Adolescent Migration Goals: An Application of the Aspirations-capabilities Framework

Abstract

Migration often requires significant monetary and physiological resources. Drawing on the aspirations-capabilities framework, we ask whether these resources are also important in the formation of adolescents’ own migration goals and aspirations. Access to resources could be a means for young people to form ambitions to migrate because they expect to have the capability to follow through on these goals. Resources could also allow youth to withstand pressures to migrate so that those with fewer resources face greater needs and are the most likely to form migration aspirations. Using data from the Family Migration and Early Life Outcomes (FAMELO) project, we assess three indicators of the capability to migrate – health, education, and household resources – and the permanent migration aspirations among adolescents in three distinct migration contexts: Jalisco, Mexico; Gaza province, Mozambique; and Chitwan Valley, Nepal. In general, those with greater capability to migrate have higher migration aspirations, but this varies across contexts. Higher educational aspirations and household wealth are less predictive of migration aspirations in Mozambique (i.e., the lowest resourced setting) whereas higher educational aspirations are positively associated with adolescents’ desire to permanently settle outside of their home communities – internationally or internally – in the Mexico and Nepal contexts. Self-rated health is not significantly associated with permanent migration aspirations in any of the study contexts. Household resources are most predictive of aspirations to move internationally rather than internally or remaining in the home community. Collectively, these results suggest important variations in the way migration becomes incorporated into adolescents’ life goals.

INTRODUCTION

Individuals undertake migration for a variety of reasons and in response to different pressures and opportunities. Voluntary migration, those moves that are not imposed by an outside force or made in response to sudden or acute stressors, occurs when individuals have both the desire and ability to make a move (Creighton, 2013; de Haas, 2021). Behaviors and goals set in adolescence and young adulthood set the stage for such moves. Yet the extant literature has not reached consensus about the relative importance of migration aspirations for understanding subsequent migration – or even how such desires are formed early in the life course (De Jong, 2000).

Migration, both internal and international, often requires significant monetary and physiological resources. Scholars have thus theorized that migrants self-select into migration (Borjas, 1987). That is, migrants tend to rate higher on health, education, and household resources – among other attributes – than their non-migrant peers (Feliciano, 2005b; Lu & Li, 2020). The role these resources play in the selection into migration varies by geographic context, type of migration, documentation status, and gender. For example, research has shown that migration policies in receiving countries influence the selection of immigrants, shaping their aggregate health and educational outcomes (Feliciano & Lanuza, 2017; J. Lee & Zhou, 2015). The association between aspirations, capabilities to realize those aspirations, and the factors that shape migration decisions remains less clear. Much of the extant research has focused on adults, their migration aspirations, migration outcomes, and retrospective accounts of their migration goals. However, to fully understand the process of migration from desire to completed outcome, researchers must extend the study of both migration goals and outcomes to also encompass earlier stages of the life course. Adolescence is key stage of the life course that sets the groundwork for future decision-making and is marked by higher levels of agency; it is also a time characterized by significant identity, emotional, social, and physiological development (Ansell, 2016; Curtis, 2015; Elder, 1998). In the current study, we leverage the aspirations-capabilities framework of migration to examine potential migration decisions within sending communities (de Haas, 2021) during adolescence.

Consistent with this framework, migration aspirations are a combination of both individuals’ desires to migrate and their perceived (or actual) capability to realize their migration aspirations – including aspiring to stay in place. We examine whether adolescents’ capabilities (measured as various individual- and household-level resources) are associated with migration aspirations. Given our focus on the aspirational component of migration, we include actual and potential capability. To do this, we draw on measures traditionally viewed as selection factors into migration behavior, as these could be important indicators of the capability to realize migration aspirations and may influence the establishment of migration goals in the first place. Conceptualized this way, the resources that facilitate migration also create the ability to envision migration.

Further, focusing on capability allows us to expand our understanding of migration behavior and migration goals for those on the lower ends of the health, education, and financial spectrums. For example, prior research finds rural residents in Mexico have higher migration aspirations than urban residents but are less likely to migrate than urban residents who have the desire to migrate (Creighton, 2013). That is, aspirations are necessary but not sufficient predictors of voluntary migration. Conversely, if adolescents are negatively self-selected, need rather than capability may shape their migration aspirations. In this case, those with the fewest resources will have the highest migration aspirations and those with more resources may perceive less need to migrate.

We examine how adolescents’ capabilities to migrate are associated with desires to move and whether these factors are similarly associated with migration aspirations among adolescents in different migration contexts. Using data from the Family Migration and Early Life Outcomes (FAMELO) project, we model the factors associated with permanent migration aspirations for adolescents ages 11–17 in three distinct migration contexts: Jalisco, Mexico; Gaza province, Mozambique; and Chitwan Valley, Nepal. We conceptualize capabilities (or needs, in the absence of capability) as educational aspirations, household wealth and primary caregiver (parental) education, and self-rated health. These measures mirror some of the most common factors used to examine selection into migration behavior: educational attainment or achievement, household wealth and/or other material resources, and health status. By analyzing data from multiple out-migration country contexts, our results highlight how local contexts may orient adolescent migration aspirations according to the resources directly available to them. Multinomial logistic regression models demonstrate that household wealth and educational aspirations are associated with adolescents’ desire to settle outside of their home communities in both Mexico and Nepal but not in the lowest resourced setting of Mozambique. Other individual- and household-level sociodemographic factors are also associated with permanent migration aspirations across contexts. Results highlight the importance of examining capability as a precursor to both migration aspirations and behavior, as well as the ways local contexts orient migration aspirations through the culture of migration in which young people are enmeshed.

BACKGROUND

Migration Aspirations and the Aspirations-Capabilities Framework

Migration goals are shaped by social influences across the life course. Although measured at a discrete point(s) in time, both constraints and opportunities influence whether individuals aspire to migrate – or whether they aspire to stay. That is, migration goals are a reflection of individuals’ social contexts, societal gender norms, migration networks, and forward-looking orientations (de Haas, 2021; De Jong, 2000). They are not static but dynamic. Even though intentions and aspirations are often used interchangeably, they reflect different concepts. Intentions are future-oriented plans that are typically more concrete and action-oriented (Hitlin & Kirkpatrick Johnson, 2015; Morgan, 2007), whereas aspirations focus more on desires and hopes. Expectations, in contrast, take into consideration not only goals and plans, but also the likelihood of achieving them (Morgan, 2007). Although measures of aspirations are not explicitly conceptualized or operationalized to account for constraints, in practice migration aspirations are a combination of both the desire and capability to move (or not move)¹. That is, aspirations are only translated into actionable migration behaviors if structural conditions (e.g., documentation status, financial resources, family ties, etc.) do not constrain the realization of migration aspirations (de Haas, 2021; Schewel, 2020).

Migration aspirations reflect variation in migration length, purpose, frequency, location, and type. For example, individuals with migration aspirations are much more likely to subsequently migrate – and this pattern holds across both international and internal (domestic) migration, and in various migration contexts (Creighton, 2013; Docquier et al., 2014; Migali & Scipioni, 2019; Tjaden et al., 2019). Migration aspirations, therefore, are more than just goals – they map onto actual behavior and likely shape decision-making in order to facilitate the desired migration. Our analyses focus on adolescents’ aspirations for permanent migration, or where they would like to live as adults.

Traditional formulations of migration behavior typically refer to opportunities and constraints in terms of so-called “push” and “pull” factors, where economic, social, and political conditions can both push migrants out of their home communities and pull them to specific communities (Fussell & Massey, 2004; E. S. Lee, 1966; Massey, 1990; Stark, 1991). However, according to the aspirations-capabilities framework of migration, actual migration decisions and behavior extend beyond these factors and instead must also consider individuals’ freedom to choose where they live (de Haas, 2021) – including the opportunity and desire to stay in their home communities. For example, Lubkemann (2008) argues that Mozambican wartime refugees encounter “involuntary immobility,” during which residents experience “displacement in place,” or an inability to leave their community despite aspiring to do so. In contrast, self-deportation, where migrants return to their home countries, despite their intrinsic preferences to stay given the ability to do so, amounts to “involuntary mobility” (Cleton & Chauvin, 2020; de Haas, 2021; Leerkes et al., 2017). Such findings have led to calls to move beyond the “mobility bias” and consider staying as a migration decision and aspiration (Schewel, 2020; Skeldon, 1990). That is, individuals can realize their migration aspirations by being free to choose where they live, whether that means staying or leaving one’s home. Moreover, the aspirations-capabilities framework of migration “distinguishes between the instrumental (means-to-an-end) and intrinsic (directly wellbeing-affecting) dimensions” of migration (de Haas, 2021, p. 1). In our examination of adolescents’ permanent migration aspirations, as measured through their desired place of residence during adulthood, we recognize that adolescents’ migration goals are not simply economic decisions but complex decisions that take into consideration multiple dimensions of social, personal, and economic well-being. Family structures, local laws, and cultural expectations may constrain or enable individuals’ abilities to realize their migration aspirations (Carling & Schewel, 2018; de Haas, 2021; Leerkes et al., 2017; Skeldon, 1990); this tension may be especially salient during adolescence, as youth negotiate ties to their families of origin as they approach adulthood. Central to providing a fuller picture of migration goals and behavior is the need to examine (preferences for) immobility (Schewel, 2015, 2020; Schewel & Fransen, 2020). Prior work on migration has focused on the resources needed to motivate and select individuals into migration. In this article, we draw upon the aspirations-capabilities framework of migration and extend this work to consider adolescents’ migration aspirations, including a preference to remain in their home community (staying) as a valid and measurable migration goal.

Adolescent goals are particularly important to study in the context of migration. Across the domains of work, family, and migration, research consistently finds a strong association between adolescent goals and future outcomes (Eccles et al., 2004; Schoon, 2001). Moreover, young people’s aspirations reflect societal ideals about which types of goals are not only feasible but also desirable (Hitlin & Kirkpatrick Johnson, 2015). This is readily evident in the case of migration. In high-migration contexts, a “culture of migration” often emerges, where migration is not only accepted but expected for young people, particularly men (Ali, 2007; Horváth, 2008; Kandel & Massey, 2002). Here, migration is a key marker of the transition to adulthood rather than a distraction or a deviation from it (Juárez et al., 2013; Juárez & Gayet, 2014; Zenteno et al., 2013). Despite variation in the socially expected timing of transitions into adulthood, children tend to acquire greater autonomy from parents and caregivers, develop increasing self-efficacy and create envisioned futures for adulthood as they age out of middle-childhood into adolescence (Fine et al., 2022; Gibbons & Poelker, 2019). This developmental period is further marked by cognitive change, identity formation, evolving peer and family relationships, and emerging autonomy (Arnett, 2000; Arnett & Taber, 1994; Curtis, 2015; Elder, 1998) – all of which can shape how migration is understood and desired (Ansell, 2016; Rodriguez, 2023). The timing, meaning, and duration of adolescence vary across cultural contexts, with some settings blending adolescent and adult roles more quickly than others (Khan, 2022; Robertson et al., 2018), making it essential to interpret migration aspirations though a culturally specific life course lens. Within this framework, capabilities are not simply background factors – they operate within developmental and cultural dynamics to shape whether migration is seen as possible, necessary, and/or desirable.

To identify the resources or capabilities that may be associated with the formation of migration or staying aspirations, we can draw some lessons from prior work on selection into migration behavior. For example, given the upfront costs of moving across borders, individuals and families with more resources than their neighbors are more likely to migrate internationally (Chort & de la Rupelle, 2016). In many places, migrants are more likely to originate from the middle or upper end of the education distribution in origin communities than from the lowest end of the distribution (Feliciano, 2005a, 2005b; Kaestner & Malamud, 2014; Orrenius & Zavodny, 2005), although this association itself varies by the availability of migration networks in origin destinations (McKenzie & Rapoport, 2010). Besides education and wealth, health status is also associated with the likelihood of migration. Given the difficulty of international travel and the demanding physical labor often required at the low-wage jobs that immigrants tend to occupy, health tends to be positively associated with migration, though here too the association varies across immigrant documentation status (Diaz et al., 2016; Lu, 2008; Lu & Li, 2020).

Although selection patterns are well documented for adults, far less is known about how capabilities influence migration aspirations during adolescence. This life stage often involves aligning emerging identities with the opportunities and constraints of a given context, so the same resource, such as household wealth or educational aspirations, can either catalyze migration or support immobility (Cook et al., 2024; Thompson et al., 2021). For example, Zenteno and colleagues (2013) find that migration-related social capital – such as family and community ties to current or former migrants – has a stronger influence on migration behaviors during adolescence than at later life stages, particularly for young men in high-migration contexts. This underscores how the same predictor can operate differently depending on an individual’s stage in the life course and points to the broader role of individual orientations in shaping migration goals. Adolescents with high aspirations in general may view migration as a route to achieving those aspirations regardless of their health, education, or resources. In China, for example, youth from rural origin households with internal or international migration experience do not have higher educational expectations than their counterparts in non-migrant households in rural areas. However, youth with higher educational expectations are also more likely to have both internal and international migration aspirations (Cebolla-Boado & Soysal, 2018). There may indeed be a selection process for optimistic and ambitious individuals who view migration positively, possibly as a route to upward mobility via school as well as labor. But resources may also enable adolescents to withstand pressures to migrate. When examining early life aspirations, those factors typically conceptualized as selecting migrants may be more correctly conceptualized as capabilities that adolescents can use to enact, delay, or avoid migration in ways that align both with their developmental stage and their cultural context.

Contextual Factors and Migration Aspirations

Frameworks and analyses of child and adolescent development are often confined to high income contexts where data are more available (Cook et al., 2024). As such, our understanding of how youth navigate their futures across a range of resourced settings is limited. The three settings included in this study (Jalisco, Mexico; Gaza province, Mozambique; and Chitwan Valley, Nepal) share status as migrant-sending communities and contextual qualities that are likely important for selecting youth into migration during the transition to adulthood. For example, each region is predominately rural and heavily engaged in agriculture – factors associated with migration to urban areas for work and/or education (Gautam & Andersen, 2016). However, as shown in Table 1, these settings are situated within distinct economic, social, and demographic contexts that are closely linked to migration dynamics. This section examines how contextual factors in each site may influence adolescents’ migration capabilities and aspirations by shaping both their desires to migrate (or stay) and the resources available to realize those aspirations.

Table 1.

Country statistics

Context/characteristics	Mexicoc	Mozambiqued	Nepale
Gross secondary school enrollmenta
Female	104%	37%	84%
Male	93%	39%	84%
Proportion of population ages 0–14b	24%	43%	29%
Proportion of population ages 10–19b	17%	24%	19%
Average household sizec, d, e (total)	3.7 persons	4.5 persons	4.2 persons
Rural	4.0 persons	4.4 persons	4.4 persons
Urban	3.6 persons	4.7 persons	4.1 persons
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births)f	11	48.7	23
Human Development Indexg	0.78	0.46	0.6
Total Fertility Rateb	1.8	4.5	2
Life expectancyb	76.7 years	57.6 years	69.2 years
Female	78	65	73
Male	72	59	69
Net migrationh (Per 1,000)	−0.8	−1.5	−4.3

Note.

^aWorld Bank 2023a, 2023b (Here, rates above 100% indicate enrollment of children who are older than the expected age for their educational level, whether because of grade repetition or late entry into schooling.)

^bUnited Nations Population Fund, World Population Dashboard, 2022

^cINEGI, 2016

^d INS, 2019

^e Ministry of Health, 2017

^f United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, 2022

^g United Nations Human Development Reports, 2023

^hUS Census International Programs, 2023.

Jalisco, Mexico:

Migration from Jalisco has historically been defined by international flows to the United States, underpinned by strong migration networks and cultural norms linking rural communities to U.S. destinations. Recent decades have seen a decline in international migration due to stricter border enforcement, diminished economic incentives in the U.S., and demographic shifts reducing the share of young people likely to migrate (Wassink & Massey, 2022). Despite these barriers, pathways for temporary work visas expanded, enabling a subset of migrants with financial and social resources to navigate formalized migration processes (Durand & Massey, 2019). At the same time, internal migration from rural areas to urban centers in Mexico increased, driven by disparities in educational access and economic opportunities (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (INEGI), 2020). Adolescents with high educational goals often view internal migration as a necessary step to access quality post-secondary education², which is predominantly located in urban areas (Balbuena Cruz et al., 2015; Zúñiga & Hamann, 2009). Household wealth plays an enabling role for these moves, as the costs associated with urban relocation are prohibitive for lower-income families. In the aspirations-capabilities framework, these resources provide the capabilities for desired moves by adolescents. In addition to economic and educational drivers, violence in rural sending communities acts as a significant catalyst for migration. Crime and gang activity may compel some adolescents to migrate for safety, contributing to a rise in unaccompanied minors moving to the U.S. These young migrants often cite violence, family reunification, and aspirations for better opportunities as motivating factors (Ataiants et al., 2018; Canizales, 2024; Thompson et al., 2021). Within the aspirations-capabilities framework, violence constrains the ability to stay in the local environment.

Gaza, Mozambique:

Gaza province has a long history of international labor migration, particularly to South Africa, where male migrants have traditionally worked in mines and other extractive industries. Over the past two decades, this migration has become less formalized, and destinations and labor opportunities have diversified (Agadjanian & Chae, 2023; de Vletter, 2007). Male labor migrants from Southern Mozambique continue to cross the South African border, but recent increases in urban labor opportunities have translated to a rise in rural-to-urban migration within Mozambique, particularly for women (Crush & Frayne, 2010). Since the end of Mozambique’s civil war in 1994, access to primary education has increased across rural areas of Mozambique, but secondary education remains relatively inaccessible (van der Berg et al., 2017). High costs for school supplies and long distances to schools create significant barriers for many families (Fox et al., 2012). In some cases, remittances from labor migrants help younger family members access education, linking a household’s migration history and wealth to adolescents’ migration behaviors (Yabiku & Agadjanian, 2017). Marriage-related migration is also a prominent feature of the Gaza province, particularly for young women who move to their spouse’s family home upon marriage (Instituto Nacional de Saúde (INS) & ICF, 2019). For young men, migration is also linked to family formation, as they are increasingly responsible for bridewealth payments, motivating them to seek wage labor in urban areas prior to marriage (Chae et al., 2021). Within the aspirations-capabilities framework, migration aspirations in Gaza are likely shaped by economic necessity and the uneven distribution of educational and economic opportunities.

Chitwan, Nepal.

Migration patterns in Nepal reflect the interplay between internal migration, often for education and work, and international migration, driven by labor demand in Gulf countries and Southeast Asia. Internal migration, particularly circular migration, is prevalent among youth seeking secondary education or employment opportunities in urban centers such as Kathmandu. Though educational opportunities have expanded in Chitwan throughout recent decades, many rural families depend on urban boarding schools for secondary education due to the limited availability of local institutions (Williams, 2009; Yabiku & Schlabach 2009). In contrast, international migration predominantly involves male labor migrants traveling long distances, facilitated by bilateral agreements with countries like Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (Bossavie & Denisova, 2018). Wealthier households are generally better positioned to support international migration, given the high upfront costs and long-term strategies involved. Within the aspirations-capabilities framework, these patterns highlight the interplay of educational goals and resource access in shaping migration aspirations.

Current Study

Although there are several studies that suggest migration aspirations are indeed predictive of migration (Creighton, 2013; Docquier et al., 2014; Migali & Scipioni, 2019; Tjaden et al., 2019), there have been fewer studies that can elucidate what factors shape young people’s migration goals in the first place. Past research has often focused on youth migration goals (see, for example, Horváth, 2008; Khan, 2022) without considering how goals may differ depending on concurrent individual goals for the future (e.g., education, work, marriage; Alcaraz, 2022; Aslany et al., 2021), and whether those goals can be fulfilled by not migrating (Aslany et al., 2021; de Haas, 2021; Schewel, 2020; Schewel & Fransen, 2020).

In the current study, we draw on unique data from three distinct migration settings in the Global South to assess the association between capabilities for migration and adolescent migration aspirations. Because we are examining migration aspirations formed early in the life course rather than migration behavior itself, it follows that we use measures of potential capability (e.g., educational aspirations) rather than more final measures of current observed capability (e.g., educational attainment). We use educational aspirations as a proxy for potential educational attainment and part of the package of resources and motivations that could spur migration aspirations. Similarly, we rely on self-rated health as a measure of the health status necessary to undertake a move. Finally, we use a household wealth and assets index and primary caregiver education as measures of available household financial resources, recognizing that there may be fluctuations (positive or negative) in the availability of these resources prior to actual migration. We use these measures to address our guiding research question: are adolescent migration aspirations higher among those with a greater perceived “capability” to migrate? We test two competing hypotheses:

H1: Youth capability for migration is positively associated with migration aspirations. Greater capability for migration (indicated via high educational aspirations, more household resources relative to their community, and high self-rated health) for migration will be positively associated with out-migration aspirations. In other words, those with the most resources will be the most likely to view migration as a feasible and desirable choice when compared to those with fewer resources. We refer to this as the capability hypothesis.

H2: Youth capability for migration is negatively associated with migration aspirations. In this case, even though resources have been shown to be positively associated with migration behaviors among adults, we expect that youth with low educational aspirations, fewer household resources relative to their community, and low-to-medium self-rated health are the most motivated to migrate. These youth view migration as a route to alleviate needs that are not met in their communities of origin. We refer to this as the need hypothesis.

The existing literature provides limited guidance on the way measures of capability might differentially shape migration aspirations across geographic contexts or whether we should expect youth across contexts to form their migration aspirations in similar ways. The data demands to address this question are high. Therefore, we draw on comparable data from three settings where educational and labor market opportunities are constrained, and labor out-migration is prevalent. This multisite approach is modeled on other projects successfully deployed to understand childhood poverty, with information provided by the children themselves, across low-income settings (e.g., Young Lives, Boyden, 2014) and distinct migration settings. We draw on this unique data to test hypotheses about the formation of migration aspirations. Our presentation of results focuses on within-site differences. We return to potential explanations for cross-site differences in the discussion to guide future comparative research (Carling & Schewel, 2018).

DATA AND METHODS

Data comes from the Family Migration and Early Life Outcomes (FAMELO) project. FAMELO is a multinational, household-based survey of children ages 5–17 and their families. Data was collected between 2017 through 2018 in Jalisco, Mexico; Gaza province, Mozambique, and Chitwan Valley, Nepal. FAMELO uses a two-stage sampling approach, with communities selected with probability proportional to size and individuals within communities; the sample includes both urban and rural communities, according to country-specific definitions of rural and urban areas.³ In each community, households were eligible for inclusion if at least one child ages 5 to17 and an adult primarily responsible for their care resided in the household. Within eligible households, one or two children were randomly selected to be surveyed; the number of children selected was randomly determined. Both the primary caregiver (usually the mother) and the child(ren) were interviewed. Household and caregiver characteristics come from the interviews with the adult caregiver. The study sites within individual countries were not selected to be representative of the overall nation. Rather, the countries, and the focal communities, were selected for the FAMELO project as key sites of social and economic change, as well as the prevalence of both internal and international migration (Alcaraz et al., 2022).

Sample

Although there is still scholarly discourse around the precise ages at which adolescence begins and ends (Eliason et al., 2015; Johnson et al., 2011), a general consensus places adolescence as the period from middle childhood (age 10) on the younger end through the early-to-mid-twenties on the older end (Sawyer et al., 2018). In the FAMELO project, children aged 11 to 17 were interviewed directly about their aspirations, as well as questions specific to their stage in the life course. These adolescents are the focus of our analyses.

Measures

A unique benefit of our data is that the interview protocols and questions are nearly identical across settings with responses tailored to each country. However, as evident below, variation in contexts and distributions of the variables at the core of our study requires us to operationalize concepts slightly differently across sites.

Permanent migration aspirations.

Our primary dependent variable is permanent migration aspirations; that is, where adolescents would like to settle permanently in adulthood. Adolescents were asked, “Where would you like to live when you grow up?” Possible responses are context specific. In Mexico, adolescents had the following five response options: here in this community/municipality, Guadalajara [the state capitol of Jalisco], somewhere else in Jalisco, somewhere else in Mexico, and in another country. In Mozambique, adolescents could choose between six options: here in this community, Xai-Xai [capital of Gaza province], somewhere else in Gaza, Maputo [Capital of Mozambique], somewhere else in Mozambique, and in another country. In Nepal, adolescents had five response options: here in this community, somewhere else in Chitwan [the major District for the area of study], Kathmandu [capital of Nepal], somewhere else in Nepal, and in another country.

After examining the distributions of each of these variables, as well as the different mechanisms that underly migration in each of these contexts, we created collapsed permanent migration aspirations variables for each country. Each variable consists of three new categories. In Mexico and Nepal, the recoded variables now include the following options: staying in home community, internal (domestic) migration, and international migration. In Mozambique, the recoded variable now includes the following options: staying in home community, within Gaza province, and outside of Gaza province (includes within Mozambique and international migration).

Measures of capability.

We use four variables to capture measures of (potential) capability in migration: self-rated health, educational aspirations, and household resources (measured via a household wealth index and primary caregiver education). An individual’s health status may influence migration aspirations, as labor migration often entails physically demanding work under challenging conditions. Adolescent self-rated health is measured via a categorical variable with the following options: bad, okay, good, and very good. To accommodate skewed distributions in this variable across countries, we recoded this variable into a binary variable where 0 indicates “bad, okay, or good” self-rated health and 1 indicates “very good” self-rated health.⁴ Prior research with data from different settings, Young Lives, suggests that educational aspirations are indeed predictive of (internal) migration among young people. Moreover, there appears to be more positive selection into “migration to study” than migration for other reasons (Crivello, 2011; Franco Gavonel, 2023). These findings suggest that we should include educational aspirations as a measure of being future- and goal-oriented at the individual level (an individual-level capability). We capture educational aspirations through the question, “If you could get as much schooling as you want, how far in school would you like to go?” Response options were context specific, and adolescents had an average of 20 response options (20 for Mexico, 23 for Mozambique, and 17 for Nepal); categories ranged from “no school at all” to “doctorate degree.” Based on the distributions of these variables, we created educational aspirations with three general categories: low, medium, and high educational aspirations. In Mexico and Nepal, these designations corresponded with the following categories: less than a post-secondary degree, post-secondary degree (bachelor’s equivalent), and post-graduate or more. In Mozambique, educational categories were lower-secondary or less, any upper-secondary, and any post-secondary.

We also include measures of the resources available at the household level. For this, we rely on two measures: household socioeconomic status and primary caregiver education. Household socioeconomic status is measured via the country-specific results of a principal components analysis (PCA) of household assets and household dwelling materials. We followed the approach developed by Filmer and Pritchett (2001) and widely used in research in low- and middle-income countries. This approach has also been validated in previous research using FAMELO data (Alcaraz et al., 2022; Axxe et al., 2022). The score is mean-centered based on the country-specific mean. Primary caregiver education is measured through the educational attainment of the adult survey respondent; original response categories are measured identically to those in the expanded version of child educational aspirations. Based on the distributions of these variables, we again created measures of primary caregiver education with the relative categories of low, medium, and high educational attainment. In Mexico and Nepal, primary caregiver education is measured in the categories: primary school or less, any lower-secondary, and upper-secondary or more. In Mozambique, the three categories used in the collapsed version of the primary caregiver education measure are preschool or less, primary or less, and lower-secondary or more.

Control variables.

We also account for several individual- and household-level sociodemographic factors related to household resource availability and migration aspirations. Adolescent gender is measured using a dichotomous variable where “1” indicates the adolescent is female and “0” indicates the adolescent is male. Age is a continuous measure ranging from 11 through 17 years old. Institutional engagement and socio-cultural stratification are associated with access to resources within communities and youth aspirations. We control for some socio-cultural stratification within our settings. In Mexico and Mozambique, we include a binary measure of religiosity where “1” indicates parents’ weekly or higher religious attendance as a measure of institutional engagement. In Nepal, religiosity is practiced within and without institutional contexts. In this context, we control for caste of the household head which reflects social status, opportunities, and religious practice. The original question contained the following options: Brahmin Chhetri, Dalit, Hill Janajati, Newar, Terai Janajati, and other. To account for the distribution of the variable and avoid small cell sizes, we recoded this variable into the following categories: Brahmin Chhetri, Hill Janajati, and other (Newar, Terai Janajati, Dalit, and other). We also control for household-level demographic characteristics. Total number of siblings is a continuous variable with ranges of 0 to 9 siblings in Mexico, 0 to 21 siblings in Mozambique, and 0 to 6 siblings in Nepal. History of household migration⁵ is measured using the number of household members who have ever migrated, ranging from 0 to 6 household members in Mexico, 0 to 10 household members in Mozambique, and 0 to 9 household members in Nepal.

Missing data.

Across all three countries, adolescents ages 11 to 17 were asked about their permanent migration aspirations. In Mexico, 58 of 1,567 adolescents did not have valid responses for our dependent variable; all independent and control variables in Mexico were missing less than 5% of observations. In Mozambique, 73 of 1,366 adolescents did not have valid responses for permanent migration aspirations; most independent and control variables were missing 7% of observations or less with the exception of religiosity (12.2%). Lastly, only 2 of 1,898 adolescents in Nepal did not have valid responses for migration aspirations; independent and control variables were missing less than 1% of observations in the Nepal sample.

We used multiple imputation methods to account for missing information on dependent, independent, and control variables for all multivariable analyses. We used chained equation multivariate data imputation that produces and combines results from 25 imputed datasets with 100 burn-in iterations for each dataset (Aloisio et al., 2014; Manly & Wells, 2015; Royston & White, 2011).

Analytic Strategy

We first present descriptive statistics (means, standard deviations, medians, and frequency distributions) of key variables across settings. We then present multinomial logistic regression results for all countries, where key measures of capability into migration aspirations are modeled jointly with control variables. We opt for multinomial logistic regressions because our measure of adolescent migration aspirations includes three, non-ordered categories; this method allows us to compare across all dependent variable categories (Bayaga, 2010). Results are clustered by household, as up to two children were interviewed in each household. Data from all three contexts are not pooled; models are estimated (and interpreted) separately for each individual country.

RESULTS

Descriptive Results

Descriptive statistics are presented in Table 2 for the non-imputed data⁶ for all non-missing observations for adolescents in each country: 1,567 adolescents in Mexico; 1,366 adolescents in Mozambique, and 1,898 adolescents in Nepal. Across all contexts, it was most common for adolescents to indicate that they would like to permanently settle in their home communities. In Mexico, the next most common response was internal migration (23%), followed by international migration (20%). In Mozambique, migration outside of the Gaza province (22%) was the next most common desired destination, followed by migration within Gaza province (14%). In Nepal, internal migration (44%) closely followed behind the desire to settle permanently in one’s home community (48%). The least likely desired permanent destination for adolescents in Nepal was an international destination (8%).

Table 2.

Descriptive Statistics

	Mexico			Mozambique			Nepal
	(N=1,567)			(N=1,366)			(N=1,898)
	Mean (SD)/Prop.	Mdn.	n	Mean (SD)/Prop.	Mdn.	n	Mean (SD)/Prop.	Mdn.	n
Aspiration Outcome Measures
Permanent migration aspirationsa			1,509			1,293			1,896
Staying in community	0.57			0.64			0.48
Internal migration	0.23			0.14			0.44
International migration	0.20			0.22			0.08
Measures of Capability
Child self-rated health			1,558			1,347			1,898
Bad, okay, or good	0.81			0.64			0.89
Very good	0.19			0.36			0.11
Child educational aspirationsb			1,531			1,270			1,897
Low	0.26			0.26			0.35
Medium	0.66			0.64			0.28
High	0.09			0.10			0.37
Household wealth index (range: −10 to 10)	0.1 (1.9)	0.5	1,567	.2 (2.2)	0.6	1,326	−0.1 (2.1)	0.1	1,898
Primary caregiver educationd			1,543			1,344			1,885
Low	0.36			0.27			0.46
Medium	0.48			0.62			0.20
High	0.16			0.11			0.34
Control Variables
Female	0.49		1,567	0.48		1,364	0.49		1,898
Agec	13.8 (1.9)	14.0	1,567	13.6 (1.9)	14.0	1,366	14.2 (2.0)	14.0	1,898
Weekly religious attendance	0.65		1,502	0.91		1,199	-		-
Caste									1,885
Brahmin Chhetri	-		-	-		-	0.47
Hill Janajati	-		-	-		-	0.23
Other	-		-	-		-	0.3
Total number of siblings	2.1 (1.4)	2.0	1,541	3.6 (2.3)	3.0	1,323	1.4 (0.8)	1.0	1,885
Number of household members who have ever migrated	0.6 (1.0)	0.0	1,543	1.2 (1.4)	1.0	1,344	1.0 (1.1)	1.0	1,885

Note. SD = Standard Deviation; Prop. = Proportion; Mdn. = Median

^aDue to the distribution of responses, permanent migration aspirations for Mozambique are divided into the following categories: Staying in community, within Gaza province, and anywhere outside of Gaza province

^bEducational aspirations for Mexico and Nepal are: less than a post-secondary degree, post-secondary degree, and post-graduate or higher. Mozambique: lower-secondary or less, any upper-secondary, and any post-secondary

^cMedian age for boys and girls is the same in Mexico and Nepal. In Mozambique, the median age for boys is 14 and the median age for girls is 13

^dParent education for Mexico and Nepal: primary school or less, any lower-secondary, and upper-secondary or more. Mozambique: Preschool or less, primary or less, and lower-secondary or more; All statistics drawn from all non-missing observations from non-imputed data and are identical to analyses using imputed data except for two minor exceptions. In the imputed analyses, 65% rather than 66% of adolescents wanted a post-secondary degree in Mexico. In Nepal, 33% rather than 34% of adolescent parents had upper-secondary or higher levels of education.

Educational aspirations were relatively high for adolescents across all contexts. In Mexico, 75% of adolescents wanted a post-secondary degree (bachelor’s equivalent) or a post-graduate education of any kind; in Nepal, 65% of adolescents aspired to this same level of education. In Mozambique, 74% of adolescents wanted at least some upper-secondary education. Self-rated health varied across country context. About 36% of adolescents in Mozambique rated their health as very good, though only 19% and 11% of adolescents in Mexico and Nepal, respectively, rated their health similarly. Table 2 also includes the distribution of control variables across the three settings.

Multivariable Results

Next, we describe the main results from multinomial regressions predicting adolescent permanent migration aspirations in Mexico (Table 3), Mozambique (Table 4), and Nepal (Table 5). For ease of interpretation, results are presented as relative risk ratios (with accompanying confidence intervals), where a value above 1 indicates a positive association and a value below 1 indicates a negative association. All multivariable analyses were estimated using imputed data.

Table 3.

Multinomial regressions predicting adolescent permanent migration aspirations in Mexico

	Internal vs. stay	International vs. stay	International vs. internal
	RRR (CI)	RRR (CI)	RRR (CI)
Measures of capability
Self-rated health (vs. Bad, Okay, or Good)
Very good	0.862	0.907	1.052
	(0.618 – 1.203)	(0.640 – 1.287)	(0.705 – 1.570)
Child educational aspirations (vs. post-secondary or less)
Post-secondary degree	2.622***	1.628**	0.621*
	(1.827 – 3.761)	(1.166 – 2.272)	(0.405 – 0.952)
Post-graduate or more	3.813***	2.687***	0.705
	(2.212 – 6.575)	(1.578 – 4.577)	(0.383 – 1.296)
Household wealth	1.050	1.173***	1.117*
	(0.978 – 1.127)	(1.081 – 1.273)	(1.019 – 1.225)
Primary caregiver education (vs. primary school or less)
Any lower-secondary school	1.146	1.007	0.879
	(0.841 – 1.561)	(0.741 – 1.368)	(0.609 – 1.269)
Upper-secondary school or more	2.016**	1.483+	0.736
	(1.336 – 3.041)	(0.972 – 2.263)	(0.457 – 1.185)
Controls
Female	1.107	0.809	0.731+
	(0.849 – 1.442)	(0.617 – 1.059)	(0.533 – 1.001)
Age	1.081*	1.013	0.937+
	(1.011 – 1.156)	(0.947 – 1.084)	(0.868 – 1.012)
Weekly religious attendance	0.929	0.836	0.899
	(0.695 – 1.242)	(0.622 – 1.122)	(0.643 – 1.257)
Number of siblings	1.067	1.045	0.979
	(0.967 – 1.177)	(0.945 – 1.154)	(0.874 – 1.098)
Number of household members who have ever migrated	0.971	1.162*	1.197*
	(0.835 – 1.128)	(1.008 – 1.339)	(1.015 – 1.412)

Note. n = 1,567 adolescents; Results are presented via relative risk ratios (RRR) and are derived from imputed data. Confidence intervals (CI) in parentheses

^***p<.001

^**p<.01

^*p<.05

⁺p<.1.

Table 4.

Multinomial regressions predicting adolescent permanent migration aspirations in Mozambique

	Within Gaza vs. stay	Outside of Gaza vs. stay	Outside of Gaza vs. Within Gaza
	RRR (CI)	RRR (CI)	RRR (CI)
Measures of capability
Self-rated health (vs. Bad, Okay, or Good)	1.163	1.333+	1.146
Very good	(0.815 – 1.659)	(0.991 – 1.792)	(0.765 – 1.716)
Child educational aspirations (vs. lower-secondary or less)
Any upper-secondary	1.497+	0.903	0.603+
	(0.938 – 2.389)	(0.625 – 1.306)	(0.355 – 1.026)
Any post-secondary	1.345	1.417	1.054
	(0.621 – 2.912)	(0.789 – 2.545)	(0.452 – 2.455)
Household wealth	0.894*	1.000	1.119*
	(0.818 – 0.976)	(0.925 – 1.082)	(1.011 – 1.239)
Primary caregiver education (vs. pre-school or less)
Primary or less	1.176	1.073	0.912
	(0.785 – 1.763)	(0.754 – 1.526)	(0.565 – 1.471)
Lower-secondary or more	1.584	1.856*	1.171
	(0.793 – 3.164)	(1.069 – 3.221)	(0.538 – 2.551)
Controls
Female	2.434***	3.082***	1.266
	(1.750 – 3.386)	(2.294 – 4.142)	(0.848 – 1.890)
Age	1.052	1.019	0.969
	(0.964 – 1.149)	(0.942 – 1.103)	(0.873 – 1.075)
Weekly religious attendance	1.416	1.332	0.940
	(0.686 – 2.926)	(0.744 – 2.383)	(0.415 –2.128)
Number of siblings	1.036	0.989	0.955
	(0.964 – 1.112)	(0.928 – 1.054)	(0.882 – 1.033)
Number of household members who have ever migrated	1.008	1.054	1.046
	(0.900 – 1.130)	(0.954 – 1.165)	(0.920 – 1.189)

Note. n = 1,366 adolescents; Results are presented via relative risk ratios (RRR) and are derived from imputed data. Confidence intervals (CI) in parentheses

^***p<.001

^**p<.01

^*p<.05

⁺p<.1.

Table 5.

Multinomial regressions predicting adolescent permanent migration aspirations in Nepal

	Internal vs. stay	International vs. stay	International vs. internal
	RRR (CI)	RRR (CI)	RRR (CI)
Measures of capability
Self-rated health (vs. Bad, Okay, or Good)
Very good	1.354+	1.147	0.847
	(0.982 – 1.868)	(0.642 – 2.050)	(0.485 – 1.479)
Child educational aspirations (vs. post-secondary or less)
Post-secondary degree	1.555***	1.498	0.964
	(1.200 – 2.015)	(0.857 – 2.618)	(0.556 – 1.672)
Post-graduate or more	1.439**	1.966**	1.366
	(1.108 – 1.870)	(1.178 – 3.283)	(0.829 – 2.251)
Household wealth	0.982	1.305*	1.328**
	(0.933 – 1.035)	(1.061 – 1.605)	(1.084 – 1.629)
Primary caregiver education (vs. primary school or less)
Any lower-secondary school	1.412*	1.847*	1.308
	(1.068 – 1.868)	(1.057 – 3.227)	(0.764 – 2.238)
Upper-secondary school or more	1.379*	1.892*	1.372
	(1.049 – 1.868)	(1.096 – 3.266)	(0.815 – 2.308)
Controls
Female	4.052***	8.985***	2.218***
	(3.305 – 4.966)	(5.788 – 13.948)	(1.437 – 3.421)
Age	1.019	1.064	1.044
	(0.967 – 1.074)	(0.966 – 1.172)	(0.950 – 1.147)
Caste (vs. Brahmin Chhetri)
Hill Janajati	0.979	0.624+	0.637+
	(0.745 – 1.288)	(0.363 – 1.074)	(0.379 – 1.071)
Other	0.690**	0.442**	0.641
	(0.530 – 0.898)	(0.238 – 0.823)	(0.351 – 1.170)
Number of siblings	1.056	0.844	0.800+
	(0.930 – 1.198)	(0.642 – 1.111)	(0.618 – 1.036)
Number of household members who have ever migrated	0.969	1.261***	1.301***
	(0.876 – 1.072)	(1.101 – 1.444)	(1.130 – 1.498)

Note. n=1,898 adolescents; Results are presented via relative risk ratios (RRR) and are derived from imputed data. Confidence intervals (CI) in parentheses

^***p<.001

^**p<.01

^*p<.05

⁺p<.1.

Measures of Capability

Across all contexts, self-rated health was not significantly associated with permanent migration aspirations. This stands in contrast to existing research that shows a positive association between health and migration (especially international migration; Lu, 2008; Lu & Li, 2020). In additional analyses (see Online Supplement, Tables S1–S3), we estimated models operationalizing child self-rated health with two categories: 0) bad/okay and 1) good/very good, and results did not substantively change. Thus, self-rated health does not appear to be linked to capability or need. Though self-rated health has consistently been validated as an important measure of health, one possible explanation for this finding is that this measure was not associated with migration goals because current health status may not be proximate enough to a permanent living arrangement for adolescents to make this connection. We return to this issue in greater length in the Discussion and Conclusion section.

Higher educational aspirations were positively and significantly associated with the relative odds of wanting to migrate either internally (Mexico: p < .001; Nepal: p = .006) or internationally (Mexico: p = .004; Nepal: p = .010) rather than remaining in one’s home community for adolescents in both Mexico and Nepal. For example, the odds of wanting to migrate internally rather than remaining in one’s hometown were nearly 4 times higher for Mexican adolescents who aspired to get any post-graduate education, compared to their peers who wanted to get less than a bachelor’s degree (p < .001). We found similar results in the case of international migration aspirations in Mexico. However, adolescents who wanted to earn a post-secondary degree (bachelor’s equivalent) had lower odds of wanting to migrate internationally rather than internally compared to their peers who aspired to less than a post-secondary degree (p = .029). For adolescents with high educational aspirations, internal migration may be required to achieve their goals. In the Mexican context, for example, universities are often located in urban centers and internal migration becomes an important vehicle for obtaining higher education. Though more modest in size, we found similar results for educational aspirations in the Nepal context; however, when comparing international and internal migration aspirations, the association between educational aspirations and migration aspirations was not statistically significant. These results provide evidence in support of the capability hypothesis of migration (H1) in both Mexico and Nepal. We note that these results held true and remained significant even in the presence of controls for household resources and characteristics. Educational aspirations were not significantly associated with migration aspirations for adolescents in Mozambique, suggesting a different mechanism through which adolescents in this setting formed their migration aspirations.

Household socioeconomic status was positively associated with the odds of wanting to settle in another country rather than staying in one’s home community in Mexico and Nepal (Mexico: p < .001; Nepal: p = .012). Household socioeconomic status was also positively associated with the odds of wanting to settle in an international rather than an internal (domestic) location in both Mexico and Nepal (Mexico: p = .018; Nepal: p = .006). The same was true for adolescents in Mozambique who aspired to migrate outside of Gaza province rather than within Gaza province (p = .030). International, and more distant, migration may require additional resources to fund the trip and establish a new household in the destination country (Beine et al., 2016; Czaika & Vothknecht, 2014; Willekens et al., 2016). The cost of internal migration may be lower due to physical proximity and potential social networks that can offset the costs of migration (Ginsburg et al., 2016; Heckert, 2015). In contrast, household socioeconomic status was negatively associated with adolescents’ desire to move within the Gaza province rather than staying in their home communities (p = .012). These results may indicate that having additional resources reduces the motivation for migration, allowing adolescents to meet their aspirations to stay in their home community rather than leave it. Again, in the cases of Mexico and Nepal, these results provide evidence in support of the capability hypothesis of migration. Conversely, in the case of Mozambique, these results collectively provide partial support for the capability hypothesis for migration aspirations (H1) outside of Gaza province and partial support for the need hypothesis for migration aspirations (H2) within the Gaza province.

Parental education also captures access to resources in the household. In Mexico, adolescents whose parents had higher levels of education had higher odds of wanting to migrate internally rather than remaining in their home community (p = .001). It is possible that higher education becomes normative when parents have higher levels of education, norms which may encourage Mexican youth in rural regions to migrate to urban areas (Ducoing Watty, 2018; Valentine et al., 2016). In Nepal, parental education was significantly and positively associated with adolescents’ desire to migrate both internally (p = .021) and internationally (p = .031) rather than staying at home. We observed similar patterns in Mozambique. Adolescents whose parents had higher levels of education had higher odds of saying they would like to live outside of Gaza province rather than remaining in their home communities (p = .028). Adolescents may be more exposed to life outside of their home communities if their parents have higher levels of education, particularly if parents were required to migrate to attain their own schooling.

Control Variables

Across all contexts, there were other associations with permanent migration aspirations worth noting. In Mexico, girls had lower odds of wanting to settle internationally rather than internally, compared to boys, although this association is only marginally significant (p = .051). Household migration history was positively associated with the odds of wanting to settle internationally rather than internally, including in adolescents’ home community (p = .033). Given the importance of social networks for migration (Creighton & Riosmena, 2013; Garip & Asad, 2016), living in migrant-sending households may signal to adolescents that they have the social capital necessary to migrate internationally.

In Mozambique, girls had significantly higher odds of wanting to settle both within and outside of Gaza province rather than remain in their home communities, compared to boys (p < .001). Recent data notes that young women’s economic opportunities are becoming more accessible and prominent in urban areas (Ibraimo et al., 2023). It is possible that girls in the sample know of these opportunities or know others in their communities who have been able to access jobs in urban centers. Moreover, girls may be more able to easily access economic opportunities outside of the home in urban areas, where gender norms may be less rigid (Agger et al., 2018).

In Nepal, girls also had higher relative odds of wanting to live outside of their home communities, in either internal or international locations, rather than remain in their home communities compared to boys (p < .001). Additionally, girls had higher odds of wanting to settle in an international location rather than an internal location relative to boys (p < .001). These trends may reflect increases in women’s educational and economic opportunities in Nepal – changes which could translate to higher migration aspirations (Yeung et al., 2018). These gendered patterns of internal migration aspirations in Nepal and Mozambique may also reflect cultural expectations for girls’ mobility upon the transition to adulthood when they move for marriage – or their desire to move to access more education. But girls’ greater aspirations to move internationally when compared to boys in Chitwan, Nepal needs further study.

In Nepal, household migration history was positively and significantly associated with wanting to migrate internationally rather than stay in one’s home community (p < .001) and with wanting to settle in an international location rather than in a domestic location (p < .001). The extant research shows a consistent, positive association between social networks at migrant destinations and the likelihood – and feasibility – of completing migration (Haug, 2008; Massey, 1990; Massey & Aysa-Lastra, 2011). Adolescents may be more likely to want to migrate if they believe that they can carry out a trip. Moreover, the intrinsic value of migration (de Haas, 2021; Harris & Todaro, 1970) – experiencing new places and expanding one’s world view – may be more apparent to adolescents whose proximate family members have migrated. Lastly, the association between caste and migration aspirations varied across groups (see Table 5).

A summary of the main results and support for our proposed hypotheses is presented in Table 6 below. We observed support for the capability hypothesis in Mexico and Nepal. It seems likely that youth in these settings who have access to resources and aspirations for socioeconomic mobility through education (i.e., high educational aspirations) view geographic mobility as a route to achieve their goals. Our analyses in the Mozambique context were mixed and show partial, weak support for both our capability and need hypotheses.

Table 6.

Summary of hypotheses and results, by country and migration type

	Mexico		Mozambiquea		Nepal
	Internal	International	Internal	International	Internal	International
H1: The “capability” hypothesis of migration aspirations	Supported	Supported	Not supported	Partially supported	Supported	Supported
H2: The “need” hypothesis of migration aspirations	Not supported	Not supported	Partially supported	Not supported	Not supported	Not supported

Note.

^aDue to the distribution of responses, permanent migration aspirations are measured differently in Mozambique than in Mexico and Nepal. Due to space constraints, internal migration here refers to within Gaza province and international migration refers to anywhere outside of Gaza province.

Sensitivity Analyses

In alternative descriptive analyses (see Online Supplement, Figures S1 and S2), we calculated the most common reasons given for leaving their community among adolescents who expect to live elsewhere as adults. Across contexts, the most common responses were work and education. Sample sizes significantly decreased when examining the reasons for leaving and preclude additional multivariable analyses of these subgroups. Nonetheless, these results were consistent with the pattern of results in Table 6.

In other analyses, we considered that the age range of adolescents in our sample is wide and may capture different developmental stages, where the 17-year-olds are likely closer to the opportunity to realize migration aspirations when compared to the younger adolescents in the sample. To assess this, we provide additional analyses (see Online Supplement, Tables S4–S9), in which we disaggregated the results by age group and include two new tables for each study context: migration aspirations for 11–13-year-olds and migration aspirations for 14–17-year-olds. In a few cases, effect size or statistical significance varied slightly, but the results are relatively consistent with those for all adolescents combined.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Aspirations and goals in adolescence are shaped by social norms but also by the opportunities and resources available. Drawing upon the aspirations-capabilities framework (de Haas, 2021), we posit two separate and opposing hypotheses to account for adolescent migration aspirations in disparate social and economic settings. First, our capability hypothesis: adolescents with greater potential capabilities (as measured by high self-reported health, high educational aspirations, and high household resources) will be more likely to aspire to migrate either internally or internationally. Second, our need hypothesis: adolescents with greater need or lower potential capabilities (as measured by poor health, low educational aspirations, and low household resources) will be more likely to aspire to migrate. These hypotheses are meant to consider not only how would-be migrants are selected but also why migration aspirations might vary across adolescents with different levels of resources within varying individual country contexts.

Across contexts, we find substantially more support in favor of our capability hypothesis. That is, Mexican and Nepalese adolescents who rate higher on our measures of educational aspirations and household wealth are more likely to aspire to migrate. Notably, it is in the settings with relatively high levels of primary school enrollment where we find educational aspirations and household wealth to be significantly and positively associated with international migration aspirations, compared to internal migration aspirations or aspirations to remain in the local community. This pattern may reflect the centrality of schooling during adolescence in these contexts, when educational aspirations are closely tied to anticipated life trajectories. In this stage of the life course, migration can be imagined not only as an economic strategy but also as a way to sustain education or achieve credentials viewed as markers of successful adulthood, making capabilities like household wealth and educational ambition especially salient. In Mexico, these findings align with past research showing that higher education and household resources are associated with a greater likelihood of international migration (Asad & Garip, 2019; Avila Sánchez et al., 2018; Durand & Massey, 2019; Zenteno et al., 2013). Even so, given the concurrent decline of international migration to the US and increase in internal migration from rural to urban areas, further research should continue to examine whether this association holds true over time. That is, will ambitious educational goals and family wealth continue to be associated with the ability – and desire – to stay in one’s home community or migrate internally?

Our data do not allow us to formally test why we see such similar results for adolescents in Mexico and Nepal, even when these are very different geographic, social, and political contexts. However, important similarities in the ubiquity of international migration, receipt of remittances, and types of migration give us an insight into these overlapping results. Though the rise of international migration from Nepal is more recent than the Mexico-U.S. migration system, the country has, in recent decades, seen a significant increase in out-migration. For example, in 2019, migrant remittances sent to Nepal were valued at nearly $9 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 28% of the country’s total gross domestic product (Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security (MOLESS), 2020). The receipt of remittances is also very widespread, with an average of one-third of Nepalese households receiving remittances (International Labour Organization (ILO), 2021); these rates are even higher in places with significant out-migration, including the Chitwan Valley. International migrants from Nepal to the Middle East (the most common destination for Nepalese migrants) regularly engage in circular migration (Kay-Flowers et al., 2023), similar to past trends in the Mexico-U.S. migration tradition. Migration appears to be a strategy that is both regular and visible in many Nepalese households; thus, adolescents in Nepal may see international migration as not only possible but also desirable and normative, similar to past research on “the culture of migration” in Mexico and other countries (Agadjanian et al., 2021; Ali, 2007; Kandel & Massey, 2002; Timmerman et al., 2014). Future research could provide more insight into the formation of adolescent migration aspirations in this emerging migration tradition.

In Mozambique, we find only partial support for the capability hypothesis, as household wealth is positively associated with adolescent aspirations to migrate somewhere outside of Gaza province versus within the Gaza province. Conversely, we also find some evidence to support the need hypothesis in this context: household wealth is negatively associated with the desire to migrate within Gaza versus staying. Here, if the upfront cost of migration is relatively low, migration may be most accessible and appealing among those with the lowest capabilities (McKenzie & Rapoport, 2010). Those with less need are more likely to want to – and be able to – stay. Educational aspirations are not associated with migration aspirations in Mozambique as they are in Mexico and Nepal. These patterns may also reflect differences in how adolescence is structured in Mozambique. Where secondary schooling is less accessible, the transition from childhood to adult roles such as work or marriage may occur earlier, making education a less central driver of aspirations at this age. Mozambique is characterized by lower educational expansion compared to the other settings, and education may not yet be as associated with higher wages, either in or outside of Gaza province.

Notably, self-rated health is not associated with migration aspirations in any of the contexts. Although good health is positively associated with migration (especially international migration) in many settings (Diaz et al., 2016; Lu, 2008; Lu & Li, 2020), we do not see a similar association with self-rated health and migration aspirations among adolescents. This discrepancy could be due to the age of our sample. Though self-rated health serves as a proxy for adolescent health, adolescents may not accurately report their actual health status. Further, individual perceptions of current health are substantively different from the health status needed to complete migration. Adolescents may not be proximate enough to the timing of their intended migration to consider whether their health is sufficient for making a move. And it may be that health is consistently high enough in our young sample that it does not figure prominently in their life goals. Due to data constraints, we must rely on adolescents’ reports of self-rated health; it is possible that direct measures of health and relatively rare physical limitations would reveal more significant association with adolescents’ envisioned futures. Future research should further explore these associations.

The current study has additional limitations worth noting. First, because we focus on adolescents’ desired permanent residence, our analyses necessarily focus on voluntary mobility and voluntary immobility (de Haas, 2021), as the data do not allow us to capture involuntary forms of mobility. Future research, particularly qualitative and ethnographic work, should continue to apply this framework across migration contexts and seek to better understand multiple forms of voluntary and involuntary mobility – and their associations with individual aspirations and capabilities. It is also possible that in high out-migration contexts, individuals may assert a desire to migrate due to social desirability bias. However, we rely on previous research on migration aspirations that has validated this measure not only as a valid measure of current aspirations but also as strongly correlated with subsequent actual migration (Creighton, 2013; de Haas, 2021; Timmerman et al., 2014). Second, our data are not nationally representative but are instead representative of three specific in-country contexts. However, study sites were selected to account for high levels of out-migration to study how family and community contexts of migration shape children’s and adolescents’ trajectories. These data are thus uniquely suited to explore the questions at the core of our study; few nationally representative datasets in middle- or low-income countries include measures of aspirations and goals among young people. Third, the cross-sectional data prevents us from examining whether these associations vary over time, as adolescents age. Finally, we rely on a measure of permanent migration aspirations – adolescents’ desired place of residence in adulthood – that does not account for temporary moves; adolescents may want to migrate temporarily prior to other transitions to long-term residence. Relatedly, the data do not allow us to capture local and international social and political events that likely shape adolescents’ desires to migrate or to stay. For example, in the Mexico-U.S. case, increasing militarization at the border, punitive migration policies, and the risk of family separation may shape young people’s migration goals. Additional work is needed in this area to account for migration aspirations with respect to timing, recurrence, and type of migration, as well as both sending- and receiving-country contextual factors.

Importantly, our study examines how capabilities shape migration aspirations within sending communities. When migrants are observed in their destination settings, they often have higher health, education, and household resources than non-migrants—due to positive selection of migrants and constraints on migration opportunities imposed by receiving countries. Our focus is on how these factors may structure migration aspirations even before any migration decision is made or actualized. Although the analyses cannot directly engage with selection processes shaped by receiving-country dynamics, such as immigration policies or migration networks, our results point to the importance of individual and familial capabilities to shape adolescents’ migration aspirations, potentially contributing to the self-selection into migration. Additionally, our study centers adolescence as a distinct stage in the migration decision-making process. By situating capabilities within developmental and cultural contexts, our findings highlight that the same predictors – education, household resources, social capital – may operate differently for adolescents than for adults, and that these differences vary across migration systems.

Overall, the results point to higher migration aspirations for those in settings where education is a route to upward mobility, where resources are sufficient to support migration, and where such moves can be expected to facilitate access to education or higher wages. We find only limited evidence that additional resources are associated with the odds of desiring to stay in one’s home community. In general, our results are consistent with prior work suggesting that education and wealth provide not only the means for migration but motivations as well.

In addition, variation across sites is a key contribution of our work: how capability motivates migration appears to depend on the local culture of migration (e.g., if extended educational careers are normative in a community) and availability of resources in both the sending and receiving country contexts. Future research could shed light on whether predictors of migration aspirations correspond with features of migration systems, such as the distances needed to travel or norms surrounding educational attainment. For instance, youth who perceive advantages to education as a means for upward mobility may also perceive migration as a necessary conduit to achieving socioeconomic success, which would account for migration from rural-urban areas as well as international migration (Allendorf et al., 2019; Corbett, 2007; Rodrigo & Ricci, 2018).

Results also speak to the utility and importance of applying the aspirations-capabilities framework of migration (de Haas, 2021). Though much empirical work on migration has conceptualized migration (and aspirations for migration), as a natural result of push- and pull-factors that create conditions to facilitate (im)mobility, this framework requires scholars to deliberately consider how desires for migration are a product not only of wanting to migrate but also having the capability to realize migration goals.

Data availability statement:

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.