiple comparisons and are glad it was viewed favorably.

Comment 6: Provide p-values or 95% CI for between-group differences in Table 3 (both pre- and post-matching).

Response:

As Table 3 was created to describe demographic variables, formal hypothesis testing was not originally performed. However, we recognize the value of comparing baseline characteristics statistically and have acknowledged this as a limitation in the Discussion section.

Comment 7: Present summary statistics of matching factors listed in Table 1 into Table 3, both pre- and post-matching.

Response:

We have chosen to preserve Table 3 for demographic variables to maintain clarity. However, we added details about matching factor distributions in the supplementary materials, and have cross-referenced these in the main text.

Comment 8: Combine the tables for Subset A and B and standardize the reporting as pre- and post-matching.

Response:

We have standardized the terminology to “pre-matching” and “post-matching” throughout the manuscript. While we considered merging the tables, we determined that presenting them separately preserves the logical structure and narrative clarity. We believe this approach enhances readability and coherence.

Comment 9: In Table 6, only a number of comorbid conditions were analyzed. Why not the full list provided in Table 1?

Response:

We have now added data for the remaining comorbidities referenced in Table 1 into the appropriate tables or supplementary files. This provides a more complete view of the matched cohort’s clinical characteristics.

Comment 10: Please include all important confounders into a logistic regression or Cox model.

Response:

We have now performed a Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for age, sex, and major comorbidities. The model confirms the higher mortality associated with ocular trauma and supports our original conclusions. This analysis is now described in the Methods and Results sections of the manuscript.

Reviewer #1

Comment: The study had a large enough sample size and appropriate statistical analysis were carried out. The authors also outlined the strengths and weaknesses of their study and made reasonable recommendations.

Response:

Thank you for your positive evaluation. We are pleased that the strengths and rigor of our study were recognized and appreciate your support of our conclusions and recommendations.

Reviewer #2

General Comment: The study investigates the 5-year mortality of geriatric patients aged 65 and older with ocular trauma compared to age-matched controls with cataracts. It highlights the need for multidisciplinary care and preventive measures to address systemic health issues in this high-risk population.

Response:

We appreciate this summary and have expanded our Discussion to highlight the importance of multidisciplinary care, emphasizing timely follow-up with primary care, fall risk assessment, and earlier interventions for systemic decline.

Comment 1: Could you provide more details on the data collection process, including the time frame and the completeness of the dataset? How do you address the imbalance in sample sizes?

Response:

We have updated the Methods section to specify that data were collected from the I2B2 University of North Carolina database between April 2011 and June 2016. We ensured a minimum of 5 years of follow-up or death documentation for all patients. The sample size imbalance was addressed through 1:1 covariate matching, which resulted in balanced pre- and post-matching cohorts. These steps have been clarified in the revised manuscript.

Comment 2: How do you ensure that exclusion criteria (e.g., trauma from accidents or assault) do not introduce selection bias?

Response:

These exclusions were necessary to remove deaths due to external trauma, which would confound the association between ocular injury and systemic decline. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis and found that excluding these cases did not alter overall mortality trends. This approach is now clarified in the Methods and Discussion.

Comment 3: Are there other potential confounding factors (e.g., socioeconomic status, living environment) that were not considered?

Response:

We acknowledge that factors like socioeconomic status and living environment were not directly available in our dataset. Insurance type was included as a proxy. We now highlight this as a limitation and suggest future work to explore these variables explicitly.

Comment 4: Have you considered using more advanced statistical methods like multivariate regression?

Response:

Yes. In the revised manuscript, we now include a Cox proportional hazards regression model that adjusts for age, sex, cardiovascular conditions, and neurological comorbidities. This model supports the findings from our initial analysis.

Comment 5: What are the clinical implications of this finding?

Response:

We have expanded our Discussion and Conclusion to recommend post-trauma follow-up protocols including early assessment for frailty, fall risk, and systemic decline. We also discuss the need for preventive care measures and increased collaboration between ophthalmology, geriatrics, and primary care.

Comment 6: How do you explain the variability in mortality rates over time?

Response:

The spike in Year 1 mortality likely reflects acute systemic vulnerability following trauma. Later variability is consistent with heterogeneous health trajectories in elderly patients. This interpretation has been added to the Results and Discussion sections.

Comment 7: Have you considered stratifying the analysis by demographic factors?

Response:

Yes. We performed age-stratified mortality analyses in the post-matching cohort. Due to the predominantly white sample, racial stratification was limited. We note this as a limitation and recommend broader sampling in future studies.

Comment 8: How do you differentiate whether ocular trauma is a cause of mortality or a marker of systemic decline?

Response:

We believe ocular trauma is best interpreted as a sentinel event, rather than a direct cause of death. Our exclusions (e.g., acute multisystem trauma) and matching for comorbidities support this interpretation. We now emphasize this distinction in the Discussion.

Comment 9: What follow-up interventions do you recommend for geriatric patients with eye injuries?

Response:

We recommend a multidisciplinary approach, including frailty screening, fall risk assessment, and coordination with primary care and social support systems. These recommendations are now included in the Conclusion.

Comment 10: How do you ensure replicability and improve generalizability?

Response:

Our methods are replicable using standard platforms (I2B2 and Python-based analytics). While our study reflects patients in North Carolina, our findings align with broader geriatric trauma trends. We advocate for multi-institutional validation to enhance generalizability.

Conclusion

We again thank the reviewers and editorial team for your careful review and insightful feedback. We have revised the manuscript to address all comments thoroughly and believe it is now significantly strengthened. We look forward to your reconsideration.

Sincerely,

David Fleischman, MD, FACS and co-authors

Attachment

Submitted filename: Response to Additional Comments.docx

pone.0324821.s003.docx (14KB, docx)

Decision Letter 1

Abdelaziz Abdelaal

2 May 2025

Geriatric ocular trauma and mortality: a retrospective cohort study

PONE-D-24-34403R1

Dear Dr. Fleischman,

We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements.

Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication.

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Kind regards,

Abdelaziz Abdelaal, M.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Additional Editor Comments (optional):

Reviewers' comments:

Acceptance letter

Abdelaziz Abdelaal

PONE-D-24-34403R1

PLOS ONE

Dear Dr. Fleischman,

I'm pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been deemed suitable for publication in PLOS ONE. Congratulations! Your manuscript is now being handed over to our production team.

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on behalf of

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Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Associated Data

    This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

    Supplementary Materials

    S1 Table. Overview of Patient Characteristics and Mortality Timing Pre- and Post-Matching.

    This figure provides summary data on the distribution of patient numbers and all-cause mortality across study and control groups before and after cohort matching. Pre-matching data include total patient counts and the timing of deaths by year over a five-year observation period. Post-matching tables detail demographic information by sex and age group, as well as categorized causes of death within the study group. Additional stratification of deaths by age group is presented for the matched control group. These data were used to support comparative survival and comorbidity analyses in the main study.

    (XLSX)

    pone.0324821.s001.xlsx (13.3KB, xlsx)
    Attachment

    Submitted filename: Response to Additional Comments.docx

    pone.0324821.s003.docx (14KB, docx)

    Data Availability Statement

    Data Availability Statement for PLOS ONE Most of the relevant data are within the manuscript and its supporting files. Our submission contains most of the raw data needed to replicate the results of the study. While we have tried to share the “minimal data set” which is the data required to replicate all study findings in the articles, certain aspects of our code and data cannot be shared due to legal or ethical constraints which would breach parameters that were defined and set in place prior to the start of the project. Our code and data contain sensitive legal and ethical data such as potentially identifying or sensitive patient information that cannot be fully shared publicly. However, I will provide various UNC e-mails that could be contacted to view the code and additional data points. Please feel free to contact the following Sandy Barnhart: Social Research Specialist, e-mail: sandy_barnhart@med.unc.edu I2B2 and NCTracs Support Specialist: Joe Mosnier, mosnier@unc.edu and nctracs@unc.edu


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