Analysis of china’s population problem and three-child policy adjustment in the new development stage

ABSTRACT

Background:

The continuous evolution of China’s population policy has not only achieved demographic transition but also brought about issues suchas social aging and gender imbalance.

Aims:

This study examines China’s birth policy changes, current population development, and future birth policy reformation since entering the new stage of development.

Settings and Design:

The research follows the principle of the unity of policy logic and history, and is carried out from three aspects: the significance of policy reform, the effect of addressing population issues, and the implementation environment.

Methods and Material:

The literature research method is used to sort out the evolution of birth policies, and the data of the 5^th, 6^th, and 7^th national population censuses are used to analyze the current situation of population development.

Statistical Analysis Used:

Descriptive Statistics.

Results and Conclusions:

The following conclusions can be drawn: First, the aging population problem is an inevitable, unrealistic social development trend that may cause a soaring social dependency ratio. A social pension system would solve the aging problem. Second, China’s birth policy may not have improved the birth rate. Third, China’s birth policy objective of widening family space and addressing human caused gender imbalances may prevent population inertia’s impact. Fourth, the birth policy was foundational in implementing China’s macroeconomic regulation and control policy.

Introduction

Population is a global and strategic issue that must be considered for the sustainable development of every country, and it concerns the long-term development of the country as well as the survival of the nation.[1] Based on socio-economic development and the carrying capacity of resources and the environment, each country’s or region’s starting point in formulating and implementing population control is an appropriate population size, a reasonable population structure, and a high population quality.[2] As the world’s most populous country, China has undergone policy adaptations including fertility encouragement, birth control, and family planning.[3] The process of policy adaptation has resulted in a population policy and population theory system with Chinese characteristics. However, there are two sides to any policy, and even policies with the best intentions can have side effects. China’s early birth control and family planning policies effectively relieved the pressure on the demand for the means of living brought about by the population stock and population growth at that time.[4] Additionally, it improved the living standards of the nation and facilitated China’s transformation from a large population to a strong human resource country. However, side effects of these policies gradually emerged in recent years, including social aging, gender imbalance, and labor shortage. Data from the fifth, sixth, and seventh national censuses provide a good indication of China’s population development trends. In 2000, the total population growth rate was 11.66%, the sex ratio was 106.74, and the percentage of the population over 65 years old was 6.96%; in 2010, the national total population growth rate was 5.84%, the sex ratio was 105.20, and the percentage of the population over 65 years old was 8.87%; in 2020, the national total population growth rate was 5.38%, the sex ratio was 105.07, and the percentage of the population over 65 years old was 13.50%. These three censuses illustrate China’s unreasonable population structure at this stage. At a new historical starting point, in response to the persistently low birth rate and aging society, China implemented a policy that allows a couple to have three children and enables support measures. This marked the gradual adjustment of China’s fertility policy back to a family birth plan.

The Evolution of China’s Fertility Policy

Tracing the population policy after the founding of New China can be summarized into three stages: fertility promotion, birth control, and family planning.

Stages of childbirth promotion (1949-1953)

At the beginning of the founding of New China, China adopted a population policy for promoting fertility in the face of an economic and social situation that was riddled with problems, such as material shortages, soaring prices, and increased adversities in life. High population mortality and infant mortality rates, short life expectancy, and low growth rates were notable features of this period, and labor shortage became an important factor limiting the recovery and development of the national economy at that time.[5] Given this development, the Chinese government stipulated in 1950 that “before an abortion can be performed, the consent of the husband must be signed” and that the procedure must be approved by a public hospital obstetrician and gynecologist. This approach worked well for maternal security and contributed to population growth at that time.

Stage of birth control (1954-1961)

Under the impact of the fertility concept of “more people are a good thing, and many people are powerful,” China’s population in 1953 reached 587 million, indicating an increase of more than 46 million from 1949. The mismatch between rapid population growth and food production was taken seriously by the country’s top leadership, and the state began to advocate birth control. In February 1955, the Chinese Ministry of Health submitted a report on birth control, reviewing the sloppy cognition of birth control in the past, proposing that birth control should be appropriately implemented according to the historical conditions at that time, and formulating corresponding guidelines and specific measures. In the birth control stage, China’s guiding ideology on population remained in a state of uncertainty.[6] The birth control policy was mainly discussed at the upper level and was only promoted in a few pilot areas.

Family planning stage (1962 to present)

In 1962, the population reached 673 million, a net increase of 130 million from 1949, and it was urgent to ease the pressure of the population on the economy and society. During that time, the Chinese government reached a consensus on the issue of population control and issued the “Instructions on Conscientiously Promoting Family Planning” in 1962, which meant that family planning officially began. In 1963, the Chinese government once again stressed the need to actively carry out family planning and approved relevant instructions. Family planning policies were gradually carried out with a focus on urban areas. In 1973, the government established the Family Planning Leading Group, and in 1975, the policy was implemented for individuals based on local experiences. In October 1978, the Chinese government proposed that a couple should have a maximum of two children, preferably only one child. This policy lasted until the autumn of 1980 and achieved remarkable results in population control.

The policy of reform and opening up effectively drove the development of China’s family planning and broadened the thinking of several family planning cadres and population theory researchers.[7] In September 1980, China’s government advocated that a couple should only have one child, that is, the “one-child” policy, which marked a new stage of family planning. However, the policy did not have the desired effect due to the lack of public support, and instead, the forward movement of the childbearing age contributed to a rebound in population growth.[8] In the face of the backlash brought about by the “one-child” policy, the Chinese government adjusted the family planning policy in February 1982, requiring civil servants, workers, and urban residents to have only one child per couple, unless approved under special circumstances. After subsequent adjustments, the policy achieved remarkable results, completely reversing the momentum of China’s rapid population growth. In the 1990s, China’s fertility rate fell below the population replacement level, completing the demographic transition; however, the demographic structure began to change significantly. In 2000, the aging coefficient exceeded 7%, and China was considered as an international standard aging country. In 2011, China’s labor supply peaked, and the demographic situation underwent new changes. In November 2013, the Chinese government proposed a policy allowing couples with only one child to have a second child, marking another milestone in the population policy. In May 2021, the Chinese government proposed that a couple should be allowed to have three children to optimize the fertility policy. The successive introduction of these policies shows that the focus of the current Chinese policy has shifted from controlling population growth in the past to coping with demographic changes.

Analysis of Population Development in China

The population policy that keeps pace with the times has enabled China to undergo an unprecedented scale of demographic transformation. Based on the underdeveloped economy and society, the population control policy made significant contributions to China’s economic and social progress.[9] While affirming the positive effects of early population control policies, it is also necessary to consider its side effects. The quantity, structure, and distribution of the Chinese population should thus be examined for sustainable development, and the various socio-economic challenges brought by population problems in the new stage of development should calmly be addressed.

Quantity of Chinese population

Population quantity and population growth are related to national population security and are the core concerns of every country’s population reproduction and demographic transition process.[10] From 1949 to 2020, China’s population increased from 542 million to 1.412 billion, and the average annual natural growth rate reached 13.83%. In 1990, the natural growth rate of China’s population began to decline, and at the beginning of the new century, the natural growth rate of China’s population dropped below 10% or even less than 5% in some exceptional years. Although the “two-child” policy was introduced in 2013, the increase in birth rates rebounded the natural population growth rate, but the effect of the policy was not conspicuous. The natural population growth rate fell below 5% in 2018, and fell to a record low in 2020, with a natural population growth rate of only 1.45%. These changing trends in the Chinese population and natural growth were closely related to the early implementation of fertility policies, and the deformed characteristics of continuous population growth and decline in natural growth rates were the result of fertility policy regulation.

Judging from the current Chinese development situation, the inertia of sustained population growth in the short term will not disappear. However, with the long-term decline in birth rates and the peak of population aging, the natural population growth rate will decrease to zero, followed by a further decrease to below zero, causing the population to decrease. It is important to precisely determine the appropriate population size for China before the population begins to decline. There are differences in the estimates: there are views that the large Chinese population has caused significant pressure on the society, economy, and resource environments. Consequently, the long-term strategic goal of population development should be set at a moderate size of 300-500 million people, advocating adherence to long-term birth restriction policies. Others argue that when the momentum of excessive population growth ends and the fertility rate is low for a long time, policies should be introduced timeously to prevent long-term negative growth after the population peaks.[11] These two views represent different concepts of population development strategies; however, the implementation effect of the “comprehensive two-child” policy seems to prove that the second view is more conducive to China’s long-term population development.

Structure of the Chinese population

Demographic issues usually include both the age and gender structures of the population.[12] With the implementation and advancement of population policies, the age and gender structures of the population have undergone significant changes. Regarding age structure, the problem of population aging has become prominent. According to the data of the seventh national population census in 2020, the proportion of individuals aged 60 years and older was 18.7%, of which 13.5% were aged 65 years or older, while in the results of the census in 2010, the proportion of individuals older than 60 years was 13.26%, of which 8.87% were aged 65 years or older. In 10 years, the proportion of China’s population exceeding 60 years of age increased by 5.44%, and the proportion of individuals over 65 years of age increased by 4.63%. This indicates that the size of China’s older adult population is gradually becoming more serious. With the implementation of the family planning policy, the proportion of children aged 0-14 years continued to decline until the implementation of the “two-child” policy, which reversed the trend; however, the proportion of the older adult population over 65 years of age has been continuously increasing, mainly due to the increase in life expectancy.

Influenced by the concept that men are the main labor force in the family in traditional agricultural societies, Chinese society usually has a patriarchal conception of childbearing, and women who give birth to boys have a higher status in the family than women who give birth to girls. This narrow conception of fertility clashed with the planned policies that were fully implemented in the 1970s, resulting in a serious imbalance in the gender structure of the population. According to the population sample survey data over the years, before the implementation of the family planning policy, the gender structure of the population was relatively reasonable, and the sex ratio of the population aged 0-4 years was only 104.90 in 1953 and 106.60 in 1964. However, with the implementation of the family planning policy, the gender structure of the population became unbalanced, and the sex ratio of the population aged 0-4 years peaked at 123.59 in 2007, after which the sex ratio of the birth population began to gradually decline. According to the data from previous censuses, the sex ratio of China’s total population remained stable. The first census data in 1953 showed that the sex ratio of the total population was 107.56, and the data of the seventh population census in 2020 was 105.07; however, the number of men in comparison to women in the total population is increasing. The first census in 1953 showed that there were 21.2 million more men than women, the figure grew to a historical peak of 41.27 million in the fifth census in 2000, and the number of men outnumbered women at 34.9 million in the seventh census in 2020, indicating that there are still more than 30 million men who deal with singleness.

Distribution of the Chinese population

After the reform and opening up, with the economic and social development and labor flow, the number and structure of China’s population have gradually shown an imbalance in geographical space.[13] The data from China’s first population census in 1953 showed that the rural population was 505.34 million, accounting for 86.74% of the total population, and the urban population was 77.26 million, accounting for 13.26% of the total population. The results of the sixth population census conducted in 2010 showed that the rural population was 674.15 million, accounting for 50.32% of the total population, and the urban population was 665.57 million, accounting for 49.68% of the total population, indicating similar urban and rural populations. The results of the seventh population census conducted in 2020 showed that the rural population was 509.79 million, accounting for 36.11% of the total population, and the urban population was 901.99 million, accounting for 63.89% of the total population, indicating that the urban population exceeded the rural population. From the census data in 2020, cross-regional migration within the population is evident, and the current population in the eastern region accounts for 39.93%, the central region accounts for 25.83%, the western region accounts for 27.12%, and the northeast region accounts for 6.98%. Compared to the 2010 census, the proportion of the population in the eastern region increased by 2.15% in 10 years, the proportion of the population in the central region decreased by 0.79%, the proportion of the population in the western region increased by 0.22%, and the proportion of the population in the northeast decreased by 1.20%. The distribution of population between urban and rural areas and between regions adjusted over time.

In addition to the spatial change in the total population, the structure also shows spatial characteristics.[14] In 1964, the population over 65 years of age in rural areas was 20,717,600, and the urban population over 65 years of age was 3,755,500, indicating that the rural population over 65 years of age exceeded those in urban areas by 16,962,100. This gap has continued to widen for more than two decades. By 1990, the population over 65 years of age in rural areas was 47.8781 million, and the urban population over 65 years of age was 15.1153 million, indicating that the number of individuals over 65 years of age in rural areas exceeded those in urban areas by more than 30 million. According to the results of the sixth national population census conducted in 2010, the number of older adults over 65 years of age in rural areas exceeded 14 million in urban areas, and by 2017, the number of older adults over 65 years of age in urban areas exceeded that of rural areas by more than 6 million. The results of the seventh national population census conducted in 2020 showed that the elderly population over 65 years of age in urban areas and villages accounted for 11.11% and 17.72%, respectively, and the older adult population over 65 years of age in urban areas exceeded those in rural areas by 9.87 million. This indicated that the number of older adults in urban areas was large, however, the rural population was more aging. In addition to spatial changes in age structure, census data from 2020 showed that among the 31 provinces in the country, the sex ratio of the population in Liaoning and Jilin provinces was less than 100, the sex ratio of the population in Guangdong Province, Hainan Province, and Tibet Autonomous Region was greater than 110, and the sex ratio of the population in the remaining provinces was between 100 and 110. This indicated that Liaoning and Jilin had fewer males than females, while Guangdong, Hainan, and Tibet had the opposite situation, indicating gender imbalances between provinces.

Analysis of the Reform of the Three-Child Policy

Entering a new stage of development, the Chinese government decided to further optimize the fertility policy on May 31, 2021, implementing the “three-child” policy and supporting support measures, which is another major population policy adjustment made by China. Based on the development context of China’s fertility policy and the practical problems faced by population development, this study makes the following comments on the significance, policy effects, and implementation environment of the “three-child” fertility policy reform.

The significance of the reform of the three-child policy

China’s three-child policy is a reflection of the gradual return of reproductive rights from the state plan to the family plan. The family planning policy successfully achieved the goal of population control against difficulty, reduced population growth, and successfully completed the transformation of China. The turning point in the demographic situation exposed the balanced development of the population, such as the decline of the working-age population, the deepening of social aging, and the high sex ratio at birth. Given these problems, the country has liberalized the two-child system and no longer requires birth spacing for individuals of childbearing age. However, the effect of the two-child policy was not satisfactory, the state has consequently introduced the three-child policy. Having three children can meet the requirements of the vast majority of individuals of childbearing age, which means the decision of when and how many children are almost completely determined by the family, and the right to reproduction begins to gradually return from state planning to family planning. However, China’s family plan is slightly different from that of developed countries, and this difference, as reflected in China’s family plan, maintains a certain degree of population control, and it is not completely liberalized in the number of childbirths. Because China is a populous country, and the complete liberalization of fertility authority may fall into the dilemma of population explosion, proper population control is necessary when the population development situation is unclear.

China’s introduction of the three-child policy can to some extent correct the current negative conception of fertility among individuals. For thousands of years, the traditional cultural concept of multi-child fertility has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the characteristics of “high birth, high death, and low growth” have enabled the population in this period to be in a relatively balanced state. However, with the continuous improvement of people’s living standards and medical and health conditions, the population’s mortality rate decreased rapidly. Population development has shifted to a development track characterized by “high births, low deaths, and high growth.” The rapid growth of the population in a short period of time made China realize the urgency of population control, consequently, China successively proposed a series of population control policies in the 1970s, which were strictly implemented throughout the country. Continuous population control changed the people’s concept of fertility culture, and the idea of “fewer births and eugenics” occupied the mainstream. The results of several social surveys have shown that after the introduction of the comprehensive two-child policy, the willingness of individuals of childbearing age to have children remained low, and the birth rate has not grown as rapidly as expected, which may indicate a restraining effect caused by the change of fertility culture. China’s three-child policy has to some extent released a signal to society to encourage childbearing, which helps to reshape the concept of folk fertility culture.

The three-child policy’s response to population issues

China’s introduction of the three-child policy may affect population numbers. In the short term, this policy is unlikely to cause a new “baby boom,” because the birth of the third child is premised on the birth of the second child, and the proportion of individuals who have two children in the current childbearing age group is not very high. Furthermore, the size of the two-child childbearing age group who are willing to have a third child is not very large, accounting for less than 10%, and two children are the ideal number of children for most of the current childbearing age population. However, in the long run, the state’s three-child policy has a positive effect on the stability of the Chinese population, because population growth is geometrically progressive without the intervention of external factors. Thus, the three children who account for a small proportion now will become the main force of population growth after several generations. This can serve as a good buffer against possible negative population growth in the future.

China’s introduction of the three-child policy may have an impact on the demographic structure. Aging and population sex ratio imbalance is the main structural problem China’s population is currently facing, the “three-child” policy will not have an immediate effect on population aging and sex ratio imbalance, and it is unrealistic to expect this policy to alleviate the population aging crisis, change the age of the labor force, and resolve the imbalance of the population sex ratio. Structural problems such as population aging, high labor force age, and imbalance in the sex ratio of the population are closely related to the early implementation of population control policies. This structural problem will take a generation or even several generations to slowly balance, rather than a short-term solution by raising the birth rate. Population aging is an inevitable trend of social progress and may become a normal problem in population development in the future, which needs to be correctly understood and treated.

The possible impact of China’s three-child policy on population distribution. With the large-scale population migration, showing the characteristics of flowing from rural to urban areas and from west to east at the micro and macro levels, the floating population has the characteristics of youth and high quality. The long-term flow of population caused drastic changes in the spatial distribution of population, and the number and structure of the population have shown an apparent imbalance in the spatial distribution of “rural older adults, urban young people, and more people in the east and less in the west.” This uneven distribution of population space is likely to cause problems such as rural socio-economic depression, a sharp increase in the difficulty of urban social management, and tension between the coordinated development of population and environment in the East. However, the three-child policy may solve the problem of uneven distribution of the population and alleviate the pressure of social and economic development caused by uneven distribution by tilting the policy on fertility, housing, and education security for individuals of childbearing age in areas with serious population loss such as rural and western regions.

The implementation environment of the three-child policy

The effect of the implementation of any policy is closely related to the living environment of the policy,[15] and the construction of the implementation environment of the three-child policy needs to be considered from the aspects of corresponding supporting measures and social culture. Regarding supporting measures, it is necessary to attempt to eliminate the mentality of individuals of childbearing age who want to give birth but dare not give birth from the perspective of the system. First, it is necessary to reduce childbearing-age individuals’ economic burden of giving birth and raising children, increase financial subsidies for families with two or more children, and specifically help with tax payment standards, various social insurance compensation standards, housing, water, electricity, and property expenses, to achieve full coverage of maternity insurance. Second, it is necessary to improve the public service system and strengthen the construction of basic education and medical and health service system facilities such as nurseries, kindergartens, primary schools, children’s hospitals, and maternal and child health care hospitals. It should also be considered to extend the nine-year compulsory education to the upper secondary education stage and provide special subsidies for higher education for families with two and three children, to reduce the economic cost of childcare for families with multiple children and achieve simultaneous population quantity and quality development. Finally, to strengthen the protection of women’s rights and interests, it may be feasible to attempt to extend women’s maternity and breastfeeding leave, and strictly implement the paid maternity leave system for women and men to ensure that men have enough time to take care of them in the process of childcare, establish community childcare consultation centers to publicize relevant parenting and self-health maintenance knowledge to women during pregnancy and the postpartum period and establish community psychological counseling centers to provide free psychological counseling to pregnant women to reduce their psychological pressure.

In the process of implementing public policies, social culture has a stronger permeability and lasting impact on public policies than politics and economics. The target groups for the implementation of public policies all live in a specific sociocultural environment, and they are constantly indoctrinated by the social culture, thus, ignoring the influence of the sociocultural environment will reduce the effectiveness of the implementation of public policies.[16] Whether the reform of the three-child policy introduced by the state can achieve the expected results is closely related to the current social fertility and marriage cultures. Under the earlier “a couple has one child” fertility culture concept and modern consumerist thinking, the delay of women’s first marriage and childbearing age has become a common social phenomenon. This trend of late marriage and late childbearing has reduced the birth rate to some extent, so strengthening the correct guidance of school-age youth’s view of marriage and fertility is also an important aspect to be considered in the construction of the three-child policy implementation environment. Specifically, regarding marriage and romance, it is necessary to strengthen the protection of the rights and interests of both parties toward marriage by law, correct the bad social customs such as bad marriage habits and high bride prices in society, and use the strength of civil affairs and marriage agencies to provide guidance and consultation to young individuals in need will allow the vast number of young people to establish a positive and correct view of marriage and romance. Regarding fertility, it is necessary to break young individuals’ fertility phobia, establish corresponding policies and mechanisms to reduce the expectations of young individuals for the direct and indirect costs of childbirth, guide young individuals to get out of the trap of fertility rationality that equates only children with fewer children and improve the enthusiasm of young individuals for childbirth.

Discussion

Human production and reproduction are related to whether a country can achieve healthy and sustainable development. Controlling population size, adjusting population structure, and improving population quality are strategic issues that every country must face in the development process. China’s population policy went through several practical stages: advocating fertility, controlling and planning families, successfully completing the population transformation, and forming a population policy system and theoretical system with Chinese characteristics. However, after entering the first stage of development, the birth rate continued to decline, and social birth rate, aging, imbalance of population sex ratio, and uneven spatial distribution became the main risks facing the sustainable development of the population. Consequently, China carried out “single two children,” “comprehensive two children,” and “three-child” progressive birth policy reforms, it can be seen that in terms of population policy, China is slowly changing from the past strict control to a family planning state. By combing through the development and evolution of China’s fertility policies and the current situation of population development, it can be preliminarily judged that the direction of fertility policy reform in the new development stage corresponds with the needs of development, however, the following issues must be addressed objectively and calmly: first, the aging problem is an inevitable trend of social development, relying on a short-term increase in birth rates to cope with aging seems unrealistic, however, it may cause a surge in the social dependency ratio. The key to coping with an aging population lies in the construction of a social old-age service system; second, the state’s introduction of the three-child policy may not have a significant effect on increasing the birth rate and alleviating the decline in social birth rates, and the main focus of solving this problem remains on having a second child; third, the main purpose of the three-child policy may be to broaden the space for family reproduction, solve the gender imbalance caused by human factors, and help prevent the impact of population inertia reduction in China; fourth, the three-child policy has laid the foundation for the implementation of macro-control policies for the spatial distribution of population. In academic research, we can compare and analyze China’s birth policy reform with other countries and regions. For example, some developed countries have also undergone a policy shift from encouraging childbirth to controlling childbirth and then to encouraging childbirth, but their policy adjustments have different backgrounds, goals, and means compared to China. Through comparative analysis, we can gain a deeper understanding of the uniqueness and commonalities of China’s birth policy reform, as well as its position and role in global population trends. In addition, we can further explore the impact of China’s birth policy reform on population structure, economic development, social progress, and other aspects.

In the future, how to formulate differentiated population policies and optimize population spatial distribution based on the actual population development in different regions will be a problem that policymakers need to think deeply about. However, any research has certain limitations. When discussing China’s population issues and adjustments to its fertility policy, we need to recognize the potential conflicts of interest and games that may exist in the process of policy formulation and implementation. Different interest groups have varying levels of understanding and acceptance of policies, which may lead to difficulties and challenges in policy implementation. Therefore, in future research, we need to pay more attention to the impact of conflicts of interest on policy formulation and implementation, as well as how to reduce conflicts of interest and achieve smooth policy implementation through effective policy communication and negotiation.

Conflicts of interest

There are no conflicts of interest.

Funding Statement

This research was supported by the Fundamental research Funds for the Central Universities (2024Lzujbkyqm006), the Science and Technology Innovation Strategy, and the Soft Science Research General Project of Anhui Province (202206f01050038).