Multi-impacts of climate change and mitigation strategies in Nigeria: agricultural production and food security

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to Nigeria's agricultural sector, which is a cornerstone of its economy and food security. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, erratic rainfall patterns, and rising temperatures have disrupted agricultural productivity, threatening the livelihoods of millions of Nigerians. Through a comprehensive literature review, synthesizing data from peer-reviewed journals, institutional reports, and credible online sources from 2000 to 2023, this study aims to explore the multi-faceted impacts of climate variability on agricultural production, livestock, fisheries, and food security in Nigeria, and to identify effective adaptation strategies to mitigate these impacts. The findings reveal that climate change has significantly disrupted agricultural productivity in Nigeria, with erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events leading to reduced crop yields, increased pest and disease pressure, and land degradation. Vulnerable crops such as maize, cassava, and rice are particularly affected, while livestock production faces challenges such as heat stress and reduced feed availability. The fisheries sector is also impacted, with shrinking water resources and increasing contamination levels threatening livelihoods. Adaptation strategies, including crop diversification, improved irrigation, and indigenous knowledge practices, offer some resilience but require substantial policy and financial support. The study highlights the urgency of implementing climate-smart agricultural practices, enhancing infrastructure, and promoting public-private partnerships to mitigate climate-induced risks. Recommendations align with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2 (Zero Hunger), 13 (Climate Action), and 15 (Life on Land), emphasizing the need for sustainable agricultural practices, ecosystem preservation, and adaptive policy frameworks to ensure food security and economic stability in Nigeria. This study provides valuable insights into the impacts of climate change on Nigeria's agricultural sector and offers practical recommendations for building resilience and ensuring sustainable food systems. It reveals the importance of collaborative efforts at all levels to address the challenges posed by climate change and safeguard the nation's agricultural heritage for future generations.

1. Introduction

Climate change represents a pressing global issue, significantly altering the environment and reshaping ecosystems [1]. Observed climatic changes are marked by rapid warming, with global temperatures expected to rise between 1.5 °C and 4 °C by 2100 [2]. Regions across the globe are experiencing more frequent heatwaves, prolonged warm seasons, and diminished cold seasons. Vulnerable areas, including Africa, bear disproportionate impacts, compounded by limited resilience capacities [3].

Nigeria ranks among the 10 most exposed countries to climate change, with nearly 6 % of its land susceptible to extreme weather conditions [4]. Agriculture, which employs over 70 % of Nigerians, faces both direct and indirect threats due to erratic rainfall patterns, increasing temperatures, and severe weather events. Staple crops like maize, yam, rice, and cassava are increasingly affected, with flooding in 2012 causing significant yield losses in key agricultural states [5].

The agricultural sector, critical for food production and livelihood in Nigeria, is particularly vulnerable to climatic variability and extremes. The impact of climate change on agriculture extends beyond productivity, influencing food security, quality, and storage systems. As a country heavily dependent on rain-fed farming, Nigeria faces compounding challenges including rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and desertification, which have reshaped the agricultural landscape over the past decades [6,7]. These disruptions exacerbate food insecurity, as supply chains are weakened and farming communities become increasingly vulnerable. Persistent food price rises, largely driven by reduced agricultural productivity, further make basic food items unaffordable for low-income populations [8].

Globally, climate change poses far-reaching impacts on agricultural systems, as highlighted in recent studies [9]. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) emphasizes that climate change is exacerbating land degradation, including soil erosion, desertification, and loss of arable land, which threatens global food security [10]. In Nigeria, these impacts are particularly pronounced given the nation's reliance on rain-fed agriculture and its exposure to extreme weather conditions [11]. Shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns have disrupted seasonal cycles, further challenging agricultural productivity [12,13]. Understanding the complex interactions between climate change and agriculture is critical for developing adaptive strategies and policies to safeguard food systems in Nigeria. This paper evaluates the impacts of climate changes on Nigerian agriculture and explores the adaptive strategies employed to enhance resilience and ensure food security.

2. Methodology

2.1. Study design

A comprehensive literature review approach was utilized in this study, synthesizing data from secondary sources to analyze the impacts of climate change on Nigeria's agricultural sector. This included peer-reviewed journal articles, institutional reports from organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Climate Service Center Germany, World Bank Group, and Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), as well as credible online articles and databases. The research focused on climate variability and its effects on food security, crop production, livestock, and fisheries in Nigeria.

2.2. Literature search methodology

An electronic literature search was conducted using databases such as ISI Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar. The search strategy employed terms like “climate change AND Nigeria,” “global warming AND Nigeria,” and similar combinations to identify relevant studies published between 2000 and 2023. Articles were filtered based on their titles, abstracts, and full texts to ensure relevance to the study objectives. The inclusion criteria targeted studies that explicitly addressed climate variability and its direct or indirect impacts on agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Publications not relevant to the agricultural sector or those without a clear focus on climate change impacts were excluded. Manual screening eliminated duplicate entries, and eligibility discrepancies were resolved through external expert consultation.

2.3. Eligibility criteria

Studies included in this research were required to meet the following criteria: explicit focus on the impacts of climate change on Nigeria's agricultural sector; analysis of climate variability and its influence on food security, crop yields, livestock, and fisheries; relevance to the period 2000–2023 to capture the most recent and applicable findings; excluded studies lacked a specific connection to climate change or focused on unrelated themes; editorials, conference abstracts, and book chapters were also excluded.

2.4. Data categorization and analysis

Relevant articles were categorized into five primary impact categories:

• (1)Agriculture: studies addressing the effects of climate change on crop and livestock production, fisheries and aquatic systems;
• (2)Climate impact mechanism: heat stress, rainfall variability, and land degradation;
• (3)Socio-economic impacts: effects on food security and system, regional disparities, and poverty;
• (4)Adaptation strategies and implementation challenges: indigenous knowledge, climate-smart technologies, policy interventions, etc.;
• (5)Identified research gap: limited research in ecological zones, drought and flood tolerant crops, lack of data in socio-economic impact, climate policy, livestock and fisheries, barriers in implementing climate-smart technologies.

The data were systematically synthesized to identify recurring themes and trends. Comparative analysis was performed to evaluate the varying impacts of climate change across different agricultural subsectors in Nigeria. The detailed categorization and data analysis are further explained below.

3. Results

The results of this study indicate that climate change has significantly disrupted agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods in Nigeria. Vulnerable areas, particularly in southern and northern parts of Nigeria, face heightened challenges such as desertification, reduced rainfall, and resource scarcity. Adaptation strategies employed by farmers, as well as constraints to their implementation, are also examined. The sections below provide a detailed breakdown of the findings.

3.1. Impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Nigeria

Nigeria's agricultural sector is primarily dependent on rainfall, making it highly vulnerable to climatic changes. Research has shown that increasing temperatures, extended dry seasons, and decreasing rainfall in northern regions are contributing to desertification, which reduces the availability of arable land [14,15]. The mean annual temperatures in Nigeria ranges from 17 °C to 37 °C in the south and 12–45 °C in the north. Between 1901 and 2016, the country experienced a temperature increase of 0.03 °C per decade, with a more significant rise of 0.19 °C per decade over the past 30 years as shown in Fig. 1. The highest temperatures typically occur during the dry season and show minimal variation between coastal and inland areas [16]. Nigeria has observed the gradual shrinkage of Lake Chad over the last 40 years, with its area decreasing from over 40,000 km² to only 1300 km², which is further accompanied by the advancing of Sahara Desert, largely attributed to rising temperatures [17].

Fig. 1.

The average mean surface air temperature of Nigeria. Data source: World Bank Group, https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/nigeria/climate-data-historical.

In Nigeria, precipitation patterns are highly variable, and over the past few decades, the predictability of seasonal rains has decreased nationwide. Nevertheless, rainfall has consistently declined since the 1960s. The country experiences a wide range of rainfall amounts, from the very wet coastal areas with annual rainfall exceeding 3500 mm to the Sahel region in the northwest and northeast, where annual rainfall is below 600 mm. Rainfall variation is particularly significant in the northern regions, leading to climatic hazards like floods and droughts. Over the past century, rainfall has decreased by about 800 mm [16,17].

Agricultural productivity is closely linked to both short term and long-term climatic changes, including shifts in rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity [18]. Recurrent droughts and floods, combined with increasing aridity in the Sahel and Sudan Savannah regions, have made large areas of farmland unproductive, worsening food security in densely populated areas [19]. In addition to reducing yields, extreme weather events disrupt planting and harvesting schedules, destabilizing the agricultural calendar. This causes ripple effects on food supply chains, from production to distribution, and is further exacerbated by rising food prices, which disproportionately affect vulnerable populations [20].

3.2. Climate variability and agricultural system

Studies have established the adverse effects of climatic variability on agricultural and food production in Nigeria as shown in Table 1. Looking ahead to 2050, some author's forecasted that crop yields in Africa could be reduced by up to 50 % due to climate change impacts [21]. As a consequence, Nigeria faces an increased risk of reduced agricultural output, crop failure, and livestock mortality [22,23]. Additionally, southern regions face intensified flooding due to increased precipitation and sea-level rise, disrupting farming activities and soil fertility [24]. Increasing aridity in the Sahel and Sudan Savannah belts has led to severe reductions in farmland suitability, compounded by drought and desertification [11]; and many forest resources has been gradually depleted as a result of climate change effects [25]. Recurring environmental disasters, such as the severe flooding of 2012, have caused substantial losses in crops, livestock, and human lives, highlighting the vulnerabilities of Nigeria's agricultural sector [26]. Disruptions to rainfall patterns including delayed onset, shorter growing seasons, and irregular precipitation further compound these challenges, exacerbating the volatility of food production and distributing the agricultural systems.

Table 1.

Impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Nigeria.

Climate change effects	Geographical impact	Impacted crops/soil conditions	Source/author
Altered growing seasons and rainfall patterns	Nigeria	General crop production	[27,28]
Risks of late rains and drying streams	Ondo State, Nigeria	General crop production	[29]
Increased temperature, pests, and diseases	Southwest Nigeria	General crop production	[30]
Wetlands endangered due to climate variability	Niger Delta, Nigeria	Wetland ecosystems	[31]
Soil salinity due to saltwater intrusion	Ondo State, Nigeria	Soil quality	[31]
Land degradation, coastal and riverbank erosion	Niger Delta, Nigeria	Land resources	[32,33]
Higher vulnerability to climate shocks in northern regions	Northern Nigeria	Agricultural productivity	[34]
Reduced crop yields in dry regions	Northern Nigeria	Crop yields	[35]
Decreased soil quality and crop yield	Kebbi State, Nigeria	Soil quality, crop performance	[36]

3.3. Crop production

Crop production is a central component of Nigeria's agricultural sector, accounting for approximately 94 % of the country's agricultural activities. Climate change has had a profound impact on crop production, with some regions already experiencing a 20 % reduction in the length of the growing season [24]. Climate change has noticeably reduced maize productivity [37], with the delayed onset of rainfall, unpredictable dry spells after planting, and early cessation of rainfall being the major influencing factors [38]. Furthermore, research observed that higher temperatures and increased temperature variability caused delays in the initiation of tassel formation in both maize and sorghum crops [39].

In cowpea production, another research found that the population of insects associated with cowpea crops increased during a particular cropping season, as a response to climate change [40]. For rice, it was reported that a 1.0 % increase in humidity resulted in a 17.0 % decrease in rice production, while a 1.0 % increase in minimum temperature led to a significant 52.3 % increase in production [35]. Similarly, in cassava farming, climate change was associated with variations in root numbers, plant height, and fresh root yields across different seasons [41], while in cocoa farming, a decrease in yield due to excessive rainfall were identified. However, they also found that some physiological processes associated with pod production were improved as both relative humidity and temperature increased. These studies, mostly conducted through surveys or modelling exercises, revealed that reduced cocoa yields and an increased incidence of black pod disease were the most commonly reported impacts [42]. Other impacts were directly linked to shifts in rainfall distribution patterns due to climate change. Additional studies noted a reduction in the yields of fluted pumpkin [43] and oil palm [44]. In a separate study, it was reported that a 1 % increase in temperature could lead to a significant long-term decrease in groundnut output [45].

Climate change also contributed to freshwater scarcity [46], affected rural water supplies [47], and caused soil degradation across the country [36]. Climate change-induced high temperatures and heatwaves pose serious challenges to food storage. Many Nigerian farmers and traders lack the resources to invest in temperature-controlled storage facilities, leading to significant post-harvest losses [6]. Crops such as yams, potatoes, tomatoes, and vegetables are particularly vulnerable, with rapid decomposition reported during periods of high atmospheric temperatures. In response to these challenges, some state governments, such as Benue State, have constructed storage facilities to mitigate losses. However, these efforts remain insufficient given the scale of agricultural production and the increasingly frequent extreme weather events [48].

Climate change not only affects the quantity of food produced but also its quality. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ levels have been shown to reduce the protein concentration in staple crops, compromising their nutritional value [49]. Similarly, extreme weather events like excessive rainfall and drought lead to soil degradation through leaching, increased acidity, and reduced mineral content, further affecting crop quality [50]. As the frequency of such climatic events increases, ensuring the safety and nutritional value of food becomes an even greater challenge.

3.4. Livestock production

In the livestock sector, rising temperatures have significantly impacted animal productivity, particularly for poultry, swine, cattle, sheep, and goats. It has been reported that there is an annual reduction of approximately 15 % in livestock production due to the adverse effects of climate change [51,52]. Two studies on livestock, one conducted in the northern and the other in the southern regions of Nigeria, utilized survey methods for data collection. The research of the data was carried out through survey of 105 participants [53] and a gathered data from 80 participants [54] from different regions indicated that, despite the regional differences, both studies yielded similar findings, particularly concerning the impact of climate change on livestock reproduction. One of the authors also ranked the effects of climate change, with reduced feed intake being identified as the most significant impact, while increased mortality was considered the least important [53]. Other notable challenges reported by participants included pest infestations and the spread of vectors [55], as well as changes in rearing practices [56].

In the poultry sector, two out of three studies employed surveys, both of which highlighted significant changes in egg production. A third study, using an experimental method involving aqueous acetone and chloroform extraction to investigate the effects of climate change on aflatoxin contamination. The study found that climate variations, both in location and seasons, contributed to increased contamination levels [57]. Additional significant impacts on poultry included reduced egg and meat production, the spread of diseases, and heat-related losses [[58], [59], [60]]. However, studies focusing on physiological impacts, such as those on metabolism [61] and those using modelling in commercial poultry houses [62], were not available in the reviewed literature.

3.5. Fisheries and aquatic systems

The fisheries sector, crucial for providing protein to millions of Nigerians, is also affected by climate change. Shrinking water resources in areas like Lake Chad have significantly disrupted fishing activities, leading to job losses and broken supply chains [63]. Rising water temperatures further destabilize aquatic habitats, causing reduced oxygen levels and increasing the vulnerability of fish to diseases and contamination [20]. These changes have far-reaching implications for food security and the livelihoods of communities dependent on fishing. In the area of fish production, significant delays and changes in fishing activities were reported, which were primarily linked to unprecedented flooding events attributed to climate change [64]. Other studies have highlighted various impacts on the fishing sector, including shifts in the seasonality of fishing activities, which have affected the availability of fish [65]. Additionally, there has been a notable increase in the distance and difficulty in accessing fishing grounds [66], along with a general decline in fish productivity [67]. These changes collectively illustrate how climate change is influencing fish production in Nigeria, disrupting traditional fishing practices and reducing yields.

4. Mechanisms of climate change impacts on agriculture

Climate change affects agricultural productivity through several interconnected mechanisms. Rising temperatures cause heat stress, which disrupts plant physiological processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, and water regulation, leading to reduced crop yields.

4.1. Heat stress and plant physiology

Heat stress significantly disrupts plant physiological processes, including photosynthesis, respiration, and water regulation. Elevated temperatures reduce the efficiency of photosynthesis, as enzymes involved in the process become less effective at higher temperatures [68]. This leads to reduced carbon fixation and, consequently, lower crop yields. Additionally, heat stress accelerates the rate of respiration, which can deplete the plant's energy reserves, further reducing growth and productivity [69]. Heat stress also affects water regulation in plants by increasing the rate of transpiration, leading to water loss and wilting, particularly in rain-fed agricultural systems where water availability is already limited [1]. In Nigeria, crops like maize and sorghum are particularly vulnerable to heat stress which can delay tassel formation and reduce grain yields [39].

4.2. Soil moisture retention

Higher temperatures exacerbate soil moisture loss through increased evapotranspiration rates, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions of northern Nigeria, where water scarcity is already a significant issue [1]. Reduced soil moisture not only limits water availability for plant uptake but also affects soil structure, leading to increased soil compaction and reduced aeration, which further inhibits root growth and nutrient uptake [68]. Conservation agriculture practices, such as mulching and cover cropping, have been shown to improve soil moisture retention by reducing evaporation and enhancing soil organic matter [70]. These practices could be particularly beneficial in Nigeria, where soil degradation and desertification are pressing concerns.

4.3. Pest proliferation

Rising temperatures can accelerate the life cycles of pests and diseases, increasing their prevalence and impact on crops. Warmer conditions often expand the geographic range of pests, allowing them to thrive in regions previously unfavorable [71]. For example, in Nigeria, the population of insects associated with cowpea crops has increased in response to climate change, leading to higher pest pressure and reduced yields [40]. Moreover, higher temperatures can increase the reproductive rates of pests, leading to more frequent and severe infestations. This is particularly concerning for crops like maize and rice, which are staple foods in Nigeria and are already under stress from erratic rainfall patterns and heatwaves [30].

4.4. Changing rainfall patterns and soil erosion

Erratic rainfall patterns, characterized by intense rainfall events followed by prolonged dry spells, significantly contribute to soil erosion and nutrient loss. Intense rainfall can strip away topsoil, which is rich in organic matter and nutrients, leading to reduced soil fertility [72]. In Nigeria, this is particularly evident in the southern regions, where heavy rainfall and flooding have disrupted well-drained agricultural plains and undermined soil fertility [20]. Nutrient leaching is another consequence of erratic rainfall. When heavy rains occur, essential nutrients like nitrogen and potassium are washed away from the root zone, making them unavailable to plants [18]. This not only reduces crop yields but also necessitates increased fertilizer usage, which can lead to environmental pollution and higher production costs for farmers.

4.5. Land degradation

Land degradation is another critical issue, driven by both climate change and human activities. The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification reports that climate change is accelerating land degradation, reducing the availability of fertile land for agriculture, and increasing the risk of crop failures due to extreme weather events [73]. In Nigeria, desertification in the north and coastal erosion in the south have reduced the amount of land available for farming, while deforestation and poor land management practices have exacerbated soil degradation [14]. These factors collectively undermine the resilience of Nigeria's agricultural sector, making it more vulnerable to climate-induced shocks [11]. Remote sensing technologies have been widely used to monitor land use and land cover changes in response to climate change [74]. In Nigeria, similar approaches could be employed to assess the extent of land degradation and desertification, particularly in the northern regions where sand dunes are encroaching on arable land [75].

5. Socio-economic consequences

The cascading effects of climate change on agriculture extend to food security and human livelihoods. Shortfalls in crop yields and rising food prices disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, exacerbating poverty and inequality. Food insecurity, a growing concern in Nigeria, is linked to climate-induced disruptions in agricultural productivity [76]. Further, conflicts over scarce resources, such as water and grazing land, have intensified in the northern regions, particularly among pastoralist communities. Most reports linked to climate change from studies indicated that about 15 million pastoralists face livelihood risks due to decreasing access to water and pasture [77]. These conflicts have reinforced poverty and human displacement, underscoring the need for urgent interventions. The interplay between climate change and agriculture extends beyond crop productivity to include food insecurity, migration, and heightened conflicts over dwindling resources. Declining yields could result in a 50 % reduction in crop harvests by 2050, threatening livelihoods and exacerbating poverty in vulnerable communities [21]. Several authors found that, in the environmental sector, the effects of climate change were particularly evident in desert encroachment, the loss of wetlands, a decline in biodiversity, and a rapid reduction in surface water availability [15,24,78]. Additional impacts on the environment included damage to infrastructure [79], changes to the built environment [80], flooding [81], coastal erosion, and vegetation changes [33].

The socio-economic impacts of climate change on agriculture are well-documented, with studies highlighting the challenges faced by smallholder farmers in adapting to changing conditions [82]. In Nigeria, similar challenges are evident, with food insecurity and poverty exacerbated by declining agricultural productivity and rising food prices [76]. Observed data from the Central Bank of Nigeria indicates that the agricultural sector contributed 64.4 %, 47.6 %, and 30.8 % to Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1960, 1970, and 1980, respectively. However, the declining trend in the sector's contribution to GDP, as shown in Fig. 2, raises concerns about Nigeria's ability to produce sufficient food for its growing population. In recent decades, Nigeria's agricultural sector's share of GDP has fluctuated between 21.4 % and 23.4 %, significantly lower than the contributions made in the 1960s and 1970s [83]. Additionally, data from the World Bank's collection of development indicators report that agriculture, forestry, and fisheries together accounted for 22.72 % of Nigeria's GDP in 2023, as shown in Fig. 2.

Fig. 2.

Nigeria's agricultural sector value added as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (1981–2023). Data source: World Bank Dataset, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS?end=2023&locations=NG&start=1981&view=chart.

Another significant impact of climate change on food security, is its role in forcing environmental changes that drive migration. This displacement disrupts food production and other economic activities in the affected regions, making displaced populations highly susceptible to food insecurity [26]. The relationship between forced migration and food insecurity has been well-documented by studies from [20,84]. These studies highlight that forced migration often limits access to food, leading to undernutrition and worsening living conditions for displaced individuals. Precipitation, a critical determinant of food production output, has become increasingly erratic in Nigeria. The delayed onset and early cessation of rainfall in several regions have significantly altered agricultural production patterns. Furthermore, heavy flooding of farmlands in parts of the country has resulted in substantial crop losses, with recurring floods compounding these issues. Such disruptions in rainfall patterns and extreme weather events have grave consequences for food security in Nigeria [85].

5.1. Climate change and food security in Nigeria

Food security, defined as access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food, remains a pressing issue in Nigeria. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has identified three primary drivers of food insecurity: climate change, economic instability, and conflict [86]. Nigeria exemplifies the convergence of these factors, with climate change playing a pivotal role in destabilizing agricultural systems. Nigeria's agricultural sector, heavily reliant on rain-fed farming, is particularly vulnerable to climatic shocks. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events disrupts the seasonal rhythms of food production, creating instability in food supply chains. This vulnerability is heightened in regions with limited infrastructure and resources to adapt to changing conditions [76]. The semi-arid zones, characterized by fragile ecosystems, are at the forefront of this crisis. Researchers have documented significant losses in crop and livestock productivity in these regions, alongside the displacement of farming communities due to environmental degradation [87]. Coastal areas face similar challenges, as rising sea levels encroach on arable land, reducing the availability of resources for both subsistence and commercial farming.

5.2. Climatic impacts on food systems

The erratic climatic conditions in Nigeria have adversely affected food production. Extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, disrupt planting schedules, reduce crop yields, and damage infrastructure essential for food distribution. In northern Nigeria, persistent declines in rainfall gradient have rendered vast areas unsuitable for crop and livestock production, leading to diminished outputs and increased hunger [7]. The recurrence of droughts, floods, and irregular rainfall patterns has reduced agricultural productivity, leading to shortages in food supply and rising prices. These conditions disproportionately affect low-income households, exacerbating malnutrition and hunger, especially among children [19]. The cascading effects of climate change extend through the food supply chain. For example, climate variability impacts the fisheries sector, which is heavily reliant on natural water resources. Droughts and reduced water levels in rivers and lakes disrupt fishing activities, leading to supply shortages and increased prices for fish products [88]. Storage losses further exacerbate these challenges. The lack of infrastructure to manage temperature-sensitive crops results in annual losses of thousands of tons of vegetables and tubers, undermining food availability and farmers' income [48].

5.3. Regional disparities

The northeast and northwest regions, characterized by aridity and recurrent droughts, are among the most vulnerable, experiencing significant reductions in water availability and vegetation [89]. In contrast, southern Nigeria endures flooding, coastal erosion, and rising sea levels, particularly in the Niger Delta, which exacerbates displacement and loss of farmlands [90]. The six vegetative zones in Nigeria experience distinct climate impacts. In the semi-arid Sudan and arid Sahel Savannah, reduced rainfall has intensified desertification and water shortages, rendering these areas increasingly unfit for agricultural production. In the southern regions of Nigeria, which are typically characterized by high rainfall, vegetation is facing challenges due to fluctuations in rainfall patterns. This variability in rainfall is affecting the natural ecosystems, particularly in the savanna zone, where the region is now enduring more frequent and intense heatwaves. In the Sahel zone, desertification is a growing concern, with estimates suggesting that approximately 30 ha of cropland are being lost annually due to the encroaching desert [91,92]. Additionally, Nigeria's water resources, including wetlands and freshwater bodies, are being adversely affected by climate change. Many of the country's large water bodies are experiencing reduced flow rates and shrinking in length as a result of decreased rainfall and heightened evaporation rates [91]. These changes in water availability are having a significant impact on agricultural productivity, affecting both crop yields and livestock performance, through both direct and indirect mechanisms [93].

Conversely, coastal and rainforest zones are plagued by flooding, delayed rainfall, and rising sea levels, which have not only damaged farmlands but also increased soil toxicity and disrupted ecosystems [50]. The Niger Delta region, characterized by its mangrove swamp vegetation, faces persistent flooding and rising water temperatures, which adversely affect fishing and aquaculture activities. Studies suggest that these regional disparities require localized adaptation strategies to address the unique challenges posed by climate change across Nigeria [6]. More so, predictive modeling, such as the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) method, an hybrid modeling approach that combines Markov chains and cellular automata to simulate and predict land-use and land-cover changes over time, has been used to assess future urban growth and climate change impacts in other regions, highlighting the importance of integrating spatial data for effective planning [94]. In Nigeria, similar approaches could be applied to predict the impacts of climate change on agricultural land use and urban expansion, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Niger Delta.

5.4. Regional climate variability and food security

In the year 2005, the NiMet has observed considerable changes in climatic parameters such as rainfall, temperature, and extreme weather events across various ecological zones. These changes adversely affect agricultural productivity. Nigerian climatic data spanning several decades have revealed significant shifts in the timing of rainfall onset and cessation, directly influencing the food production calendar. These changes in climatic patterns have contributed to food insecurity by reducing crop yields and altering growing and harvesting seasons. Further exacerbating the situation is the increasing aridity of pasturelands in northern Nigeria [95]. Diminishing grazing fields in the Sahel and Sudan Savannah belts have forced pastoralists to migrate southward. This migration frequently leads to violent conflicts between herders and farmers over scarce resources. These conflicts disrupt agricultural activities, resulting in significant human and economic losses [18].

Environmental degradation in northern Nigeria has triggered population displacement, with pastoralists moving into the Guinea Savannah and rainforest regions. This southward migration has heightened pressure on arable land, as farmlands and fallow grounds are often encroached upon by grazing cattle. The destruction of farmlands during these migrations has resulted in persistent farmer-herder conflicts, particularly in the Middle Belt and southern Nigeria. Studies reveal that land-related violence accounted for approximately 31.1 % of communal conflicts in Nigeria between 1991 and 2005, further highlighting the link between climate change and social instability [76].

5.5. Regional agricultural productivity and climatic impact

Rainfall plays a pivotal role in shaping agricultural activities across Nigeria's ecological zones. The Sahel and Sudan Savannah belts, characterized by extensive grazing areas and localized cereal and vegetable cultivation around the Fadamas, have been severely affected by persistent droughts [19]. These droughts have drastically reduced pasture availability and water resources, forcing migration and increasing land-use conflicts. The Guinea Savannah region, Nigeria's primary food-producing zone, supports extensive cultivation of root crops, tubers, cereals, and vegetables such as yam, cassava, millet, and maize. However, increased pressure from migrating herders and climatic changes has led to land degradation and reduced agricultural output in this region. Similarly, the rainforest belt, a vital area for root and tuber crop production and exclusive cash crops like oil palm, cocoa, rubber, and cashew, is not spared from the adverse effects of climate change. Flooding and rising temperatures have disrupted agricultural cycles, negatively affecting crop yields and economic stability in these regions.

Projections suggest that climatic variability caused by climate change will continue to affect Nigeria [96]. Southern Nigeria is anticipated to experience increased precipitation, heightening flood risks and threatening the submersion of coastal cities [15]. In contrast, northern Nigeria is expected to endure higher temperatures, resulting in more frequent droughts [97]. These climatic changes are forcing farmers in diverse ecosystems, including mangrove swamps, rainforests, and regions of the Sahel and Guinea Savanna, to modify their planting schedules in response to shifts in seasonal rains and drought patterns [98].

6. Adaptation strategies: implementation and challenges

Adaptation strategies in agriculture must be context-specific and multi-dimensional. Crop diversification, for instance, has proven effective in reducing climate risks by spreading economic and ecological vulnerabilities across multiple crops [99]. Improved irrigation systems, such as drip irrigation, can enhance water-use efficiency, particularly in arid regions [100]. Indigenous knowledge practices, including traditional water harvesting and crop rotation techniques, offer valuable insights for sustainable farming but require integration with modern scientific approaches [101]. However, the implementation of these strategies often faces challenges such as financial constraints, inadequate infrastructure, and limited access to technology [102]. For example, smallholder farmers in Nigeria may struggle to adopt improved irrigation systems due to high upfront costs and lack of technical expertise [103]. A structured approach to adaptation, categorizing strategies into farm-level, community-level, and policy-level interventions can provide clarity and facilitate targeted action [104].

Farm-level strategies include crop diversification, the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties, and adjustments in planting schedules. At the farm level, adaptation strategies focus on improving the resilience of individual farmers and their practices. Techniques such as the adoption of drought-resistant crop varieties, conservation agriculture, and agroforestry have been shown to enhance soil fertility, reduce erosion, and improve water retention [105]. For example, farmers in northern Nigeria have shifted from cultivating guinea corn to millet, which is more resilient to drought conditions [75]. However, the adoption of these practices is often limited by financial constraints and lack of access to improved seeds and technologies [106].

Community-level strategies involve collective action, such as the establishment of farmer cooperatives and the use of indigenous knowledge. Indigenous practices, such as mulching and agroforestry, have been shown to improve soil fertility and reduce erosion [107]. Cooperative farming and the creation of farmer associations also facilitate the pooling of resources, knowledge sharing, and access to credit, which are critical for adapting to climate-induced challenges [106]. Furthermore, community-led initiatives such as reforestation and the construction of small-scale irrigation systems help mitigate the impacts of climate change while fostering social cohesion and collective resilience. However, these practices require community-wide adoption and support from local institutions to be effective.

Policy-level strategies include the development of climate-smart agricultural policies, investment in irrigation infrastructure, and the promotion of public-private partnerships. For instance, the Nigerian government has initiated programs to expand irrigation facilities and provide weather information to farmers [89]. The Nigerian government, in collaboration with international organizations, has implemented policies such as the National Agricultural Resilience Framework and the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change to mainstream climate adaptation into agricultural planning [108]. However, the implementation of these policies is often hindered by inadequate funding, poor governance, and lack of coordination among stakeholders [109].

6.1. Socio-economic factors shaping adaptation

Socio-economic factors play a critical role in shaping farmers' adaptive capacity. Smallholder farmers, who often lack access to credit, markets, and extension services, face disproportionate challenges compared to commercial farmers [110]. Addressing these barriers requires a holistic approach that integrates socio-economic, institutional, and ecological dimensions to build agricultural resilience effectively. The ability of farmers to adapt to climate change is influenced by a range of socio-economic factors, including economic conditions, market access, land tenure systems, and governance structures. Smallholder farmers, who constitute the majority of Nigeria's agricultural workforce, often face greater challenges in adapting to climate change compared to commercial farmers due to their limited access to resources and technology [111].

Economic conditions play a critical role in determining farmers' adaptive capacity. Poverty and lack of access to credit limit the ability of smallholder farmers to invest in climate-resilient technologies, such as improved seeds and irrigation systems [112]. In contrast, commercial farmers with greater financial resources are better equipped to adopt adaptive practices and mitigate climate risks [105]. Market access also influences adaptation outcomes. Farmers with better access to markets are more likely to adopt high-value crops and diversify their income sources, reducing their vulnerability to climate [113]. However, poor infrastructure and limited market integration often constrain the ability of smallholder farmers to access profitable markets [114].

Land tenure systems are other important factors. Land tenure systems also influence adaptation success; insecure land ownership can discourage long-term investments in soil conservation and irrigation [115]. Insecure land tenure discourages farmers from making long-term investments in soil conservation and irrigation, as they may not reap the benefits of these investments [106]. Secure land rights, on the other hand, can incentivize farmers to adopt sustainable land management practices and invest in climate-resilient infrastructure [107]. Furthermore, governance structures also play a critical role in shaping adaptation outcomes.

Government policies, such as subsidies and credit programs, can enhance resilience but are often hindered by poor implementation and governance challenges [116]. For instance, in Nigeria, limited access to affordable credit and weak institutional support have constrained the adoption of climate-resilient practices among smallholder farmers [103]. Effective governance, characterized by transparent and inclusive decision-making processes, can facilitate the implementation of climate-smart policies and programs [117]. However, weak governance and corruption often undermine the effectiveness of adaptation initiatives, particularly in rural areas [109]. Barriers to adaptation include limited access to credit, inadequate infrastructure, and weak extension services. Smallholder farmers, in particular, face significant challenges in adopting adaptive practices due to their limited financial resources and reliance on rain-fed agriculture [112]. Addressing these barriers requires targeted interventions, such as microfinance programs, capacity-building initiatives, and the development of climate-resilient infrastructure [118].

7. Research gap identified

This study identified several research gaps in climate change impact research in Nigeria. Currently, there is a lack of research on the specific vulnerabilities of Nigeria's diverse ecological zones, particularly in terms of tailored adaptation strategies for different regions. This is essential for developing effective climate adaptation plans that address the unique needs of each ecological zone. Moreover, there is insufficient research focused on the development and scaling of drought resistant and flood-tolerant crop varieties, a critical need given Nigeria's vulnerability to extreme weather events. Genetic research and pilot programs are required to advance crop resilience and ensure food security under changing climate conditions. Additionally, there is a notable gap in understanding the socio-economic implications of climate adaptation strategies. To date, there is no comprehensive study assessing the costs, benefits, and barriers to adopting adaptive practices in local communities. Such research is vital for evaluating the feasibility and long-term success of climate adaptation measures.

The existing literature also lacks evaluations of the efficacy of Nigeria's current climate policies. Research on the effectiveness of these policies is essential for guiding future improvements and ensuring that climate actions are both relevant and impactful. In the context of livestock and fisheries, few studies have focused on the physiological and ecological impacts of climate change on these sectors. Long-term sector-specific research is needed to assess the potential consequences of climate change on Nigeria's vital livestock and fisheries industries. Finally, there is a significant gap in research on the barriers to adopting advanced climate-smart technologies. Investigating scalable solutions and pathways for implementing digital and mechanical tools could help accelerate technological adoption and enhance climate resilience across sectors. Research directions for the identified gaps are summarized in the accompanying chart in Fig. 3.

Fig. 3.

Identified research gaps on climate change impact in Nigeria.

8. Discussion

The research findings highlight the profound and multi-faceted impacts of climate change on Nigeria's agricultural sector which remains a cornerstone of the nation's economy and food security. The results reveal that erratic rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events have disrupted agricultural productivity, particularly in rain-fed farming systems that dominate the country. These climatic changes have led to reduced crop yields, increased pest and disease pressure, and significant land degradation, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the semi-arid north and the flood-prone south. The cascading effects of these disruptions are evident in rising food prices, increased food insecurity, and heightened socio-economic vulnerabilities, especially among low-income households and smallholder farmers. Nigerian farmers have demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of these challenges by leveraging indigenous knowledge and adaptive practices. Crop diversification, the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties, and adjustments in planting schedules have proven effective in mitigating some of the adverse effects of climate variability [89]. However, these practices, while beneficial on a small scale, require broader institutional and financial support to achieve a more significant impact. The limited adoption of advanced technologies, such as early warning systems and improved irrigation infrastructure, highlights the need for greater investment in agricultural extension services and the integration of climate adaptation strategies into national policies [106].

The role of community networks in promoting collective action cannot be overstated. Strengthening local cooperatives and farmer associations can facilitate knowledge sharing, resource pooling, and the implementation of adaptive practices such as agroforestry, conservation agriculture, and traditional water harvesting techniques [107]. Public-private partnerships are also critical in mobilizing resources for training farmers and deploying climate-smart technologies, which can enhance resilience and productivity [109]. For instance, the development and dissemination of drought-resistant crop varieties, coupled with improved access to irrigation systems, can significantly reduce the vulnerability of farmers to climate-induced shocks.

The findings also emphasize the importance of traditional strategies in addressing climate change impacts. Adjusting planting and harvesting schedules to align with current climatic conditions, adopting diverse cropping systems, and promoting afforestation are proven methods for enhancing resilience and improving productivity [119,120]. Additionally, effective soil management practices, such as conservation tillage and cover cropping, can counteract nutrient depletion and preserve soil structure, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of extreme weather events [107]. Education and training programs are equally vital in equipping farmers with the skills and knowledge necessary to implement these adaptive measures successfully [89]. Despite these efforts, significant challenges remain. The socio-economic barriers to adaptation, including poverty, limited access to credit, and insecure land tenure, disproportionately affect smallholder farmers, who constitute the majority of Nigeria's agricultural workforce [112]. Addressing these barriers requires a holistic approach that integrates socio-economic, institutional, and ecological dimensions to build agricultural resilience effectively. Furthermore, the lack of comprehensive research on the specific vulnerabilities of Nigeria's diverse ecological zones and the socio-economic implications of adaptation strategies underscores the need for targeted studies to inform policy and practice.

The research findings also identified critical gaps in the current understanding of climate change impacts on Nigeria's agricultural sector. For instance, there is limited research on the physiological and ecological impacts of climate change on livestock and fisheries, which are vital components of the country's food systems. Additionally, there is a need for more studies on the barriers to adopting advanced climate-smart technologies and the effectiveness of current climate policies in addressing the unique challenges faced by different ecological zones. Addressing these gaps through targeted research and pilot programs can provide valuable insights for developing region-specific adaptation strategies and scaling up successful interventions.

9. Conclusion

Nigeria's agricultural sector is at a critical juncture, facing unprecedented challenges from climate change. The research findings highlight the urgent need for a multi-dimensional approach to climate adaptation, encompassing technological, institutional, and community-based strategies. While Nigerian farmers have shown resilience through indigenous knowledge and adaptive practices, broader support is required to scale these efforts and enhance their impact. Strengthening local community networks, expanding agricultural extension services, and promoting public-private partnerships are essential steps in building resilience and ensuring food security. The study also emphasizes the importance of aligning climate adaptation strategies with the United Nations SDGs, particularly SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 15 (Life on Land). By investing in research and development, improving infrastructure, and promoting ecosystem restoration, Nigeria can mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and ensure sustainable agricultural practices for future generations. Collaborative efforts at all levels, local, national, and international are crucial to safeguarding the nation's agricultural heritage and economic stability.

10. Future research and way forward

While this study provides valuable insights into the impacts of climate change on Nigeria's agricultural sector, several areas require further research. First, there is a need for more detailed studies on the physiological and ecological impacts of climate change on crops, livestock, and fisheries. For example, research on the effects of heat stress on crop yields and pest dynamics can inform the development of climate-resilient agricultural practices. Second, future research should explore the socio-economic barriers to adaptation, particularly among smallholder farmers. Studies on the role of gender, land tenure, and market access in shaping adaptive capacity can provide valuable insights for designing targeted interventions. Third, there is a need for more research on the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in different ecological zones. For instance, studies on the impact of irrigation systems in semi-arid regions and flood management practices in coastal areas can inform the development of region-specific adaptation plans. Finally, future research should focus on the integration of indigenous knowledge with modern technologies to enhance climate resilience. Documenting and validating indigenous practices can provide a valuable foundation for developing sustainable adaptation strategies.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Godspower Oke Omokaro: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft, Methodology, Investigation, Formal analysis, Data curation, Conceptualization.

Informed consent

Not applicable.

Ethics

Not applicable.

Funding

Not applicable.

Declaration of competing interest

The author declare that he has no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.