Abstract
Background
Malaria remains a major public health concern in many low-income nations, including Ethiopia. Monitoring malaria trends through surveillance data is critical for informing control efforts and guiding stakeholders. As a result, we analyzed the five-year trend of malaria morbidity and mortality, distribution of malaria cases by Plasmodium species, demographic characteristics, and geographic areas, and identified potential gaps in malaria control efforts in the former Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR), Ethiopia, from 2017 to 2021 retrospectively.
Objective
This study aimed to conduct a retrospective analysis of malaria surveillance data in the former SNNPR, Ethiopia (2017–2021).
Methods
A retrospective analysis of malaria surveillance data from the former SNNPR was conducted from February 1 to 28, 2022. Data were collected, entered, cleaned, and analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2016. Descriptive analysis was performed, and results were presented using figures and maps.
Results
Overall, 6,292,147 suspected malaria cases were tested, with 999,687 (15.89%) confirmed positive in the laboratory and treated. Among confirmed malaria cases, 679,787 (68%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 319,900 (32%) by Plasmodium vivax. Additionally, 16,023(1.6%) were clinically diagnosed without laboratory confirmation. Malaria cases increased from 214,095 (13 per 1,000) in July 2021 to 270,274 (16 per 1,000) in December 2021. Over the five years, the highest malaria cases were reported in South Omo (22%), Gamo (19%), Wolaita (17%), Gofa (10%), and Hadiya (5%) zones. On average, 206,942 malaria cases were reported annually, with an incidence rate of 12 cases per 1,000 population, indicating a moderate risk level for the region. The malaria burden strata of the former SNNPR showed that transmission levels were moderate (annual parasite incidence (API) 10–100 cases per 1000) [Basketo, South Omo, Gofa, Konso, Gamo, Derashe, Ale, Wolaita, and Burji]; low (API 1–10 cases per 1,000) [Halaba, Amaro, Kambata, Silte, Hadya, Gedeo, and Gurage]; and very low or pre-elimination (API < 1 case per 1,000) [Yem special district].
Conclusion
Malaria continues to be a significant health challenge in the former SNNPR, with ongoing transmission in South Omo, Basketo, Gofa, Gamo, Derashe, Ale, Wolaita, and Burji. Seasonal peaks and increasing trends in 2021 highlight the need for action. We recommend enhancing surveillance, focusing on high-burden regions, and expanding vector control and community education, especially before peak seasons, to reduce transmission and achieve elimination goals.
Keywords: Retrospective analysis, Malaria surveillance data, SNNPR
Introduction
Ethiopia is one of the most malaria-endemic countries in Africa, with approximately 68% of the population at risk and around 75% of its geographic areas prone to transmission [1, 2]. Malaria remains the most common infectious disease in the country, accounting for nearly 30% of all disability-adjusted life years lost in Ethiopia [3, 4]. Although the national malaria incidence has declined significantly in recent years, a detailed understanding of how malaria prevalence varies across regions remains limited [5]. In response, the Federal Ministry of Health, anti-malaria non-governmental organizations, and other stakeholders have intensified their efforts to combat the disease. To support these initiatives, it is critical to quantify malaria incidence and analyze temporal trends, as doing so can inform the development of new intervention strategies or the scaling up of existing ones [6]. Routine malaria surveillance data play a vital role in this process, offering insights into disease trends, geographic stratification, and targeted control efforts [7].
Effective surveillance systems are essential for tracking malaria prevalence, assessing disease burden, and informing timely public health action [8, 9]. Accordingly the malaria burden strata of the region by zones and special districts was calculated based on the national malaria stratification map as [10], the malaria burden strata of the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR)- by zones and special districts for annual parasite incidence is high transmission (annual parasite incidence (API) > 100 cases/1,000); moderate transmission (API 10–100 cases/1000); low transmission (API 1–10 cases/1,000); and very low/pre-elimination (API < 1case/1,000), while global malaria reports offer comparative data by country. Despite progress, malaria continues to pose a major public health challenge in Ethiopia, particularly among economically productive populations in rural areas, where it has a significant impact on livelihoods and economic growth [11].
Globally, malaria cases and deaths have declined in recent years. However, the World Malaria Report highlighted a slight increase in cases in 2017 (219 million) compared to 2016 (217 million). Despite overall progress, Africa remains the most affected continent [12]. In Ethiopia, surveillance data are primarily derived from confirmed case reports, outpatient consultations, and deaths reported by public health facilities. These are often supplemented with household survey data on parasitemia prevalence and intervention coverage [13]. Given this context, analyzing surveillance data from 2017 to 2021 retrospectively, the present study aimed to assess disease trends and positivity rates, demographic characteristics, and geographic areas; to identify potential gaps; to provide evidence-based recommendations; and to inform responsible bodies to act on more effective malaria control and elimination strategies in the study areas.
Methods
Study area, design, and period
A retrospective review of malaria surveillance data reported weekly from 2017 to 2021 was conducted in the former SNNPR from February 1 to 28, 2022. The former SNNPR, one of Ethiopia’s malaria-endemic lowland areas, conducted a malaria surveillance data analysis. As of 2022, the region had an estimated population of 13.6 million, comprising 11 administrative zones and 6 special districts. Hawassa serves as the regional capital, although it is now part of the Sidama Region, established in June 2020. The region is bordered by Kenya to the south, South Sudan to the west, Gambela to the northwest, Oromia to the north and east, and Sidama to the east. Major towns include Arba Minch, Sodo, Jinka, Dila, and Hosaena. It’s also ethnically and linguistically diverse, with 42 ethnic groups and several widely spoken languages, including Wolaita, Hadiya, Gurage, and Gamo. Amharic serves as the working language due to the linguistic diversity. Approximately 90% of the population lives in rural areas, and nearly half are under the age of 15. The region is divided into 113 woredas, 34 town administrations, and 2,745 Kebeles. Healthcare services in the region are provided by both governmental [hospitals (53), health centers (525), and health posts (2575)], and private health facilities (250). Surveillance data were reported to the region through the public health emergency management (PHEM) system from hospitals and health centers, but the data do not include reports from private health facilities because the current national surveillance system doesn’t capture data from private health institutions. Surveillance aims to cover the entire study area for effective disease monitoring and control (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1.
Administrative Map of SNNPR, Ethiopia, 2022
Data collection, processing, and analysis
Malaria data were extracted from the regional PHEM database. The data extracted all available descriptive epidemiologic variables, such as confirmed malaria cases in outpatient departments, clinically diagnosed cases, total outpatient department visits, and malaria-related mortality documented over the five years (2017–2021).
Weekly malaria surveillance data were extracted and disaggregated by zone and district. Relevant variables were filtered and organized to support analysis of spatial and temporal trends. The dataset was cleaned, processed, and analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2016. Descriptive statistics, including means and percentages, were used to summarize findings. Trends in malaria incidence and burden were illustrated using graphs and figures.
Results
Malaria case distribution in the region
Between the study periods from January 2017 to December 2021, 6,292,147 suspected malaria cases were tested in the region [6 special districts and 11 zones]. Among those tested, 1,015,710 (16.1%) were confirmed positive and treated with antimalarial. Among confirmed malaria cases, 999,687 (98.4%), six hundred seventy nine thousand and seven hundred eighty seven (68%) were identified as Plasmodium falciparum, and 319,900 (32%) were due to Plasmodium vivax. Additionally, 16,023 (1.6%) were clinically diagnosed without laboratory confirmation. Regarding malaria cases distribution pattern from 2017 to 2021 by zones and Special districts in the former SNNPR (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2.
Malaria cases distribution pattern from 2017 to 2021 by zones and Special districts, SNNPR, Ethiopia, 2022
Based on the total number of confirmed and clinical cases over the five years, the highest malaria cases were reported in South Omo [227,129 (22%)], Gamo [199,143 (19%)], Wolaita [173,742 (17%)], Gofa [105,543 (10%)], and Hadiya [51,623 (5%)]. The average number of malaria cases over five years was 227,129 (296 per 1000 population) in South Omo, 199,143 (161 per 1000) in Gamo, and 173,742 (86 per 1000) in Wolaita, highlighting those zones at higher risks of malaria transmission compared to other zones and special districts in the region (Fig. 3).
Fig. 3.
Malaria case distribution by zones and special districts from 2017 to 2021 in the SNNPR, Ethiopia, 2022
However, on average, 206,942 malaria cases were reported annually, corresponding to an incidence rate of 12 cases per 1000 population, indicating that the region is at a moderate risk level. Additionally, cases distribution pattern by year, the number of confirmed and clinical cases rising from 214,095 (13 per 1000) in July 2021 to 289,276 (17 per 1000) in December 2021(Fig. 4).
Fig. 4.
Malaria cases distribution pattern by year across zone and Special districts in the SNNPR, Ethiopia, 2022
Confirmed malaria cases and species distribution across the region
Regarding species distribution among the confirmed cases, Plasmodium falciparum accounted for 679,787 (68%), while Plasmodium vivax represented 319,900 (32%) in the region (Fig. 5).
Fig. 5.
Malaria case distribution by species 2017–2021 across the Zones and special districts, SNNPR, Ethiopia, 2022
Plasmodium falciparum cases (68%) were reported over the five years. The highest malaria cases were recorded in Basketo (88.8%), Konso (84.3%), Derashe (82.3%), and South Omo (81%) compared to other zones in the region. In contrast, Plasmodium vivax cases (32%), the highest case counts, were observed in different zones in the region in Gurage (65.4%), Silte (52.2%), Halaba (51.9%), and Yem special district (48.7%) (Fig. 6).
Fig. 6.
Malaria cases by species 2017–2021 across Zones and special districts, SNNPR, Ethiopia, 2022
Trends of malaria cases by year and epidemiological (EPI) week
Within the study period, the distribution of malaria cases showed seasonal and temporal variation across EPI weeks. Peaks in malaria cases were consistently observed during EPI week 19 in both 2019 and 2020, with the overall highest case counts occurring between EPI weeks 26–36 across the study period years (Fig. 7).
Fig. 7.
Trends of malaria cases by year and epidemiological weeks versus threshold SNNPR, Ethiopia, 2022
In contrast, the lowest number of cases was reported during the early months of 2017 and 2018, particularly in January (Fig. 8). Across the five years, EPI weeks 19, 25, 31, 38, and 41–50 recorded the highest malaria case burdens (Fig. 7). Monthly and yearly trends in malaria transmission patterns are illustrated (Fig. 8), highlighting the seasonal nature of malaria incidence in the region.
Fig. 8.
Malaria case trends by month and year and month from 2017 to 2021 across Zones and special districts, SNNPR, Ethiopia, 2022
Malaria morbidity and mortality
Confirmed and clinical malaria cases that received outpatient and inpatient care during the study period were 1,015,710 (16.1%) in the former SNNPR. Among the zones in the region, Wolaita reported the highest average annual number of inpatient cases with 858 (42 per 100,000), followed by South Omo with 282 (36 per 100,000) and Gamo with 171 admissions (11 per 100,000 population), respectively. Over the five years, there were 35 recorded malaria-related deaths. The highest case fatality rates (CFR) were observed in Gofa (7 deaths; 6 per 100,000), Wolaita (11 deaths; 6 per 100,000), and South Omo (11 deaths; 5 per 100,000), reflecting both the disease burden and severity in these zones compared to others in the region (Fig. 9). Overall, the malaria-related mortality rate declined from 2018 to 2020 but showed a slight increase in 2021, with two additional deaths reported (Fig. 8).
Fig. 9.

Malaria case fatality rates from 2017 to 2021 across zones and special districts, SNNPR, Ethiopia, 2022
Spatial distribution and seasonal trends of plasmodium falciparum and vivax in the former SNNPR: high-burden zones exceeding elimination thresholds
The spatial distribution and transmission trends of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in the former SNNPR are illustrated (Fig. 5). The highest average monthly transmission of Plasmodium falciparum in the former SNNPR was observed in May [15,130 (13%)], followed by November [13,893 (14%)] and July [13,343 (12.8%)] malaria cases. Furthermore, Plasmodium vivax transmission peaked in May [7,622 (1.5%)], July [6,538 (1.1%)], and August [6,563 (1.3%)] cases (Fig. 8). The annual malaria incidence per 1,000 populations at risk was consistently highest in the Basketo, Gofa, Konso, and South Omo zones across consecutive years. Specifically in the region, the malaria incidence rates reached 149 in 2017, 108 in 2018, 184 in 2019, 156 in 2020, and 184 in 2021 per 1,000 population—this substantially exceeds the national malaria elimination targets, which aim to achieve zero indigenous cases in districts with an annual parasite incidence below 10 and to prevent reintroduction in districts reporting zero indigenous cases by 2025, as well as to reduce incidence to fewer than five cases per 1,000 population annually in all districts by 2030 [10, 14] (Fig. 10).
Fig. 10.
Incidence of malaria case/1,000 population from 2017 to 2021, SNNPR, Ethiopia, 2022
Malaria burden stratification by zones and special districts in the former SNNPR
The malaria burden strata of the former SNNPR- by zones and special districts for annual parasite incidence disclosed that moderate transmission (API 10–100 cases/1000) [Basketo, South Omo, Gofa, Konso, Gamo, Derashe, Ale, Wolaita, and Burji]; low transmission (API 1–10 cases/1,000) [Halaba, Amaro, Kambata, Silte, Hadya, Gedeo, and Gurage]; and very low/pre-elimination (API < 1case/1,000) [Yem special district], despite there was not high transmission level not identified during 2017–2021 across zonal and special district level) (Fig. 11).
Fig. 11.
Malaria burden stratification by zones and special districts in the former SNNPR, Ethiopia, 2022
Discussions
The findings from the former SNNPR indicate that out of 6,292,147 patients examined for malaria from 2017 to 2021, only 1,015,710 (16.1%) were confirmed and treated, despite 84% undergoing diagnostic testing via microscopy or RDTs. This corresponds toa test positivity rate of 16.1%, which is consistent with rates reported in malaria-endemic areas of Ethiopia, such as the Amhara Region (21.9%) [15], Arjo-Didessa Sugar Development Site (20%) [16], Guba (21%) [17], Welkait District (15–25%) [11], and the North Shewa Zone (11.03%) [18]. These similarities suggest a shared epidemiological pattern of malaria transmission and burden across diverse ecological and administrative contexts. The relatively moderate test positivity rate reinforces the need for sustained malaria control strategies, particularly in screening and case confirmation, to prevent underdiagnoses and ensure appropriate treatment. Additionally, aligning with the 10–20% positivity range reported in the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study [19], further validates the reliability of the surveillance data and reflects ongoing transmission despite intensified control efforts. These results underline the importance of enhancing diagnostic capacity and continuing targeted interventions to interrupt transmission in moderate-endemic regions like SNNPR.
Of the confirmed and treated cases, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax accounted for 98.4%. On average, 206,942 malaria cases were reported annually, corresponding to an incidence rate of 12 cases per 1,000 population, with a notable surge in the second half of 2021—from 214,095 cases (13/1,000) in July to 270,274 (16/1,000) in December. This trend is consistent with findings from Guba District [17], Raya Azebo [20], and Halaba districts of the former SNNPR [21], and aligns with national malaria indicator surveys [22]. Similarly, national data show a decline in incidence from 81 to 56 per 1,000 between 2000 and 2019, followed by a rise to 59 in 2020, likely linked to health system disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic [23].
Malaria cases increased from 133,820 in 2018 to 235,591 in 2019, declined temporarily in 2020 (214,095), then rose again to 270,274 in 2021. These fluctuations align with national trends and may reflect both the impact of COVID-19-related service disruptions and changes in malaria burden estimation methods [23].
Of the 1,015,710 confirmed malaria cases, Plasmodium falciparum accounted for 68% and Plasmodium vivax for 32%. Plasmodium falciparum was dominant in different zones across the region, such as Basketo, Konso, Derashe, and South Omo, while Plasmodium vivax burden was highest in Gurage, Silte, Halaba, and Yem special districts. These spatial variations are consistent with studies from [17], Raya Azebo [20], and Halaba [21], which also reported species dominance patterns influenced by ecological and climatic factors. The high annual incidence in South Omo (296/1,000), Gamo (171/1,000), and Wolaita (86/1,000) zones aligns with findings from the National Malaria Indicator Surveys [22] and reflects regional differences in transmission intensity and intervention coverage. Nationally, the proportion of malaria cases due to Plasmodium vivax declined from 8% (18.5 million cases) in 2000 to 2% (4.5 million) in 2020, likely reflecting improved control strategies and targeted treatment of P. vivax reservoirs [23].
In this study, malaria case peaks occurred outside the nationally expected peak season (typically September to December in Ethiopia) and instead were seen around EPI weeks 19 and 26–36 (i.e., March to early September). This disparity could be attributable to ecological and climatic differences within the former SNNPR, notably in lowland areas like the South Omo and Gamo zones, where early rainfall and ideal mosquito breeding conditions can lead to earlier malaria transmission. Additionally, local agricultural practices and water resource developments may also help to sustain transmission during unusual times. These results emphasize the significance of adjusting malaria control efforts to local epidemiological patterns rather than depending exclusively on national trends.
Malaria incidence per 1,000 population was highest in Basketo, Gofa, Konso, and South Omo, consistent with previous studies identifying those zones as persistent transmission hotspots in the former SNNPR [23, 24]. Despite overall morbidity reduction, Plasmodium falciparum remained dominant (68%), contributing to severe outcomes. Inpatient admissions (0.86%) and deaths (35 cases) were concentrated in high-burden zones—Wolaita, South Omo, and Gofa—where elevated CFRs likely reflect both higher transmission intensity and limited access to timely care.
The regional malaria mortality declined from 2018 to 2020 but rose again in 2021, mirroring global trends. Worldwide, malaria deaths fell from 896,000 in 2000 to 558,000 in 2019, then increased to 627,000 in 2020—mainly due to COVID-19-related service disruptions, which accounted for an estimated 47,000 additional deaths [23]. Although the global mortality rate dropped from 30 to 13 per 100,000 at-risk populations between 2000 and 2019, it rebounded to 15 in 2020. Children under five remain the most affected, despite a declining share of malaria deaths from 87% in 2000 to 77% in 2020 [25, 26]. Globally, 29 countries accounted for 96% of malaria deaths in 2020, of which Nigeria (27%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (12%), Uganda (5%), Mozambique (4%), Angola (3%), and Burkina Faso (3%) were responsible for more than half of these fatalities [23].
Malaria remains a significant public health concern in the former SNNPR, with Plasmodium falciparum as the dominant species and fluctuating trends influenced by service disruptions and diagnostic practices. Despite notable reductions in morbidity and mortality, periodic surges and regional disparities highlight the need for sustained interventions, targeted control strategies, and resilient health systems—especially in high-burden zones—to reduce transmission and prevent future outbreaks [23, 24].
This study revealed that zones and special districts in the former SNNPR were moderate transmission, low transmission, and very low/pre-elimination stage according to malaria burden strata. The absence of significant transmission (API > 100/1,000) and the observed zonal heterogeneity in malaria burden-ranging from moderate to very low/pre-elimination levels-can be explained by a number of interconnected factors. These include expanding malaria control treatments such as the widespread use of insecticide-treated nets, improving case detection and treatment through health extension programs, and indoor residual sprays in the regions. Furthermore, geographical and ecological diversity across the region is likely to influence transmission intensity; zones such as South Omo and Gamo with more favorable climatic and environmental conditions for vector breeding may sustain moderate transmission, whereas highland or less endemic zones such as Yem exhibit very low transmission.
The current study has merits because of the use of long-term data, regional-level insight, programmatically applicable findings, support for policy evaluation, use of routine surveillance data, and cost-effectiveness and feasibility. Despite this, limited data completeness and consistency: Because the surveillance data were originally collected for routine monitoring rather than research purposes, there may be inconsistencies in data quality, underreporting, missing variables, or changes in reporting procedures over time. These factors may impact the accuracy, validity, and generalizability of the study findings.
Conclusions
This retrospective research shows that malaria continues to be a significant public health burden in the former SNNPR, with over one million confirmed and clinical cases. The zones with the greatest case counts were South Omo, Gamo, and Wolaita. Plasmodium falciparum caused the bulk of infections (68%), with Plasmodium vivax contributing 32%. Seasonal and regional trends revealed continuous peaks during specific EPI weeks and months, much exceeding national malaria elimination standards. Although malaria-related mortality remained relatively low, the observed hospital admissions and deaths emphasize locations with substantial disease burden. Despite a general decline in mortality, a rebound in 2021 highlights the necessity for ongoing attention. The findings highlight the need for spatially focused interventions, better surveillance, and alignment with the national malaria elimination strategy.
To reduce malaria prevalence below national thresholds, targeted interventions would be intensified in high-burden zones in the region. Improving district-level surveillance systems to ensure timely identification and response, especially during seasonal peaks. Improve vector control measures, particularly in remote and difficult-to-access locations. Encourage accurate species diagnosis to guide treatment and improve case management for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Engage private health facilities in surveillance reporting to ensure data completeness. Ensure a steady supply of antimalarial medications and skilled workers in hotspots to prevent case fatalities. Climate and ecological data should be used in risk mapping to help forecast and prevent seasonal spikes.
Acknowledgements
We extend our sincere gratitude to the former SNNPR Health Bureau public health institute for its full support throughout the study. Our thanks go to the Zonal Health Department, District Health Offices, and individual participants for their valuable contributions. We are especially grateful to the data collectors for their invaluable assistance during the data collection process.
Abbreviations
- CFR
Case fatality rates
- EPI
Epidemiological weeks
- PHEM
Public Health Emergency Management
- RDT
Rapid diagnostic tests
- SNNPR
Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region
Authors’ contributions
DDD participated in conceptualization, investigation, software, methodology, validation, visualization, and drafting the initial manuscript. TSA was responsible for data curation, methodology, and both drafting and reviewing the manuscript. SG and WD contributed to conceptualization, formal analysis, investigation, methodology, validation, and visualization, as well as drafting and reviewing the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Funding
Not applicable.
Data availability
The manuscript contains all pertinent information. Furthermore, data will be made available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author, Tadele Shiwito Ango, shiwitot2350@gmail.com.
Declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
The study was conducted after ethical clearance was approved with reference number PREV/122/22 from the Institutional Review Board of the School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, and submitted to the former SNNPR Health Bureau Public Health Institute. In addition, permission was obtained from the responsible bodies, including the zonal health department and the woredas health office, via an official letter from the regional health bureau. Furthermore, both oral and written informed consent were sought from the concerned bodies. The overall information obtained from the study participant and their privacy were kept strictly confidential using codes. All methods utilized in this study were performed under relevant guidelines and regulations [WHA Declaration of Helsinki-2013]. In this study, no human tissue was collected and not used as one of the study materials.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Footnotes
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
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Associated Data
This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.
Data Availability Statement
The manuscript contains all pertinent information. Furthermore, data will be made available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author, Tadele Shiwito Ango, shiwitot2350@gmail.com.










