Skip to main content
PMC home page
Environmental Health Perspectives logoLink to Environmental Health Perspectives
. 2001 Mar;109(Suppl 1):141–161. doi: 10.1289/ehp.01109s1141

Climate change and mosquito-borne disease.

P Reiter 1
PMCID: PMC1240549  PMID: 11250812

Abstract

Global atmospheric temperatures are presently in a warming phase that began 250--300 years ago. Speculations on the potential impact of continued warming on human health often focus on mosquito-borne diseases. Elementary models suggest that higher global temperatures will enhance their transmission rates and extend their geographic ranges. However, the histories of three such diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue--reveal that climate has rarely been the principal determinant of their prevalence or range; human activities and their impact on local ecology have generally been much more significant. It is therefore inappropriate to use climate-based models to predict future prevalence.

Full Text

The Full Text of this article is available as a PDF (2.0 MB).

Selected References

These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.

  1. Adhami J., Reiter P. Introduction and establishment of Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus skuse (Diptera: Culicidae) in Albania. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1998 Sep;14(3):340–343. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  2. Brown A. W., Haworth J., Zahar A. R. Malaria eradication and control from a global standpoint. J Med Entomol. 1976 May 29;13(1):1–25. doi: 10.1093/jmedent/13.1.1. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  3. Bruce-Chwatt L. J. Malaria and its control: present situation and future prospects. Annu Rev Public Health. 1987;8:75–110. doi: 10.1146/annurev.pu.08.050187.000451. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  4. CROSNIER R. Considérations présentes sur le paludisme métropolitain; caractères et incidences. Rev Pathol Gen Physiol Clin. 1953 Nov;53(652):1299–1307. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  5. Coosemans M., Wery M., Storme B., Hendrix L., Mfisi B. Epidemiologie du paludisme dans la plaine de la Ruzizi, Burundi. Ann Soc Belg Med Trop. 1984 Jun;64(2):135–158. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  6. Craig M. H., Snow R. W., le Sueur D. A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Parasitol Today. 1999 Mar;15(3):105–111. doi: 10.1016/s0169-4758(99)01396-4. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  7. Dalla Pozza G. L., Romi R., Severini C. Source and spread of Aedes albopictus in the Veneto region of Italy. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1994 Dec;10(4):589–592. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  8. Davis A. J., Jenkinson L. S., Lawton J. H., Shorrocks B., Wood S. Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature. 1998 Feb 19;391(6669):783–786. doi: 10.1038/35842. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  9. Dobson M. J. Bitter-sweet solutions for malaria: exploring natural remedies from the past. Parassitologia. 1998 Jun;40(1-2):69–81. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  10. Dobson M. J. History of malaria in England. J R Soc Med. 1989;82 (Suppl 17):3–7. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  11. Dobson M. J. Malaria in England: a geographical and historical perspective. Parassitologia. 1994 Aug;36(1-2):35–60. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  12. Dobson M. Marsh fever: the geography of malaria in England. J Hist Geogr. 1980;6(4):357–389. doi: 10.1016/0305-7488(80)90145-0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  13. Dye C., Reiter P. Climate change and malaria: temperatures without fevers? Science. 2000 Sep 8;289(5485):1697–1698. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  14. Dye C. The analysis of parasite transmission by bloodsucking insects. Annu Rev Entomol. 1992;37:1–19. doi: 10.1146/annurev.en.37.010192.000245. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  15. Ehrenkranz N. J., Ventura A. K., Cuadrado R. R., Pond W. L., Porter J. E. Pandemic dengue in Caribbean countries and the southern United States--past, present and potential problems. N Engl J Med. 1971 Dec 23;285(26):1460–1469. doi: 10.1056/NEJM197112232852606. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  16. Ellman R., Maxwell C., Finch R., Shayo D. Malaria and anaemia at different altitudes in the Muheza district of Tanzania: childhood morbidity in relation to level of exposure to infection. Ann Trop Med Parasitol. 1998 Oct;92(7):741–753. doi: 10.1080/00034989858989. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  17. Epstein P. R. Climate and health. Science. 1999 Jul 16;285(5426):347–348. doi: 10.1126/science.285.5426.347. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  18. Epstein P. R. Global warming and vector-borne disease. Lancet. 1998 Jun 6;351(9117):1737–1738. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(05)77777-1. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  19. Fisk G. H. MALARIA AND THE ANOPHELES MOSQUITO IN CANADA. Can Med Assoc J. 1931 Dec;25(6):679–683. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  20. Foster K. R., Jenkins M. F., Toogood A. C. The Philadelphia yellow fever epidemic of 1793. Sci Am. 1998 Aug;279(2):88–93. doi: 10.1038/scientificamerican0898-88. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  21. GARNHAM P. C. DISTRIBUTION OF SIMIAN MALARIA PARASITES IN VARIOUS HOSTS. J Parasitol. 1963 Dec;49:905–911. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  22. Gahlinger P. M., Reeves W. C., Milby M. M. Air conditioning and television as protective factors in arboviral encephalitis risk. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1986 May;35(3):601–610. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1986.35.601. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  23. Gascon J., Pluymaekaers J., Bada J. L. Changing pattern of malaria in Nyarutovu(Rwanda) Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1984;78(3):421–422. doi: 10.1016/0035-9203(84)90152-4. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  24. Gunawardena D. M., Wickremasinghe A. R., Muthuwatta L., Weerasingha S., Rajakaruna J., Senanayaka T., Kotta P. K., Attanayake N., Carter R., Mendis K. N. Malaria risk factors in an endemic region of Sri Lanka, and the impact and cost implications of risk factor-based interventions. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1998 May;58(5):533–542. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1998.58.533. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  25. Haines A. Global warming and vector-borne disease. Lancet. 1998 Jun 6;351(9117):1737–1738. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(05)77778-3. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  26. Halstead S. B., Papaevangelou G. Transmission of dengue 1 and 2 viruses in Greece in 1928. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1980 Jul;29(4):635–637. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1980.29.635. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  27. Hawley W. A., Reiter P., Copeland R. S., Pumpuni C. B., Craig G. B., Jr Aedes albopictus in North America: probable introduction in used tires from northern Asia. Science. 1987 May 29;236(4805):1114–1116. doi: 10.1126/science.3576225. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  28. Hay S. I., Myers M. F., Burke D. S., Vaughn D. W., Endy T., Ananda N., Shanks G. D., Snow R. W., Rogers D. J. Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2000 Aug 1;97(16):9335–9339. doi: 10.1073/pnas.97.16.9335. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  29. Jetten T. H., Focks D. A. Potential changes in the distribution of dengue transmission under climate warming. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1997 Sep;57(3):285–297. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1997.57.285. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  30. Jones M. D., Reiter P. Entrainment of the pupation and adult activity rhythms during development in the mosquito Anopheles gambiae. Nature. 1975 Mar 20;254(5497):242–244. doi: 10.1038/254242a0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  31. Kovats R. S., Haines A., Stanwell-Smith R., Martens P., Menne B., Bertollini R. Climate change and human health in Europe. BMJ. 1999 Jun 19;318(7199):1682–1685. doi: 10.1136/bmj.318.7199.1682. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  32. LAIGRET J. Remarques d'ordre général concernant la régression du paludisme dans nos pays. Rev Pathol Gen Physiol Clin. 1953 Nov;53(652):1308–1312. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  33. Lindblade K. A., Walker E. D., Onapa A. W., Katungu J., Wilson M. L. Land use change alters malaria transmission parameters by modifying temperature in a highland area of Uganda. Trop Med Int Health. 2000 Apr;5(4):263–274. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-3156.2000.00551.x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  34. Lindsay S. W., Birley M. H. Climate change and malaria transmission. Ann Trop Med Parasitol. 1996 Dec;90(6):573–588. doi: 10.1080/00034983.1996.11813087. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  35. Lindzen R. S. Can increasing carbon dioxide cause climate change? Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1997 Aug 5;94(16):8335–8342. doi: 10.1073/pnas.94.16.8335. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  36. Loevinsohn M. E. Climatic warming and increased malaria incidence in Rwanda. Lancet. 1994 Mar 19;343(8899):714–718. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(94)91586-5. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  37. Longstreth J. Public health consequences of global climate change in the United States--some regions may suffer disproportionately. Environ Health Perspect. 1999 Feb;107 (Suppl 1):169–179. doi: 10.1289/ehp.99107s1169. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  38. MATSON A. T. The history of malaria in Nandi. East Afr Med J. 1957 Aug;34(8):431–441. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  39. MEYUS H., LIPS M., CAUBERGH H. [The current state of the problem of highland malaria in Ruanda-Urundi]. Ann Soc Belg Med Trop (1920) 1962 Oct 31;42:771–782. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  40. Malakooti M. A., Biomndo K., Shanks G. D. Reemergence of epidemic malaria in the highlands of western Kenya. Emerg Infect Dis. 1998 Oct-Dec;4(4):671–676. doi: 10.3201/eid0404.980422. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  41. Martens W. J. Health impacts of climate change and ozone depletion: an ecoepidemiologic modeling approach. Environ Health Perspect. 1998 Feb;106 (Suppl 1):241–251. doi: 10.1289/ehp.98106s1241. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  42. Matola Y. G., White G. B., Magayuka S. A. The changed pattern of malaria endemicity and transmission at Amani in the eastern Usambara mountains, north-eastern Tanzania. J Trop Med Hyg. 1987 Jun;90(3):127–134. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  43. McFarland J. M., Baddour L. M., Nelson J. E., Elkins S. K., Craven R. B., Cropp B. C., Chang G. J., Grindstaff A. D., Craig A. S., Smith R. J. Imported yellow fever in a United States citizen. Clin Infect Dis. 1997 Nov;25(5):1143–1147. doi: 10.1086/516111. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  44. McMichael A. J., Patz J., Kovats R. S. Impacts of global environmental change on future health and health care in tropical countries. Br Med Bull. 1998;54(2):475–488. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.bmb.a011702. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  45. Miller B. R., Monath T. P., Tabachnick W. J., Ezike V. I. Epidemic yellow fever caused by an incompetent mosquito vector. Trop Med Parasitol. 1989 Dec;40(4):396–399. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  46. Molineaux L., Dietz K. Review of intra-host models of malaria. Parassitologia. 1999 Sep;41(1-3):221–231. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  47. Molineaux L. The pros and cons of modelling malaria transmission. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1985;79(6):743–747. doi: 10.1016/0035-9203(85)90107-5. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  48. Monath T. P. Facing up to re-emergence of urban yellow fever. Lancet. 1999 May 8;353(9164):1541–1541. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(99)00155-5. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  49. Monath T. P., Nasidi A. Should yellow fever vaccine be included in the expanded program of immunization in Africa? A cost-effectiveness analysis for Nigeria. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1993 Feb;48(2):274–299. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1993.48.274. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  50. Monath T. P. Yellow fever: Victor, Victoria? Conqueror, conquest? Epidemics and research in the last forty years and prospects for the future. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1991 Jul;45(1):1–43. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1991.45.1. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  51. Moore C. G., Mitchell C. J. Aedes albopictus in the United States: ten-year presence and public health implications. Emerg Infect Dis. 1997 Jul-Sep;3(3):329–334. doi: 10.3201/eid0303.970309. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  52. Mouchet J., Faye O., Juivez J., Manguin S. Drought and malaria retreat in the Sahel, west Africa. Lancet. 1996 Dec 21;348(9043):1735–1736. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(05)65860-6. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  53. Mouchet J., Laventure S., Blanchy S., Fioramonti R., Rakotonjanabelo A., Rabarison P., Sircoulon J., Roux J. La reconquête des Hautes Terres de Madagascar par le paludisme. Bull Soc Pathol Exot. 1997;90(3):162–168. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  54. Mouchet J., Manguin S., Sircoulon J., Laventure S., Faye O., Onapa A. W., Carnevale P., Julvez J., Fontenille D. Evolution of malaria in Africa for the past 40 years: impact of climatic and human factors. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1998 Jun;14(2):121–130. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  55. Nasidi A., Monath T. P., DeCock K., Tomori O., Cordellier R., Olaleye O. D., Harry T. O., Adeniyi J. A., Sorungbe A. O., Ajose-Coker A. O. Urban yellow fever epidemic in western Nigeria, 1987. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1989 May-Jun;83(3):401–406. doi: 10.1016/0035-9203(89)90518-x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  56. Nelson H. E. Disease, demography, and the evolution of social structure in Highland New Guinea. J Polyn Soc. 1971;80(2):204–216. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  57. Nájera J. A. A critical review of the field application of a mathematical model of malaria eradication. Bull World Health Organ. 1974;50(5):449–457. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  58. O'Meara G. F., Evans L. F., Jr, Gettman A. D., Cuda J. P. Spread of Aedes albopictus and decline of Ae. aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Florida. J Med Entomol. 1995 Jul;32(4):554–562. doi: 10.1093/jmedent/32.4.554. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  59. PETERS W., CHRISTIAN S. H., JAMESON J. L. Malaria in the highlands of Papua and New Guinea. Med J Aust. 1958 Sep 27;2(13):409–416. doi: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.1958.tb58493.x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  60. PETERS W., CHRISTIAN S. H. Studies on the epidemiology of malaria in New Guinea. 4. Unstable highland malaria--the clinical picture. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1960 Nov;54:529–536. doi: 10.1016/0035-9203(60)90027-4. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  61. Patz J. A., Epstein P. R., Burke T. A., Balbus J. M. Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases. JAMA. 1996 Jan 17;275(3):217–223. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  62. Patz J. A., Martens W. J., Focks D. A., Jetten T. H. Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change. Environ Health Perspect. 1998 Mar;106(3):147–153. doi: 10.1289/ehp.98106147. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  63. RUSSELL P. F. World-wide malaria distribution, prevalence, and control. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1956 Nov;5(6):937–965. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1956.5.937. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  64. Reiter P. Aedes albopictus and the world trade in used tires, 1988-1995: the shape of things to come? J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1998 Mar;14(1):83–94. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  65. Reiter P., Cordellier R., Ouma J. O., Cropp C. B., Savage H. M., Sanders E. J., Marfin A. A., Tukei P. M., Agata N. N., Gitau L. G. First recorded outbreak of yellow fever in Kenya, 1992-1993. II. Entomologic investigations. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1998 Oct;59(4):650–656. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1998.59.650. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  66. Reiter P. From Shakespeare to Defoe: malaria in England in the Little Ice Age. Emerg Infect Dis. 2000 Jan-Feb;6(1):1–11. doi: 10.3201/eid0601.000101. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  67. Reiter P. Global-warming and vector-borne disease in temperate regions and at high altitude. Lancet. 1998 Mar 14;351(9105):839–840. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(05)78979-0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  68. Reiter P., Sprenger D. The used tire trade: a mechanism for the worldwide dispersal of container breeding mosquitoes. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1987 Sep;3(3):494–501. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  69. Reiter P. The action of lecithin monolayers on mosquitoes. III. Studies in irrigated rice-fields in Kenya. Ann Trop Med Parasitol. 1980 Oct;74(5):541–557. doi: 10.1080/00034983.1980.11687382. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  70. Rigau-Pérez J. G. The early use of break-bone fever (Quebranta huesos, 1771) and dengue (1801) in Spanish. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1998 Aug;59(2):272–274. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1998.59.272. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  71. Robert V., Gazin P., Boudin C., Molez J. F., Ouedraogo V., Carnevale P. La transmission du paludisme en zone de savane arborée et en zone rizicole des environs de Bobo Dioulasso (Burkina Faso). Ann Soc Belg Med Trop. 1985;65 (Suppl 2):201–214. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  72. Roberts D. R., Laughlin L. L., Hsheih P., Legters L. J. DDT, global strategies, and a malaria control crisis in South America. Emerg Infect Dis. 1997 Jul-Sep;3(3):295–302. doi: 10.3201/eid0303.970305. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  73. Robertson S. E., Hull B. P., Tomori O., Bele O., LeDuc J. W., Esteves K. Yellow fever: a decade of reemergence. JAMA. 1996 Oct 9;276(14):1157–1162. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  74. Rogers D. J., Randolph S. E. The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science. 2000 Sep 8;289(5485):1763–1766. doi: 10.1126/science.289.5485.1763. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  75. Romi R., Pierdominici G., Severini C., Tamburro A., Cocchi M., Menichetti D., Pili E., Marchi A. Status of malaria vectors in Italy. J Med Entomol. 1997 May;34(3):263–271. doi: 10.1093/jmedent/34.3.263. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  76. Romi R., Sabatinelli G., Savelli L. G., Raris M., Zago M., Malatesta R. Identification of a North American mosquito species, Aedes atropalpus (Diptera: Culicidae), in Italy. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1997 Sep;13(3):245–246. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  77. SIMIC C. Le paludisme en Yougoslavie. Bull World Health Organ. 1956;15(3-5):753–766. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  78. Shanks G. D., Biomndo K., Hay S. I., Snow R. W. Changing patterns of clinical malaria since 1965 among a tea estate population located in the Kenyan highlands. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2000 May-Jun;94(3):253–255. doi: 10.1016/s0035-9203(00)90310-9. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  79. Siegel R. E., Poynter F. N. ROBERT TALBOR, CHARLES II, AND CINCHONA A CONTEMPORARY DOCUMENT. Med Hist. 1962 Jan;6(1):82–85. doi: 10.1017/s0025727300026892. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  80. Stewart D. A. Malaria in Canada. Can Med Assoc J. 1932 Feb;26(2):239–241. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  81. Taubes G. Apocalypse not. Science. 1997 Nov 7;278(5340):1004–1006. doi: 10.1126/science.278.5340.1004. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  82. Walsh J. F., Molyneux D. H., Birley M. H. Deforestation: effects on vector-borne disease. Parasitology. 1993;106 (Suppl):S55–S75. doi: 10.1017/s0031182000086121. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  83. Zucker J. R. Changing patterns of autochthonous malaria transmission in the United States: a review of recent outbreaks. Emerg Infect Dis. 1996 Jan-Mar;2(1):37–43. doi: 10.3201/eid0201.960104. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Articles from Environmental Health Perspectives are provided here courtesy of National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

RESOURCES