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. 2026 Apr 25;36:e70153. doi: 10.1002/rmv.70153

Beyond the Usual Suspects: Emerging Associations Between Epstein‐Barr Virus Infection/Infectious Mononucleosis and Cancers

Marisa D Muckian 1, Graham S Taylor 2, John Diaz‐Decaro 3, Enejda Senko 3, Helen R Stagg 1,
PMCID: PMC13109813  PMID: 42033165

ABSTRACT

Epstein‐Barr virus (EBV) is a ubiquitous herpesvirus and a causal factor for Burkitt Lymphoma (BL), Hodgkin Lymphoma (HL), gastric carcinoma (GC) and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Whether EBV contributes to a wider spectrum of cancers remains uncertain. We reviewed MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science on 30th July 2024 to identify observational studies that examined the association between EBV infection or EBV‐infectious mononucleosis (IM) and cancers beyond BL, HL, GC and NPC. Evidence was appraised using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework. For cancers meeting minimum thresholds we assessed etiologic fractions (EFs), biological plausibility, epidemiological burden, latency after IM, and predictive biomarkers. Thirty‐three eligible studies were identified, yielding 13 hypotheses (i.e., specific potential reported associations between EBV infection or IM and individual cancer types) that advanced through GRADE. Breast cancer and NHL had the greatest weight of biological plausibility, cervical and prostate the least. Despite an array of tests, testicular cancer studies provided limited evidence. EFs ranged between 12.3% (IM‐breast) and 85.1% (EBV infection‐NHL). Breast and prostate cancers had the highest global incidence. Only one study (for NHL) provided data on time from IM to cancer onset, and prostate‐specific antigen was the only biomarker identified. In this review, we highlight eight cancers across six cancer groups (breast, cervical, leukaemia/other haematologic, NHL, prostate, testicular) with some evidence of EBV involvement. These results reinforce the potential long‐term value of EBV vaccine development, while emphasising the need for high‐quality prospective studies with robust methods of viral detection to establish causality.

Keywords: cancer, epstein‐barr virus, glandular fever, infectious mononucleosis


Abbreviations

ALL

acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

AML

acute myeloid leukaemia

ASIR

age standardised incidence rate

AUC

area under the curve

BALF5

BamHI‐A fragment containing the fifth leftward open reading frame

BamHI

a restriction enzyme derived from Bacillus amyloliquefaciens H

BHLF

BamHI H fragment leftward open reading frame

BHRF

BamHI H fragment rightward open reading Frame

BL

Burkitt Lymphoma

BMR

Basal Metabolic Rate

CI

confidence interval

CLL

chronic lymphocytic leukaemia

CML

chronic myeloid leukaemia

CPRD

Clinical Practice Research Datalink

DCIS

ductal carcinoma in situ

DLBCL

diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma

EA

early antigen

EBER

Epstein‐Barr Virus‐Encoded Small RNAs

EBNA

Epstein‐Barr Virus Nuclear Antigen

EBV

Epstein‐Barr Virus

EBV‐W

Epstein‐Barr Virus W region DNA

EF

etiologic fraction

FL

Follicular Lymphoma

GBD

Global Burden of Disease

GC

gastric carcinoma

GLOBOCAN

Global Cancer Observatory

Gp

glycoprotein

GRADE

Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation

HL

Hodgkin Lymphoma

HR

hazard ratio

IgG

immunoglobulin G

IHC

immunohistochemistry

IHME

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

IL

interleukin

IM

infectious mononucleosis

ISH

in situ hybridisation

LMP

latent membrane protein

ML

malignant lymphoma

MM

multiple myeloma

MS

Multiple Sclerosis

mT/NK

Mature peripheral T‐cell and NK‐cell Lymphomas

N/A

Not Applicable

NASBA

nucleic acid sequence‐based amplification

NHL

non‐Hodgkin Lymphoma

NK

natural killer

NPC

nasopharyngeal carcinoma

OR

odds ratio

PAF

population attributable fraction

PCR

polymerase chain reaction

PEO

Population, Exposure, Outcome

PLL

prolymphocytic leukaemia

PRISMA

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐Analyses

PSA

prostate‐specific antigen

RR

risk ratio

SIR

standardised incidence ratio

SLL

small lymphocytic lymphoma

UK

United Kingdom

USA/US

United States of America

VCA

viral capsid antigen

vIL

viral interleukin

ZEBRA

BamH1 Z Epstein‐Barr Virus Replication Activator

1. Introduction

Epstein‐Barr virus (EBV) is a herpesvirus that infects 95% of the global population for life, with different ages at infection in different populations [1]. EBV has long been known to be associated with four malignancies‐ Burkitt Lymphoma (BL), Hodgkin Lymphoma (HL), gastric carcinoma (GC) and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) [2]. These four cancers are also associated with different stages of the EBV lifecycle: type I latency is seen in BL, type I/II in GC, and type II in HL and NPC [3]. In some instances, the association between EBV and the cancer is thought to at least partly be through EBV‐infectious mononucleosis (EBV‐IM), which typically occurs in adolescence and young adulthood [4].

Recent innovations in vaccine technologies and a contemporary study strongly implicating EBV in the development of multiple sclerosis (MS) [5] has reignited the search for an EBV vaccine. Equally, the potential for a vaccine that either prevents EBV infection or EBV‐associated sequelae has stimulated interest in which other conditions such a vaccine could prevent.

In this review, we systematically examined evidence for associations between EBV infection or EBV‐IM and malignancies beyond BL, HL, GC, and NPC. We appraised the strength of evidence using the GRADE framework, estimated etiologic and population attributable fractions (EFs/PAFs) where possible, and explored biological plausibility through molecular detection studies. We also characterised the global and country‐specific burden of these cancers, examined the timing between EBV‐IM and cancer onset, and reviewed available biomarkers that might inform early detection or risk stratification.

2. Methods

To explore the potential role of EBV infection or EBV‐IM in cancers beyond BL, HL, GC, and NPC, we adopted a staged approach. We began with a literature review, accompanied by a quality assessment, to identify studies reporting associations between EBV infection or EBV‐IM and malignancies outside the four established EBV‐related cancers. From these studies, we extracted hypotheses, that is specific potential reported associations between EBV infection or EBV‐IM and individual cancer types and appraised their strength using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework [6]. Only hypotheses that achieved at least a low level of certainty (the highest rating possible for observational evidence) were advanced to subsequent stages.

For the hypotheses that were advanced, we conducted targeted searches of the molecular evidence to assess biological plausibility. We also examined the global and country‐specific burden of disease using GLOBOCAN [7] and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study (IHME) [8] data. From the original literature review, we extracted information on latency periods between EBV‐IM and cancer onset, where available. We also calculated PAFs and EFs using effect estimates reported in eligible studies. Finally, we performed targeted searches for biomarkers that might predict the development of EBV‐associated malignancies before clinical onset. The detailed methods for each step are described in the following sections.

2.1. Literature Review

2.1.1. Search Strategy and Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science on 30th July 2024, using terms related to EBV infection, infectious mononucleosis (IM), and malignancy (Appendix 1). Eligible studies were defined using a population–exposure–outcome (PEO) framework (Table 1), with detailed inclusion and exclusion criteria provided in Table 2. We did not require IM to be explicitly confirmed as EBV‐related, given that EBV accounts for the majority of IM [9]. In this paper, we thus refer to IM rather than EBV‐IM where the former term is more appropriate.

TABLE 1.

PEO framework definitions.

PEO framework item Definition for the review
Population Human populations globally, with no restrictions on age, sex, or geography.
Exposure Evidence of EBV infection (serology or DNA detection) or a recorded history of IM.
Outcome Any cancer diagnosis other than the four well‐established EBV‐associated cancers (BL, HL, NPC, GC).

Note: Population, exposure and outcome (PEO) framework used for the review.

Abbreviations: BL, Burkitt lymphoma; EBV, Epstein‐Barr virus; GC, gastric carcinoma; HL, Hodgkin lymphoma; IM, infectious mononucleosis; NPC, nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

TABLE 2.

Inclusion and exclusion criteria for screening.

Inclusion Exclusion
Language Studies in any language
Time Studies from any time point
Study type

Original research articles

Cross sectional

Cohort

Case‐control

Case reports

Retracted studies

Molecular biology studies

Review articles, including systematic reviews and meta‐analyses

Study population Human studies

Animal studies

Population was those with cancer only (no healthy controls)

Only documented cancer outcomes HL, BL, NPC, or GC

EBV infection or IM

EBV serostatus determined via serology, or EBV DNA detected in blood

IM self‐reported or determined via medical records

EBV infection papers without a seronegative baseline (i.e., where only levels of antibodies amongst those seropositive were compared)
Ascertainment of cancer status

Self‐report

Medical records or cancer registries

Note: Papers retrieved from the search were screened against the following inclusion and exclusion criteria. When serological data were used to identify cases of EBV infection, we did not extract any accompanying results from nucleic acid based viral detection assays such as PCR.

Abbreviations: BL, Burkitt lymphoma; EBV, Epstein‐Barr virus; GC, gastric carcinoma; HL, Hodgkin lymphoma; IM, infectious mononucleosis; NPC, nasopharyngeal carcinoma; PCR, polymerase chain reaction.

2.1.2. Screening and Data Extraction

After deduplication in EndNote, records were managed using Rayyan [10]. Title/abstract and full text screening were performed by one reviewer (MDM), with a plan to assess foreign language articles in collaboration with fluent speakers. For studies reporting on multiple cancer outcomes, all relevant data were extracted.

In addition to the criteria listed in Table 2, we also excluded papers/data for lymphomas where lymphoma subtype was not reported due to concerns about inclusion of HL. However, studies that included B‐cell lymphomas were retained, even if some cases involved BL, as BL itself is rare in most countries and these studies often reported on other non‐Hodgkin lymphomas (NHLs) that were of interest to our analysis. Data extraction was performed in duplicate (MDM, HRS) using a predefined template, with disagreements resolved by consensus. There were no foreign language papers eligible for data extraction.

2.1.3. Quality Assessment

Study quality was assessed using an adapted version of the Newcastle‐Ottawa tool [11], which assesses the quality of non‐randomised studies (Table 3‐ cohort studies and Table 4‐ case control studies). The guidance of Deeks et al. [12] was used for the adaptation, which included additional questions around the appropriateness of the statistical methods used. Application of the tool was done in duplicate by MDM and HRS and disagreements were resolved by consensus.

TABLE 3.

Modified Newcastle‐Ottawa quality assessment criteria for cohort studies.

Newcastle‐Ottawa criteria (maximum score) Interpretation (basis for score)
Representativeness of the exposed cohort (1) Exposed cohort representative of the underlying population targeted by the study
Selection of the non‐exposed cohort (1) Non‐exposed cohort taken from the same underlying population as the exposed cohort
Ascertainment of the exposure (1) Exposure measured using serology or taken from medical records
Outcome absent at start of study (1) Cancer only diagnosed after EBV infection was ascertained or IM occurred.
Comparability of cohorts (2)

Exposed and unexposed cohorts were balanced by age and sex +1

Exposed and unexposed cohorts were also balanced by additional factors +2

Assessment of outcome (1) Diagnosis of cancer was taken from record linkage or assessed without knowledge of the exposure
Duration of follow‐up (1) Follow‐up was a minimum of 10 years
Adequacy of follow‐up (1) Loss to follow up was 25% or less and balanced for both the exposed and unexposed groups. If specific numbers were not available, judgement calls were made as to whether the degree of losses appeared to be below the threshold
Appropriate statistical methods (1) Statistical method applied was appropriate for the hypothesis and study design
Control of confounding (1) Analysis accounted for confounding (age, sex)

Note: Criteria outlined by the Newcastle‐Ottawa quality assessment tool. Modifications were made according to the recommendations by Deeks et al. [12] and thus the criteria include two additional questions assessing the appropriateness of the statistical methods and controlling for confounding.

Abbreviations: EBV, Epstein‐Barr virus; IM, infectious mononucleosis.

TABLE 4.

Modified Newcastle‐Ottawa quality assessment criteria for case‐control studies.

Newcastle‐Ottawa criteria (maximum score) Interpretation (basis for score)
Adequacy of case definition (1) Independent validation of cases (e.g., hospital records, registry data)
Representativeness of the cases (1) No risk of selection bias e.g., all the cases at the hospital included
Selection of controls (1) Community controls
Definition of controls (1) Confirmation no cancer at baseline
Comparability of cases and controls (2)

Cases and controls were balanced by age and sex +1

Cases and controls were also balanced by additional factors +2

Ascertainment of exposure (1) Exposure measured using serology or taken from medical records
Same method for cases and controls (1) Same method of exposure ascertainment was used for cases and controls
Non‐response rate (1) Similar proportion of cases and controls did not agree to be part of the study
Appropriate statistical methods (1) Statistical method applied appropriate for the hypothesis and study design
Control of confounding (1) Analysis accounted for confounding (age, sex)
Simultaneous ascertainment of exposure and outcome (−1) If the exposure was measured at the same time as the outcome or, even, after it (e.g., during cancer treatment)

Note: Criteria outlined by the Newcastle‐Ottawa quality assessment tool. Modifications were made according to the recommendations by Deeks et al. [12] and thus the criteria include two additional questions assessing the appropriateness of the statistical methods and controlling for confounding. An additional modification was made assessing whether exposure and outcome status were determined simultaneously.

2.1.4. Registration

This review was registered with PROSPERO‐ CRD42025647912. MDM is the guarantor of the work.

2.2. Strength of Evidence Appraisal (GRADE)

For each EBV‐cancer hypothesis identified, we applied the GRADE framework to assess certainty of evidence. In accordance with GRADE guidance, evidence from observational studies begins at low certainty and can be downgraded or upgraded depending on study characteristics. Downgrading was applied for risk of bias, inconsistency, indirectness, or imprecision; upgrading was possible for large effect sizes, dose‐response relationships, or the plausible residual confounding in an analysis only possibly leading to an underestimate of the apparent treatment effect. For our analysis, after applying the framework, hypotheses rated at least low certainty were advanced. To maintain comparability, EBV and IM hypotheses were advanced in parallel when at least one met the threshold criteria (i.e., low certainty). Breast cancer was also retained post hoc, based on prior systematic review evidence supporting its plausibility [13].

2.3. Biological Plausibility

For advanced hypotheses, we conducted separate, targeted, PubMed searches for molecular studies assessing EBV presence in human tumour tissue. Following the criteria from a prior review [13], we classified evidence combining three considerations together‐the types of test used, whether samples tested positive, and the number of papers. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) evidence alone was considered weakest (although the test has the benefit of being highly sensitive) because it cannot exclude bystander EBV‐infected cells infiltrating the tumour. By comparison, in situ hybridisation (ISH) can localise EBV to tumour cells and, when performed using probes specific for the highly abundant EBV‐encoded Epstein‐Barr Virus‐Encoded Small RNAs (EBERs), can detect EBV cells regardless of their stage of viral latency or whether they are undergoing lytic replication. While immunohistochemistry (IHC) can also localise EBV to tumour cells, it is less sensitive than EBER‐ISH and antibodies specific for some EBV proteins may not detect all forms of viral latency. Combinations of PCR plus ISH plus/minus immunohistochemistry (IHC) within a single study were considered the best evidence. The presence of multiple papers provided additional reassurance‐provided that test results were positive‐particularly if only a single study had used PCR plus ISH plus/minus IHC, but other studies also provided ISH plus/minus IHC evidence.

2.4. PAFs and EFs

For advanced hypotheses and where adjusted effect estimates were available, we calculated PAFs (percentage of cases in the population attributable to EBV infection or IM) using Miettinen/Flegal's formula [14, 15, 16] and EFs (percentage of cases among the exposed attributable to EBV infection or IM) using standard approaches for case‐control studies [17]. Calculations were limited to studies that adjusted for at least age and sex. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs), risk ratios (RRs), or hazard ratios (HRs) from eligible studies served as inputs for EF and PAF calculations. Studies of EBV infection were required to report using either IgG‐viral capsid antigen (VCA) or IgG‐EBV nuclear antigen (EBNA) [18], as these are indicative of recent or past infection. If a study presented results for multiple relevant antibody/antigen combinations, all were extracted. If a mixture of antigen/antibody combinations were reported, these were extracted so long as at least one relevant combination was included.

2.5. GLOBOCAN and IHME

We obtained global and country‐specific incidence data for the advanced hypotheses from GLOBOCAN (2022) and the GBD Study (2021) using the most recent releases available from each source. Both datasets provide age‐standardised incidence rates by cancer type and country, but rely on different modelling approaches; therefore, data from both were extracted to provide complementary estimates of global burden.

2.6. Length of Time Until Onset of Cancer

For hypotheses involving IM, we extracted data on the time interval between IM diagnosis and subsequent cancer onset from eligible studies identified in the initial literature review. Timing data were only available and analysed for advanced IM‐related hypotheses.

2.7. Biomarkers

To identify biomarkers predictive of cancer development before clinical onset (i.e., that are useful for the early detection of those cancers), separate targeted PubMed searches were conducted. Inclusion criteria comprised studies reporting on large population‐based cohorts, and‐when available‐quantifiable diagnostic performance metrics, such as sensitivity, specificity, or the area under the curve (AUC) were sought. This assessment was performed only for advanced hypotheses.

3. Results

3.1. Literature Review Search Results

After searching three databases and deduplication, the literature search returned 9077 papers, of which 33 met our inclusion criteria (Figure 1, Appendix 2).

FIGURE 1.

FIGURE 1

PRISMA diagram of included studies. PRISMA diagram charts the number of records excluded at the different stages of the screening process.

Studies were present from all world regions. Twenty‐seven (27/33, 82%) were case‐control designs and six (18%) were cohort studies. Twenty‐four (73%) examined EBV infection and nine (27%) examined IM. One (3%) reported infection results for EBV DNA only. Several studies specifically examined seroconversion following EBV infection (e.g., Cox et al. [19]), while others used IgM to detect recent EBV infection (e.g., Dagash et al. [20]). The cancers investigated ranged from breast cancer to leukaemia; some studies used the same underlying datasets to look at multiple cancers for example Cai et al. [21].

3.2. Literature Review Quality Assessment

Overall, the cohort studies were broadly well‐conducted, performing strongly in the selection of the non‐exposed cohort, confirming that outcomes were absent at baseline, applying appropriate statistical methods, and adequately controlling for confounding (Appendix 3). However, only half (3/6, 50%) reported fully representative cohorts, and two‐thirds (4/6, 66%) clearly described losses to follow‐up or met the predefined threshold for attrition.

Among the case‐control studies, most studies had representative cases (i.e., minimal risk of selection bias) (23/27, 85%), an adequate case definition (26/27, 96%), an adequate definition for the controls (25/27, 93%), appropriate ascertainment of the exposure (24/27, 89%), used the same method to assess the exposure in both groups (26/27, 96%), appropriate statistical methods (25/27, 93%), and accounted for confounding (23/27, 85%) (Appendix 4). Eight (30%) received lower scores for simultaneous ascertainment of exposure and outcome including one (1/8, 13%) that measured the exposure after the outcome.

3.3. Literature Review Strength of Evidence

In total, 30 hypotheses were identified in the literature review and evaluated using the GRADE framework (Appendix 5). Two studies that reported on NHL specified analyses on chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL), prolymphocytic leukaemia (PLL), small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL) subtypes [22, 23]. As the authors classified these as subsets of NHL (rather than leukaemia), they were treated as NHL throughout this analysis.

Among the EBV infection hypotheses, low certainty evidence was identified for two (2/13, 15%)‐ cervical and ovarian cancers. Cervical cancer was rated as ‘not serious’ across all relevant domains. Ovarian cancer was not taken further within the review because its effect estimates suggested a protective association. All remaining EBV infection hypotheses had very low certainty evidence. One leukaemia study showed inconsistent findings by age group, with older participants showing a possible protective association and younger participants a potential increased risk [24].

Among the IM‐cancer hypotheses, low certainty evidence was observed for NHL, leukaemia, male genital, multiple myeloma (MM), prostate and testicular (6/17, 35%). Prostate, MM and NHL were initially downgraded to very low, then upgraded due to large effect sizes. Leukaemia and testicular cancers were rated as ‘not serious’ across all relevant domains. The male genital hypothesis was not taken further in the review due to neutral effect estimate from a single study. The rest of the hypotheses had very low certainty evidence.

Across both EBV infection and IM, 13 hypothesis (43%) were advanced to the next stage. Six (6/13, 46%) were advanced because they were rated low certainty (EBV infection‐cervical, IM‐NHL, IM‐leukaemia, IM‐MM, IM‐prostate and IM‐testicular). Three (23%) EBV infection hypotheses were advanced because their corresponding IM hypotheses met the low certainty threshold (EBV infection‐leukaemia, EBV infection‐NHL, EBV infection‐testicular). One (8%) IM hypothesis (IM‐female genital) was advanced as the corresponding EBV infection‐cervical hypothesis was rated low. The IM‐leukaemia finding also supported inclusion of the broader ‘IM‐other haematologic’ category (1/13, 8%), which was later subdivided by haematologic subtype. EBV infection‐CLL/PLL/SLL, EBV infection‐diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL), or EBV infection‐follicular lymphoma (FL) were not advanced individually because doing so would move from a broader to a more specific classification of NHL. Nonetheless, global burden data are later presented by NHL subtype.

Hypotheses advanced to the next stage had to demonstrate that EBV infection or IM acted as a risk factor, not a protective or neutral exposure.

Finally, we reinstated the EBV infection‐ and IM‐breast hypotheses (2/13, 15%) for advancement, given the results of the prior systematic review that we used as a framework to guide the biological plausibility assessment [13].

3.4. Biological Plausibility

The results of the biological plausibility assessment are summarised in Appendix 6. No eligible studies were identified for MM. Leukaemia and other haematologic malignancies were assessed together as a single group.

EBV/EBV‐IM‐breast cancer had a large volume of contributing papers (23), only one (4%) of which contained solely samples that tested negative. Amongst the remaining 22, three (14%) reported results for PCR plus ISH evidence plus/minus IHC data. A further two (9%) reported results for ISH evidence without PCR. The majority of the remaining studies reported results for PCR evidence only.

EBV/EBV‐IM‐NHL studies likely represent a broad array of NHL subtypes. Of the six contributing studies, one (17%) contained solely samples that tested negative. That study only tested 14 samples. Restricting to the five remaining studies, two (40%) reported results for PCR plus ISH plus/minus IHC evidence, and two (40%) others ISH evidence plus/minus IHC evidence.

Of the two EBV/EBV‐IM‐testicular cancer studies, one (50%)‐ which undertook PCR, ISH and IHC testing‐reported Epstein‐Barr Virus‐Encoded Small RNAs (EBER) detection only in reactive lymphocytes, not tumour cells. This study was thus essentially disregarded. Although PCR plus ISH plus IHC evidence was reported in the second and samples tested positive, should be treated with caution due to the use of an in‐house probe.

Among the six EBV/EBV‐IM‐leukaemia studies, five reported results for PCR evidence only (83%) and one (17%) ISH evidence only. All studies contained positive results. EBV/EBV‐IM‐prostate and cervical studies were limited by only PCR evidence being reported, with only three studies across the two cancers.

3.5. PAFs/EFs

Data were available for PAF calculations for 11 hypotheses (Table 5). The high global prevalence of EBV infection resulted in comparatively large PAFs relative to IM, as IM does not occur in everyone who becomes infected with EBV. When interpreting IM‐related PAFs, it is important to consider potential information bias in IM studies compared with EBV infection studies, especially when hospitalisation data were used to define the exposure as most IM is managed in outpatient settings. Such under‐ascertainment of IM would likely bias PAF estimates downward, both by reducing the measured prevalence of IM exposure and by misclassifying some exposed individuals as unexposed. Conversely, if cancer risk is more strongly associated with clinically severe IM, hospital‐based definitions may preferentially capture the subgroup most relevant to risk. Evidence remains limited, however, on whether IM severity modifies cancer risk, and hospitalisation is an imperfect proxy that varies across settings. Accordingly, PAF estimates for IM should be interpreted cautiously and are context‐dependent. Among EBV infection hypotheses, NHL and testicular had the highest PAFs, supported by multiple studies. For IM, breast cancer had the lowest value (0.02%) and NHL the highest, again across multiple studies.

TABLE 5.

PAFs and EFs.

Exposure Cancer Country Age of study population Antibody/antigen combination Percentage of people with the cancer of interest who were documented as infected with EBV/had IM (%) OR/RR/HR PAF (%) EF (%) Study
EBV infection Cervical Finland 15 years or older IgG VCA 69.0 1.4 19.7 28.6 [25]
Leukaemia Germany 6 months‐15 years IgG VCA/EBNA 52.5 2.05 26.9 51.2 [24]
NHL USA 30–84 years IgG VCA 93.8 1.22 16.9 18.0 [22]
USA 47–95 years IgG VCA/EBNA‐1/EA‐D/ZEBRA 94.2 1.28 20.6 21.9 [26]
Czech Republic, France Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain Adults < 38 years to ≥ 72 years IgG VCA/EBNA‐1, IgM VCA 26.3 a 2.88 17.2 65.3 [27]
24.2 a 1.44 7.4 30.6 [27]
Greece 0–14 years IgG VCA 76.7 6.73 65.3 85.1 [28]
Italy 35–65 years IgG EBNA 86.8 1.4 24.8 28.6 [29]
Testicular Norway Adults; mean 35.7 years IgG VCA 97.5 2.74 61.9 63.5 [30]
IgG EBNA (EBNA‐1) 95.1 2.04 48.5 51.0 [30]
IM Breast UK (Oxford) All ages N/A 0.2 1.14 0.02 12.3 [31]
UK (England) All ages N/A 0.1 1.35 0.02 25.9 [31]
Leukaemia UK (England) All ages N/A 0.4 2.23 0.24 55.2 [31]
MM UK (England) All ages N/A 0.2 3.99 0.16 74.9 [31]
NHL USA 18–100 years N/A 0.1 2.7 0.07 63.0 [32]
UK (Oxford) All ages N/A 0.4 1.78 0.19 43.8 [31]
UK (England) All ages N/A 0.7 5.59 0.58 82.1 [31]
Other haematologic Denmark All ages N/A 0.4 1.61 0.15 37.9 [21]
Prostate UK (England) All ages N/A 0.1 4.94 0.10 79.8 [31]
Testicular UK (Oxford) All ages N/A 1.2 1.55 0.43 35.5 [31]

Note: PAFs/EFs were calculated per study. To be eligible for PAFs/EFs to be calculated, the study specific effect estimates (OR/RR/HR) had to be adjusted for at least age and sex. The percentage of people with the cancer of interest who were documented as infected with EBV/had IM was also taken from each study. Studies of EBV infection had to have measured this using either IgG‐VCA or IgG‐EBNA. PAFs were calculated using Miettinen/Flegal's formula from advanced hypotheses. Depending on the study design, ages may relate to age at enrolment or age at cancer diagnosis. They may also represent the age range for an underlying study from which the documented study was sampled, as opposed to for the documented study itself. In some instances, the full range of ages was not clear.

Abbreviations: EA, early antigen; EBNA, EBV nuclear antigen; EF, etiologic fraction; HR, hazard ratio; IgG, immunoglobulin G; MM, multiple myeloma; NHL, non‐Hodgkin lymphoma; OR, odds ratio; PAF, population attributable fraction; RR, risk ratio; VCA, viral capsid antigen; ZEBRA, BamHI Z EBV replication activator.

a

Two separate subtypes of NHL.

EFs ranged between 12.3% (IM‐breast cancer) and 85.1% (EBV infection‐NHL). Where cancers were represented for both EBV infection and IM, EF results were generally consistent across exposures, in contrast to PAFs, for which differences reflected the large disparity in exposure prevalence.

These PAF and EF estimates are study‐specific. As EBV infection is nearly universal, even small effect estimates yield large PAFs. The very high seroprevalence among cancer cases (e.g., > 90% for testicular cancer) likely reflects background infection rates rather than true etiologic attribution.

3.6. GLOBOCAN and IHME

Among the cancers of interest, global age‐standardised incidence rates were highest for breast and prostate cancer (Figure 2). According to IHME estimates, the age‐standardised incidence rates were 46.8 per 100,000 person years for breast cancer and 29.4 per 100,000 person years for prostate cancer. GLOBOCAN reported corresponding rates of 24.6 (due to estimates being for both males and females) and 34.0 per 100,000 person years, respectively.

FIGURE 2.

FIGURE 2

Global age‐standardised incidence rates of the cancers of interest. Age‐standardised incidence rates per 100,000 person years from GLOBOCAN (2022, light green) and IHME (2021, dark green) for the cancers of interest. Numbers at the top of the columns indicate the precise numbers. Note that the GLOBOCAN breast cancer data are for females only, IHME data are for males and females. Prostate, cervical and testicular estimates are single‐sex in both instances. GLOBOCAN, Global Cancer Observatory; IHME, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

For the specific leukaemia categories, data were available only from IHME. Both IHME and GLOBOCAN reported separate estimates for MM. IHME also provided data for the CLL subtype of NHL, but not the PLL and SLL subtypes.

There was substantial country‐by‐country variation in the age‐standardised incidence rates of the cancers (Appendix 7). No data were available for MM.

3.7. Length of Time Until Onset

A single study reported data on latency between IM and the diagnosis of the cancer of interest [31]. Using hospitalisation data from England, UK, the study found that 10/12 (83%) of NHL was diagnosed within 1 year of hospital admission for IM, which by common practise in cancer epidemiology is excluded due to the potential for reverse causality.

3.8. Biomarkers

One study assessed whether biomarkers could predict our cancers of interest [33]. Among men 40–59 years of age, higher midlife prostate‐specific antigen (PSA) levels were strongly predictive of increased long‐term risk of prostate cancer (AUC 0.75–0.83, depending upon age and whether the cancer was lethal).

4. Discussion

We conducted a literature review with accompanying quality assessment, GRADE, and biological plausibility assessments to evaluate cancers potentially associated with EBV infection and IM beyond BL, HL, GC and NPC. For cancers advanced on their GRADE results, we summarised available data on disease burden, timing onset after IM, PAFs, EFs, and biomarkers.

Table 6 summarises findings for the eight cancers advanced for further evaluation (breast, cervical, leukaemia, MM, NHL, other haematologic, prostate, and testicular) grouped into six broader cancer categories. Across these categories, NHL, MM and prostate cancer demonstrated the largest EFs (either as standalone estimates or within a range), while NHL and testicular cancer showed the largest PAFs within their respective grouping (i.e., EBV infection or IM). Breast cancer and NHL had the greatest weight of evidence for biological plausibility, cervical and prostate cancers the least. Despite using an array of tests, the testicular cancer studies were limited in their evidence. Only prostate cancer had an identified predictive biomarker, and only NHL had information on the timing of onset following IM. The highest global burdens were observed for breast, cervical and prostate cancers.

TABLE 6.

Summary table of advanced exposure‐outcome hypotheses.

Exposure‐outcome hypothesis GRADE rating PAF/EFs calculable? Burden estimates found? Biomarkers found? Timing data found?
EBV infection associated with:
Breast Very low No Yes No N/A
Cervical Low Yes Yes No N/A
Leukaemia Very low Yes Yes No N/A
NHL Very low Yes Yes No N/A
Testicular Very low Yes Yes Yes N/A
IM associated with:
Breast Very low Yes Yes No No
Female genital Very low No Yes No No
Leukaemia Low Yes Yes a No No
MM Low Yes Yes No No
NHL Low Yes Yes No Yes
Other haematologic Very low Yes Yes b No No
Prostate Low Yes Yes Yes c No
Testicular Low Yes Yes No No

Note: Summary of findings for the advanced hypotheses, including data availability. Burden estimates, and biomarkers assessed for the cancer, not for the hypothesis.

Abbreviations: EBV, Epstein‐Barr virus; EF, etiologic fraction; IM, infectious mononucleosis; MM, multiple myeloma; NHL, non‐Hodgkin lymphoma; PAF, population attributable fraction.

a

The burden of leukaemia was assessed in subtypes where possible in IHME and GLOBOCAN.

b

Although no overall burden estimate was available for other haematologic cancers, this was noted as ‘yes’ due to the availability of relevant subtype data.

c

Although no IM‐specific biomarkers were identified, biomarkers of EBV infection were considered relevant and are included here.

Our findings complement and extend evidence from cancers with established EBV associations, recognising that the proof of such causal links often emerged over decades. For example, in the case of BL in the 1960s, the presence of replication‐competent EBV in tumour cells provided strong biological plausibility, although the exact pathogenic mechanism remains uncertain [34]. The most compelling evidence to date for an EBV‐MS association came from a large, long‐term epidemiological study in US Army recruits, published in 2022 [5]. This landmark study paralleled the design and rigour of the largest cohort studies identified within our review, and followed preceding epidemiological studies and biological experiments for example [35, 36]. Again, the exact mechanism of EBV action is subject to debate [34]. Finally, large pooled analyses from international collaborations, such as the InterLymph consortium, have also contributed substantially to understanding lymphoma risk factors, including infectious exposures such as EBV [37].

Strengths of this work include its staged approach integrating multiple complementary assessments (i.e., literature synthesis, quality appraisal, GRADE evaluation, and biological plausibility assessment) to triangulate evidence on EBV‐associated cancers. This multidimensional approach allowed for additional context to characterise the strength and coherence of evidence across diverse study designs. The use of predefined GRADE criteria and an explicit set of modifications to the Newcastle‐Ottawa Scale enhanced transparency and reproducibility. By combining epidemiologic and biological perspectives, the review also provides a foundation for prioritising hypotheses with the greatest potential biological relevance, which can inform future mechanistic and observational work.

Limitations include single‐reviewer screening, limited inclusion of non‐English databases, and heterogeneity in study quality and generalisability. The GRADE process, though structured and transparent, involves some subjective interpretation in how evidence is pooled and hypotheses are grouped. For example, the large effect sizes reported by Goldacre et al. [31] for IM‐pancreatic cancer was subsumed under the broader digestive cancer hypothesis. Similarly, effect sizes for IM‐oral cavity, pharynx, and lip cancers were not upgraded due to inconsistency across studies, and IM‐malignant brain cancer results were too borderline to justify upgrading. For Akre et al. [30], heterogeneity in antibody‐specific effects prevented upgrading of the EBV infection–testicular cancer hypothesis. Extensive between‐study variability precluded formal meta‐analysis. We were also limited by a lack of studies on biomarkers and latency intervals. We note potential information bias due to inclusion of IM cases without EBV confirmation, which could represent alternative aetiologies. Finally, despite a rigorous and comprehensive search strategy, studies in which infectious mononucleosis or EBV‐related exposures were not explicitly referenced in titles or abstracts may not have been identified during screening, particularly when these exposures were assessed alongside broader childhood, social, or environmental factors.

Our research indicates that eight additional cancers (across six groups) warrant further investigation to clarify whether, and through what mechanisms, EBV may contribute to their development. These findings suggest that EBV‐associated malignancy may represent a broader public health burden than previously appreciated. While prophylactic vaccination remains a key area of interest, improved understanding of EBV's role in malignancy may also inform therapeutic or adjunctive strategies, including therapeutic vaccination, antiviral approaches, and immunomodulatory interventions. This may be particularly relevant for cancers with long latency or indirect viral involvement.

Additionally, future research evaluating the link between EBV/EBV‐IM and potentially related cancers should leverage large, nationally representative datasets and fit‐for‐purpose observational study designs. A major gap in the evidence base is the lack of longitudinal, biomarker‐based studies of EBV seroconversion and subsequent infectious mononucleosis during adolescence, as such studies have largely focused on young adults or early childhood, despite adolescence being a critical risk period [38, 39, 40, 41, 42]. Addressing this gap will require studies designed to accommodate long latency, low incidence, and secular trends in cancer epidemiology. These studies should account for long latency, low incidence and secular trends of cancer epidemiology. Designs such as case‐cohort or nested case‐control studies, target trial emulation using routinely collected data, and quasi‐experimental approaches (e.g., interrupted time series [43] or difference‐in‐differences analysis [44]) can strengthen causal inference. Increasingly, linked record systems, such as the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) [45] in the UK and Scandinavian national registries, enable long‐term follow‐up, outcome validation‐ and through tokenised linkages‐the ability to combine randomised trial data with real‐world evidence [46]. Complementary laboratory studies, with careful assay selection to ensure robust methods of viral detection, could further support mechanistic understanding.

When randomised controlled trials are infeasible for outcomes with long latency, convergent evidence from observational, quasi‐experimental, and mechanistic studies is essential to build confidence in the underlying biology and expected impact of EBV vaccines. Such studies could employ target trial emulation frameworks [47] or pragmatic [48] and registry‐based trials [49] embedded in vaccine roll‐outs to evaluate long‐term effects, similar to the approach taken for human papillomavirus vaccines [50]. Non‐specific vaccine effects, such as those proposed by Bacille Calmette‐Guérin vaccine and measles vaccines [51, 52], could merit exploration in the EBV context, potentially revealing broader immunological effects.

5. Conclusion

In conclusion, through a comprehensive literature review and a series of structured assessments including study quality, GRADE, and biological plausibility, we identified eight potential additional cancers (within six cancer groups) with a reasonable degree of evidence for potential association with EBV infection or IM. Three cancers (breast, cervical, prostate) showed the highest global burden, with age‐standardised incidence rates exceeding 10 per 100,000 person years. Although specific biomarkers have not yet been established for EBV‐related cancers, examples from other contexts, such as PSA for prostate cancer [53], illustrate how validated biomarkers could help accelerate the evaluation of long term‐outcomes following EBV vaccination. Collectively, these findings expand current understanding of EBV's oncogenic potential beyond the four well‐established malignancies (i.e., BL, HL, GC, and NPC) and highlight the need for multidisciplinary research integrating epidemiologic, clinical and laboratory approaches to clarify mechanisms and inform future prevention strategies.

Author Contributions

H.R.S., M.D.M., G.S.T. and J.D.D. conceptualised the work. E.S. performed the project administration for the work. M.D.M. curated and analysed the data, the other authors supervised her doing this. M.D.M. and H.R.S. prepared the original draft, the other authors reviewed and edited the work.

Funding

M.D.M., G.S.T. and H.R.S. declare funding from Moderna Inc., for this work.

Ethics Statement

The authors have nothing to report.

Consent

The authors have nothing to report.

Conflicts of Interest

M.D.M., G.S.T. and H.R.S. declare funding from Moderna Inc., for this work. J.D.D. and E.S. are employees of Moderna and may hold stocks and/or stock options. Outside of this work, G.S.T. has previously received money from Cancer Research UK, Blood Cancer UK, the UK Medical Research Council, Melanoma UK, Pfizer, and the University of Birmingham to support his research team. H.R.S. has previously received grant funding from the Wellcome Trust and Moderna Inc., outside of this work but on the topic of Epstein Barr Virus, and has also undertaken consultancy for Bavarian Nordic.

Permission to Reproduce Material From Other Sources

The authors have nothing to report.

Appendix 1. Search Terms

Embase Classic + Embase <1947 to 2024 July 29>

Detailed search terms and Boolean logic used for MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science (to July 2024) to identify studies examining Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) infection, infectious mononucleosis (IM), and malignancy.

Line Terms Hits
1 Epstein‐Barr virus.mp. or Epstein barr virus/ 68,347
2 Human herpesvirus 4.mp. 170
3 Epstein barr virus/or infectious mononucleosis/or Epstein barr virus infection/ 65,366
4 HHV‐4.mp. 96
5 HHV4.mp. 41
6 EBV.mp. 47,507
7 Glandular fever.mp. 451
8 cancer.mp. or malignant neoplasm/ 4,885,554
9 Neoplasm/ or neoplasm.mp. 830,922
10 malignan*.mp. 1,273,035
11 Leukaemia/ or leukaemia.mp. 597,060
12 leukaemia.mp. 62,893
13 lymphoma.mp. or lymphoma/ 426,015
14 Carcinoma/ or carcinoma.mp. 1,559,724
15 tumour.mp. 404,926
16 tumour.mp. 3,859,126
17 Blastoma/ or blastoma.mp. 4233
18 Melanoma/ or melanoma.mp. 272,659
19 cytoma.mp. 96
20 sarcoma.mp. or sarcoma/ 198,492
21 Epidemiology/ or epidemiology.mp. 1,755,384
22 epidemiol*.mp. 2,009,675
23 Case control study.mp. or case control study/ 272,910
24 Cohort analysis.mp. or cohort analysis/ 1,203,415
25 Longitudinal study.mp. or longitudinal study/ 243,479
26 Cross‐sectional study.mp. or cross‐sectional study/ 697,938
27 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 86,000
28 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 or 13 or 14 or 15 or 16 or 17 or 18 or 19 or 20 7,563,896
29 21 or 22 or 23 or 24 or 25 or 26 3,946,636
30 27 and 28 and 29 5355

Ovid MEDLINE(R) ALL <1946 to July 29, 2024>

Line Terms Hits
1 Epstein‐Barr virus.mp. or Epstein barr virus/ 45,021
2 Human herpesvirus 4.mp. 905
3 Epstein barr virus/or infectious mononucleosis/ or Epstein barr virus infection/ 36,387
4 HHV‐4.mp. 60
5 HHV4.mp. 27
6 EBV.mp. 31,745
7 Glandular fever.mp. 278
8 cancer.mp. or malignant neoplasm/ 2,547,854
9 Neoplasm/ or neoplasm.mp. 1,304,156
10 malignan*.mp. 735,571
11 Leukaemia/ or leukaemia.mp. 354,467
12 leukaemia.mp. 39,763
13 lymphoma.mp. or lymphoma/ 279,462
14 Carcinoma/ or carcinoma.mp. 1,010,294
15 tumour.mp. 251,323
16 tumour.mp. 2,110,544
17 Blastoma/ or blastoma.mp. 1202
18 Melanoma/ or melanoma.mp. 162,331
19 cytoma.mp. 36
20 sarcoma.mp. or sarcoma/ 128,394
21 Epidemiology/ or epidemiology.mp. 2,349,990
22 epidemiol*.mp. 2,514,787
23 Case control study.mp. or case control study/ 367,539
24 Cohort analysis.mp. or cohort analysis/ 352,663
25 Longitudinal study.mp. or longitudinal study/ 200,601
26 Cross‐sectional study.mp. or cross‐sectional study/ 592,500
27 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 54,758
28 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 or 12 or 13 or 14 or 15 or 16 or 17 or 18 or 19 or 20 4,811,730
29 21 or 22 or 23 or 24 or 25 or 26 3,443,207
30 27 and 28 and 29 3155

Web of Science ‐ Web of Science Core Collection to 29th July 2024

Line Terms Hits
1 ALL=(Epstein‐Barr virus) 49,767
2 ALL=(Epstein‐Barr virus infections) 21,915
3 ALL=(Herpesvirus 4) 6313
4 ALL=(HHV4) 25
5 ALL=(HHV‐4) 66
6 ALL=(EBV) 33,031
7 ALL=(infectious mononucleosis) 5493
8 ALL=(glandular fever) 254
9 ALL=(Cancer) 4,735,354
10 ALL=(neoplasms) 245,429
11 ALL=(malignan*) 757,049
12 ALL=(leukaemia) 428,707
13 ALL=(leukemia) 460,103
14 ALL=(lymphoma) 311,063
15 ALL=(carcinoma) 1,115,482
16 ALL=(Tumour) 2,313,927
17 ALL=(Tumour) 2,393,620
18 ALL=(Blastoma) 8126
19 ALL=(Melanoma) 212,205
20 ALL=(cytoma) 57
21 ALL=(sarcoma) 132,989
22 ALL=(epidemiol*) 1,591,354
23 ALL=(case‐control studies) 166,176
24 ALL=(cohort studies) 867,502
25 ALL=(longitudinal studies) 417,497
26 ALL=(cross‐sectional studies) 548,953
27 #1 OR #2 OR #3 OR #4 OR #5 OR #6 OR #7 OR #8 66,213
28 #9 OR #10 OR #11 OR #12 OR #13 OR #14 OR #15 OR #16 OR #17 OR #18 OR #19 OR #20 OR #21 6,439,447
29 #22 OR #23 OR #24 OR #25 OR #26 3,052,632
30 #27 AND #28 AND #29 4239

Appendix 2. Included Studies

Summary of all studies meeting the inclusion criteria, including design, population, exposure definition, cancer type, data source, and effect estimates. All strength of association results used seronegative as the baseline.

First author Study design Years of study Country/ies of study Population Sample size Exposure definition (antibody/antigen combination to test for EBV infection, DNA to indicate EBV infection, or IM) Type of cancer(s) Source of outcome data Strength of association (CI in brackets)
Agborsangaya [54] Case‐control (nested) 1983‐? Finland Pregnant females 108 cases, 208 controls IgG EBNA‐1, EBNA‐1/ZEBRA Pregnancy associated breast Cancer registry

EBNA‐1 aOR 0.7 (0.2–2.2)

EBNA‐1/ZEBRA aOR 1.7 (1.0–2.8)

Akre [30] Case‐control (nested) 1973–1993 Norway Males 81 cases, 242 controls IgG EBNA, EBNA‐1, VCA Testicular Cancer registry

EBNA aOR 2.04 (0.59–7.01)

EBNA‐1 aOR 2.04 (0.59–7.01)

VCA aOR 2.74 (0.62–12.12)

Bertrand [22] Case‐control (nested) 1982–2003 USA Male physicians and female nurses 340 cases, 662 controls IgG VCA NHL (CLL/SLL) Medical records, histologically confirmed VCA aOR 1.22 (0.71–2.12)
Cai [21] Cohort 1973–2016 Denmark General population 1,419,407 EBV‐IM Multiple cancers Cancer registry

IM other (non‐lymphoid) haematologic aHR 1.61 (0.23–11.51)

IM other (non‐haematologic) aHR 1.41 (1.01–2.00)

Coghill [55] Case‐control (nested) 1998 Norway/USA European ancestry cohorts 360 cases, 397 controls Any antibody VCA, EBNA‐1 Glioma (including subtypes) Histological criteria

Norway VCA aOR 0.55 (0.32–0.94)

Norway EBNA‐1 aOR 0.97 (0.60–1.58)

USA VCA aOR 0.34 (0.08–1.47)

USA EBNA‐1 aOR 0.46 (0.14–1.55)

Cox [19] Case‐control (nested) 1973–2003 Norway Females 399 cases, 399 controls IgG VCA Breast Cancer registry VCA aOR 0.7 (0.1–4.0)
Dagash [20] Case‐control 2017–2018 Iraq Hospital patients and healthy neighbour‐hood controls 123 cases, 123 controls IgM (no specific antigen) Malignant neck mass Medical records, diagnostic criteria aOR 1.37 (0.56–3.38)
De Roos [23] Case‐control (nested) 1994–2009 USA Community dwelling, post‐menopausal, women 491 cases, 491 controls IgG VCA, EBNA‐1 NHL (CLL/PLL/SLL) Medical records

VCA aOR 0.9 (0.5–1.3)

EBNA‐1 aOR 0.5 (0.3–0.8)

de Sanjose [27] Case‐control 1998–2003 Czech Republic, France Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain European lymphoma patients with population or non‐cancer hospitalised population controls 1085 cases, 1153 controls

IgG VCA/EBNA‐1

IgM VCA

B‐cell, T‐cell (including subtypes, not including HL) Medical records, 20% of samples independently histologically confirmed.

B‐cell aOR 2.88 (2.16–3.85)

T‐cell aOR 1.44 (0.88–2.37)

Dillner [56] Case‐control 1984–1991 Sweden Females admitted for treatment and population‐based controls 94 cases, 188 controls IgG EBNA‐1 Cervical Medical records EBNA‐1 aOR 0.97 (0.53–1.78)
Goldacre [31] Cohort 1963–2005 UK Individuals admitted to hospital 17,826 IM, 3,949,220 no IM IM Multiple cancers Medical records

ENGLAND

Oral cavity, pharynx, lip aHR 5.54 (1.14–16.2)

Colon aHR 1.19 (0.25–3.48)

Pancreas aHR 7.73 (1.59–22.7)

Breast aHR 1.35 (0.37–3.45)

Prostate aHR 4.94 (1.02–14.5)

All skin aHR 0.72 (0.15–2.09)

Malignant brain aHR 2.15 (0.58–5.52)

NHL aHR 5.59 (2.88–9.79)

MM aHR 3.99 (0.10–22.3)

Leukaemia aHR 2.23 (0.72–5.23)

OXFORD REGION

Rectum aHR 1.39 (0.17–5.04)

Colon aHR 0.41 (0.01–2.28)

Breast aHR 1.14 (0.42–2.48)

Lung aHR 0.30 (0.01–1.70)

Testis aHR 1.55 (0.19–5.69)

Bladder aHR 1.74 (0.36–5.10)

All skin aHR 1.05 (0.22–3.07)

NHL aHR 1.78 (0.37–5.23)

Hakama [25] Case‐control 1962–1981 Finland Females, general population cases and controls 32 cases, 64 controls IgG VCA Cervical Cancer registry VCA aOR 1.4 (0.5–3.8)
Heng [57] Case‐control 2012–2016 Canada/USA Adult female participants in web‐based surveys of breast cancer risk factors 3497 IM, 12,739 no IM IM Invasive breast Self‐report aOR 0.83 (0.72–0.94) (most adjusted model)
Hjalgrim [58] Cohort 1960s‐1995 Denmark, Sweden General population 38,562 IM, standardised EBV‐IM Multiple cancers Cancer registry

Buccal cavity and pharynx aSIR 0.73 (0.47–1.09)

Digestive organs and peritoneum aSIR 0.91 (0.79–1.05)

Respiratory organs aSIR 0.75 (0.62–0.89)

Breast aSIR 1.07 (0.92–1.23)

Female genital organs aSIR 1.05 (0.88–1.25)

Male genital organs aSIR 0.96 (0.76–1.19)

Urinary system aSIR 0.81 (0.63–1.01)

Skin aSIR 1.27 (1.13–1.43)

Other specified sites aSIR 1.11 (0.92–1.34)

NHL aSIR 1.21 (0.87–1.64)

MM aSIR 1.19 (0.61–2.08)

Leukaemia aSIR 1.26 (0.90–1.71)

Kartsonaki [59] Case‐control (nested) 2004–2016 China General population 597 cases, 1986 controls VCA, EBNA‐1, EA‐D, ZEBRA (no specific antibody) Oesophageal, gastric and duodenal cancers Medical records VCA aHR 0.59 (0.04–8.96)
Koshiol [32] Cohort 1969–1996 USA Male veterans (black or White) 4,501,578 IM NHL Medical records aHR 2.7 (1.4–5.5)
Lehtinen [60] Case‐control (nested) 1968–1980s Finland General population 11 cases, 22 controls IgG VCA, EBNA NHL Cancer registry

VCA aOR 0.6 (0.1–4.3)

EBNA aOR 0.4 (0.1–2.0)

Mahjour [61] Case‐control 2007–2008 Iran Children admitted to hospital and children attending a routine appointment 90 cases, 90 controls IgG VCA, EBNA‐1 ALL Medical records

VCA OR 2.7 (1.28–5.58)

EBNA‐1 OR 0.84 (0.47–1.50)

Massa [62] Cohort 1989–2007 USA Female nurses 81,807 IM Invasive breast Self‐report, medical records aHR 1.00 (0.90–1.11)
Michos [28] Case‐control 1996–2003 Greece Newly diagnosed children and children attending the hospital for a minor ailment 73 cases, 73 controls IgG VCA NHL Medical records, histologically confirmed VCA aOR 6.73 (1.45–31.20)
Richardson [63] Case‐control 1992–1995 Australia Females under 40 newly diagnosed and population controls 208 cases, 169 controls IgG VCA Breast Cancer registry VCA aOR 1.11 (0.34–3.73)
Richiardi [29] Case‐control (nested) 1993–2005 Italy Adults taking part in a study on cancer and diet 91 cases, 182 controls IgG EBNA NHL Cancer registry, mortality registry, local demographic offices, medical records, active follow‐up aOR 1.4 (0.7–2.8)
Roderburg [64] Cohort 2000–2018 Germany > 14 years olds registered with primary care 12,095 IM, 12,095 no IM IM Multiple cancers Medical records

Prostate aHR 3.09 (1.23–7.76)

Lip, oral cavity and pharynx aHR 1.48 (0.49–5.53)

Lymphoid and other haematologic aHR 1.75 (1.22–2.50)

Female genital aHR 1.46 (0.40–5.53)

Breast aHR 1.21 (0.80–1.85)

Skin aHR 1.20 (0.85–1.71)

Urinary tract aHR 1.15 (0.56–2.36)

Digestive aHR 0.80 (0.51–1.26)

Respiratory aHR 0.57 (0.29–1.09)

Sawaya [65] Case‐control 2012–2014 France Newly diagnosed males and population controls 803 cases, 866 controls IM Prostate Medical records, histologically confirmed aOR 0.92 (0.46–1.86)
Schlehofer [24] Case‐control 1990–1991 Germany Children 6 months‐15 years and controls treated for other conditions 104 cases, 168 controls IgG VCA/EBNA Leukaemia Cancer registry

0–5 year‐olds aOR 2.05 (0.99–4.23)

6+ year‐olds aOR 0.48 (0.19–1.21)

Sjostrom [66] Case‐control (nested) 1990s–2000s Denmark, Sweden Adults taking part in a series of underlying studies 197 cases, 394 controls IgG EBNA‐1 Glioma Cancer registry EBNA‐1 aOR 0.64 (0.39–1.06)
Steininger [67] Case‐control 2004–2005 Austria and USA Cases from Austrian/USA cohorts and White controls presenting for testing of immunity post‐vaccination from Austria 200 cases, 100 controls IgG (no specific antigen) CLL Unknown OR 0.43 (0.17–1.07)
Teras [26] Case‐control (nested) 1998–2007 USA Adults in a nutrition cohort 225 cases, 449 controls IgG VCA/EBNA‐1/EA‐D/ZEBRA NHL Medical records, cancer registry using ICD‐10 codes and WHO classifications Two or more antigens aOR 1.28 (0.67–2.47)
Trabert [68] Case‐control (nested) 1993–2010 Poland/USA Females newly diagnosed and population control/controls from control arm of a screening trial 404 cases and 715 controls Any antibody EBNA‐1/EA‐D/ZEBRA Ovarian Medical records, cancer registry

Poland aOR 0.86 (0.43–1.75)

USA aOR 0.90 (0.33–2.44)

Wang [69] Case‐control 1998–2002 USA Twin study 162 twin pairs IM NHL Self‐report aOR 0.35 (0.14–0.90)
Wrensch [70] Case‐control 1991–1995 USA Newly diagnosed adults and population controls 134 cases, 165 controls IgG (no specific antigen) Glioma Medical records aOR 0.6 (0.3–1.4)
Wrensch [71] Case‐control 1997–1999 USA Newly diagnosed adults and population controls 229 cases, 289 controls IgG VCA Glioma Medical records VCA aOR 0.82 (0.40–1.67)
Zhang [72] Case‐control 2008–2012 China Females with newly diagnosed cancer and females attending health check‐ups 671 cases, 859 controls DNA Breast Medical records, histologically confirmed DNA aOR 1.05 (0.81–1.37)

Abbreviations: ALL, acute lymphoblastic leukaemia; a, effect estimate controlling for confounding by age and sex either through matching, restriction of the participants, or adjustment; CI, 95% confidence interval; CLL, chronic lymphocytic leukaemia; EA‐D, early antigen diffuse; EBNA, EBV nuclear antigen; EBV, Epstein‐Barr virus; HL, Hodgkin lymphoma; HR, hazard (i.e., rate) ratio; IgG, immunoglobulin G; IM, infectious mononucleosis; MM, multiple myeloma; NHL, non‐Hodgkin lymphoma; OR, odds ratio; PLL, prolymphocytic leukaemia; RR, risk ratio; SIR, standardised incidence ratio; SLL, small lymphocytic lymphoma; VCA, viral capsid antigen; ZEBRA, BamHI Z EBV replication activator.

Appendix 3. Quality Assessment for the Cohort Studies

Modified Newcastle–Ottawa Scale scores for cohort studies included in the review, using criteria adapted from Deeks et al. [12].

First author Representativeness of the exposed cohort (1) Selection of the non‐exposed cohort (1) Ascertainment of the exposure (1) Outcome not present at start (1) Comparability of cohorts (2) Assessment of outcome (1) Follow‐up long enough (1) Adequacy of follow‐up (1) Appropriate statistical methods (1) Control of confounders (1)
Cai [21] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
Goldacre [31] 1 1 1 1 1 1 U U 1 1
Hjalgrim [58] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Koshiol [32] 0 1 1 1 U 1 1 U 1 1
Massa [62] 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
Roderburg [64] 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1

Abbreviation: U, unknown.

Appendix 4. Quality Assessment for the Case‐Control Studies

Modified Newcastle–Ottawa Scale scores for case–control studies included in the review, using criteria adapted from Deeks et al. [12].

First author Adequacy of case definition (1) Representativeness of the cases (1) Selection of controls (1) Definition of controls (1) Comparability of cases and controls (2) Ascertainment of exposure (1) Same method for cases and controls (1) Non‐response rate (1) Appropriate statistical methods (1) Control of confounders (1) Simultaneous ascertainment of exposure and outcome (−1)
Agborsangaya [54] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0
Akre [30] 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
Bertrand [22] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0
Coghill [55] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0
Cox [19] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0
Dagash [20] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 U 1 0 −1
De Roos [23] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0
de Sanjose [27] 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 U 1 1 0
Dillner [56] 1 1 1 U 1 1 1 U 1 1 0
Hakama [25] 1 1 1 1 2 1 U U 1 1 0
Heng [57] 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 −1
Kartsonaki [59] 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0
Lehtinen [60] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0
Mahjour [61] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 −1
Michos [28] 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 −1
Richardson [63] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
Richiardi [29] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0
Sawaya [65] 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 U 1 1 0
Schlehofer [24] 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 −1
Sjostrom [66] 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0
Steininger [67] 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 U 0 0 −1
Teras [26] 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0
Trabert [68] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
Wang [69] 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 U 1 1 0
Wrensch [70] 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 −1
Wrensch [71] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 0
Zhang [72] 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 U 1 1 −1

Abbreviation: U, unknown.

Appendix 5. Results from the GRADE Assessment

Results presented per hypothesis across the GRADE domains, including upgrading and downgrading criteria. Risk of bias, inconsistency, indirectness and imprecision were rated either very serious, serious, or not serious.

Hypothesis Risk of bias Inconsistency Indirectness Imprecision Large effect Dose response Confounding Overall rating No. of studies Study
EBV INFECTION
ALL Serious Serious Not serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 1 [61]
Breast Serious Serious Not serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 4 [19, 54, 63, 72]
Cervical Not serious Not serious Not serious Not serious 0 0 0 Low 2 [25, 56]
CLL/PLL/SLL Serious Very serious Very serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 3 [22, 23, 67]
DLBCL Not serious Very serious Very serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 2 [22, 23]
FL Not serious Serious Very serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 2 [22, 23]
Glioma Serious Not serious Not serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 4 [55, 66, 70, 71]
Leukaemia Serious Serious Not serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 1 [24]
Malignant neck mass Serious Not serious Not serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 1 [20]
NHL Serious Very serious Serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 7 [22, 23, 26, 27, 28, 29, 60]
Oesophageal Serious Not serious Not serious Serious 0 0 0 Very low 1 [59]
Ovarian Not serious Not serious Not serious Not serious 0 0 0 Low 1 [68]
Testicular Serious Not serious Not serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 1 [30]
IM
Breast Serious Serious Serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 5 [31, 57, 58, 62, 64]
Digestive Not serious Serious Serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 3 [31, 58, 64]
Female genital Not serious Not serious Serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 2 [58, 64]
Leukaemia Not serious Not serious Not serious Not serious 1 0 0 Low 2 [31, 58]
Lip/oral cavity/pharynx/buccal Not serious Not serious Serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 3 [31, 58, 64]
Lymphoid Not serious Not serious Serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 1 [64]
Male genital Not serious Not serious Not serious Not serious 0 0 0 Low 1 [58]
Malignant brain Not serious Not serious Not serious Serious 0 0 0 Very low 1 [31]
MM Not serious Not serious Not serious Serious 1 0 0 Low 2 [31, 58]
NHL Not serious Not serious Very serious Not serious 1 0 0 Low 4 [31, 32, 58, 69]
Other haematologic Not serious Not serious Not serious Serious 0 0 0 Very low 1 [21]
Prostate Not serious Not serious Very serious Not serious 1 0 0 Low 3 [31, 64, 65]
Rectum Not serious Not serious Not serious Serious 0 0 0 Very low 1 [31]
Respiratory Not serious Not serious Serious Serious 0 0 0 Very low 3 [31, 58, 64]
Skin Not serious Not serious Serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 3 [31, 58, 64]
Testicular Not serious Not serious Not serious Not serious 0 0 0 Low 1 [31]
Urinary tract Not serious Not serious Serious Not serious 0 0 0 Very low 3 [31, 58, 64]

Abbreviations: ALL, acute lymphoblastic leukaemia; CLL, chronic lymphocytic leukaemia; DLBCL, diffuse large B cell lymphoma; EBV, Epstein‐Barr virus; FL, follicular lymphoma; IM, infectious mononucleosis; MM, multiple myeloma; NHL, non‐Hodgkin lymphoma; PLL, prolymphocytic leukaemia; SLL, small lymphocytic lymphoma.

Appendix 6. Biological Plausibility

Summary of molecular studies assessing Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) detection in tumour tissue for advanced hypotheses, including detection method (PCR, ISH, IHC) and results.

Author Cancer subtype Where EBV samples were collected Cases Controls Highest number of EBV positive cases by any technique Was PCR performed? EBV positivity by PCR Was EBER ISH performed? EBV positivity by ISH Was IHC performed? EBV positivity by IHC Markers used to detect EBV by IHC All EBV detection markers used in study
Breast
Aboulkassim [73] Invasive, in situ Syria 108 0 56 of 108 Yes 56 of 108 No Yes Not reported LMP1 LMP1, EBNA1
Al Hamad [74] Invasive, in situ Jordan 100 50 24 of 100 Yes 24 of 100 Yes Not reported No EBNA2, EBER
Antonsson [75] Invasive, mixed, DCIS Australia 54 10 5 of 54 Yes 5 of 54 No No BALF5
Charostad [76] Invasive ductal, lobular Iran 51 51 6 of 51 Yes 6 of 51 No No EBNA1
Dowran [77] Invasive ductal, others Iran 150 150 0 of 150 Yes 0 of 150 No No BHRF1
El‐Naby [78] Invasive ductal Egypt 42 42 10 of 42 Yes 12 of 42 No Yes 10 of 42 LMP1 EBNA1, LMP1
Fessahaye [79] Invasive ductal, others Eritrea 144 63 40 of 144 Yes 40 of 144 Yes 5 of 14 Yes 7 of 45 LMP2 EBER, LMP1, LMP2
Glenn [80] Invasive ductal, in situ Australia 50 40 34 of 50 Yes 34 of 50 No Yes 3 of 10 EBNA1, LMP1 EBNA1, LMP1, LMP2
Gupta [81] Invasive ductal, invasive lobular, mucinous, unknown Qatar 74 0 36 of 74 Yes 36 of 74 No No EBNA1, LMP1
Hussein [82] Invasive, infiltrative, recurrent Iraq 22 10 11 of 22 No Yes 11 of 22 No EBER
Khabaz [83] Invasive ductal carcinoma, lobular, medullary, mucinous Jordan 92 49 24 of 92 Yes 24 of 92 No Yes 24 of 92 EBNA1 EBER2, EBNA1, EBNA2, LMP1, gp220
Metwally [84] Invasive ductal or lobular carcinoma Egypt 80 30 30 of 80 Yes 30 of 80 No No BamH1‐W region
Golrokh Mofrad [85] Invasive ductal, invasive lobular Iran 59 11 4 of 59 Yes 4 of 59 No No EBNA1
Mohammad‐izadeh [86] Ductal, other Iran 80 80 6 of 80 No No Yes 6 of 80 LMP1 LMP1
Morales‐Sanchez [87] Infiltrating ductal, in situ ductal, others Mexico 86 65 4 of 86 Yes 4 of 86 No No BamHI‐W region
Naushad [88] Invasive ductal, in situ, other Pakistan 250 15 61 of 250 Yes 61 of 250 No No EBNA2
Pai [89] Invasive ductal, metaplastic India 83 7 25 of 83 No Yes 25 of 83 No EBER
Reza [90] Invasive ductal carcinoma Iran 100 100 18 of 100 Yes 18 of 100 No No EBV DNA, EBER
Richardson [91] Infiltrating ductal carcinoma New Zealand 70 70 a 24 of 70 Yes 24 of 70 No No EBNA1
Sharifpour [92] Ductal Iran 37 35 10 of 37 Yes 10 of 37 No No EBNA3C
Torfi [93] Unspecified Iran 46 46 2 of 46 Yes 2 of 46 No No EBNA1
Yahia [94] Invasive ductal, invasive lobular, carcinoma in situ Sudan 92 50 a 49 of 92 Yes 49 of 92 Yes 18 of 18 No EBNA4, LMP1, EBER
Zekri [95] Primary invasive Egypt and Iraq 90 40 39 of 90 Yes 39 of 90 Yes 32 of 39 Yes 23 of 34 LMP1 EBER, EBNA1, LMP1
Cervical
Al‐Thawadi [96] Not reported Syria 44 0 15 of 44 Yes 15 of 44 No Yes Not reported LMP1 LMP1, EBNA1
Chavoshpour‐Mamaghani [97] Squamous cell and adenocarcinoma Iran 61 179 7 of 61 Yes 7 of 61 No No EBNA1, LMP1
Leukaemia and other haematologic
Guan [98] Acute leukaemia (ALL & AML) China 185 37 64 of 185 Yes 64 of 184 No No BamHI‐W region
Marin [99] Adult T‐cell leukaemia/lymphoma and NK‐cell lymphomas Argentina 22 0 9 of 22 No Yes 9 of 22 No EBER
Morales‐Sanchez [100] Paediatric ALL Mexico 70 0 10 of 70 b Yes 10 of 70 No No BamHI‐W region
Sehgal [101] ALL India 25 30 8 of 25 Yes 8 of 25 No No BamHI‐W region
Tarrand [102] CLL USA 135 98 19 of 135 Yes c 19 of 135 No No LMP1
Visco [103] CLL Italy 220 41 129 of 220 Yes 129 of 220 No No EBNA1
NHL
Abdelrahim [104] NHL of the oral/maxillofacial region Malaysia 14 0 0 of 14 No Yes 0 of 14 No EBER
Kim [105] Mixed NHL South Korea 80 0 20 of 80 No Yes 20 of 80 Yes 2 of 9 LMP1, EBNA2 EBER, LMP1, EBNA2
d'Amore [106] Mixed NHL Denmark 520 0 66 of 520 No Yes 66 of 520 Yes 17 of 65 LMP1 EBER1/2, BHLF, LMP1
Jaseela [107] Mixed NHL India 67 0 7 of 67 No No Yes 7 of 67 LMP1 LMP1
Noorali [108] T‐cell NHL Pakistan 92 0 51 of 92 Yes 51 of 92 Yes 33 of 51 No gp220, EBER1
Ohshima [109] B‐cell and T‐cell NHL (nodal) Japan 106 13 52 of 106 Yes 24 of 106 Yes 52 of 106 Yes 10 of 106 LMP1, EBNA2, vIL‐10 EBV‐W, EBER1, LMP1, EBNA2, BALF5
Prostate
Nahand [110] Acinar adenocarcinoma, ductal adenocarcinoma, squamous cell Iran 67 40 33 of 67 Yes 33 of 67 No No LMP1, LMP2, EBER1, EBER2, BALF5
Testicular
Fend [111] Classical seminoma, spermatocytic seminoma, mixed/non‐seminomatous Austria 21 5 4 of 21 Yes 4 of 21 Yes 2 of 4 d Yes 0 of 10 LMP1 EBER1/2, LMP1
Shimakage [112] Seminoma, embryonal carcinoma Japan 27 25 27 of 27 Yes 12 of 14 Yes 3 of 19 e Yes 8 of 9 EBNA2, LMP1 BamHI‐W, EBER, EBNA2, LMP1

Abbreviations: ALL, acute lymphoblastic leukaemia; AML, acute myeloid leukaemia; BALF5, BamHI‐A fragment containing the fifth leftward open reading frame; BamHI, a restriction enzyme derived from Bacillus amyloliquefaciens H; BHLF, BamHI H fragment leftward open reading frame; BHRF, BamHI H fragment rightward open reading frame; CLL, chronic lymphocytic leukaemia; DCIS, ductal carcinoma in situ; EBER, EBV‐encoded small RNAs; EBNA, EBV nuclear antigen; EBV, Epstein‐Barr virus; EBV‐W, EBV W region DNA; gp, glycoprotein; IHC, immunohistochemistry; IL, interleukin; ISH, in situ hybridisation; LMP, latent membrane protein; ML, malignant lymphoma; mT/NK, mature peripheral T‐cell and NK‐cell lymphomas; NASBA, nucleic acid sequence‐based amplification; NHL, non‐Hodgkin lymphoma; NK, natural killer; PCR, polymerase chain reaction; vIL, viral interleukin.

a

Study used paired cancerous and normal tissues from same individuals.

b

EBV only detected by nested PCR. Authors conclude this does not support a role for EBV in leukemagenesis.

c

Isothermal NASBA was used instead of PCR.

d

EBERs only detected in reactive lymphocytes, tumour cells were negative.

e

In house BamHI‐W ISH probe stained 27 of 27 tumour samples.

Appendix 7. Country‐by‐Country Age‐Standardised Incidence Rates of Cancers of Interest

Maps of the country‐by‐country incidence rates of the cancers of interest, where data were available from IHME. (a) ALL, (b) AML, (c) breast, (d) cervical, (e) CLL, (f) CML, (g) NHL, (h) other leukaemia, (i) prostate, (j) testicular. White indicates data not available. Breast cancer data are for males and females. Prostate, cervical and testicular estimates are single‐sex in both instances. ALL, acute lymphoblastic leukaemia; AML, acute myeloid leukaemia; ASIR, age standardised incidence rates per 100,000 person years; CLL, chronic lymphocytic leukaemia; CML, chronic myeloid leukaemia; IHME, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation; NHL, non‐Hodgkin lymphoma.

Appendix 7.

Data Availability Statement

The authors have nothing to report.

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