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. 2002 Aug;110(8):783–790. doi: 10.1289/ehp.02110783

Disease transmission models for public health decision making: analysis of epidemic and endemic conditions caused by waterborne pathogens.

Joseph N S Eisenberg 1, M Alan Brookhart 1, Glenn Rice 1, Mary Brown 1, John M Colford Jr 1
PMCID: PMC1240949  PMID: 12153759

Abstract

Developing effective policy for environmental health issues requires integrating large collections of information that are diverse, highly variable, and uncertain. Despite these uncertainties in the science, decisions must be made. These decisions often have been based on risk assessment. We argue that two important features of risk assessment are to identify research needs and to provide information for decision making. One type of information that a model can provide is the sensitivity of making one decision over another on factors that drive public health risk. To achieve this goal, a risk assessment framework must be based on a description of the exposure and disease processes. Regarding exposure to waterborne pathogens, the appropriate framework is one that explicitly models the disease transmission pathways of pathogens. This approach provides a crucial link between science and policy. Two studies--a Giardia risk assessment case study and an analysis of the 1993 Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Cryptosporidium outbreak--illustrate the role that models can play in policy making.

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Selected References

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