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Journal of Applied Statistics logoLink to Journal of Applied Statistics
. 2025 Jun 18;53(3):510–519. doi: 10.1080/02664763.2025.2520339

Nonparametric tolerance intervals controlling percentages in both tails and simultaneous testing of quantiles

Gboyega Adepoju 1, K Krishnamoorthy 1,CONTACT
PMCID: PMC12954813  PMID: 41783278

Abstract

The problem of constructing nonparametric equal-tailed tolerance intervals is considered. A method for finding minimum sample size required so that the rth order statistic and the largest rth order statistic form a p content– (1−α) coverage equal-tailed tolerance interval is proposed. A simultaneous test for quantiles is also provided. Minimum sample sizes that are required to construct equal-tailed TIs and those to carry out hypothesis tests at a given nominal level are presented. The methods are illustrated using data collected from a new secure messaging system.

Keywords: Content level, coverage probability, equivalency of devices, order statistics, sampling inspection

1. Introduction

A tolerance interval (TI) is a statistical interval based on a random sample that would include a specified percentage of the population with high confidence. For example, a statistical interval that includes at least a proportion p of the sampled population with confidence 1−α is usually called p-content– (1−α) coverage two-sided TI or simply (p,1−α) two-sided TI. Owen (1964) has introduced another two-sided TI with some constraints that have applications in sampling inspection plans. This TI controls the percentages of population in both tails, and is commonly referred to as the “equal-tailed” TI. Formally, the equal-tailed TI is constructed so that not only it captures at least proportion p of the population, but also at most 100 (1−p)/2 percentage of the population lies in the left tail and at most 100 (1−p)/2 percentage of the population lies in the right tail. Both two-sided TIs and equal-tailed TIs are available for most of the commonly used continuous populations such as the normal, exponential, Weibull and gamma. See the book by Krishnamoorthy and Mathew [6] and Hoang–Nguyen–Thuy and Krishnamoorthy [3].

Construction of tolerance intervals for parametric continuous distributions highly depends on the model assumption. Tolerance intervals that are appropriate for any continuous distribution can be constructed using a nonparametric approach. In general, if a sample does not fit a parametric model, then one may seek nonparametric statistical intervals for intended applications. For a given (p,1−α,n), a nonparametric tolerance interval that satisfies specified content-coverage requirement may not exist. Let X=(X1,…,Xn) be a random sample from a continuous distribution FX(x), and let X(1)<⋯<X(n) be the order statistics for the sample. A nonparametric tolerance interval is formed by a pair of order statistics that are determined by the content and coverage requirements. A (p,1−α) nonparametric TI of the form (X(r),X(s)) is constructed so that

PX(r),X(s){FX(X(s))−FX(X(r))≥p}=1−α,

or equivalently,

PX(r),X(s){PX(X(r)≤X≤X(s) | X(r),X(s))≥p}=1−α. (1)

For simplicity and convenience, s is set as n−r + 1, so that (X(r),X(n−r+1)) is a (p,1−α) tolerance interval (see Wilks [8]). Note that the interval is formed by the rth smallest order statistic and the rth largest order statistic so that it would include at least a proportion p of the population with confidence 1−α. For a given (p,1−α,r), minimum sample size needed to compute TI of the form (X(r),X(n−r+1)) can be obtained using some standard software packages, R-package ‘tolerance’ by Young [10] and the PC calculator that accompanies the book by Krishnamoorthy [4]. This nonparametric TIs are further improved by Young and Mathew [11]. For multivariate nonparametric tolerance region, refer to Young and Mathew [12] and for construction of tolerance intervals for nonparametric regression refer to Guo and Young [2].

The tolerance interval determined by (1) includes at least 100p percentage of the population with confidence 1−α. This means that at most 100(1−p)% of the population lies outside the interval. However, it is not clear what percentage of population lies in the left tail and what percentage lies in the right-tail. Owen [7] has noted that there are practical situations where one wants to assess the percentages of data fall in both tails. He has proposed a sampling plan which is designed to accept a lot if the samples provide enough evidence to indicate that at most 100 (1−p2)% of items' characteristics falls below a lower specification limit Ll and at most 100 (1−p2)% of items' characteristics falls above an upper specification limit Lu. Assuming normality, Owen (1964) has proposed an exact test. Also, see Chapter 2 of Krishnamoorthy and Mathew [6].

In this article, we provide nonparametric methods of finding equal-tailed TIs and simultaneous testing of lower and upper quantiles of a continuous population. In the following section, we describe a method of determining TIs of the form (X(r),X(n−r+1)) so that at most 100 (1−p2)% of the population less than X(r) and at most 100 (1−p2)% of the population greater than X(n−r+1) with confidence 1−α. Notice that (X(r),X(n−r+1)) includes at least 100p% of the center of the population. In Section 3, we address the problem of simultaneous testing on lower 1−p2 and upper 1−p2 quantiles. This simultaneous test also involves determining a pair of statistics so that the type I error rates are within the nominal significance level. In Section 4, we provide an example to illustrate the methods. Some concluding remarks are given in Section 5.

2. Equal-tailed tolerance intervals

Let X(1)<⋯<X(n) be order statistics for a sample of size n from a continuous population with a distribution function FX(x). We like to construct a (p,1−α) equal-tailed TI of the form (X(r),X(s)), 1≤r<s≤n, so that

PX(r),X(s)(P(X<X(r))<1−p2andP(X>X(s))<1−p2 | X(r),X(s))=1−α.

For convenience, write pt=12(1−p). The above probability can be expressed as

PX(r),X(s)(FX(X(r))<ptand1−FX(X(s))<pt | X(r),X(s))=1−α. (2)

It is well-known that F(X(k)) is distributed like U(k), where U(k) is the kth order statistic for a sample of size n from a uniform (0,1) distribution. Using this result, we can write (2) as

PU(r),U(s)(U(r)<ptandU(s)>1−pt)=1−α.

The joint probability density function of U(r) and U(s), 1≤r<s≤n, is given by

fU(r),U(s)(x,y)=n!(r−1)!(s−r−1)!(n−s)!xr−1(y−x)s−r−1(1−y)n−s,0<x<y<1.

For example, see Section 2.6 of Gibbons and Chakraborty [1]. Letting cr,s;n=n!(r−1)!(s−r−1)!(n−s)!, the probability in (2) can be written as

c(r,s;n)∫1−pt1∫0ptxr−1(y−x)s−r−1(1−y)n−s dx dy. (3)

Let b(x | a,b) and B(x | a,b) denote the beta density function and the distribution function with shape parameters a>0 and b>0. As shown in the appendix, letting s = n−r + 1, the above integral can be simplified and expressed as

CP(n | r,p)=∫1−pt1b(y | n−r+1,r)B(pt/y | r,n−2r+1) dy. (4)

For a given (r,p,1−α), the minimum sample size n must be determined so that

CP(n | r,p)≥1−α, (5)

and (X(r),X(n−r+1)) is a (p,1−α) equal-tailed TI.

For a given (r,p,1−α), we computed the minimum sample size that satisfies the probability requirement (5) and reported them in Table 1 for values of r=1(1)20, p = 0.80, 0.90, 0.95 and 0.99 and 1−α=0.90,0.95 and 0.99. As an example, the minimum sample size required so that the 4th smallest order statistic and the 4th largest order statistic form a 0.90 content–0.95 coverage equal-tailed TI is 173. That is, if we have a sample of size 173, then (X(4),X(170)) is a (0.90, 0.95) equal-tailed TI. Furthermore, at most 5% of the population lies below X(4) and at most 5% of the population exceeds X(170) with confidence 0.95. For any value of (p,1−α,r) not reported in Table 1, we can find the sample size n using the R function ssize.np.eq.TI(r, p, cl) given in the appendix.

Table 1.

Sample size required so that (X(r),X(n−r+1)) is a (p,γ) equal-tailed TI.

  1−α=0.90 1−α=0.95 1−α=0.99
r p = 0.80 0.90 0.95 0.99 0.80 0.90 0.95 0.99 0.8 0.90 0.95 0.99
1 29 58 118 593 35 72 146 734 51 104 210 1057
2 46 93 187 941 54 109 221 1110 72 146 294 1483
3 61 124 249 1251 70 142 286 1440 90 182 368 1851
4 75 153 307 1541 85 173 348 1748 106 216 435 2191
5 89 180 363 1820 100 202 406 2042 122 248 500 2514
6 103 207 417 2092 114 230 463 2327 137 279 562 2825
7 116 234 470 2357 127 258 519 2605 152 309 622 3127
8 129 260 522 2617 141 285 573 2877 167 338 681 3421
9 141 285 573 2874 154 311 626 3145 181 367 738 3710
10 154 310 623 3128 167 338 679 3409 195 395 795 3994
11 166 335 673 3379 180 364 731 3669 209 423 851 4274
12 179 360 723 3627 193 389 783 3927 222 450 906 4550
13 191 385 772 3874 205 415 834 4183 236 477 960 4823
14 203 409 821 4118 218 440 884 4437 249 504 1014 5093
15 215 433 870 4362 230 465 934 4688 262 531 1067 5360
16 227 457 918 4603 243 490 984 4938 275 557 1120 5626
17 239 481 966 4844 255 515 1034 5186 288 583 1173 5889
18 251 505 1014 5083 267 539 1083 5433 301 609 1225 6151
19 263 529 1061 5321 279 564 1132 5679 314 635 1277 6411
20 274 552 1109 5558 292 588 1181 5923 327 661 1328 6669

These nonparametric TIs are exact in the sense that the coverage probabilities are always greater than or equal to the nominal level. In general, nonparametric methods are known to be conservative in the sense that the coverage probabilities could be appreciably larger than the nominal level for some cases. To judge the degree of conservatism, we estimated the coverage probabilities of the TIs for some values of (p,1−α,r,n) given in Table 1. The coverage probabilities were estimated for a linear combination of two Weibull distributions (i) 0.3 Weibull(3, 2) + 0.7 Weibull(2,1) and a combination of two gamma distributions (ii) 0.4 gamma(3,1) + 0.6 gamma(1,2). Here, Weibull (c,b) denotes the Weibull distribution with the shape parameter c and the scale parameter b and gamma (a,b) denotes the gamma distribution with the shape parameter a and the scale parameter b. Monte Carlo estimates of the coverage probabilities are reported in Table 2. We see in this table that for each entry in the first column, the corresponding estimated coverage probability 1−α^ is very close to 1−α. Closeness of these probabilities indicates that in the nonparametric setup, these TIs are not conservative. However, they could be wider than those constructed using parametric models.

Table 2.

Coverage probabilities of equal-tailed TIs.

  (i) (ii)
(p,1−α,r,n) 1−α^ 1−α^
(.90, .90, 1, 58) .901 .900
(.90, .90, 3, 124) .903 .895
(.90, .95, 1, 72) .950 .951
(.80, .90, 8, 128) .897 .901
(.90, .99, 3, 182) .990 .990
(.90, .95, 12, 389) .952 .947

Note: (i) 0.3 Weibull(3,2) + .7 Weibull(2,1); (ii) 0.4 gamma(3,1) + 0.6 gamma(1,2)

3. Simultaneous hypothesis testing about population quantiles

Consider the acceptance sampling plan where a lot will be accepted if collected samples provide sufficient evidence to indicate that at most a proportion 1−p2 of items' characteristics are less than a lower specification limit Ll and at most a proportion 1−p2 of items' characteristics are greater than an upper specification limit Ul. If Qp denotes the pth quantile of the population, then a solution to the acceptance sampling plan can be obtained by testing if Ll<Q1−p2 and Q1+p2<Ul based on a sample. The hypotheses of interest here are

H0:Ll≥Q1−p2 or Q1+p2≥Ulvs.Ha:Ll<Q1−p2andQ1+p2<Ul. (6)

A nonparametric test for the above hypotheses is to be developed so that the type I error rate is within the nominal level α.

Remark 3.1

Assuming normality, Owen (1964) has proposed a test that rejects the null hypothesis at the level of significance α if Ll≤X¯−khS and X¯+khS≤Ul, where the critical value kh is to be determined so that P(X¯−khS≥Ll and X¯+khS≤Ul | H0)≤α. Krishnamoorthy and Mathew [5] considered the above hypothesis testing problem in an application of establishing equivalency of a sampling device to the OSHA standard.

A way to develop a nonparametric test for the hypotheses in (6) is to determine the minimum sample size that is required so that

PX(r),X(n−r+1)(P(X≤X(r))>pt and P(X≤X(n−r+1))<1−pt)≤α, (7)

where pt=(1−p)/2. Proceeding as in the earlier section, the above requirement can be written as

PU(r),U(n−r+1)(U(r)>pt and U(n−r+1)<1−pt)≤α,

where U(r) is the rth order statistic for a sample of size n. By considering the probability of the complimentary event, we see that the minimum sample size that satisfies the above requirement also satisfies

PU(r),U(n−r+1)(U(r)<pt or U(n−r+1)>1−pt)≥1−α. (8)

Using the De Morgan law and the result that U(r) has the beta (r,n−r+1) distribution, the above requirement can be expressed as

B(pt | r,n−r+1)+B¯(1−pt | n−r+1,r)−CP(n | r,p)≥1−α, (9)

where B(x | a,b) denotes the beta distribution function, B¯(x | a,b)=1−B(x | a,b) and CP(n | r,p) is given in (4).

We have computed sample sizes required to satisfy (9) for values of α=0.01,0.05,0.10, and p = 0.80, 0.90, 0.95, 0.99, and presented them in Table 3. As an example, suppose a lot will be accepted at the level of significance 0.05, if the specification limits Ll≤Q0.05 and Ul≥Q0.95. Referring to (α,p,r)=(0.05,0.90,1) in Table 3, we find n = 28. The lot will be accepted if Ll≤X(1) and X(28)≤Ul. For any value of (p,α,r) not reported in Table 1, we can find the sample size n using the R function ssize.np.quantile.test(r, p, alpha) in the appendix.

Table 3.

Sample size required so that P(Q1−p2≤X(r) and X(n−r+1)≤Q1+p2 | H0)=α.

  α=0.10 α=0.05 α=0.01
r p = 0.80 0.90 0.95 0.99 0.80 0.90 0.95 0.99 0.8 0.90 0.95 0.99
1 11 22 45 230 14 29 59 299 21 44 90 459
2 23 46 94 472 27 55 112 567 36 75 153 775
3 34 69 140 704 39 80 162 818 50 103 210 1061
4 45 92 185 930 51 104 210 1061 63 130 264 1333
5 56 114 229 1153 63 128 258 1298 76 156 316 1595
6 67 136 273 1374 74 151 304 1531 88 181 367 1851
7 78 157 317 1593 85 174 350 1761 101 206 417 2102
8 88 179 360 1811 96 196 395 1990 113 231 466 2349
9 99 201 404 2028 108 219 441 2216 125 255 515 2594
10 110 222 447 2243 119 241 485 2441 137 279 563 2836
11 120 243 490 2458 130 263 530 2665 148 303 611 3076
12 131 265 532 2672 141 285 574 2887 160 326 658 3314
13 141 286 575 2886 152 307 619 3109 172 350 705 3550
14 152 307 617 3099 163 329 663 3330 183 373 752 3785
15 163 328 660 3312 173 351 707 3550 195 396 799 4019
16 173 349 702 3524 184 373 750 3769 206 419 845 4252
17 184 371 744 3736 195 395 794 3988 218 442 891 4484
18 194 392 787 3947 206 416 838 4206 229 465 937 4714
19 204 413 829 4158 217 438 881 4424 240 488 983 4944
20 215 434 871 4369 227 460 924 4641 251 511 1029 5173

The nonparametric tests are exact. However, like in the preceding section, these tests could be too conservative in some cases. To judge the error rates of the tests, we estimated the type I error rates for some values of (p,α,r,n) given in Table 3. As in the preceding section, we used the same combination of two Weibull distributions, namely, (i) 0.3 Weibull(3, 2) + 0.7 Weibull(2,1) and the same combination of gamma distributions (ii) 0.4 gamma(3,1) + 0.6 gamma(1,2). Monte Carlo estimates of the error rates are given in Table 4. We note in this table that for each entry in the first column, the corresponding estimated error rates α^ is very close to α. Comparison of these values indicates that in the nonparametric setup, these tests are not conservative.

Table 4.

Type I error rates of the quantile tests.

  (i) (ii)
(p,α,r,n) α^ α^
(.90, .10, 1, 22) .098 .098
(.90, .10, 3, 69) .097 .099
(.90, .05, 1, 29) .048 .049
(.80, .10, 8, 88) .097 .102
(.90, .01, 3, 103) .011 .011
(.90, .05, 12, 285) .056 .051

Note: (i) 0.3 Weibull(3,2) + .7 Weibull(2,1); (ii) 0.4 gamma(3,1) + 0.6 gamma(1,2)

4. Example

This example and the data are taken from Wurscher et al. [9]. It is concerned of efficacy and security of a New Secure Messaging System (NSMS). The system can send messages with a desired level of security, but the amount of time between sending and receiving the message is not well understood for this system. It is desirable to send and receive messages within 20 seconds for the system to be useable in the field. To understand the distribution of the delivery times, a sample of n = 52 runs was selected and the delivery times were recorded. The data are given in Table 5 of Wurscher et al. [9], and they are reproduced here in Table 5. In order to assess the speed of the delivery of messages, Wurscher et al. [9] wanted to place an upper bound below which 90% of delivery times lies. These authors have noted that the histogram of the data is not symmetric indicating that normality is not tenable. They have used a (.90, .90) nonparametric upper tolerance limit as an upper bound. We also checked if the data fit other parametric models such as the lognormal, Weibull, two-parameter exponential and gamma, and found none of them fits the data.

Table 5.

Delivery Times (in seconds) for high load low file size messages.

5.126429 8.212724 9.106340 9.253784 10.423324
12.393966 12.609172 12.670580 12.972754 13.195848
13.204790 13.447015 13.603801 13.629823 13.735626
13.738818 13.827530 14.171431 14.184233 14.445580
14.912384 15.412042 15.435410 15.464379 15.777407
16.333406 16.359170 16.364353 16.420189 16.667285
16.967149 17.018127 17.118655 17.160076 17.164883
17.688404 17.768533 18.238697 18.257817 18.405642
18.580804 18.763560 19.348932 19.500355 19.745636
19.748467 19.881802 20.735652 20.819050 21.452909
21.660328 21.717389    

Using the R function ssize.np.eq.TI(r, p, cl) given in the appendix, we found that the required sample size of 52 so that (X(1),X(52))=(5.126429,21.452909) is a (.861, .95) equal-tailed TI. Noting that (1−.861)/2≈.07, we can say that at most 7% of the delivery times is less than 5.126429 seconds and at most 7% of the delivery times is greater than 21.717389 seconds with confidence 95%. Furthermore, using the R function ssize.np.eq.TI(2, .795, .95), we found n = 52. That is, (X(2),X(n−1))=(8.212724,21.660328) is a (.795, .95) equal-tailed TI. This means that at most 10% of the delivery times is less than 8.212724 seconds and at most 10% of the delivery times is greater than 21.660328 seconds.

Suppose we like to test H0:Ll≥Q.075 or Q.925≥Ul vs. Ha:Ll<Q.075 and Q.925<Ul, where Ll=8.5 and Ul=21.5 are specified values, at the level 0.05. Noting that p = 0.85, we find the required sample size n = 52 at α=0.052 and r = 3. This sample size is not available in Table 3. We computed it using the R function ssn.quantile.test(r, p, alpha) given in the appendix. Note that there are 52 observations in Table 5. Also, Ll=8.5≤9.106340=X(3) and X(50)=21.452909≤21.5, which provides evidence to support that at most 7.5% of the delivery times is less than 8.5 seconds and at most 7.5% of the delivery times is greater than 21.5 seconds. Furthermore, at least 85% of the delivery times falls in the interval (8.5,21.5).

5. Concluding remarks

We provided a nonparametric approach to compute an equal-tailed TI, which is also known as the TI controlling percentages in both tails or TI capturing center of the population. For a given (p,1−α), this equal-tailed TIs are expected to be wider than the corresponding two-sided nonparametric TIs (see Section 8.4 of Krishnamoorthy and Mathew [6]). Furthermore, an equal-tailed TI requires larger sample size than the one requires to compute the corresponding two-sided TI, because the former TI not only captures at least a specified proportion of the population, but also controls the percentages of the population lie in both tails. We also provided a nonparametric test for quantiles that can be used in an accepting sampling plan if the sample data do not fit any continuous parametric distribution. It should be noted that the nonparametric methods proposed here are applicable to find TIs for any continuous distribution. However, large samples are needed to find a TI with specified values of content level p and confidence level 1−α. For some values of (p,1−α), we can not compute nonparametric TI using our method. For example, to construct a (.90,.95) equal-tailed TI using the extreme order statistics, a sample of at least 72 observations is required (See Table 1). For any sample size smaller than 72, we can not find a (.90,.95) equal-tailed nonparametric TI using the proposed method.

To help practitioners of statistics, we provide R function ssize.np.eq.TI(r, p, alpha) to determine the sample size to compute an equal-tailed TI at a desired value of (r,p,1−α), and R function ssize.np.quantile.test(r, p, alpha) to determine the sample size for simultaneous testing of quantiles.

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to two reviewers and an associate editor for providing valuable comments and suggestions.

Appendices.

Appendix 1.

To simplify the integral

CP(r,s | n)=c(r,s;n)∫1−pt1∫0ptxr−1(y−x)s−r−1(1−y)n−s dx dy, (A1)

we first use the transformation u=x/y so that dx=y du and u:0→pt/y and write the above integral as

c(r,s;n)Beta(r,s−r)∫1−pt1ys−1(1−y)n−sB(pt/y | r,s−r) dy,

where Beta (a,b) is the usual beta function. Recognizing the beta kernel in the above integral, we can further simplify the above expression as

c(r,s;n)Beta(r,s−r)Beta(s,n−s+1)∫1−pt1b(y | s,n−s+1)B(pt/y | r,s−r) dy.

It can be readily verified that the constant terms on the left hand side of the integral simplifies to 1, and thus we get

CP(r,s | n)=∫1−pt1b(y | s,n−s+1)B(pt/y | r,s−r) dy. (A2)

Replacing s with n−r + 1, we get (4).

Appendix 2. R code

The following function computes the sample size n so that the interval (X(r),X(n−r+1)) is a (p, cl) equal-tailed TI. This function also returns the value of the actual coverage probability.

Appendix 2.

The following function computes the sample size n so that P(X(r)≥Q1−p2 and X(n−r+1)≤Q1+p2 | H0)=α. This function also returns the value of the attained level.

Appendix 2.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

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