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[Preprint]. 2025 Nov 6:2025.11.03.686383. [Version 1] doi: 10.1101/2025.11.03.686383

Spatial Conformation of Pancreatic Cancer Is Associated with Disease Recurrence after Curative-Intent Total Neoadjuvant Therapy

Luis H Cisneros, Merih D Toruner, Zafar Siddiqui, Andrea V Maraone, Miranda Lin, Alex Xiao, Cornelius Thiels, Mark J Truty, Ben George, Khalid Jazieh, Rob McWilliams, Carlo C Maley, Chris Hartley, Rofyda Elhalaby, Paul Dizona, Qian Shi, Martin E Fernandez-Zapico, Ryan M Carr
PMCID: PMC12637619  PMID: 41279961

Abstract

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) frequently recurs after total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) and curative-intent resection. Traditional histopathologic response assessments demonstrate that major pathologic response (<5-10% viable residual cancer) is associated with favorable outcomes. However, most TNT cases achieve only a minor response. We investigated whether the spatial organization of residual PDAC encodes clinically meaningful biology beyond residual tumor burden. In a retrospective cohort of 203 resected PDAC patients, all with minor pathologic response, H&E whole-slide images were segmented into cancer and stroma to subsequently quantify spatial composition (e.g., patch size/density, edge density) and configuration (e.g., patch complexity/compactness, spatial intermixing) to model treatment-resistant tumor architecture. Non-response was associated with a more fragmented interface-rich ecology, higher edge density and diversity, and reduced homotypic aggregation, independent of conventional clinicopathologic features. This demonstrates a link between emergent tissue architecture of treated PDAC and therapeutic resistance. Further, two multivariable, spatial risk models were independently associated with disease-free survival (DFS): (1) cancer mean shape index and stromal shape-index variability (high-risk median DFS 7.23 vs 11.57 months; adjusted HR 1.75, p=0.007) and (2) mean stromal area with edge density (high– vs low-risk adjusted HR 1.94, p=0.006), outperforming traditional treatment response assessments. Quantifying residual cancer–stroma topology thus yields independent, prognostic signals in post-TNT PDAC and motivates prospective, spatially informed adjuvant strategies and mechanistic studies of edge habitats and mixing as therapeutic vulnerabilities.

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