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. 2026 Mar 2;16:9558. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-91353-w

Log-transformed variance from individual growth curves as a potential indicator of resilience in Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus

Muhammad Hunaina Fariduddin Aththar 1,2,✉, Samuel Bekele Mengistu 1,3,4, John AH Benzie 5,6, Hans Komen 1, John WM Bastiaansen 1
PMCID: PMC13009290  PMID: 41771910

Abstract

The ability of the animal to cope with environmental changes may be measured by log-transformed variance of deviations from expected weights (LnVar). We calculate LnVar by fitting the expected individual growth curve based on longitudinal weights (LnVarind) of Nile tilapia that were grown in either an aerated or a non-aerated freshwater pond. We estimated genetic parameters for LnVarind in Nile tilapia, the genetic correlation between LnVarind and growth and the genetic correlation for LnVarind between aerated and non-aerated pond. The heritability estimate for LnVarind (0.28) in the non-aerated pond was higher than in aerated pond (0.06). In the aerated pond, genetic correlations of LnVarind were − 0.44 ± 0.23 with daily growth coefficient (DGC) and − 0.45 ± 0.24 with harvest weight (W5). In the non-aerated pond, genetic correlations with DGC and W5 were − 0.68 ± 0.12 and − 0.52 ± 0.17, respectively. These values suggest that selection for fish with high growth rate will reduce LnVarind. However, genetic correlation of LnVarind between aerated and non-aerated pond was 0.50, suggesting that genetic improvement in the aerated environment will reduce LnVarind in the non-aerated environment. Therefore, incorporating records from relatives in non-aerated pond is beneficial for breeding programs targeting this environment.

Keywords: Variance of deviation of individual growth, Resilience, Nile tilapia, Heritability, Genetic improvement

Subject terms: Genetics, Animal breeding

Introduction

All animals, including fish, respond to environment disturbances with changes in behaviour and increased levels of stress hormones, such as cortisol and adrenalin1–3. Stress, either acute or chronic, affects feed intake, digestion, and ultimately growth4–6. However, the magnitude of these responses can vary significantly between individuals. This has led to the idea that individual deviations in growth over time could be used as an indicator for sensitivity to stressful conditions. Resilience is then defined as the ability of the animal to cope with environmental perturbations or to rapidly return to the condition it had before exposure to a disturbance7–10. Resilience is also seen as the ability to have consistent performance throughout time. Animals that show consistent performance are expected to be less affected by environmental perturbations than animals with less consistent production. Therefore, resilience indicators can be based on observed production variations even though the causes of these variations are unknown9,10. Resilience, expressed as the consistency in growth, can be measured from the deviations of actual weight from the expected weight in longitudinal measurements7,11. Several indicators to measure resilience from the deviation of actual weight have been proposed10. Of these, Inline graphic is the most promising based on its moderate heritability and ease of calculation from longitudinal records12–14.

Ideally, the reference used to calculate individual deviations would be as close as possible to the trajectory that a fish would have realized in the absence of disturbances. Therefore, it is important to estimate a reference or expected performance that is independent of environmental conditions. A previous study by Mengistu, et al.14 measured fish response to the disturbance using Inline graphic, calculated based on individual deviations from the mean weight of the fish cohort (Inline graphic). However, the changes in the mean weight of the fish cohort are also dependent on environmental conditions across various time points. Consequently, the response of individual fish to the disturbance, calculated based on the mean weight of the fish cohort, is relative to the response of the group or cohort to environmental changes. An alternative approach is to fit an expected growth curve from longitudinal measurement of fish weights. Growth curves can be fitted using weight and age in calendar days or temperature days15. Feeding levels also affect growth rate but animals in commercial production are typically fed to satiation.

In aquaculture and fisheries, nonlinear functions to model the age–weight relation have been intensively used to describe the growth curve of different aquatic species, including the Gompertz function, von Bertalanffy growth function and Schnute function15. The application of nonlinear models for fitting growth curves was also helpful in describing the growth in Nile tilapia16. Most of these growth models are based on the metabolic growth model, assuming that growth depends on weight exponent of 2/3[17, 18]. von Bertalanffy reasoned that the area of surfaces involved in anabolism is proportional to a linear dimension squared and that the weight related to catabolism is proportional to a linear dimension cubed17,18. The weight exponent of fish can be estimated from weight data using nonlinear regression. Mayer, et al.19 and Janssen, et al.20 estimated a weight exponent of ~ 2/3 in Seabream.

In this study, we apply non-linear regression to fit individual growth curves using longitudinal weight measurements of tilapia grown in Malaysia (described in detail in Mengistu, et al.14). Tilapia were grown in an aerated and non-aerated freshwater pond and weight was measured at 5-time points during the grow-out period. The individual growth curves were then used to calculate Inline graphic (Inline graphic). We hypothesize that Inline graphic measures growth resilience and therefore should be expressed more in the non-aerated environment due to high fluctuations in dissolved oxygen levels. The objectives of this study were: (1) to estimate genetic parameters of Inline graphicin Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), (2) to estimate the genetic correlation between Inline graphicand growth to explore the effects of selection for growth rate on Inline graphic and (3) to estimate the genetic correlation for Inline graphic between aerated and non-aerated pond.

Results

We estimated the weight exponent (Inline graphic) to be 1.77 for the fish in this experiment. The non-linear regression coefficient (Inline graphic) obtained from Eq. 1, that is equivalent to the daily growth coefficient (Inline graphic) per fish showed heterogeneous variances in expected weight between time points (Supplement 1.). The estimate of the expected weight, obtained using the slope of the linear regression at the Inline graphic scale and the deviations from straight-line regression on the Inline graphic scale (calculated with Eq. 3; Fig. 1) reduces the heterogeneous variances of the deviations compared to the deviations at the observed scale (calculated with Eq. 4; Fig. 2) and reduces the bias of deviations, particularly at the initial and final time point of measurement, compared to the deviations at the Inline graphic scale (calculated with Eq. 5; Fig. 3).

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

Mean and standard deviation of the weight deviation from expected individual weight (gram) with non-linear regression in Inline graphic scale at stocking (Inline graphic), three interval time points (Inline graphic: 55, 104 and 167 days) and at harvest (Inline graphic: 217 days) for all fish. The weight of each fish is plotted as a dot with the standard error limits shown by two short horizontal lines and the mean is located at the mid-point between these.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2

Mean and standard deviation of the observed weight deviation from expected individual weight (gram) with non-linear regression in observed Inline graphic scale at stocking (Inline graphic), three interval time points (Inline graphic: 55, 104 and 167 days) and at harvest (Inline graphic: 217 days) for all fish. The weight of each fish is plotted as a dot with the standard error limits shown by two short horizontal lines and the mean is located at the mid-point between these.

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3

Mean and standard deviation of the standardized weight deviation from expected individual weight (gram) with cubic root transformations at stocking (Inline graphic), three interval time points (Inline graphic: 55, 104 and 167 days) and at harvest (Inline graphic: 217 days) for all fish. The weight of each fish is plotted as a dot with the standard error limits shown by two short horizontal lines and the mean is located at the mid-point between these.

Descriptive statistics

Descriptive statistics for Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic and Inline graphic are shown in Table 1. There were no significant differences for the mean Inline graphic between aerated and non-aerated ponds. Mean Inline graphic, Inline graphic and Inline graphic in the aerated pond were significantly higher compared to non-aerated pond (P < 0.01). The coefficient of variation for Inline graphic in the non-aerated pond was higher compared to that for the aerated pond.

Table 1.

Descriptive statistics of harvest weight (Inline graphic), daily growth coefficient (Inline graphic) and log transformed variance from individual and cohort approach (Inline graphic, Inline graphic).

Aerated (N = 884) Non-aerated (N = 800)
mean (sd) min max CV mean (sd) min max CV
Inline graphic (gram)* 781.04 (265.58) 185.7 1588.6 0.34 579.87 (154.60) 135.5 1003.4 0.26
Inline graphic (g1/1.77 /day)* 0.16 (0.04) 0.05 0.26 0.25 0.13 (0.03) 0.05 0.20 0.23
Inline graphic* 1.33 (1.04) -3.33 3.47 0.78 1.03 (1.26) -3.90 3.53 1.22
Inline graphic -1.09 (0.98) -5.68 1.35 0.90 -1.23 (1.03) -5.27 2.18 0.83

N = number of observations (n) in the aerated and non-aerated ponds.

* t-tests indicated that mean values were significantly different between the aerated and non-aerated pond (P < 0.001).

Genetic and phenotypic parameters

Table 2 shows the estimated genetic parameters of Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic and Inline graphic from the aerated and non-aerated ponds. For Inline graphic and Inline graphic, the heritabilities were higher in the aerated pond than in the non-aerated pond, although the means were overlapped by the standard error limits of the other value. In the non-aerated pond, genetic variances for Inline graphic were more than four times higher than for Inline graphic, and heritability estimates two times higher. In the aerated pond the estimates were higher for Inline graphic than for Inline graphic. Heritability estimates for both Inline graphic and Inline graphic were higher in the non-aerated pond (0.28 and 0.12 respectively) compared to the aerated pond (0.06 and 0.10 respectively; Table 3).

Table 2.

Genetic variances (σ2A), phenotypic variances (σ2P), heritability (h2) of log transformed variance from cohort and individual approach (Inline graphic and Inline graphic), daily growth coefficient from five weight records Inline graphic) and harvest weight (Inline graphic) and their standard errors (se) in the aerated and non-aerated pond.

Trait Aerated Non-aerated
σ2A σ2P h2 ± se σ2A σ2P h2 ± se
Inline graphic 0.060 1.057 0.06 ± 0.03 0.440 1.563 0.28 ± 0.06
Inline graphic 0.091 0.907 0.10 ± 0.05 0.118 0.988 0.12 ± 0.05
Inline graphic (g1/1.77 /day) 0.25 × 10− 03 0.88 × 10− 03 0.29 ± 0.06 0.12 × 10− 03 0.48 × 10− 03 0.25 ± 0.07
Inline graphic (g) 8444.79 37,274 0.23 ± 0.06 2791.11 15,148 0.18 ± 0.06

Table 3.

Estimated genetic (above diagonal) and phenotypic (below diagonal) correlations of log transformed variance from individual and cohort approach (Inline graphic and Inline graphic), daily growth coefficient (Inline graphic) and harvest weight (Inline graphic) of tilapia in the aerated pond. Standard errors are in the brackets.

Inline graphic Inline graphic Inline graphic Inline graphic
Inline graphic X

0.46

(0.32)

-0.44

(0.23)

-0.45

(0.24)

Inline graphic

0.32

(0.03)

X

0.43

(0.24)

0.35

(0.26)

Inline graphic

-0.29

(0.03)

0.07

(0.04)

X

0.99

(0.00)

Inline graphic

-0.23

(0.03)

0.10

(0.04)

0.92

(0.01)

X

Genetic correlations

The genetic correlations between Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic and Inline graphicin the aerated pond are shown in Table 3. In the aerated pond, the genetic correlation between Inline graphic and Inline graphicwas moderate (0.46). We found moderate and positive genetic correlations between Inline graphic and both Inline graphic and Inline graphic in the aerated pond (0.43 and 0.35, respectively). In contrast, the genetic correlations between Inline graphic and Inline graphic, as well as between Inline graphic and Inline graphic were moderate and negative (-0.44 and − 0.45, respectively).

Table 4 shows the genetic correlations between Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic and Inline graphicin the non-aerated pond. In the non-aerated pond, the genetic correlation between Inline graphic and Inline graphicwas observed to be low (0.20). We estimated low genetic correlations between Inline graphic and both Inline graphic and Inline graphic in the non-aerated pond, (-0.06 and 0.01, respectively). The genetic correlations between Inline graphic and Inline graphic and those between Inline graphic and Inline graphic were moderate and negative (-0.68 and − 0.52, respectively).

Table 4.

Estimated genetic (above diagonal) and phenotypic (below diagonal) correlations of log transformed variance from individual and cohort approach (Inline graphic and Inline graphic), daily growth coefficient (Inline graphic) and harvest weight (Inline graphic) of tilapia in the non-aerated pond. Standard errors are in the brackets.

Inline graphic Inline graphic Inline graphic Inline graphic
Inline graphic X

0.20

(0.24)

-0.68

(0.12)

-0.52

(0.17)

Inline graphic

0.03

(0.04)

X

-0.06

(0.26)

0.01

(0.29)

Inline graphic

-0.42

(0.03)

-0.01

(0.04)

X

0.99

(0.00)

Inline graphic

-0.33

(0.03)

0.04

(0.04)

0.96

(0.00)

X

The genetic correlations between the aerated and non-aerated pond for Inline graphic and Inline graphic were estimated from the bivariate model. The genetic variation for Inline graphic in the non-aerated pond was higher than in the aerated pond whereas the genetic variance for Inline graphic in the non-aerated pond was comparable to the aerated pond (Table 2; Fig. 4). The genetic correlation between the aerated and non-aerated pond was lower for Inline graphic (0.50 ± 0.30) than for Inline graphic (0.80 ± 0.17, Mengistu et al., 2022). Taking into account the large standard errors, this result shows that Inline graphic is genetically different in both environments with a substantial degree of genotype by environment interaction (GxE).

Fig. 4.

Fig. 4

The individual estimated breeding values (EBV) for log transformed variance of deviations from (A) individual approach (Inline graphic) and (B) cohort approach (Inline graphic) between the aerated and non-aerated pond. The genetic correlations (Inline graphic) with standard error are included inside the plot.

Discussion

This study investigated the resilience indicator Inline graphic when calculated using the individual growth curve as the expected growth performance (Inline graphic). We aimed to improve the definition of Inline graphic to better capture the response of individual fish to environmental disturbances. In the next part, we discuss the comparison of resilience measured with Inline graphic and Inline graphic, the implications of including Inline graphic in tilapia breeding programs and the potential for further improvements to calculate Inline graphic as the indicator for resilience.

Definition of Inline graphic

We calculated Inline graphic based on deviations from expected individual weights fitted from weight observations at five time points. To obtain the expected individual weights, we estimated the weight exponent from nonlinear regression of observed weight on the five fish ages. The nonlinear growth model uses regression parameters to describe the shape of the generated curve15. Our estimated growth exponent (f) of 1.77 is comparable to the growth exponent from studies by Mayer, et al.19 and Janssen, et al.20 who reported weight exponents for gilthead seabream of 1.54 and 1.63, respectively. The change in fish size between time points typically leads to the heteroscedasticity. However, the calculation of variance of the deviation from straight-line regression on the Inline graphic scale removes heteroscedasticity. Furthermore, we fitted the weight data at the Inline graphic scale to both a linear model (Model 1) and a quadratic model (Model 2) and compared these two models to investigate if the use of a straight-line regression is reasonable. Although the estimated regression coefficients between Models 1 and 2 are significantly different (P < 0.05), the slope of the quadratic term in Model 2 is very small (-0.0002), suggesting that the quadratic term may not add much explanatory power to the model.

Comparison with Inline graphic

We found that the heritability estimate for Inline graphic was more than two times higher than for Inline graphic in the non-aerated pond (0.28 and 0.12, respectively). The heritability estimate of Inline graphic was also four times higher in the non-aerated pond, compared to the aerated pond (0.28 vs. 0.06), while the study by Mengistu, et al.14 showed no significant difference in the heritability for Inline graphic between non-aerated and aerated pond (0.12 ± 0.05 and 0.10 ± 0.05, respectively). These significance differences may indicate that Inline graphic more accurately captures the response of fish to environmental disturbances than Inline graphic. We measured resilience using Inline graphic based on the deviations of the observed weight from the expected weight. These deviations indicated the response of an individual to the environmental change. The expected weight as the baseline to calculate the deviation should be independent from the environmental change. Inline graphic was calculated based on the deviation from the mean weight of the fish cohort. Changes in the mean weight of the fish cohort depend on environmental conditions between time points that affect all fish in the cohort in the same manner. If the mean weight of the fish cohort changes due to the environmental effect, the response of individual fish is relative to these “group” changes. Therefore, the calculation of Inline graphic using the deviation from the mean weight of the fish cohort actually estimates the residual response, as the fish cohort response is already embedded within the mean weight of the fish cohort and is not shown in the deviation used to calculate Inline graphic.The expected individual growth curve to calculate Inline graphic is fitted from five individual weight records and therefore, produces a smoother curve compared to the mean cohort weight that exhibits more erratic behaviour between time points. The expected individual growth curve is independent of the change in environmental conditions and able to disentangle the response of fish cohort to the environmental change. Therefore, using the expected individual growth curve to calculate the deviation in calculation of Inline graphic can better capture the response of fish to environmental disturbances.

The implication of including Inline graphic in the tilapia breeding program

Inline graphic is moderately heritable in non-aerated pond, indicating the presence of additive genetic variance for resilience in the challenging environment. The heritability for Inline graphic in our study was higher than that reported for layer chicken (0.10 ± 0.0410) and pigs (0.11 ± 0.0321). Berghof, et al.13 calculated Inline graphic based on the deviation from the mean weight of the cohort in chicken. Gorssen, et al.21 used individual body weight records of pigs which were fitted with a Gompertz growth curve. The heritability estimates for Inline graphic are higher in non-aerated pond than the aerated pond. Non-aerated pond are typical for smallholder tilapia production systems14. We hypothesize that fish grown in non-aerated pond face significant challenges due to daily recurrent hypoxia, leading to increased expression of genetic variation in Inline graphic.

Growth remains the primary trait of interest in aquaculture production and breeding programs22,23. Understanding the genetic correlation between growth and resilience is essential for optimizing breeding programs for both growth and resilience. The expected correlation between growth and Inline graphic can be explained by resource allocation theory, where energy allocation to cope with environment disturbance may divert energy away from growth24,25, leading to decreased fish growth. However, in this study, the genetic correlations between Inline graphic and both Inline graphic and Inline graphic were found to be moderately negative in both aerated (-0.44) and non-aerated pond (-0.68) with high standard error. Here, a negative correlation is favourable for simultaneous improvement in Inline graphic and growth, while a positive correlation is unfavourable. Therefore, selecting for growth in the challenging environment can be expected to improve Inline graphic. Simultaneous selection for two traits often results in a negative correlation due to the action of pleiotropic genes, which affect both traits in the desired direction by selection and are rapidly brought toward fixation26. The Genetically Improved Farmed Tilapia (GIFT) strain tilapia used in this study had already undergone 17–18 generations selection for growth14. The observed favourable correlation between growth rate and Inline graphic suggests that long-term selection for growth has led to increase in Inline graphic.

We observed a substantial genotype by environment interaction (GxE) for Inline graphic, as indicated by the genetic correlation of 0.50 between the aerated and non-aerated pond. In non-aerated pond, a correlated response is defined as the multiplication of the genetic correlation between aerated and non-aerated pond, the ratio of genetic standard deviations between aerated and non-aerated pond, and the selection response in aerated pond. When the genetic correlation is less than one, the correlated response is smaller than the direct response, assuming that the heritabilities in the two environments are similar27. We used data from the experiment by Mengistu et al.28 to estimate the genetic correlation of Inline graphic between aerated and non-aerated ponds. This estimate was based on a genomic relationship matrix (GRM) derived from SNPs obtained through genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS). Mengistu et al.28 highlighted several limitations related to convergence problems: (1) limited sample size, (2) missingness and genotyping errors in GBS data, and (3) mass spawning and unbalanced family sizes. Therefore, refinements are needed, including the use of the complete dataset with approximately 1,000 animals per environment for estimating genotype-by-environment (GxE) interactions29,30, reducing missingness and genotyping errors in GBS data, genotyping the parents, and equalizing the number of individuals per family. However, Mengistu et al.28 also demonstrated that by clustering animals into groups based on high molecular co-ancestry, individuals with weak genomic relationships to all others could be identified.

Given the presence of GxE between the aerated and non-aerated pond for Inline graphic, it is obvious that the genetic improvement in the aerated selection environment will not be fully realized in the non-aerated production environment. If the breeding goal is to increase resilience in non-aerated production environments and selection must be conducted in an aerated nucleus, it is crucial to integrate information of own individual performance in the aerated environment with relative’s records in the non-aerated environment. This integration of information could enhance selection accuracy and the genetic gain for resilience. A study by Mulder and Bijma31 showed that incorporating performance data from the production environment in an index significantly increases genetic gain in that environment if GxE is present. However, caution should be taken due to the limitations of this study, which include the use of only one aerated and one non-aerated pond, and the possibility of a pond effect independent of aeration. Mengistu et al.28 showed that that aeration positively impacted harvest weight (26% higher in the aerated pond), improved tilapia survival rates, and resulted in a lower feed conversion ratio (FCR) in the aerated pond (1.73) compared to the non-aerated pond (2.31).

Inline graphic, as the indicator for resilience

Inline graphic measures the constancy of fish growth during the grow-out period. The constancy of fish growth can be an indicator for the fish’s response to the perturbations. As the available energy for growth at a specific moment is limited, coping with stress, including restoring homeostasis, may divert energy away from growth4,32,33 and potentially lead to growth fluctuations. Various mechanisms for coping with environment stress, such as reducing feed intake, decreasing food assimilation and increasing energy demand for maintenance processes, modify energy fluxes, all result in decreased energy proportion for growth4,5,33. A study by Folkedal, et al.34 showed that fish prioritize coping with the stressor through reduced feeding activity. Later, when the favourable conditions are restored, and food is available, fish compensate for the growth by temporarily accelerating somatic growth35. Compensatory growth is characterized by an elevated growth rate from enhanced feed intake and efficiency36. This feeding response of fish to environmental stressors, with decreasing feed intake and compensating for growth, may lead to growth fluctuation. We hypothesize that more resilient fish can maintain their feed intake during stress period and may grow more constantly and perhaps better survive environmental perturbations. However, there is limited understanding in this area and further study is needed. Selecting more resilient fish could lead to more constant growth, which plays a vital role in optimizing feeding strategies. In aquaculture practice, farmers predict feeding requirements using information on fish biomass based on the average weight of fish from periodic sampling to avoid under or overfeeding37,38. Accurately predicting growth is essential for estimating fish feeding requirement39. Optimal feeding strategies improve the feed conversion ratio (FCR), which holds considerable economic value40 and reduces environmental impact41. Gorssen, et al.21 recently showed a moderate and positive genetic and phenotypic correlation between Inline graphic and individual biological FCR in pigs (0.33). Further study is needed to estimate the genetic and phenotypic correlation between individual biological FCR and the constancy of growth measured with Inline graphic in tilapia. The assumption that selecting resilient fish could lead to more efficient growth opens the opportunity to harness the economic benefits from the genetic improvement of Inline graphic.

Further improvement to calculate Inline graphic as indicator for resilience

The effect of environmental stressors on fish metabolism is evident, but finding evidence for effects on growth is often complex5,33. Whole-animal changes such as growth represent the tertiary response of fish to perturbations, following hormonal changes and physiological adjustment, which are the primary and secondary physiological responses, respectively24. Stressor exposure may affect fish growth via various factors, including feed intake, food absorption and maintenance energy4,5,33. Inline graphic, as a resilience indicator, measures the constancy of fish growth in response to perturbations. Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying Inline graphic as a resilience indicator is crucial, as well as confirming its relationships with factors that may influence growth, such as feed intake and feed efficiency. Furthermore, improved resilience could lead to enhanced immunity and disease resistance, as these are categorized as a tertiary response to perturbations, similar to growth. Infectious diseases continue to pose a significant challenge affecting aquaculture productions23,42. In chickens, Berghof, et al.13 estimated a low genetic correlation between Inline graphic for growth and natural antibodies. However, there is limited understanding, and further research is needed to understand the relationships between Inline graphic and resilience indicators.

Less frequent records and longer intervals between measurements may be sufficient for traits like growth, which reacts more slowly to disturbances than traits measuring physiological response. Mengistu, et al.14 and our study found genetic variation in Inline graphic for growth with monthly weight measurements. Calculating Inline graphic for growth requires longitudinal records of individual fish weight. In the context of commercial breeding practices, acquiring longitudinal data has been challenging as it is expensive and requires manual handling, which itself can induce stress in fish43,44. Manual handling can cause physical disturbance and acute stress, affecting fish behaviour, welfare and growth45,46. Therefore, there is a need for low- or non-invasive tools to enable frequent measurements. Automated phenotyping offers a non-invasive solution, making longitudinal measurements per individual fish more effortless and potentially more accurate37,44. Automated phenotyping technology has been developed and applied in various aquaculture species, including salmon, catfish, tilapia and seabream47–51. The evolving technology of automated phenotyping in fish will significantly facilitate the application of Inline graphic as the resilience indicator in breeding programs for aquaculture species.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we improved the calculation of Inline graphic to better capture the response of individual fish to environmental disturbances in the fluctuating environment with Inline graphic. Inline graphic should be measured on Inline graphic scale to avoid heteroscedasticity. The exponent “f” should be estimated directly from the data. Inline graphic was found to be highly heritable in the more challenging environment and this can be exploited by selective breeding. The negative correlation between Inline graphic and growth rate implies that selection for growth may also improve Inline graphic. Whether selection for Inline graphic improves resilience and FCR remains to be tested. We recommend measuring Inline graphic through repeated weight records and based on the individual expected growth trajectories in fish breeding programs to simultaneously improve resilience and growth.

Materials and methods

The experiment was conducted in the Aquaculture Extension Centre, Department of Fisheries, Jitra, Kedah State, Malaysia. The source of the experimental fish is the Genetically Improved Farmed Tilapia (GIFT) Breeding Program that is run by WorldFish in Malaysia. The details of family production and grow-out of tilapia were described by Mengistu, et al.28. Below, we summarize family production, nursery, and grow-out of tilapia for this study.

Family production

We produced our experimental fish using the 16th generation of the GIFT strain as selected parents. We maintained the male and female breeders in separate 9 m2 hapas (3 m × 3 m) with a mesh size of 1 cm in an earthen pond for two weeks. Mating was done in four hapas (each 30 m2) suspended in a 500 m2 earthen pond. Eighteen males and 50 female breeders were stocked in each of the mating cages. In total, 72 males and 200 females were used. We conducted this mating process for 15 days. On the sixteenth day, the parents were removed, and the fry were kept in the same cages for a nursing period of 60 days.

Grow-out period

The fingerlings from each net cage were transferred into one of four aerated tanks after the 60 days nursing period and conditioned for three days before tagging. A random sample of fingerlings was anesthetized using clove oil and individually tagged using PIT (passive integrated transponder) tags. At tagging, a 1 cm2 fin clip sample was collected and PIT tag number and body weight were recorded. Equal numbers of individually tagged fingerlings from each nursery cage were randomly allocated to two earthen ponds. In total, 1570 fish were stocked in each pond with a stocking density of 3 fish/m2. The size of each of the pond was 511 m2 with a water depth of 1 to 1.2 m. To test the effect of oxygen availability on resilience in growth, we created two different environments: One of the ponds was aerated using a paddle wheel and blower to create a normoxic environment. The second pond was without aerators which resulted in natural diurnal dissolved oxygen (DO) fluctuations.

Trait measurements

Longitudinal measurement

We measured the weight of tilapia at five time-points: at stocking (Inline graphic: day 1), three interval time points (Inline graphic: 55, 104 and 167 days) and at harvest (Inline graphic: 217 days). Fish from the non-aerated and the aerated pond were always measured on two consecutive days.

The calculation of Inline graphic needs the expected performance from which the observed deviation can be calculated. In this study we calculated Inline graphic from the individual expected growth trajectories (Inline graphic). We compared Inline graphic to the calculation of Inline graphic as used by14 (hereafter cohort approach: Inline graphic). The methods differ in their approach to calculate the expected performance.

Calculation of Inline graphic

Inline graphic was calculated from the deviations of observed weights from the expected weights of the individual at timepoints Inline graphic to Inline graphic. To obtain the expected weights we fitted an exponential curve to the observed weights:

graphic file with name d33e2086.gif 1

 

where Inline graphic is the weight of fish i at age Inline graphic, a is the intercept, Inline graphic is the slope of the non-linear regression for fish i, Inline graphic is the fish age and Inline graphic is the overall weight exponent. The growth curve exponent Inline graphic was estimated for the fish in this experiment using the nls function in R52. The non-linear regression coefficient (Inline graphic) obtained from Eq. (1), is equivalent to the daily growth coefficient (Inline graphic) per fish. Then, we transformed the five observed weights per fish as Inline graphic to linearize the growth curve and we estimated Inline graphic per fish as the slope of the linear regression of Inline graphic on the age of the fish at the five time points t and calculated the expected weight of individual fish at times t:

graphic file with name d33e2165.gif 2

where Inline graphic is the expected weight of fish i at age Inline graphic, a is the intercept, Inline graphic is the daily growth coefficient as the slope of the non-linear regression for fish i, Inline graphic is the fish age. Per fish, we then calculated the deviations (Inline graphic) as:

graphic file with name d33e2201.gif 3

Where Inline graphic is the deviation of observed weight from expected weight of fish i at time point t, Inline graphic is the observed body weight of fish i at time point Inline graphic and Inline graphic is the expected body weight of fish i at time point Inline graphic. Next, for each fish, we calculated variance of the resulting five deviations (Var-dev) and transformed the Var-dev using the natural logarithm to obtain Inline graphic.

To investigate the effect of the heteroscedasticity for the deviations between time points, we compared the deviations that were calculated at Inline graphic scale in Eq. (3) with the deviations that were calculated at Inline graphic scale (observed) and at Inline graphic scale (Eqs. 4 and 5, respectively). The growth exponent 3 is commonly used for fitting growth curves of fish with rounded shapes that grow in volume15,53–55. The deviations (Inline graphic) from Inline graphic scale were calculated as:

graphic file with name d33e2293.gif 4

Then, the deviations (Inline graphic) from cubic scale were calculated as:

graphic file with name d33e2303.gif 5

Where Inline graphic is the observed body weight at Inline graphic and Inline graphic is the expected body weight at Inline graphic.

Calculation of Inline graphic

The expected performance for Inline graphic is defined as the mean weight of fish that belong to the same cohort14. Fish cohort is defined as the fish belonging to the same nursery hapa, sex and grow-out pond. The details calculation for Inline graphic were described by Mengistu, et al.14. We refer to Inline graphic based on expected weights from the cohort as Inline graphic.

Genetic parameter Estimation

Records from 1686 genotyped fish were available for genetic analyses. Genomic relationship matrix was computed based on 11,293 SNPs using the calc_grm program56 with the vanraden2 option, as described in Mengistu, et al.14. Phenotypic and genetic variances of Inline graphic, Inline graphic, Inline graphic and harvest weight (Inline graphic) were estimated using ASReml version 4.2 57 fitting a bivariate animal model with a genomic relationship matrix. Phenotypic (Inline graphic) and genetic (Inline graphic) correlations between the four traits within the aerated pond and within the non-aerated pond were estimated from bivariate linear models. We used the following animal model:

graphic file with name d33e2399.gif 6

where: Inline graphic is the vector of Inline graphic, Inline graphic Inline graphic and Inline graphic for the univariate models or two of those traits for the bivariate models; Inline graphic is overall mean; Inline graphic is fixed effect that accounts for nursery hapa effects (i = 1– 4); Inline graphic is the fixed effect of sex (j = male, female, unknown); Inline graphic is a covariate start-weight of the k-th individual (included only for estimation of harvest weight: Inline graphic); Inline graphic is random additive genetic effect of the k-th individual; Inline graphic is the random residual effect associated with an individual. We calculated the heritability as the ratio between additive genetic variance (Inline graphic) and phenotypic variance (Inline graphic), Inline graphic.

Genetic and residual correlations between traits in the same environment were obtained from bivariate analysis. The animal effects for bivariate model were distributed as N(0,G⊗C) with the additive genetic variance covariance matrix (C) is Inline graphic, and G is the genomic relationship matrix, Inline graphic and Inline graphic is the additive genetic variance of trait 1 and trait 2. Inline graphic is the additive genetic covariance between trait 1 and trait 2. The residuals were distributed as N(0, I⊗R) with residual variance-covariance matrix (R) is Inline graphic, where I is an identity matrix, Inline graphic (Inline graphic) is the residual variance of trait 1 (trait 2), and Inline graphic is the residual covariance between trait 1 and trait 2. Genetic and phenotypic correlations among traits were calculated as the covariance divided by the product of the standard deviations of the two traits.

We estimated the genetic correlation between the same traits measured on different (related) individuals in the aerated and non-aerated ponds with the bivariate model 1. The additive genetic variance-covariance matrix is the same as the bivariate model 1 where Inline graphic is the additive genetic variance for the traits in the aerated pond, Inline graphic is the additive genetic variance for the traits in the non-aerated pond and Inline graphic is the additive genetic correlation between aerated and non-aerated ponds.

The covariances of residuals between environments was set to zero, as a fish performed in only one environment. The residual variance-covariance matrix is Inline graphic where Inline graphic is the residual variance for the trait in the aerated pond and Inline graphic is the residual variance for the trait in the non-aerated pond.

Acknowledgements

This study was made possible through support provided by Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education, Ministry of Finance Indonesia (LPDP - RI) grant number 20195221414387, by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and by the CGIAR Research Program on Fish Agri-Food Systems (FISH) and by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Resilient Aquatic Food Systems for Healthy People and Planet by the CGIAR Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods (SAAF) Science Program. Both these programs are supported by contributors to the CGIAR Trust Fund. We acknowledge WorldFish GIFT breeding team, and the Aquaculture Extension Centre, Department of Fisheries Malaysia, Jitra, Kedah state for their technical support throughout the project.

Author contributions

MHFA: Writing—Original draft preparation, Data curation, Methodology, Formal analysis, Funding acquisitionSBM: Writing— Review & Editing, Designing the experiment, Data collectionJAHB: Writing— Review & Editing, Funding acquisition, ResourcesHK: Writing—Review & Editing, Methodology, Conceptualization, Supervision, Funding acquisitionJWMB: Writing—Review & Editing, Conceptualization, Methodology, Analysis, Supervision, Funding acquisition.

Data availability

The data that has been used is confidential and can be obtained by requesting WorldFish or Animal Breeding and Genomics, Wageningen University & Research (John W.M. Bastiaansen; email: john.bastiaansen@wur.nl).

Declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Footnotes

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

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Associated Data

This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

Data Availability Statement

The data that has been used is confidential and can be obtained by requesting WorldFish or Animal Breeding and Genomics, Wageningen University & Research (John W.M. Bastiaansen; email: john.bastiaansen@wur.nl).


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