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. 2025 Apr 21;29(3):343–351. doi: 10.4235/agmr.25.0008

Life Expectancy of the Tokugawa Shogun Family Estimated from Edo Period Historical Records

Hisashi Fujita 1,✉, Shinya Matsukawa 2, Hiroomi Tsumura 3, Dong Hoon Shin 4,✉
PMCID: PMC12489592  PMID: 40313081

Abstract

Background

This study aims to estimate the average life expectancy of the Tokugawa Shogun family by analyzing historical documents. The data is also compared to modern Japanese life expectancy figures.

Methods

The lifespan of members of the Tokugawa Shogun family is estimated based on data from Edo-period documents. We assess survival rates by age, sex, and other factors. Lunar calendar dates are converted into solar calendar dates, and birth years are counted as age 0 to ensure that the estimated life expectancy is comparable to modern Japanese estimates, free from bias.

Results

The mean life expectancy at birth for males in the Tokugawa Shogun family is 20.93±25.03 years, and for females, it is 20.53±25.16 years. The pooled result for both sexes is 20.75±25.00 years.

Conclusions

The life expectancy of the Tokugawa Shogun family is lower than that of modern Japanese, despite their status as the supreme elite class in Edo-period Japan. This reduced life expectancy is primarily attributed to high infant mortality rates, though survival rates for individuals aged 10 and above remained relatively consistent.

Keywords: Life expectancy, Japan, Tokugawa-Shogun family, History, Demography

INTRODUCTION

The goal of geriatrics is to promote a long, healthy life. In studying the lives and diseases of old population, it is crucial to examine the historical changes in lifespan (or life expectancy [LE]). The analysis of historical life expectancy has been reviewed by numerous scholars in the fields of geriatrics and gerontology.1) Demographic studies of the past are essential for understanding the lives and diseases of ancient populations,2) and average LE over time has been reported by several scholars in paleodemography.3-6)

For decades, bioanthropologists in Japan have also calculated LE using archaeological human remains.7-11) However, a significant limitation of studies based on skeletal specimens is the potential for severe bias, often due to the degradation of bones in the soil over time.12)

As a result, paleodemographic researchers have increasingly turned to historical resources. In Japan, studies on the average LE during the Tokugawa Shogunate period have been conducted by Hayami,13) Nakajima,14) Narimatsu,15) and others, using Edo-period documents such as the Shumon-Ninbetsu-Aratame-chō (宗門人別改帳; The Village People Register of Religious Faith and Relationship), etc. However, these documents mainly focus on commoners and exclude important data on samurai and other upper-class individuals. Additionally, they lack reliable information on infant mortality and other key demographic factors.

In this context, our study of documents related to the Tokugawa Shogun family—who were the highest ruling class during the Edo period—holds significant value. These documents are far more accurate than other sources and provide comprehensive data on the lifespan of Shogun family members, including detailed records of infant births and deaths.

Despite their invaluable demographic potential, these documents have yet to be properly analyzed. The objectives of this study are as follows: (1) to calculate the average LE of Tokugawa Shogun family members based on historical documents, (2) to estimate the paleodemographic patterns of the Edo period using survival curves and rates, and (3) to establish a foundation for applying the results of this study to other demographic data from the Edo period or contemporary Japan.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Tokugawa shoguns were the de facto head of government and the highest authority in the Edo period, although the emperor's family nominally ranked higher. In this study, we used multiple documents about Tokugawa Shogun family: Tokugawa Jikki (徳川実紀), Shoku-Tokugawa Jikki (続徳川実紀), Tokugawa Bakufu Keifu (徳川幕府系譜), Tokugawa-Bakufu Shoke Keifu (徳川幕府諸家系譜).16) These are top-rated data of Edo period that recorded the birth and death dates of the Shogun Family members. Table 1 summarizes the data of Shogun family members numbered a total of 151 individuals (83 males and 68 females). In our study, the names of individuals are removed from the data set for ethical issues to personal information.

Table 1.

Materials used in this study

ID Sex Birth day Death day Age at death Generation
1 2 June 27, 1560 July 1,1625 65 1
2 2 Second Half of September, 1565 March 3, 1615 49 1
3 1 March 1, 1574 June 2, 1607 33 1
4 1 May 2, 1579 March 14, 1632 52 1
5 1 October 18, 1580 April 1, 1607 26 1
6 2 November 21, 1580 August 2, 1617 36 1
7 1 October 28, 1583 October 25, 1603 19 1
8 1 February 16, 1592 August 24, 1683 91 1
9 1 August 16, 1594 February 7, 1599 4 1
10 1 April 16, 1602 April 20, 1600 4 1
11 2 March 25, 1595 March 6, 1598 3 1
12 1 January 2, 1601 June 5, 1650 49 1
13 1 April 28, 1602 February 19, 1671 68 1
14 1 September 15, 1603 August 23, 1661 57 1
15 2 January 28, 1607 March 7, 1610 3 1
16 2 May 26, 1597 March 11, 1666 68 2
17 2 May 9, 1599 August 9, 1622 23 2
18 2 June 12, 1601 March 20, 1672 70 2
19 1 July 30, 1601 November 8, 1602 1 2
20 2 August 25, 1602 April 16, 1630 27 2
21 1 August 12, 1604 June 8, 1651 46 2
22 1 June 17, 1611 February 4, 1973 62 2
23 2 November 23, 1607 August 2, 1678 70 2
24 2 April 29, 1637 January 10, 1699 62 3
25 1 September 7, 1641 June 4, 1680 38 3
26 1 March 26, 1645 September 6, 1647 2 3
27 1 June 28, 1644 November 8, 1678 34 3
28 1 February 23, 1648 February 19, 1709 62 3
29 1 February 3, 1648 August 22, 1648 0 3
30 1 June 11, 1662 November 12, 1712 50 5
31 2 May 20, 1676 April 15, 1704 27 5
32 1 June 14, 1679 July 22, 1683 4 5
33 2 October 7, 1681 November 20, 1682 1 6
34 1 October 10, 1699 October 10, 1699 0 6
35 1 August 7, 1707 October 23, 1707 0 6
36 1 February 1, 1709 September 5, 1710 1 6
37 1 August 8, 1709 June 19, 1716 6 6
38 1 October 8, 1711 November 15, 1711 0 6
39 1 January 28, 1712 July 12, 1761 49 8
40 1 December 22, 1715 July 15, 1771 56 8
41 1 May 3, 1719 June 23, 1719 0 8
42 1 September 7, 1721 January 13, 1765 43 8
43 2 October 26, 1721 December 13, 1722 1 8
44 1 June 20, 1737 September 29, 1786 49 9
45 1 March 17, 1745 August 22, 1795 50 9
46 2 August 16, 1756 May 29, 1757 0 10
47 2 August 30, 1761 March 12, 1773 11 10
48 1 December 10, 1762 April 10, 1779 16 10
49 1 February 1, 1763 April 28, 1763 0 10
50 1 April 26, 1796 June 10, 1799 3 11
51 2 April 20, 1789 July 13, 1817 28 11
52 2 November 7, 1790 November 8, 1790 0 11
53 1 August 30, 1792 July 31, 1793 0 11
54 2 August 13, 1796 May 13, 1798 1 11
55 1 June 22, 1793 August 26, 1853 60 11
56 1 June 6, 1794 June 6, 1794 0 11
57 1 January 19, 1796 April 8, 1797 1 11
58 1 April 13, 1798 September 4, 1798 0 11
59 2 January 10, 1800 May 26, 1800 0 11
60 2 June 6, 1802 April 25, 1803 0 11
61 2 November 14, 1796 May 20, 1797 0 11
62 2 September 14, 1798 July 26, 1799 0 11
63 2 May 27, 1800 August 30, 1853 53 11
64 1 October 16, 1801 July 1, 1846 44 11
65 2 November 28, 1803 July 30, 1804 0 11
66 2 January 23, 1806 June 17, 1807 1 11
67 2 June 3, 1801 July 3, 1802 1 11
68 1 September 16, 1803 November 4, 1805 1 11
69 1 March 30, 1806 October 29, 1810 4 11
70 1 April 6, 1809 June 29, 1813 4 11
71 1 July 14, 1810 August 23, 1845 35 11
72 2 February 14, 1813 September 6, 1830 17 11
73 1 September 17, 1815 November 24, 1817 2 11
74 2 January 22, 1804 June 10, 1857 53 11
75 2 April 19, 1806 September 5, 1806 0 11
76 2 September 1, 1808 September 18, 1821 13 11
77 2 December 12, 1807 September 14, 1811 3 11
78 2 August 20, 1809 April 20, 1837 27 11
79 2 February 15, 1811 August 18, 1811 0 11
80 2 February 23, 1813 September 4, 1814 1 11
81 1 June 18, 1818 May 5, 1821 2 11
82 1 June 8, 1820 April 19, 1849 28 11
83 1 September 19, 1822 April 8, 1823 0 11
84 1 January 10, 1810 July 3, 1827 17 11
85 2 May 4, 1811 April 24, 1847 35 11
86 1 May 14, 1812 April 20, 1826 13 11
87 1 September 12, 1814 March 23, 1891 76 11
88 1 March 7, 1817 July 27, 1817 0 11
89 2 August 9, 1818 February 5, 1869 50 11
90 1 December 11, 1819 August 1, 1839 19 11
91 1 October 14, 1821 January 30, 1868 46 11
92 2 April 27, 1813 June 20, 1868 55 11
93 2 November 17, 1815 July 7, 1817 1 11
94 2 October 28, 1817 December 1, 1872 55 11
95 1 October 25, 1813 May 23, 1814 0 11
96 2 August 1, 1815 February 8, 1816 0 11
97 2 February 8, 1819 September 23, 1875 56 11
98 1 October 30, 1820 October 16, 1838 17 11
99 1 March 10, 1823 July 4, 1841 18 11
100 1 April 26, 1825 June 17, 1844 19 11
101 1 July 20, 1819 May 9, 1839 19 11
102 2 November 20, 1827 February 2, 1843 15 11
103 1 November 22, 1813 October 9, 1814 0 12
104 2 March 27, 1815 March 28, 1815 0 12
105 2 December 11, 1816 December 14, 1816 0 12
106 2 November 5, 1814 January 19, 1819 4 12
107 1 September 12, 1819 May 1, 1820 0 12
108 1 May 1, 1825 July 10, 1838 13 12
109 1 July 11, 1822 July 15, 1822 0 12
110 2 February 18, 1826 August 19, 1826 0 12
111 1 May 6, 1824 September 14, 1858 34 12
112 1 March 17, 1826 November 15, 1827 1 12
113 1 October 18, 1828 April 27, 1829 0 12
114 2 May 21, 1824 April 8, 1829 4 12
115 2 June 24, 1826 June 7, 1840 13 12
116 1 July 25, 1829 August 25, 1830 1 12
117 1 April 5, 1832 January 15, 1834 1 12
118 2 August 8, 1835 July 29, 1836 0 12
119 1 July 15, 1838 July 4, 1839 0 12
120 2 July 11, 1842 June 28, 1843 0 12
121 2 September 13, 1833 August 11, 1834 0 12
122 2 May 8, 1836 September 14, 1837 1 12
123 2 November 2, 1839 June 22, 1840 0 12
124 1 October 7, 1843 October 7, 1843 0 12
125 2 October 9, 1844 August 9, 1845 0 12
126 1 January 4, 1846 September 20, 1846 0 12
127 2 March 8, 1848 October 24, 1848 0 12
128 1 October 13, 1852 September 18, 1853 0 12
129 1 November 10, 1849 November 11, 1849 0 12
130 2 August 28, 1858 August 28, 1858 0 15
131 1 August 15, 1871 June 27, 1872 0 15
132 2 June 2, 1873 September 29, 1893 20 15
133 2 October 27, 1875 December, 10 1921 46 15
134 1 August 28, 1877 January 1, 1948 70 15
135 1 August 17, 1878 November 28, 1878 0 15
136 2 August 24, 1880 September 29, 1880 0 15
137 2 September 23, 1882 August 18, 1939 56 15
138 1 September 2, 1884 January 22, 1922 37 15
139 2 March 22, 1887 July 5, 1924 37 15
140 1 August 23, 1888 July 17, 1932 43 15
141 1 October 21, 1871 April 17, 1872 0 15
142 1 November 5, 1872 July 5, 1873 0 15
143 1 February 21, 1874 June 12, 1930 56 15
144 2 April 3, 1875 July 22, 1875 0 15
145 2 July 14, 1876 November 30, 1907 31 15
146 2 August 17, 1878 October 8, 1978 0 15
147 2 September 17, 1880 January 13, 1954 73 15
148 2 January 23, 1882 September 11, 1942 60 15
149 2 September 18, 1883 October 11,1953 70 15
150 1 September 22, 1885 July 2, 1886 0 15
151 1 October 30, 1887 November 11, 1968 81 15
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Since the date system used during the Tokugawa Shogunate period was based on the lunar calendar until the Meiji Restoration, we converted the dates in historical records to the solar calendar for a demographic comparison with modern populations. For this conversion, we utilized the Japanese calendar date database from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (https://eco.mtk.nao.ac.jp/cgi-bin/koyomi/caldb.cgi). Our study is pioneering in that it is the first to convert the birth and death dates from the lunar to the solar calendar, a step that has not been undertaken in previous paleodemographic studies of Edo period populations. LE was then calculated by sex, and survival curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Additionally, we evaluated the months of birth and death.

RESULTS

Table 1 summarizes the name, sex, date of birth, date of death, and age at death for members of the Tokugawa Shogun family. The mean LE at birth for males is 20.93±25.03 years, and for females, it is 20.53±25.16 years. The sex-pooled mean LE at birth is 20.75±25.00 years (Table 2). A t-test revealed no significant difference in LE at birth between males and females (p=0.9228).

Table 2.

Average age at death on the Tokugawa Shogun family

Male Female Sex-pooled
Number of individuals 83 68 151
Minimum value 0 0 0
Maximum value 91 73 91
Class width 13 10.4 11.4
Average age at death 20.9277 20.5294 20.7483
Standard deviation 25.0257 25.1595 25.0030
level of significance 0.05 0.05 0.05
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Survival rates and survival curves, calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, are presented in Table 3 and Fig. 1, respectively. These analyses reveal that approximately 30% of individuals died at age 0, and nearly 50% had died by age 3. This is visually represented by the age-at-death distributions in Fig. 2A and 2B. Our estimates of LE for Tokugawa Shogun children (n=102) at age 1 are 30.71±24.88 years (30.47±24.92 years for males, 31.02±25.12 years for females), and at age 2 (n=87), the LE is 35.83±23.38 years (34.6±23.8 years for males, 37.51±22.97 years for females). The LE at age 2 closely aligns with the findings of Hayami.17) Fig. 3A and 3B depict the months of birth and death for the Tokugawa Shogun family, respectively, showing a lower mortality rate in winter and a higher rate in summer.

Table 3.

Survival rate at age in males and females of children of Tokugawa Shogun family

Male
 Female
Age at death Survival probability (%) Age at death Survival probability (%)
0 100 0 100
0 68.6746988 0 66.17647059
1 68.6746988 1 66.17647059
1 60.24096386 1 54.41176471
2 60.24096386 3 54.41176471
2 56.62650602 3 50
3 56.62650602 4 50
3 55.42168675 4 47.05882353
4 55.42168675 11 47.05882353
4 49.39759036 11 45.58823529
6 49.39759036 13 45.58823529
6 48.19277108 13 42.64705882
13 48.19277108 15 42.64705882
13 45.78313253 15 41.17647059
16 45.78313253 17 41.17647059
16 44.57831325 17 39.70588235
17 44.57831325 20 39.70588235
17 42.1686747 20 38.23529412
18 42.1686747 23 38.23529412
18 40.96385542 23 36.76470588
19 40.96385542 27 36.76470588
19 36.14457831 27 32.35294118
26 36.14457831 28 32.35294118
26 34.93975904 28 30.88235294
28 34.93975904 31 30.88235294
28 33.73493976 31 29.41176471
33 33.73493976 35 29.41176471
33 32.53012048 35 27.94117647
34 32.53012048 36 27.94117647
34 30.12048193 36 26.47058824
35 30.12048193 37 26.47058824
35 28.91566265 37 25
37 28.91566265 46 25
37 27.71084337 46 23.52941176
38 27.71084337 49 23.52941176
38 26.5060241 49 22.05882353
43 26.5060241 50 22.05882353
43 24.09638554 50 20.58823529
44 24.09638554 53 20.58823529
44 22.89156627 53 17.64705882
46 22.89156627 55 17.64705882
46 20.48192771 55 14.70588235
49 20.48192771 56 14.70588235
49 16.86746988 56 11.76470588
50 16.86746988 60 11.76470588
50 14.45783133 60 10.29411765
52 14.45783133 62 10.29411765
52 13.25301205 62 8.823529412
56 13.25301205 65 8.823529412
56 10.84337349 65 7.352941176
57 10.84337349 68 7.352941176
57 9.638554217 68 5.882352941
60 9.638554217 70 5.882352941
60 8.43373494 70 1.470588235
62 8.43373494 73 1.470588235
62 6.024096386 73 0
68 6.024096386 - -
68 4.819277108 - -
70 4.819277108 - -
70 3.614457831 - -
76 3.614457831 - -
76 2.409638554 - -
81 2.409638554 - -
81 1.204819277 - -
91 1.204819277 - -
91 0 - -
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Two equal ages indicate when that age was just reached and when it was the last of that age. Thus, the difference indicates a decrease in survival rate at that age.

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1.

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Survival curves of Tokugawa Shogun children, calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2.

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Plot of age at death for (A) females and (B) males in the Tokugawa Shogun family.

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3.

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(A) Birth month and (B) death month of the Tokugawa Shogun family.

DISCUSSION

Previous Reports on Edo People’s LE

To date, there have been several reports on the LE of Japanese populations prior to the 20th century, covering various groups. In summary, Kobayashi18) estimated the LE for males and females in Toraiwa Village (during the late Edo period) to be 36.8 years and 36.5 years, respectively. In his study, an individual's birth year was set to age 0 using a simple method that downgraded traditional age 1 to age 0. Hayami19) used Edo-period documents (Shumon-Ninbetsuaratame-cho) to estimate the LE of people at the time. While he was unable to calculate LE at birth, he reported the LE at age 2 as 32.0 years for males and 30.0 years for females. Narimatsu15) reported a LE of 37.7 years for males and 36.4 years for females in Niida Village, and a LE of 44.7 years for males and 43.3 years for females in Shimomoriya Village.20) Kalland and Pedersen21) reported an average LE of 44.7 years for males and 43.3 years for females in Senpukuji Village. Based on these reports, the average LE for Edo-period populations is generally estimated to have been in the late 30s to early 40s.

In this study, we estimate that the LE at birth for the Tokugawa Shogun family was around 20 years (male, 20.93 years; female, 20.53 years). This finding is particularly intriguing because the Tokugawa Shogun family was at the height of political and economic power during the Edo period. Given their superior standard of living compared to ordinary people, it is unusual that they might have had a shorter life expectancy than commoners of the time.

However, there are important considerations when comparing our Tokugawa data to previous reports. One key factor is the different methods of age calculation. Traditionally, in Japan, a person’s age was counted as 1 at birth. In the Edo period, according to the lunar calendar, the most significant issue is that there was no concept of "age 0"; individuals were considered to be 1 year old at birth.22) As a result, the life expectancy of Edo-period people may have been overestimated in previous studies. This not only complicates comparisons with modern populations, but also introduces potential inaccuracies in paleodemographic analyses. In our study, we estimate LE by converting all birth dates to the solar calendar and treat the birth year as age 0. We believe this approach largely corrects the errors in previous studies, providing a more accurate representation of life expectancy.

Comparison to Modern Japanese old population

According to the Simple Life Tables published by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (2023), the LE of modern Japanese is 81.09 years for males and 87.14 years for females, among the highest in the world. The infant mortality rate in modern Japan is approximately 0.2%, meaning about 1.8 deaths per 1,000 live births occur before the age of 1 year.23)

In our study, the infant mortality rate for the Tokugawa Shogun family was much higher: 31.33% for males and 33.85% for females by the end of age 0 (Table 3). This translates to roughly 313 male deaths and 339 female deaths per 1,000 live births before the age of 1. The high infant mortality rate during the Tokugawa period suggests that such rates were likely consistent across pre-modern Japan, as clearly illustrated in the report by Kobayashi.18) In his study, the mortality rates for Toraiwa Village, Nagano Prefecture, during the late Edo period were 49.4% for males (at age 4) and 50% for females (at age 3), indicating that half of all children born in the Edo period did not survive past age 3 or 4.

Following this early period of very high infant mortality, individuals from the Tokugawa Shogun family seem to experience a slower decline in survival rates up to age 10, with the trend continuing into their 70s and 80s (Fig. 1). Since the survival curve after age 10 is nearly linear with a gradual downward slope, it suggests that the mortality rate remained relatively stable throughout this period. According to the classification of survival curves by Pearl and Miner,24) the Tokugawa Shogun family’s survival curve resembles a Type III curve from age 0 to 3 and a Type II curve after age 10. In summary, the death rates of the Tokugawa Shogun family after age 10 were significantly lower than during their infancy.

Causes of Death

In this study, the Tokugawa Shogun family exhibited a lower mortality rate in winter and a higher rate in summer. This pattern is likely due to the fact that, while they were able to stay warm in the elaborately constructed Edo Castle during the winter months, there were no measures to address the heat during the summer. According to Kito,25) in his study of farmers in the Edo and Meiji periods, digestive system diseases were the most common cause of death in summer, while cold weather-related illnesses were the leading cause of death in winter. The causes of death within the Tokugawa Shogun family may not have differed significantly from Kito’s findings. Additionally, it can be inferred that specific causes of death for the Tokugawa Shogun family likely included respiratory infections, bacterial and viral diarrhea, parasitic diseases, and other health issues prevalent throughout the year.2,12,26)

We also consider lead poisoning as a potential cause of death for the Tokugawa Shogun family. Anthropological studies suggest that high-ranking individuals in Edo-period Japan may have been exposed to elevated levels of lead.27-29) But where did this high level of lead come from? One likely source is the cosmetics used during the Edo period. White makeup powder (Oshiroi; 白粉), which is thought to have originated in China, began to be used in Japan as early as the Asuka-Nara period. During the Keicho period (1596–1615), the production of white makeup powder became widespread in Sakai City30) and continued to be used by the Japanese population until the 1970s.31)

We disagree with the notion that the lead in white makeup powder significantly contributed to the high infant mortality rate during the Edo period. This is because children of high-ranking individuals, such as Shoguns and Daimyos, were not breastfed by their noble mothers, who typically used white makeup powder, but rather by nannies from middle- and lower-class warrior families (or sometimes townspeople).32-34) However, for adults, the possibility of lead poisoning as a cause of death cannot be entirely ruled out, particularly for high-ranking females of the Edo period. We believe that further investigation into this issue is necessary in the future.

Conclusion

In this study, we focused on the records of the Tokugawa Shogun family, for which the dates of birth and death are clearly and accurately documented. While records of other high-ranking families, such as the Daimyo or Hatamoto, are often biased, the well-managed records of the Shogun family throughout the Edo period are particularly valuable for estimating the LE of Edo-period Japanese. To eliminate biases caused by the lunar calendar and the traditional concept of age 0, we converted the date records to the solar calendar and counted the birth year as age 0. Our findings reveal that the LE of the Tokugawa family was much lower than that of modern Japanese, despite their status as the supreme elite class during the Edo period. This low LE is primarily attributed to the high infant mortality rate, while the mortality rate after age 10 remained relatively stable.

Footnotes

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

The researchers claim no conflicts of interest in the article.

FUNDING

This research was supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (No. 22H00020), Japan.

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

Conceptualization, HF, DHS; Dara curation, HF, SM, HT; Writing_original draft, HF, DHS; Writing_review & editing, HF, DHS.

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