Croatia's brain drain

Editor—The migration of medical professionals from developing countries has become a global problem.¹ Although the temporary migration of doctors for training purposes benefits the country doctors emigrate from through upgrading skills, permanent migration represents a net transfer of human capital from the emigrating country.² New member states of the European Union have almost systematically experienced the alarming predictions of a brain drain after joining the union.³ Croatia may face a similar future when it joins the EU.

We surveyed 204 final year medical students from the Medical School, University of Zagreb, Croatia (response rate 85%), and analysed the results with logistic regression. Eighty four students were considering emigrating, mostly to the EU (57 respondents), especially Slovenia (22). Comparison of the results of the same survey performed a year before indicated an increase in the percentage of students considering emigration, from 31% to 41%, and confirmed Slovenia as the most common target country.⁴ The logistic regression results indicate that better ranked (odds ratio 0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.94), younger medical students (odds ratio 2.16, 1.10 to 4.24), and those interested in scientific work (odds ratio 2.16, 1.10 to 4.24) considered emigrating from Croatia.

A serious shortage of doctors in Croatia is reported.⁵ According to the new legislative scheme, a shortfall of 398 consultants in internal medicine and 340 consultants in surgery is predicted by 2007. Croatia thus faces substantial problems in healthcare provision.