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. 2026 Apr 9;45:e70434. doi: 10.1002/sim.70434

Structure Identification, Estimation and Variable Selection for Varying Coefficient EV Models With Longitudinal Data

Mingtao Zhao 1, Jingxiang Cao 1, Jun Sun 1, Yan Fan 2, Sanying Feng 3, Fanqun Li 1,
PMCID: PMC13112365  PMID: 41956973

ABSTRACT

In this article, we propose a bias‐corrected double penalized quadratic inference functions method to simultaneously identify model structure, estimate parameters, and perform variable selection for varying coefficient errors‐in‐variables (EV) models with longitudinal data. Unlike the linear models or the partial linear varying coefficient models, the proposed method does not assume in advance whether each regression coefficient is constant or varying. Instead, it represents each coefficient as a nonparametric function and identifies whether it is constant or varying using the proposed method. By employing a B‐spline basis to approximate the unknown coefficient functions, the proposed method integrates a bias‐corrected quadratic inference function with two penalized terms to achieve structure identification, estimation, and variable selection. Under certain regularized conditions, the consistency and sparsity properties of the estimator are established. Moreover, a three‐step iterative algorithm is developed to implement the proposed method in practice. Simulation studies and a real data analysis demonstrate the superior finite‐sample performance of the method.

Keywords: bias‐corrected double penalized quadratic inference functions, longitudinal data, structure identification, variable selection, varying coefficient EV models

1. Introduction

Varying coefficient (VC) models extend the classical linear regression framework by treating each regression coefficient as a smoothing function, thus allowing covariate effects to evolve dynamically across longitudinal measurements. Their enhanced flexibility and interpretability have spurred considerable interest in recent longitudinal studies. A wide range of estimation techniques has been developed, including kernel methods [1, 2]; locally polynomial approaches [3]; least squares estimators [4]; and spline‐based methods [5, 6, 7]. In addition, Xue and Zhu [8] proposed an empirical likelihood‐based interval estimation method; Qu and Li [9] introduced a penalized quadratic inference functions (QIF) method for model estimation. Comprehensive reviews of VC models can be found in Fan and Zhang [10] and Park et al. [11].

Suppose longitudinal data {(Yij,Xij,tij):i=1,2,,n,j=1,2,,ni} satisfy the VC model

Yij=XijTα(tij)+εij,i=1,2,,n,j=1,2,,ni, (1)

where Yij is the response variable, Xijq represents the covariates at tij, and Xij=(Xij1,Xij2,,Xijq)T. The term εij denotes a zero‐mean stochastic process, and εij is independent of Xij. For each t, the coefficient vector α(t)=(α1(t),α2(t),,αq(t))T consists of some unknown smooth functions αk(t)(k=1,2,,q) defined on the interval t[0,1] with some scale transformation. Some moment assumptions are stated as E(Yij|Xij,tij)=μij and var(Yij|Xij,tij)=ν(μij), where ν(·) is a known variance function.

Previous studies often assume that covariates are measured without errors. However, in practice, obtaining precise measurements for some covariates is frequently challenging or difficult to achieve, which results in inevitable measurement errors or potential unobserved covariates. Neglecting these measurement errors can result in biased parameter estimates and misleading inferences. To address this issue, we extend model (1) by incorporating additive measurement errors in the covariates, resulting in the varying coefficient errors‐in‐variables (VCEV) model

Yij=XijTα(tij)+εij,Wij=Xij+uij,,i=1,2,,n,j=1,2,,ni, (2)

where Wij=(Wij1,Wij2,,Wijq)Tq represents the observed covariates, and uij=(uij1,uij2,,uijq)Tq denotes the zero‐mean measurement errors with a diagonal covariance matrix u. Additionally, we assume that cov(uij1,uij2)=0 for j1j2, the errors uij are mutually independent, and all uij are independent of (Xij,tij,εij), where cov(·) represents the covariance operator. To effectively account for measurement errors, supplementary information regarding u is required in practice, and it is typically assumed that u can be either estimated from the data or known in advance.

For model (2), Li and Greene [12] applied a locally corrected method to estimate the coefficient functions. Yang, Li and Peng [13] explored the empirical likelihood method for model (2) in the context of longitudinal data. For the VCEV models and partial linear varying coefficient EV (PLVCEV) models with longitudinal data, Zhao, Gao and Cui [14] and Zhao et al. [15] proposed a type of bias‐corrected penalized QIF method, which can handle measurement errors in covariates and within‐subject correlations simultaneously, estimate and select significant non‐zero parametric and nonparametric components. More studies about VCEV models with longitudinal data can be found in Zhao, Gao and Cui [14] and references therein, details are omitted here. Moreover, for structural change points in varying coefficient models, Zhao et al. [16] proposed the adaptive jump‐preserving (AJP) estimator. In the context of simultaneous measurement‐error correction and change‐point detection, Zhao et al. [17] developed the single‐index measurement error jump regression model. More studies about model (2) are omitted here.

Structure identification and variable selection [18, 19, 20] are of fundamental importance, as the validity of a fitted model and its subsequent inferences are critically dependent on the correctness of the specified structure. Linear models traditionally assume that all regression coefficients are constant; however, VC models generalize this concept by allowing the coefficients to be functions that vary over the domain. Building on this idea, partial linear varying coefficient (PLVC) models further distinguish between covariates by assuming that while some effects remain constant, others are set as varying functions in advance. In practice, arbitrarily designating which subset of variables should have constant versus varying effects on the response introduces a significant risk of model misspecification. Tang, Wang and Zhu [21]; Wang and Lin [22] and Xu et al. [23] have developed methodologies that consistently differentiate among varying coefficients, nonzero constant coefficients, and zero coefficients, in a manner that essentially achieves performance as if the true model structure and relevant variables were known a priori, thereby yielding robust selection outcomes in the analysis of longitudinal data. Inspired by Tang et al. [21], Xu et al. [23] and Wang and Lin [24], we propose a structure identification, estimation and variable selection approach based on the bias‐corrected double penalized quadratic inference functions (BCDPQIF), which is capable of addressing both measurement errors and within‐subject correlations, while accurately identifying the model structure. Additionally, by appropriately choosing tuning parameters, we provide a theoretical analysis of the consistency and sparsity properties of the proposed method.

The rest of this article is organized as follows. The BCDPQIF method and some theoretical results are stated in Section 2. Computational algorithm and selection of tuning parameters are presented in Section 3. Simulation studies and a real data analysis are performed to evaluate the proposed method in Section 4. Finally, we provide the conclusions and a discussion in Section 5. The derivation process of some equations, the proofs of theorems and some other numerical results are provided in Appendix A (Tables A1, A2, A3, A4).

2. Methodology and Main Results

2.1. Bias‐Corrected Double Penalized Quadratic Inference Functions Method

Following Wang and Lin [24], αk(t)(k=1,2,,q) can be represented approximately as

αk(t)=βk+ηk(t), (3)

where E(ηk(t))=0. Denote a B‐spline basis B(t)=(B1(t),B2(t),,BL(t))T with the order d, where L=K+d, K(>0) is the number of interior knots. The compact support and piecewise‐polynomial structure of B‐splines markedly reduce computational complexity, facilitating rapid model fitting even in high‐dimensional or large‐scale datasets. Additionally, B‐splines deliver superior flexibility and precision in coefficient function estimation, adeptly capturing localized features and complex functional patterns. Thus, ηk(t) can be approximated as

ηk(t)l=1LBl(t)γkl=B(t)Tγk, (4)

where γk=(γk1,γk2,,γkL)TL, k=1,2,,q, is a regression coefficient vector of B‐spline basis. Thus we can have

αk(t)βk+B(t)Tγk,k=1,2,,q. (5)

By replacing αk(t)(k=1,2,,q) by Equation (5), model (2) can be represented as

YijXijTβ+X˜ijTγ+εijWij=Xij+uijW˜ij=X˜ij+ũij,i=1,2,,n,j=1,2,,ni, (6)

where β=(β1,β2,,βq)T, γ=(γ1T,γ2T,,γqT)T, Bij=IqB(tij), X˜ij=BijXij, ũij=Bijuij, ũij=Bijuij, Iq is the q×q identity matrix. Then uij are independent of (Xij,tij,εij). E(uij)=0, cov(uij)=u, cov(uij1,uij2)=0 for j1j2.

We can obtain the following generalized estimating equations (GEE) about θ=(βT,γT)T as

i=1n(Wi,W˜i)TVi1(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)=0. (7)

Thus, we have

Ei=1n(Wi,W˜i)TVi1(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)=Ei=1n(Xi,X˜i)T+ui,ũiTVi1Yi((Xi,X˜i)+ui,ũi)θ=Ei=1n(Xi,X˜i)TVi1(Yi(Xi,X˜i)θ)+ui,ũiTVi1(Yi(Xi,X˜i)θ)(Xi,X˜i)TVi1ui,ũiθui,ũiTVi1ui,ũiθ=nEui,ũiTVi1ui,ũiθ0.

This demonstrates that Equation (7) is biased when θ0, which can not be used to obtain unbiased estimations. In order to overcome this drawback, we obtain an unbiased estimating equation by adding the term E(ui,ũi)TVi1(ui,ũi)θ. Accordingly, the bias‐corrected GEE for θ can be derived as

i=1n(Wi,W˜i)TVi1(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)+E(ui,ũi)TVi1(ui,ũi)θ=0, (8)

where Wi=(Wi1,Wi2,,Wini)T, W˜i=(W˜i1,W˜i2,,W˜ini)T, Yi=Yi1,Yi2,,YiniT, Vi is the covariance matrix of Yi. Then we take Vi as Vi=Ai1/2Ri(ρ)Ai1/2, where Ri(ρ) is a common working correlation matrix with a nuisance parameter ρ, Ai=diag(var(Yi1),var(Yi2),,var(Yini)). Liang and Zeger [25] stated that, in some simple cases, a consistent estimator for ρ may not exist, which could undermine the validity of the GEE method.

To overcome this limitation of the GEE, Qu, Lindsay and Li [26] proposed a QIF approach, assuming that Ri1(ρ)=κ=1saκMκ, where Mκ(κ=1,2,,s) are some known simple matrices and aκ(κ=1,2,,s) are some unknown constants. The QIF method treats aκ(κ=1,2,,s) as the nuisance parameters, and approximates Ri1(ρ) by a linear combination of a class of basis matrices as

Ri1(ρ)=κ=1saκMκ. (9)

One can see more details about Mκ(κ=1,2,,s) in Qu, Lindsay, and Li [26], which are omitted here. By substituting Ri1(ρ) into Equation (8), the resulting new bias‐corrected GEE is derived as

i=1n(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2κ=1saκMκAi1/2(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)+E(ui,ũi)TAi1/2κ=1saκMκAi1/2(ui,ũi)θ=0. (10)

Thus, following Qu, Lindsay and Li [26], one can define a bias‐corrected extended score function gn(θ) as

gn(θ)=1ni=1ngi(θ)=1ni=1n(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2M1Ai1/2(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)+Di(1)θ(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2M2Ai1/2(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)+Di(2)θ(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2MsAi1/2(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)+Di(s)θ,

where Di(κ)=E((ui,ũi)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(ui,ũi)),κ=1,2,,s. By some matrix calculations, we have

Di(κ)=trAi1/2MκAi1/2·uu11×nidiag(Ai1/2MκAi1/2)BiTu11×nidiag(Ai1/2MκAi1/2)BiTTuBidiag(Ai1/2MκAi1/2)BiT, (11)

where 11×ni=(1,1,,1)1×ni, Bi=(B(ti1),B(ti2),,B(tini)), diag(·) is a diagonal matrix operator. The detailed derivation process about Equation (11) can be found in Appendix A.

Since u is unknown, Di(κ) need to be estimated. Without loss of generality, we first consider a balanced longitudinal dataset, that is, ni=n0 (i=1,2,,n) and n0 is a fixed positive integer. Suppose Wij (j=1,2,,n0) can be observed mi times for each subject, with Wij(r)=Xij+uij(r), r=1,2,,mi. A consistent estimator for u can be computed as follows

^u=1nn0i=1nj=1n01mi1r=1mi(Wij(r)Wij)(Wij(r)Wij)T, (12)

where Wij=1mir=1miWij(r). It should be pointed out that for unbalanced longitudinal data, following the idea from Xue, Qu and Zhou [27], one can utilize cluster‐specific transformation matrices to reformat the data with an unbalanced cluster size, details are omitted here. Then one can get a consistent estimator D^i(κ) using the plug‐in method as

D^i(κ)=trAi1/2MκAi1/2·^u^u11×nidiag(Ai1/2MκAi1/2)BiT^u11×nidiag(Ai1/2MκAi1/2)BiTT^uBidiag(Ai1/2MκAi1/2)BiT. (13)

For the sake of simplicity, for both balanced and unbalanced data, we denote the estimators of u and Di(k) as ^u and D^i(k), respectively. Therefore, based on Equations (12) and (13), a consistent estimator g^n(θ) for gn(θ) can be obtained as

g^n(θ)=1ni=1nĝi(θ)=1ni=1n(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2M1Ai1/2(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)+D^i(1)θ(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2M2Ai1/2(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)+D^i(2)θ(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2MsAi1/2(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)+D^i(s)θ.

It is evident that the equation E(g^n(θ))=0 involves more equations than the number of parameters to be estimated, and will result in the over‐identified problem. As a result, it can not be directly used to estimate θ. Toovercome this problem, following Qu, Lindsay, and Li [26], we construct a bias‐corrected QIF (BCQIF) about θ as

Qn(θ)=ng^nT(θ)Ωn1g^n(θ), (14)

where Ωn=1ni=1nĝi((θ))ĝiT((θ)). The matrix Ωn is the sample covariance of the moment conditions and serves as the optimal weighting matrix in the GMM criterion. This choice guarantees the estimator's properties (Qu, Lindsay and Li [26]).

Then a BCQIF estimator θ˜ can be obtained as

θ˜=argminθQn(θ). (15)

As we know, the VCEV models assume that all the regression coefficients in the model are varying, the PLVCEV models presuppose that some of the regression coefficients in the model are constant while others are varying. All the regression coefficients in the linear EV models are set as all constants. However, these would expose us to the risk of assumptions in practice. Not only that, but the regression coefficients may also have zero coefficients. Therefore, the structure identification and variable selection of the model become very important and indispensable. To solve these problems, we propose the following BCDPQIF Qp(θ) to do structure identification, estimation and variable selection simultaneously for model (2), defined as

2.1. (16)

where γkH=(γkTHγk)1/2, and H=(hij)L×L,hij=01Bi(t)BjT(t)dt,k=1,2,,q. I(·) is an indicator function. λ1k,λ2k(k=1,2,,q) are some tuning parameters. pλ1k(·) and pλ2k(·) are the SCAD [18] penalty functions defined as

pλ(|w|)=λ|w|,|w|λ,(a21)λ2(|w|aλ)22(a1),λ<|w|aλ,12(a+1)λ2,|w|>aλ. (17)

where a=3.7. It should be noted that the penalty functions pλ1k(·) and pλ2k(·) here do not necessarily have to be the SCAD penalty function, one can use other penalty functions that we are familiar with, such as LASSO or MCP [19] penalty functions. In our work, we employ the SCAD penalty function to evaluate the proposed method.

Then the BCDPQIF estimator of θ=(βT,γT)T is given by

θ^=(β^T,γ^T)T=argminθQp(θ). (18)

Furthermore, the BCDPQIF estimators of αk(t)(k=1,2,,q) can be obtained by

α^k(t)=β^k+B(t)Tγ^k. (19)

Remark 1

Leveraging the SCAD penalty function's properties, the BCDPQIF method can identify, estimate and select the coefficient functions simultaneously. In Equation (16), the first penalty term, nk=1qpλ1kγkH, determines whether the functional component ηk(·) of αk(·) is zero or nonzero, thereby distinguishing varying coefficients from constant ones. For coefficients identified as constant, the second penalty term, nk=1qpλ2k|βk|IγkH=0, further evaluates whether they are zeros or not and selects the nonzero constant coefficients. As a result, the BCDPQIF method is more versatile because it does not require pre‐specifying whether a coefficient is constant or varying. Instead, it can identify both varying and constant coefficients, and simultaneously estimate and select the varying coefficients and the nonzero constant coefficients. This generality makes it applicable to a wide range of models, including the linear EV models, VCEV models and PLVCEV models.

2.2. Asymptotic Properties

First, we give some necessary notations. Let α0(·)=(α01(·),α02(·),,α0q(·))T be the real coefficients in model (2). Correspondingly, the real βk and ηk(t) are denoted as β0k and η0k(t) for k=1,2,,q, where α0k(t)=β0k+η0k(t). Let γ0k be the B‐spline regression coefficient corresponding to η0k(t). Denote β0=(β01,β02,,β0q)T, γ0=(γ01T,γ02T,,γ0qT)T. Without loss of generality, it is assumed that α0k(·)(k=1,2,,c) are nonzero constant coefficients, α0k(·)(k=c+1,c+2,,v) are varying coefficients, α0k(·)=0 for k=v+1,v+2,,q.

Denote 𝒞={1,2,,c},𝒱={c+1,c+2,,v},𝒵={v+1,v+2,,q}. k𝒞 implies that αk(·) is a nonzero constant, k𝒱 implies that αk(·) is a varying coefficient, and k𝒵 implies αk(·)=0. Using the BCDPQIF method, αk(·)(k=1,2,,q) can be classified into three categories, that is, varying coefficients, nonzero constant coefficients and zero coefficients. Denote α(𝒞)(·)=α1(·),α2(·),,αc(·)T and α(𝒱)(·)=αc+1(·),αc+2(·),,αv(·)T. The corresponding real functions of α(𝒞)(·) and α(𝒱)(·) are denoted as α0(𝒞)(·) and α0(𝒱)(·), respectively.

Some necessary regularity conditions for the asymptotic properties are stated as follows.

  • C1:

    0<ni< for i=1,2,,n.

  • C2:

    αk(t)(k=1,2,,q) are r th continuously differentiable on (0,1), and r2.

  • C3:

    unique θ0Θ satisfies E(g^nθ0)=o(1), where Θ is the parameter space.

  • C4:

    There exists an invertible matrix Ω0 s.t. Ωna.s.Ω0.

  • C5:

    supVi< and exists δ>0 s.t. supE{εi2+δ}<, Eui8<, Eũi8<, where · is the modulus of the largest singular values.

  • C6:

    Ai0, supiAi<.

  • C7:

    EXi4<, EX˜i4<, i=1,2,,n.

  • C8:

    Let interior knots {ωi,i=1,2,,K} of B(t) satisfy max1iKΔωi+1Δωi=o(K1) and Δωmax/Δωminc, where c0 is a constant, Δωmax=max1iKωi,Δωmin=min1iKωi, Δωi=ωiωi1, ω0=0, ωK+1=1.

  • C9:
    g^˙n(θ)=g^n(θ)θ exists and is continuous, and from the weak law of large numbers, when θ^pθ0, exists J0 s.t.
    limn1ni=1nE(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2M1Ai1/2(Xi,X˜i)(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2M2Ai1/2(Xi,X˜i)(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2MsAi1/2(Xi,X˜i)J0.
  • C10:

    Denote an=maxk|pλ1kβk0|,|pλ2kγ0kH|,β0k0,γ0k0, then an0 as n.

  • C11:
    pλ(t) satisfies
    liminfnliminfγkH0λ1k1pλ1kγkH>0,liminfnliminfβk0+λ2k1pλ2kβk>0,
    where k=v+1,v+2,,q.

Remark 2

These conditions are often used in the literatures for nonparametric and semi‐parametric statistical inference. C1 implies N=i=1nni=O(n). C2 is the smoothness condition about αk(t)(k=1,2,,q) and the necessary condition to study the convergence rate of B‐spline estimator. C4 and C9 can be easily obtained by the weak law of large numbers when n. C3, C5‐C7, C9 can be seen in Tian, Xue and Liu [28]. C8 is necessary for knots of B‐spline basis approximations Schumaker [29]. C10 and C11 can be seen in Tian, Xue and Liu [28]; Zhao and Xue [30] and Fan and Li [18].

Theorem 1

Assuming the conditions C1C11 hold and K=ON1/(2r+1), we have

α^k(·)αk(·)=ONr/(2r+1),k=1,2,,q.

Theorem 2

Assuming the conditions C1C10 hold, let λmax=maxkλ1k,λ2k and λmin=minkλ1k,λ2k , satisfy λmax0 and nr/(2r+1)·λmin . Then with probability tending to 1, we have

  • i.

    α^k(·)=β^k0,k𝒞;

  • ii.

    α^k(·)=0,k𝒵.

Theorem 3

Assuming the conditions C1C10 hold, and K=ON1/(2r+1) , we have

n(α^(𝒞)α0(𝒞))N(0,A1BA1),

where A and B are denoted in proof of theorem 3 in Appendix A, “denotes “convergence in distribution”.

Theorem 1 shows that the BCDPQIF estimators of varying coefficients have the optimal convergence rate, while Theorem 2 states that the BCDPQIF estimators of nonzero constant coefficients and varying coefficients have the sparse property. Theorems show that the BCDPQIF method possesses the oracle property.

3. Computational Algorithm and Selection of Tuning Parameters

3.1. Computational Algorithm

According to Equation (18), θ^ does not have an explicit form, meaning that we can only obtain a numerical approximation of θ^. First, observe that the first two derivatives of Qn(θ) are continuous. Therefore, around a given point θ(0), Qn(θ) can be approximated as

Qn(θ)Qn(θ(0))+Q˙n(θ(0))(θθ(0))+12(θθ(0))TQ¨n(θ(0))(θθ(0)).

where Q˙n(·) and Q¨n(·) represent the first and second derivatives of Qn(·) w.r.t. θ, respectively. According to the Qu, Lindsay and Li [9] we get

n1Q˙n(·)=2g^˙nTΩn1g^ngnTΩn1Ω˙Ωn1gn,n1Q¨n(·)=2g^˙nTΩng^˙n+Rn
Rn=2g^¨nTΩn1g^n4g^˙nTΩn1Ω˙nΩn1g^n+2g^nTΩn1Ωn1Ω˙nΩn1g^ng^nTΩn1Ω¨nΩn1g^n

Likewise, given an initial value t0, we have

pλ(|t|)pλ(|t0|)+12pλ(|t0|)|t0|(t2t02),tt0.

Therefore, apart from a constant, Qp(θ) can be represented by

Qp(θ)Qn(θ(0))+Q˙n(θ(0))T(θθ(0))+12(θθ(0))TQ¨n(θ(0))(θθ(0))+n2θTλ(θ(0))θ. (20)

where

λ(θ(0))=λ(β(0))00λ(γ(0))H,
λ(γ(0))=diagpλ11γ1(0)Hγ1(0)H,pλ11γ2(0)Hγ2(0)H,,pλ1qγq(0)Hγq(0)H,
λ(β(0))=diagpλ21β1(0)β1(0)I(γ1(0)H=0),pλ22β2(0)β2(0)I(γ2(0)H=0),,pλ2qβq(0)βq(0)I(γq(0)H=0).

To solve the problem of numerical solution, we propose a three‐step iterative computational algorithm as follows.

Step 1. This step first identifies varying and constant coefficients for each αk(·) for k=1,2,,q. It provides an initial partition of the coefficient space and reduces model complexity. Specifically, we define the Step 1 estimator θ^(1) as

θ^(1)=argminθQn(θ)+nk=1qpλ1kγkH. (21)

Through the minimization procedure (21), nonzero values of γkH are identified and selected; when γkH>0, the coefficient function αk(·) is identified as varying, whereas γkH=0 indicates it is constant.

Since θ^(1) lacks a closed‐form expression, we approximate it via the following iterative procedure

θ^(1)(m+1)=θ^(1)(m)Q¨nθ^(1)(m)+n(1)1Q˙nθ^(1)(m)+n(1)θ^(1)(m), (22)

where (1)=000λγ^(m)H,0=diag{01,02,,0q} and

λ(γ(m))=diagpλ11γ1(m)Hγ1(m)H,pλ12γ2(m)Hγ2(m)H,,pλ1qγq(m)Hγq(m)H. (23)

We initialize this iteration with θ˜ from Equation (15) and iterate Equation (22) until convergence to obtain the approximate solution θ^(1). This process effectively identifies whether each αk(·) is a varying or constant coefficient before proceeding to variable selection.

Step 2. Next, taking θ^(1) as an initial value, we refine the constant coefficients by selecting nonzero values. Specifically, we define

θ^(2)=argminθQnθ^(1)+nk=1qpλ2k|βk|. (24)

Similar to Step 1, θ^(2) also has no closed‐form solution, so we propose a iterative process in Step 2 as

θ^(2)(m+1)=θ^(2)(m)Q¨nθ^(2)(m)+n(2)1Q˙nθ^(2)(m)+n(2)θ^(2)(m), (25)

where (2)=λ(β^(m))000H and

λ(β^(m))=diagpλ21|β^1(m)||β^1(m)|Iγ^1(m)H=0,,pλ2q|β^q(m)||β^q(m)|Iγ^q(m)H=0.

Iterate Equation (25) until convergence to approximate θ^(2). This step focuses on eliminating uninformative constant coefficients while retaining those that are pertinent.

Step 3. Finally, we alternate between Steps 1 and 2 until overall convergence, arriving at the final estimator θ^. By iteratively identifying constant versus varying coefficients and selecting only the nonzero constants, this procedure yields a parsimonious yet flexible model that adapts to do structure identification, estimation and variable selection without requiring assumptions in advance.

3.2. Selection of Tuning Parameters

As is known to all, {λ1k,λ2k}k=1q are of vital importance for variable selection. They control the amount of penalties and determine the outcomes of structure identification and variable selection. However, the selection of {λ1k,λ2k}k=1q involves a very high computational complexity. To over this problem, in our work, we denote the adaptive tuning parameters λ1k and λ2k as

λ1k=λ1γ˜kH,λ2k=λ2|β^k|,

where γ˜k, for k=1,2,,q, are defined by Equation (15), and β^k corresponds to the solution θ^(1) obtained in Step 1. We can see that the adaptive tuning parameters has significantly reduced the computational complexity.

To obtain the optimal tuning parameters in Steps 1 and 2, we employ a BIC‐type criterion separately for each step, thereby balancing model fit and complexity. Specifically, in Step 1, we determine the optimal λ^1 via

BIC1(λ)=Qnθ^(1)+dfλ1klog(n),λ^1=argminλBIC1(λ), (26)

where dfλ1k=k=1qI(γkH0). This quantity dfλ1k counts the number of nonzero varying coefficients and thus penalizes more complex models. Similarly, in Step 2 we use an analogous BIC‐type criterion to obtain the optimal λ^2:

BIC2(λ)=Qnθ^(2)+dfλ2klog(n),λ^2=argminλBIC2(λ), (27)

where dfλ2k=k=1qI(|βk|I(γkH=0)0). Hence, dfλ2k counts only those nonzero constant coefficients that contribute to the model when the corresponding varying components are zero. By explicitly penalizing the inclusion of additional parameters, the BIC‐type criteria help select tuning parameters that yield a parsimonious yet informative model.

4. Numerical Studies

4.1. Simulations Studies

We perform some numerical simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed method in finite samples. The performance of estimator α^(𝒞) in the simulation will be assessed by using the generalized mean square error (GMSE) [28], which is defined as

GMSE=α^(𝒞)α0(𝒞)TEX(𝒞)(X(𝒞))Tα^(𝒞)α0(𝒞), (28)

where α^(𝒞)=(β^1,β^2,,β^c)T. The performance of estimator α^(𝒱) in the simulation will be assessed by using the square root of average square errors (RASE) [28]

RASE=1Mm=1Mk=c+1vα^ktmα0ktm21/2. (29)

where tm(m=1,2,,M) are grid points at which α^ktm is evaluated. A smaller RASE or GMSE signifies higher estimation accuracy, indicating that α^(·) is closer to the true value α(·). In our simulations, grid points were equally spaced on [0,1] and M=200.

In order to assess the performance of structure identification, estimation and variable selection, we give some denotations. Let “CZ” denote the average number of correctly identified zero coefficients; “IZ” represent the average number of nonzero coefficients incorrectly identified as zero; “CV” denote the average number of correctly identified varying coefficients; “IV” represent the average number of non‐varying coefficients incorrectly identified as varying; “CC” denote the average number of correctly identified constant coefficients; and “IC” represent the average number of non‐constant coefficients incorrectly identified as constant. “CF” represents the percentage of simulations in which the true model structure was correctly identified. Smaller values of IZ, IV, and IC, along with values of CZ, CV, and CC closer to the true model, indicate better performance in structure identification and selection. A lower GMSE or RASE indicates better estimation accuracy, implying that α^(·) is closer to the true parameter function α0(·) on average.

Suppose that the real model (2) satisfies 𝒞={1,2},𝒱={3,4,5},𝒵={6,7,8} and

α(𝒞)(t)=(α1(t),α2(t))=(5,6),α(𝒱)(t)=(α3(t),α4(t),α5(t))=(0.4·e2t1,sin(πt),0.1·(22t)3),α(𝒵)(t)=(α6(t),α7(t),α8(t))=(0,0,0).

We took XijN(8,σX2I8),uijN(0,σu2I8), where j= 1,2,,8,σX=8,I8 is 8×8 identifymatrix. We set σu as 0.2,0.4,0.6. tijU[0,1]. εi=εi1,εi2,,εiniTN0,σ2Corrεi,ρ, where σ2=1 and Corrεi,ρ is a known correlation matrix with parameter ρ. Thus, we can get Ai=diag(1,1,,1). In our work, we set n=300,350,400, ni=10,20 and εi has the first‐order autoregressive (AR(1)) and exchangeable (EX) correlation structures with ρ=0.3,0.7. The cubic B‐spline basis was applied with the knots being equally spaced in [0,1],K=c0×N1/5, where c0 denotes the largest integer less than c0. Following Tian, Xue and Liu [28], we choose c0=0.4.

For each simulated longitudinal data, we compared the BCDPQIF method with the LASSO, MCP and the SCAD penalty functions and the one neglecting measurement errors with SCAD penalty function, denoted as BCDPQIF‐LASSO, BCDPQIF‐MCP, BCDPQIF‐SCAD and BCDPQIF‐nSCAD, respectively. For the sake of simplicity, BCDPQIF‐LASSO, BCDPQIF‐MCP, BCDPQIF‐SCAD and BCDPQIF‐nSCAD are denoted by “LASSO”, “MCP”, “SCAD” and “nSCAD” in the following tables respectively. λ^1k,λ^2k(k=1,2,,q) were selected by Equations (26) and (27).

Among them, Tables 1 and 3 show the model estimation results of longitudinal data with EX correlation structures under different ni; while Tables 2 and 4 show the structure identification and variable selection results of longitudinal data with AR(1) correlation structures under different ni. Tables 5 and 7 continue this analysis for the EX correlation structures with under different ni; Tables 6 and 8 present the corresponding results for the AR(1) correlation structures, following the same organization but focusing on different and parameter combinations.

TABLE 1.

Model estimation with the EX correlation structure (ni=10).

n=300
n=350
n=400
ρ
σu
Method GMSE RASE GMSE RASE GMSE RASE
0.3 0.2 LASSO 0.006310 0.020265 0.005318 0.018661 0.004500 0.017346
MCP 0.005170 0.020117 0.004126 0.018650 0.003502 0.017217
SCAD 0.005350 0.020085 0.004272 0.018533 0.003607 0.017198
nSCAD 0.007214 0.020461 0.006025 0.018826 0.005227 0.017122
0.4 LASSO 0.021447 0.034504 0.022946 0.031387 0.022236 0.029445
MCP 0.013685 0.033768 0.013808 0.030912 0.011439 0.028973
SCAD 0.014983 0.033763 0.014196 0.031039 0.012539 0.028929
nSCAD 0.036712 0.035110 0.038602 0.031825 0.034361 0.030109
0.6 LASSO 0.067761 0.050695 0.061829 0.046198 0.062955 0.043836
MCP 0.033222 0.049347 0.025128 0.044601 0.022594 0.041510
SCAD 0.034123 0.049820 0.027653 0.044584 0.023667 0.041760
nSCAD 0.143232 0.053116 0.120532 0.047648 0.129252 0.044608
0.7 0.2 LASSO 0.005144 0.018004 0.004381 0.017552 0.003754 0.017102
MCP 0.004269 0.017916 0.003456 0.017511 0.002752 0.017053
SCAD 0.004457 0.017971 0.003609 0.017524 0.002794 0.017049
nSCAD 0.006139 0.017992 0.004973 0.017827 0.004717 0.017225
0.4 LASSO 0.022754 0.030121 0.024283 0.031665 0.020305 0.028867
MCP 0.014025 0.029910 0.014666 0.031067 0.011411 0.028234
SCAD 0.015138 0.029797 0.014507 0.030956 0.011690 0.028112
nSCAD 0.036937 0.030407 0.037578 0.031802 0.033961 0.028730
0.6 LASSO 0.079412 0.045530 0.067183 0.046290 0.063914 0.042990
MCP 0.033737 0.044692 0.028633 0.044774 0.025319 0.041379
SCAD 0.034388 0.044384 0.030047 0.044629 0.025696 0.041235
nSCAD 0.144105 0.046027 0.130574 0.047405 0.126245 0.043912

TABLE 3.

Model estimation with the EX correlation structure (ni=20).

n=300
n=350
n=400
ρ
σu
Method GMSE RASE GMSE RASE GMSE RASE
0.3 0.2 LASSO 0.002549 0.014618 0.002126 0.012966 0.001890 0.012367
MCP 0.002203 0.014552 0.002022 0.012872 0.001506 0.012342
SCAD 0.002390 0.014589 0.002042 0.012890 0.001584 0.012278
nSCAD 0.004089 0.014739 0.003274 0.013051 0.003253 0.012508
0.4 LASSO 0.010233 0.024553 0.009077 0.022487 0.007610 0.021105
MCP 0.007098 0.024214 0.006204 0.022208 0.005311 0.020843
SCAD 0.007654 0.024516 0.006359 0.022315 0.005350 0.020757
nSCAD 0.031571 0.025823 0.029056 0.023655 0.027567 0.022327
0.6 LASSO 0.026446 0.034791 0.025621 0.032215 0.022216 0.030112
MCP 0.015586 0.033946 0.013372 0.031520 0.011238 0.029165
SCAD 0.016384 0.034301 0.014309 0.031568 0.011855 0.029246
nSCAD 0.127600 0.038364 0.124034 0.036174 0.115740 0.033771
0.7 0.2 LASSO 0.011945 0.021913 0.002154 0.012708 0.001604 0.011912
MCP 0.009801 0.021855 0.001838 0.012687 0.001377 0.011901
SCAD 0.009734 0.021733 0.001872 0.012659 0.001403 0.011876
nSCAD 0.031744 0.022608 0.004244 0.012763 0.003275 0.012015
0.4 LASSO 0.010903 0.024006 0.008541 0.021701 0.008329 0.020267
MCP 0.008149 0.024126 0.005660 0.021320 0.005311 0.020045
SCAD 0.008548 0.024027 0.005942 0.021531 0.005358 0.020022
nSCAD 0.032437 0.024605 0.030968 0.022312 0.029802 0.021041
0.6 LASSO 0.022386 0.035063 0.024778 0.031569 0.021510 0.030168
MCP 0.015425 0.034393 0.014333 0.031084 0.010042 0.029233
SCAD 0.017002 0.034705 0.014282 0.030983 0.010343 0.029355
nSCAD 0.114663 0.037800 0.124042 0.034664 0.120750 0.034191

TABLE 2.

Model estimation with the AR(1) correlation structure (ni=10).

n=300
n=350
n=400
ρ
σu
Method GMSE RASE GMSE RASE GMSE RASE
0.3 0.2 LASSO 0.005067 0.020788 0.004916 0.018783 0.004804 0.017505
MCP 0.004491 0.020572 0.004093 0.018768 0.003825 0.017414
SCAD 0.004634 0.020750 0.004196 0.018769 0.003833 0.017394
nSCAD 0.005291 0.020818 0.005076 0.018990 0.004946 0.017501
0.4 LASSO 0.024966 0.034666 0.020821 0.032083 0.020043 0.030934
MCP 0.015624 0.034262 0.012613 0.031646 0.011056 0.030374
SCAD 0.015726 0.034356 0.013997 0.031824 0.011561 0.030416
nSCAD 0.037888 0.035410 0.031702 0.031750 0.030249 0.031064
0.6 LASSO 0.076168 0.051224 0.071597 0.046558 0.064740 0.043943
MCP 0.032306 0.049338 0.026233 0.044643 0.023371 0.042344
SCAD 0.032083 0.049692 0.027803 0.044845 0.024317 0.042389
nSCAD 0.142457 0.052199 0.133610 0.048358 0.112066 0.045093
0.7 0.2 LASSO 0.006348 0.020563 0.004656 0.018560 0.003374 0.017292
MCP 0.005043 0.020318 0.003572 0.018437 0.002682 0.017168
SCAD 0.005124 0.020370 0.003710 0.018446 0.002878 0.017186
nSCAD 0.007161 0.020453 0.004955 0.018410 0.003912 0.017337
0.4 LASSO 0.022236 0.034752 0.021721 0.031719 0.021380 0.030122
MCP 0.015580 0.034360 0.012842 0.031043 0.011394 0.029633
SCAD 0.017398 0.034046 0.013235 0.030967 0.011727 0.029443
nSCAD 0.035691 0.035031 0.032769 0.032387 0.033609 0.030349
0.6 LASSO 0.062320 0.050684 0.073482 0.045768 0.065321 0.045198
MCP 0.029349 0.049476 0.029730 0.043799 0.020605 0.043522
SCAD 0.030288 0.050020 0.031292 0.043488 0.020856 0.043477
nSCAD 0.133572 0.050931 0.124449 0.046314 0.120049 0.045432

TABLE 4.

Model estimation with the AR(1) correlation structure (ni=20).

n=300
n=350
n=400
ρ
σu
Method GMSE RASE GMSE RASE GMSE RASE
0.3 0.2 LASSO 0.003031 0.014615 0.002251 0.013376 0.002001 0.012555
MCP 0.002757 0.014560 0.002151 0.013237 0.001696 0.012479
SCAD 0.002769 0.014623 0.002149 0.013293 0.001736 0.012396
nSCAD 0.004133 0.014716 0.003351 0.013513 0.003169 0.012532
0.4 LASSO 0.008171 0.023962 0.008643 0.023011 0.007514 0.021520
MCP 0.006882 0.023678 0.006250 0.022543 0.005167 0.021042
SCAD 0.007213 0.023850 0.006275 0.022768 0.005229 0.021094
nSCAD 0.025199 0.025266 0.026554 0.024029 0.025662 0.022530
0.6 LASSO 0.026435 0.035735 0.024354 0.032726 0.022199 0.029838
MCP 0.017692 0.035287 0.013702 0.032172 0.012334 0.029107
SCAD 0.018006 0.035391 0.013737 0.031987 0.012320 0.029036
nSCAD 0.118056 0.038565 0.112571 0.036187 0.111787 0.033875
0.7 0.2 LASSO 0.002589 0.014614 0.002075 0.013225 0.001798 0.012293
MCP 0.002230 0.014582 0.001883 0.013104 0.001592 0.012196
SCAD 0.002253 0.014590 0.001872 0.013095 0.001635 0.012196
nSCAD 0.003952 0.014572 0.003295 0.013263 0.003026 0.012375
0.4 LASSO 0.009626 0.024461 0.008094 0.022350 0.006898 0.020712
MCP 0.007010 0.024280 0.006497 0.022211 0.005155 0.020495
SCAD 0.007257 0.024291 0.006661 0.022158 0.005165 0.020371
nSCAD 0.029485 0.025269 0.024169 0.023269 0.024452 0.021766
0.6 LASSO 0.026455 0.035658 0.023275 0.032126 0.022329 0.029903
MCP 0.016085 0.034704 0.012669 0.031518 0.011182 0.028931
SCAD 0.017075 0.034907 0.013049 0.031266 0.010934 0.028944
nSCAD 0.117351 0.039046 0.117707 0.035933 0.117497 0.033745

TABLE 5.

Structure identification and variable selection with the EX correlation structure (ni=10).

Structure identification and variable selection
ρ
σu
n
Method CZ IZ CV IV CC IC CF
0.3 0.2 300 LASSO 2.8400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1600 0.8650
MCP 2.8100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1900 0.8450
SCAD 2.8850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1150 0.9100
nSCAD 2.7850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2150 0.8200
350 LASSO 2.8800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1200 0.9000
MCP 2.8450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1550 0.8750
SCAD 2.9050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0950 0.9250
nSCAD 2.8450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1550 0.8700
400 LASSO 2.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.8900
MCP 2.8800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1200 0.8900
SCAD 2.9300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0700 0.9400
nSCAD 2.8350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1650 0.8600
0.4 300 LASSO 2.5700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4300 0.6400
MCP 2.5750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4250 0.6400
SCAD 2.8400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1600 0.8700
nSCAD 2.5150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4850 0.5900
350 LASSO 2.8000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2000 0.8400
MCP 2.7450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2550 0.7850
SCAD 2.8650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1350 0.8950
nSCAD 2.7550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2450 0.7850
400 LASSO 2.8750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1250 0.8950
MCP 2.8450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1550 0.8550
SCAD 2.9250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0750 0.9300
nSCAD 2.7650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2350 0.7950
0.6 300 LASSO 2.4500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5500 0.5350
MCP 2.3850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.6150 0.5150
SCAD 2.7950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2050 0.8250
nSCAD 2.3150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.6850 0.4750
350 LASSO 2.6100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3900 0.6650
MCP 2.6300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3700 0.6750
SCAD 2.8150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1850 0.8400
nSCAD 2.4250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5750 0.5550
400 LASSO 2.6800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3200 0.7150
MCP 2.6450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3550 0.7000
SCAD 2.8500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1500 0.8700
nSCAD 2.5350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4650 0.6350

TABLE 7.

Structure identification and variable selection with the EX correlation structure (ni=20).

Structure identification and variable selection
ρ
σu
n
Method CZ IZ CV IV CC IC CF
0.3 0.2 300 LASSO 2.8950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1050 0.9150
MCP 2.8650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1350 0.8900
SCAD 2.9350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0650 0.9450
nSCAD 2.9050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0950 0.9250
350 LASSO 2.9100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0900 0.9250
MCP 2.8900 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1100 0.9000
SCAD 2.9800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0200 0.9850
nSCAD 2.8500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1500 0.8850
400 LASSO 2.9450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0550 0.9500
MCP 2.9400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0600 0.9450
SCAD 2.9950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0050 0.9950
nSCAD 2.9250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0750 0.9350
0.4 300 LASSO 2.8100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1900 0.8450
MCP 2.8100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1900 0.8500
SCAD 2.9000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1000 0.9200
nSCAD 2.6250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3750 0.6600
350 LASSO 2.8700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1300 0.8850
MCP 2.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.8750
SCAD 2.9200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0800 0.9300
nSCAD 2.7300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2700 0.7800
400 LASSO 2.9200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0800 0.9250
MCP 2.8750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1250 0.8850
SCAD 2.9300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0700 0.9350
nSCAD 2.8050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1950 0.8350
0.6 300 LASSO 2.8050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1950 0.8150
MCP 2.7850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2150 0.7950
SCAD 2.9000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1000 0.9100
nSCAD 2.5550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4450 0.6350
350 LASSO 2.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.8700
MCP 2.8550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1450 0.8650
SCAD 2.9150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0850 0.9250
nSCAD 2.5750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4250 0.6550
400 LASSO 2.9000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1000 0.9050
MCP 2.8050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1950 0.8300
SCAD 2.8950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1050 0.9050
nSCAD 2.6350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3650 0.6800

TABLE 6.

Structure identification and variable selection with the AR(1) correlation structure (ni=10).

Structure identification and variable selection
ρ
σu
n
Method CZ IZ CV IV CC IC CF
0.3 0.2 300 LASSO 2.6800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3200 0.7350
MCP 2.6600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3400 0.7150
SCAD 2.6600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3400 0.7000
nSCAD 2.6550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3450 0.6950
350 LASSO 2.7400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2600 0.7650
MCP 2.7150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2850 0.7550
SCAD 2.8950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1050 0.9050
nSCAD 2.6950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3050 0.7350
400 LASSO 2.8700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1300 0.8850
MCP 2.8450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1550 0.8800
SCAD 2.9150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0850 0.9150
nSCAD 2.8900 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1100 0.9050
0.4 300 LASSO 2.6050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3950 0.6650
MCP 2.5800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4200 0.6350
SCAD 2.6250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3750 0.6700
nSCAD 2.4950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5050 0.5750
350 LASSO 2.6850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3150 0.7000
MCP 2.6800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3200 0.7150
SCAD 2.8100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1900 0.8300
nSCAD 2.5850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4150 0.6400
400 LASSO 2.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.8800
MCP 2.8050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1950 0.8400
SCAD 2.8400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1600 0.8600
nSCAD 2.7100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2900 0.7650
0.6 300 LASSO 2.5600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4400 0.6150
MCP 2.4950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5050 0.5700
SCAD 2.5200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4800 0.5950
nSCAD 2.4050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5950 0.5100
350 LASSO 2.6250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3750 0.6750
MCP 2.5550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4450 0.6100
SCAD 2.6150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3850 0.6650
nSCAD 2.4750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5250 0.5500
400 LASSO 2.7450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2550 0.7900
MCP 2.7700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2300 0.7850
SCAD 2.7800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2200 0.8100
nSCAD 2.6000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4000 0.6650

TABLE 8.

Structure identification and variable selection with the AR(1) correlation structure (ni=20).

Structure identification and variable selection
ρ
σu
n
Method CZ IZ CV IV CC IC CF
0.3 0.2 300 LASSO 2.8050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1950 0.8450
MCP 2.8150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1850 0.8500
SCAD 2.8500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1500 0.8700
nSCAD 2.7700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2300 0.8100
350 LASSO 2.9150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0850 0.9250
MCP 2.8750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1250 0.9100
SCAD 2.9500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0500 0.9500
nSCAD 2.7600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2400 0.8250
400 LASSO 2.9250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0750 0.9300
MCP 2.8950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1050 0.9100
SCAD 2.9950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0050 0.9950
nSCAD 2.9100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0900 0.9150
0.4 300 LASSO 2.8150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1850 0.8350
MCP 2.7750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2250 0.8050
SCAD 2.8300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1700 0.8500
nSCAD 2.6550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3450 0.6900
350 LASSO 2.8250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1750 0.8550
MCP 2.7850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2150 0.8300
SCAD 2.8900 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1100 0.9050
nSCAD 2.6900 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3100 0.7350
400 LASSO 2.8700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1300 0.8800
MCP 2.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.8800
SCAD 2.9100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0900 0.9200
nSCAD 2.7500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2500 0.7950
0.6 300 LASSO 2.7550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2450 0.7850
MCP 2.7300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2700 0.7600
SCAD 2.7850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2150 0.8050
nSCAD 2.5600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4400 0.6650
350 LASSO 2.8250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1750 0.8400
MCP 2.7900 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2100 0.8050
SCAD 2.7950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2050 0.8100
nSCAD 2.6150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3850 0.6600
400 LASSO 2.8450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1550 0.8700
MCP 2.8250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1750 0.8350
SCAD 2.8750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1250 0.8950
nSCAD 2.6350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3650 0.6900

For completeness, any additional or more detailed tables not included in the main text are provided in Appendix A, ensuring that all results are fully documented and reproducible. In our work, we have included simulation results for higher dimensional settings (q=20,50) in Appendix A, and the conclusions in these higher dimensional scenarios coincide with those presented in the main text. In summary, from Tables 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, we can draw the following conclusions.

  • 1.

    In the vast majority of experimental scenarios, the estimation accuracies of BCDPQIF‐LASSO, BCDPQIF‐SCAD, and BCDPQIF‐MCP consistently surpasses that of BCDPQIF‐nSCAD, thereby demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed bias‐corrected strategy. Overall, the four methods exhibit comparable good performances in structure identification. Moreover, neglecting measurement errors results in biased estimation for model (2).

  • 2.

    Under same conditions, as both the sample size and the number of observations increase, the performances of BCDPQIF‐SCAD, BCDPQIF‐MCP, and BCDPQIF‐LASSO improve. Notably, BCDPQIF‐SCAD and BCDPQIF‐MCP generally outperform BCDPQIF‐LASSO when estimating varying coefficients.

  • 3.

    Similarly, as the magnitude of measurement errors increases, the performances of BCDPQIF‐SCAD, BCDPQIF‐MCP, and BCDPQIF‐LASSO deteriorate under the same conditions. When measurement errors are small, the performance differences among these methods are minimal; however, when measurement errors become substantial, BCDPQIF‐SCAD and BCDPQIF‐MCP significantly outperform BCDPQIF‐LASSO, indicating that BCDPQIF‐LASSO is less robust than BCDPQIF‐SCAD and BCDPQIF‐MCP.

Overall, these numerical study results have confirmed that the proposed method make sense, which is manifested in the dealing with measurement errors and within‐subject correlations, structural identification, estimation and variable selection.

4.2. Real Data Analysis

We now apply the proposed BCDPQIF method to data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, comprising 283 homosexual men infected with HIV between 1984 and 1991. This dataset has been widely used to illustrate VC models [5]; VCEV models [31] and PLVCEVM [15]. Because CD4 cells are crucial for immune function, the study focused on how risk factors—such as cigarette smoking, drug use, and pre‐infection CD4 cell levels—influence the post‐infection depletion of CD4 percentages. Previous analyses aimed to describe the trend of mean CD4 depletion over time and to evaluate the effects of pre‐infection CD4 percentage and age at HIV infection. In our application, we account for measurement errors in the covariates and demonstrate the utility of the BCDPQIF method on this dataset.

Let Y be the individual's CD4 percentage, X1 be the centered preCD4 percentage, X2 be the centered age at HIV infection, X3=X1·X2, X4=X12 and X5=X22. Then we consider the following model

Y=α0(t)+X1α1(t)+X2α2(t)+X3α3(t)+X4α4(t)+X5α5(t)+ε (30)

where α0(t) is the baseline of CD4 percentage; α1(t) and α2(t) describe the effects of preCD4 percentage and age at HIV infection, two covariates that, in clinical practice, are particularly prone to measurement error (due to laboratory assay variability and patient recall), α3(t) describes the interaction effect between the preCD4 percentage and age at HIV infection, α4(t) and α5(t) correspond to the X12 and X22 terms, respectively, capturing the quadratic effects of pre‐infection CD4 percentage and age at HIV infection. t is the visiting time for each patient.

In this application, we considered observations of the pre‐infection CD4 percentage and age may contain measurement errors. The validity of the BCDPQIF method was verified by adding some measurement errors to the covariates, that is,

W1=X1+u1,W2=X2+u2

where u1,u2TN0,u,u=σu2I2. We took σu=0, which assumes no measurement error. 0.4 and 0.6 represent different levels of measurement errors.

The BCDPQIF identified one varying coefficient α0(t). Figure 1 shows the curve of α^0(t) over time under different measurement errors. It shows that α0(t) decreases quickly at the beginning of HIV infection, and the rate of decrease slows down, which is similar to Zhao and Xue [31]. Furthermore, we found that the estimated functional curve α^1(t) under different measurement errors are very close to each other, which means that our bias‐corrected model selection scheme works well. This further demonstrates that the proposed model structure identification, estimation and variable selection method is valuable practically.

FIGURE 1.

FIGURE 1

The fitted plot of the BCDPQIF estimation α^0(t).

5. Conclusion and Discussion

In this article, combining the merits of Xu et al. [23] and Wang and Lin [24], we proposed a BCDPQIF for varying coefficient EV models with longitudinal data. Xu et al. [23] focused on a unified variable selection for longitudinal varying coefficient models, and Wang and Lin [24] conducted research on generalized partial linear varying coefficient models with longitudinal data. Notably, their approaches can do structure identification and variable selection simultaneously. However, they do not take into account the situation where the model contains measurement errors. It is worth noting that measurement errors are inevitable in practice. Especially for longitudinal data, both measurement errors and unknown working correlation matrices need to be handled appropriately. And precisely for this reason, we aim to study the structure identification, estimation and variable selection of the VCEV models with longitudinal data.

It is important to highlight that the VCEV models discussed here fall under a broad category of models, which includes both the linear EV models and the PLVCEV models. The proposed BCDPQIF method can identify the model structure, estimation and variable selection simultaneously for these models. To be precise, the BCDPQIF method can not onlyhandle measurement errors and unknown within subject correlations, but also identify whether the regression coefficients in the model are constant or varying coefficients, and select out the nonzero constant coefficients. This means that the BCDPQIF method avoids the assumption risks of the linear EV models, VCEV models and PLVCEV models. Theoretical and numerical results confirm that this method makes sense.

Furthermore, the BCDPQIF method is versatile and can be extended to structure identification, estimation and variable selection in a variety of models, including the additive models and the single‐index varying coefficient models, among others. Additionally, the BCDPQIF method is applicable to other forms of correlated data analysis, such as panel data and clustered data. In future work, we plan to use this method to investigate more complex modeling frameworks.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 12371293 and 12401373), the University Social Science Research Project of Anhui Province (Nos. 2022AH050560, 2023AH010008, 2023AH050203, 2024AH050013, and 2024AH050015), the Social Science Foundation of Anhui Province (Nos. AHSKYQ2025D17 and AHSKF2022D08), the Social Science Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China (Nos. 24YJAZH146 and 21YJC910003), the National Social Science Foundation of China (No. 23BTJ061), the University Natural Science Research Project of Anhui Province (Nos. 2024AH050015, KJ2021A0486 and 2024AH050017), Innovation Team Project of Anhui Province (2023AH010008), Postgraduate Education Reform and Quality Improvement Project of Henan Province (YJS2026AL016).

Appendix A.

Derivation Process of Di(κ)

Di(κ)=trAi1/2MκAi1/2·uu11×nidiag(Ai1/2MκAi1/2)BiTu11×nidiag(Ai1/2MκAi1/2)BiTTuBidiag(Ai1/2MκAi1/2)BiT.

First, we know that

Bij=IqB(tij)=B(tij)000B(tij)000B(tij)qL×q,ũij=B(tij)uij1B(tij)uij2B(tij)uijqqL×1,

and

ũi=(ũi1,ũi2,,ũini)T=ui11BT(ti1)ui12BT(ti1)ui1qBT(ti1)ui21BT(ti2)ui22BT(ti2)ui2qBT(ti2)uini1BT(tini)uini2BT(tini)uiniqBT(tini)ni×qL.

For simplicity, we define the matrix ζκ as

ζκ=Ai1/2MκAi1/2=ι11κι12κι1niκι21κι22κι2niκιni1κιni2κιniniκ.

Then, Di(κ) can be reexpressed as follows

Di(κ)=E((ui,ũi)Tζκ(ui,ũi))=E(uiTζκui)E(uiTζκũi)E(ũiTζκui)E(ũiTζκũi).

After some matrix calculations, we can have

E(uiζκuiT)=Eui1,ui2,,uiniι11κι12κι1niκι21κι22κι2niκιni1κιni2κιniniκui1Tui2TuiniT=Ej=1niuijιj1κui1T+j=1niuijιj2κui2T++j=1niuijιjniκuiniT=ι11κEui1ui1T+ι22κEui2ui2T++ιniniκEuiniuiniT=tr(ζκ)·u.
E(uiζκũiT)=Eui1,ui2,,uiniq×niι11κι12κι1niκι21κι22κι2niκιni1κιni2κιniniκũi1Tũi2TũiniTni×Lq=Ej=1niuijιj1κũi1T+j=1niuijιj2κũi2T++j=1niuijιjniκũiniT=ι11κE(ui1ũi1T)+ι22κE(ui2ũi2T)++ιniniκE(uiniũiniT)q×Lq=u(1,1,1)1×nidiag(ζ)BiT.
E(ũiζκũiT)=Eũi1,ũi2,,ũiniι11κι12κι1niκι21κι22κι2niκιni1κιni2κιniniκũi1Tũi2TũiniTni×Lq=Ej=1niũijιj1κũi1T+j=1niũijιj2κũi2T++j=1niũijιjniκũiniTLq×Lq=ι11κE(ũi1ũi1T)+ι22κE(ũi2ũi2T)++ιniniκE(ũiniũiniT)Lq×Lq=uBidiag(Ai1/2MκAi1/2)BiT.

Therefore, we can obtain Di(κ) defined as equation (11).

Proof of Theorems

Firstly, we present two necessary lemmas.

Lemma 1

If C1‐C11 hold, and K=ON1/(2r+1) , then we have

g^˙n(θ)pJ0,ng^nθ0N0,Ω0.

According to Equation (14), we have

g^n(θ)=1ni=1nĝi(θ)=1ni=1n(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2M1Ai1/2(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)+D^i(1)θ(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2M2Ai1/2(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)+D^i(2)θ(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2MsAi1/2(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ)+D^i(s)θ.

Denote the κth block matrix of g^˙n(θ) as g^˙nκ(θ), κ=1,2,,s,

g^˙nκ(θ)=1ni=1n(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(Wi,W˜i)D^i(κ)=1ni=1n(Xi+ui,X˜i+ũi)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(Xi+ui,X˜i+ũi)D^i(κ)=1ni=1n(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(Xi,X˜i)Δ1i+(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(ui,ũi)Δ2i+(ui,ũi)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(Xi,X˜i)Δ3i+(ui,ũi)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(ui,ũi)Δ4iD^i(κ)=Δ1+Δ2+Δ3+Δ41ni=1nD^i(κ).

Then we have

Δ41ni=1nD^i(κ)=1ni=1nui,ũiTAi1/2MκAi1/2ui,ũiDi(κ)+Di(κ)1ni=1nD^i(κ).

Clearly, according to the law of large numbers, we have 1ni=1nui,ũiTAi1/2MκAi1/2ui,ũiDi(κ)p0 and Di(κ)1ni=1nD^i(κ)p0 as the n. So we get Δ41ni=1nD^i(κ)p0. Under C9, we can get Δ1pJ0(κ). Now, let's prove that Δ2p0 and Δ3p0.

Denote Δ2=1ni=1nξiκ, where ξiκ=(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(ui,ũi). Obviously, we can get Eξiκ=0. From C4‐C7, we see that covξiκ are bounded. By the law of large numbers, we can get Δ3T=Δ2p0. Thus, we have g^˙nκ(θ)pJ0(κ) and g^˙n(θ)pJ0 where J0=J0(1),J0(2),,J0(s)T. According to the Taylor expansion to g^n(θ) at θ0, we have

g^n(θ)=g^nθ0+g^˙nθ0θθ0+oθθ0.

Denote the κth block matrix of g^nθ0 as g^nκθ0, κ=1,2,,s,

g^nκ(θ0)=1ni=1n(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ0+D^i(κ)θ0=1ni=1n(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2εi1ni=1n(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(ui,ũi)θ0+1ni=1n(ui,ũi)TAi1/2MκAi1/2JXR+1ni=1n(ui,ũi)TAi1/2MκAi1/2εi+1ni=1n(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2JXR1ni=1n(ui,ũi)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(ui,ũi)θ0+1ni=1nDi(κ)θ0=J1J2+J3+J4+J5J6+1ni=1nDi(κ)θ0.

where R(tij)=R1(tij),R2(tij),,Rq(tij)T, Rk(tij)=αk(tij)B(tij)Tγkβk,k=1,2,,q, and JXR=diag(XiRiT)(1,1,,1)ni×1.

RiT=Rti1,Rti2,,Rtini=R1ti1R1ti2R1tiniR2ti1R2ti2R2tiniRqti1Rqti2Rqtini.

Denote J1=1ni=1nφi, where φi=(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2εi. According to C5‐C7, we have Eφi=0 and

covφi=(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2ViAi1/2MκAi1/2(Xi,X˜i)<.

By the law of the large numbers, we get J1p0. Similarly, we have J2p0 and J3p0.

Denote J4=1ni=1nϕi, ϕi=ui,ũiTAi1/2MκAi1/2εi. And since εi,ui are independent of each other, we have Eϕi=0. According to the Cauchy‐Schwarz inequality and C5‐C7 we have

covφi2=Eui,ũiTAi1/2MκAi1/2ui,ũiEεiTAi1/2MκAi1/2εi<.

Thus, J4p0. By the law of large numbers, from the definition of D^i(κ), we have J61ni=1nD^i(κ)θ0p0. From C8, we have J5=Op(n1/2Kr)=op(n1/2) and J3=op(n1/2). So, we have g^n(θ)pJ0θ0θ,θΘ.

Following Tian, Xue and Liu [28], according to the results above, we have

g^nκ(θ0)=1ni=1n((Xi,X˜i)+(ui,ũi))TAi1/2MκAi1/2(εi(ui,ũi)θ0)+D^i(κ)θ0+op(n1/2)=1ni=1n(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2εi(Xi,X˜i)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(ui,ũi)θ0+(ui,ũi)TAi1/2MκAi1/2εi(ui,ũi)TAi1/2MκAi1/2(ui,ũi)θ0+D^i(κ)θ0+op(n1/2)=1ni=1nψiκ1+ψiκ2+ψiκ3+ψiκ4+op(n1/2)=1ni=1nψiκ+op(n1/2).

where ψi=ψi1,ψi2,,ψisT,ψiκ=ψiκ1+ψiκ2+ψiκ3+ψiκ4. So we have g^nθ0=1ni=1nψi+op(n1/2),andΩnθ0=1ni=1nψiψiT+o(1). From C5‐C7, we get Eψikm=0,covψiκm<,m=1,2,3,4.Following the properties of covariance matrix, we have

covψiκm=14covψiκm+mlcovψiκmcovψiκl<,as(q+qL),aTa=1,E(aTψi)=0,supiEaTψi3aTsupiEψi3.

According to the Slutsky Theorem, we have ng^nθ0N0,Ω0,g^nθ0=Op(n1/2). The proof of Lemma 1 is completed.

Lemma 2

If C1‐C11 hold, we get

n1Q˙nθ02g^˙nTθ0Ωn1g^nθ0=Op(n1), (A1)
n1Q¨nθ02g^˙nTθ0Ωn1g^˙nθ0=op(1). (A2)

The proof of Lemma 2 is similar as Lemma 2 in Tian, Xue and Liu [28] and details are omitted here.

Proof of Theorem 1

Let δ=nr/(2r+1),β=β0+δC1,γ=γ0+δC2 and C=(C1T,C2T)T. To prove Theorem 1, it is sufficient to show that ε>0, a large constant C0 satisfies

PinfC=C0Qp(θ)Qpθ01ε. (A3)

Obviously, when ε1, Equation (A3) is always true. Therefore, we consider the case that ε(0,1). Assume αk(·)=0(k=q1+1,q1+2,,q), pλ(0)=0 and let Δ(β,γ)=1K[Qp(θ)Qpθ0],θ0=(β0T,γ0T)T, we have

Δ(β,γ)1KQn(θ)Qnθ0+nKl=1q1pλ1lγlHpλ1lγl0H+nKk=1q1pλ2kβkpλ2kβk0=Δ˜1+Δ˜2+Δ˜3.

Apply Taylor expansion to Qn(θ) at θ0, we have Qn(θ)=Qnθ0+δC=Qnθ0+δCTQ˙nθ0+12δ2CTQ¨n(θ˜)C, where θ˜ lies between θ and θ0. According to Lemmas 1 and 2, we can get

δCTQ˙nθ0=δCT2ng^˙nθ0Ωn1g^nθ0+nOpn1=COp(nδ)+COp(δ),12δ2CTQ¨nθ0C=δ2CT2ng^˙nTθ0Ωn1g^˙nθ0+nop(1)C=nδ2CTg^˙nTθ0Ωn1g^˙nθ0C+nδ2C2op(1).

Therefore, we have

Δ˜1=1Knδ2C2J0TΩ01J0+COp(nδ)+COp(δ)+nδ2C2op(1).

Obviously, nδ2C2J0TΩ01J00. When C is large enough,

nδ2C2J0TΩ01J0COp(nδ),nδ2C2J0TΩ01J0nδ2C2op(1).

So when C is large enough, Δ1>0. Next, by Taylor expansion, we get that

Δ˜2=nKk=1p1pλ2kβkpλ2kβk0=1Kk=1p1nδpλ2kβk0sgnβk0C2+nδ2pλ2kβk0C22(1+o(1))1Kp1nδanC+nδ2anC2,Δ˜3=nKk=1p1pλ2kβkpλ2kβk0=1Kk=1p1nδpλ2kβk0sgnβk0C1+nδ2pλ2kβk0C12(1+o(1))1Kp1nδanC+nδ2anC2.

We can see that for sufficiently large C, Δ˜1Δ2 and Δ˜1Δ˜3 uniformly in Δβ=C. Thus, inequality (A3) holds. According to Schumaker [29], we get

αk(t)β0kBT(t)γ0k=Opnr/(2r+1),k=1,2,,q.

And then we have

α^k(t)αk(t)2=01BT(t)γ^k+β^kBT(t)γ0kβ0kαk(t)+β0k+BT(t)γ0k2dt201BT(t)γ^kBT(t)γ0k+β^kβ0k2dt+201αk(t)β0kBT(t)γ0k2dt=Opn2r/(2r+1).

The proof of Theorem 1 is finished. See the reference Fan and Li [18].

Proof of Theorem 2

To prove part (i), we just need to prove γkH=0 for k𝒞𝒵. According to Theorem 1, it is sufficient to show that, for any θ that satisfies θ^(𝒞)θ0(𝒞)=OpN1/(2r+1) and θ^(𝒱)θ0(𝒱)=OpN1/(2r+1), and a small e=Cn1/(2r+1), when n, with probability tending to 1, we have

Qp(β)γkl<0,e<γkl<0,l=1,2,,L,k𝒞𝒵, (A4)
Qp(β)γkl>0,e>γkl>0,l=1,2,,L,k𝒞𝒵. (A5)

According to Equations (A1) and (A2), we have

Qp(θ)γkl=2ng^n(θ)γklΩn1g^n(θ)+op(n1)+npλ1kγHj=1LhljγkjγkH=2ng^n(θ)γklΩn1g^n(θ)+op(n1)+npλ1k(γkH)(Hγk)lγkH=nλ1k2g^n(θ)γklΩn1g^n(θ)+λ1k1pλ1k(γkH)(Hγk)lγkH+op(n1).

According to the condition C10 and nr/(2r+1)λmin, it is clear that the sgn of Qp(θ)γkl is completely determined by that of γkl, then Equations (A4) and (A5) hold. This completes the proof of part (i).

Similarly, to prove part (ii), we need to prove γkH=0 for k𝒞𝒵 holds with probability tending to one. It is clear that γ^k=0 for k=1,2,,c, and then α^k(·) has been reduced to a constant; it remains to prove that β^k=0 for k𝒵. It is sufficient to show that, for any β that satisfies θ^(𝒞)θ0(𝒞)=OpN1/(2r+1) and θ^(𝒱)θ0(𝒱)=OpN1/(2r+1), and for some given small e=Cn1/(2r+1), when n, with probability tending to 1, we have

Qp(θ)βk<0,e<βk<0,andQp(θ)βk>0,e>βk>0,k=v+1,v+2,,q.

Applying similar techniques as in the analysis of part (i), we have

Qp(θ)βk=2ng^nT(θ)βkΩn1g^n(θ)+opn1+np2kβksgnβk=nλ2k2λ2k1g^nT(θ)βkΩn1g^n(θ)+λ2k1p2kβksgnβk+op(n1).

It is clear that the sign of Qp(θ)βk is completely determined by the sign of βk. Then, with probability tending to 1, β^k=0 for k𝒵. The proof of part (ii) is finished. See the Xu et al. [23] and reference therein.

Proof of Theorem 3

Let α0(·)=(α01(·),α02(·),,α0q(·))T be the real coefficients in model (2).

θ0=β0T,γ0TT=(β0(𝒞))T,(β0(𝒱))T,(β0(𝒵))T,(γ0(𝒞))T,(γ0(𝒱))T,(γ0(𝒵))TT.

where β0(𝒞)=(β01,,β0c)T,β0(𝒱)=(β0(c+1),,β0v)T,β0(𝒵)=(β0(v+1),,β0q)T, and γ0(𝒞)=(γ01T,,γ0cT)T,γ0(𝒱)=(γ0(c+1)T,,γ0vT)T,γ0(𝒵)=(γ0(v+1)T,,γ0qT)T.

Thus,

(Wi,W˜i)θ=Wi(𝒞)β^(𝒞)+Wi(𝒱)β^(𝒱)+W˜i(𝒱)γ^(𝒱).

Then, Theorems 1 and 2 imply that, as n, with probability tending to 1, the objective function Qp(θ) attains its minimum at θ^=(β^(𝒞))T,(β^(𝒱))T,(0)T,(0)T,(γ^(𝒱))T,(0)TT. Denote Q1p(θ)=Qp(θ)β1(𝒞),Q2p(θ)=Qp(θ)γ(𝒱). We know that

Q1p(β^(𝒞))T,(β^(𝒱))T,(0)T,(0)T,(γ^(𝒱))T,(0)TT=2ni=1nr=1sr=1s(Xi(𝒞))TAi1/2MrAi1/2(Wi,W˜i)Ωr,r1{(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2MrAi1/2(Yi(Wi,W˜i)θ^)+D^i(r)θ^}+op(n1)+k=1cp2k(|β^k|)sgn(β^k)=2ni=1n(Xi(𝒞))TτiWi(𝒞)β(𝒞)+Wi(𝒱)β(𝒱)+W˜i(𝒱)γ(𝒱)[Wi(𝒞)β^(𝒞)+Wi(𝒱)β^(𝒱)+W˜i(𝒱)γ^(𝒱)]+εi+JXR+op(n1)+k=1cp2k(|β^k|)sgn(β^k)=0. (A6)

and

Q2p(β^(𝒞))T,(β^(𝒱))T,(0)T,(0)T,(γ^(𝒱))T,(0)TT=2ni=1nr=1sr=1s(X˜i(𝒱))TAi1/2MrAi1/2(Wi,W˜i)Ωr,r1(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2MrAi1/2(Yi[Wi(𝒞)β^(𝒞)+Wi(𝒱)β^(𝒱)+W˜i(𝒱)γ^(𝒱)])+D^i(1)θ^+op(n1)+k=c+1vp1kγ^kHHγkγ^kH=2ni=1n(X˜i(𝒱))TτiWi(𝒞)β(𝒞)+Wi(𝒱)β(𝒱)+W˜i(𝒱)γ(𝒱)[Wi(𝒞)β^(𝒞)+Wi(𝒱)β^(𝒱)+W˜i(𝒱)γ^(𝒱)]+εi+JXR+op(n1)+k=c+1vp1kγ^kHHγkγ^kH=0. (A7)

where Ωκκ1 is the κ,κ block of Ω01 τi=r=1sr=1sAi1/2MrAi1/2(Wi,W˜i)Ωrr1(Wi,W˜i)TAi1/2MrAi1/2.

Apply the Taylor expansion to pλ2k(|β^k|), we have

pλ2k(|β^k|)=pλ2kβ0k+pλ2kβ0k+op(1)(β^kβ0k).

Condition C10 implies that pλ2kβ0k=op(1), and note that pλ2kβ0k=0 as λmaxop(β^β0). Thus, pλ2k(|β^k|)=0. By the same argument, we know that γ^kHaλ1k for n large enough. Thus, pλ1kγ0kH=0 and pλ1kγ0kH=0, which imply that p1kγ^kH=0.

Hence, according to equations (A6) and (A7), we have

2ni=1n(Xi(𝒞))TτiWi(𝒞)β(𝒞)β^(𝒞)+Wi(𝒱)β(𝒱)β^(𝒱)+W˜i(𝒱)γ(𝒱)γ^(𝒱)+εi+JXR+opβ(𝒞)β^(𝒞)=0. (A8)
2ni=1nX˜i(𝒱)TτiWi(𝒞)β(𝒞)β^(𝒞)+Wi(𝒱)β(𝒱)β^(𝒱)+W˜i(𝒱)γ(𝒱)γ^(𝒱)+εi+JXR+opΔθ(𝒱)=0. (A9)

To clearly present the combined term, we have

Wi(𝒱)Δθ(𝒱)=Wi(𝒱)β(𝒱)β^(𝒱)+W˜i(𝒱)γ(𝒱)γ^(𝒱),

where Δθ(𝒱)=β(𝒱)β^(𝒱)γ(𝒱)γ^(𝒱) and Wi(𝒱)=Wi(𝒱),W˜i(𝒱). Denote Φn1ni=1nXi(𝒞)TτiWi(𝒞), Ψn1ni=1nXi(𝒞)TτiWi(𝒱), and ϱ1ni=1nXi(𝒞)Tτi(εi+JXR). Then Equation (A8) can be rewritten as

Φnβ(𝒞)β^(𝒞)+ΨnΔθ(𝒱)+ϱ+opβ(𝒞)β^(𝒞)=0.

Similarly, denote Ã1ni=1nX˜i(𝒱)TτiWi(𝒞),B˜1ni=1nX˜i(𝒱)TτiWi(𝒱),and R˜1ni=1nX˜i(𝒱)Tτi(εi+JXR). Thus, Equation (A9) becomes Ãβ(𝒞)β^(𝒞)+B˜Δθ(𝒱)+R˜+opΔθ(𝒱)=0.Thus, we have Δθ(𝒱)=B˜1Ãβ(𝒞)β^(𝒞)B˜1R˜+opΔθ(𝒱). Substitute Δθ(𝒱) into Equation (A8), then we can get

Φnβ(𝒞)β^(𝒞)ΨnB˜1Ãβ(𝒞)β^(𝒞)ΨnB˜1R˜+ϱ+opβ(𝒞)β^(𝒞)=0. (A10)

The foregoing formula is equivalent to

1ni=1nXi(𝒞)TτiWi(𝒞)β(𝒞)β^(𝒞)1ni=1nXi(𝒞)TτiWi(𝒱)B˜11ni=1nX˜i(𝒱)TτiWi(𝒞)β(𝒞)β^(𝒞)1ni=1nXi(𝒞)TτiWi(𝒱)B˜11ni=1nX˜i(𝒱)Tτiεi+JXR+1ni=1nXi(𝒞)Tτiεi+JXR+opβ(𝒞)β^(𝒞)=0.

According Equation (A10), we have

1ni=1nÃB˜1X˜i(𝒱)TτiWi(𝒞)Wi(𝒱)B˜1Ã=0,
1ni=1nÃB˜1X˜i(𝒱)Tτiεi+JXRWi(𝒱)B˜1R˜=0.

and

1ni=1nW˘i(𝒞)τiW˘i(𝒞)T+op(1)nβ^1(𝒞)β01(𝒞)=1ni=1nW˘i(𝒞)τiεi1ni=1nW˘i(𝒞)τiX˜i(𝒱)B˜1+op(1)R˜+1ni=1nW˘i(𝒞)τiJXR=G1+G2+G3,

where W˘i(C)=Wi(C)TÃB˜1Wi(𝒱)T.

It is clear that 1ni=1nW˘i(C)τiX˜i(𝒱)=0 implies G2=0. Using the law of large numbers, we can obtain 1ni=1nW˘i(C)τiτi(W˘i(C))TPA. According to the central limit theorem, we have

G1=1ni=1nW˘i(𝒞)τiεiN(0,B),
A=EW(𝒞)TτiEX˜(𝒱)Tdiag(τ)W(𝒞)|tEX˜(𝒱)Tdiag(τ)W(𝒱)|t1EW(𝒱)Tτ|t2,
B=EW(𝒞)TτiEX˜(𝒱)Tdiag(τ)W(𝒱)|tEX˜(𝒱)Tdiag(τ)W(𝒱)|t1EW(𝒱)Tτ|tε2,

where the superscript symbol “Inline graphic” is defined as a matrix operator for a matrix M such as M2=MMT.

W(𝒞)=W1(𝒞)T,W2(𝒞)T,,Wn(𝒞)TT,W(𝒱)=W1(𝒱)T,W2(𝒱)T,,Wn(𝒱)TT,X˜(𝒱)=X˜1(𝒱)T,X˜2(𝒱)T,,X˜n(𝒱)TT,τ=(τ1,τn,,τn)T.

Following Tian, Xue and Liu [28], we know that G3=op(1). According to the Slutsky Theorem, Theorem 3 is proved.

Some Additional Numerical Results

TABLE A1.

Structure identification and variable selection with the EX correlation structure (ni=10).

Structure identification and variable selection
ρ
σu
n
Method CZ IZ CV IV CC IC CF
0.7 0.2 300 LASSO 2.7200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2800 0.7400
MCP 2.6800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3200 0.7200
SCAD 2.7150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2850 0.7500
nSCAD 2.6750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3250 0.7450
350 LASSO 2.8200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1800 0.8650
MCP 2.8000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2000 0.8450
SCAD 2.8450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1550 0.8900
nSCAD 2.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.8850
400 LASSO 2.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.9000
MCP 2.8350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1650 0.8750
SCAD 2.9200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0800 0.9300
nSCAD 2.8950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1050 0.9100
0.4 300 LASSO 2.6500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3500 0.6800
MCP 2.6450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3550 0.6800
SCAD 2.7200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2800 0.7350
nSCAD 2.5700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4300 0.6200
350 LASSO 2.6900 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3100 0.7200
MCP 2.6850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3150 0.7250
SCAD 2.8450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1550 0.8800
nSCAD 2.6000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4000 0.6550
400 LASSO 2.8100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1900 0.8500
MCP 2.7800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2200 0.8250
SCAD 2.8700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1300 0.9000
nSCAD 2.7450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2550 0.8000
0.6 300 LASSO 2.3500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.6500 0.5100
MCP 2.2350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.7650 0.4800
SCAD 2.6600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3400 0.7300
nSCAD 2.1750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.8250 0.4150
350 LASSO 2.4450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5550 0.5450
MCP 2.4450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5550 0.5500
SCAD 2.7800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2200 0.8300
nSCAD 2.3150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.6850 0.4600
400 LASSO 2.7100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2900 0.7400
MCP 2.6500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3500 0.6950
SCAD 2.8500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1500 0.8550
nSCAD 2.5000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5000 0.5800

TABLE A2.

Structure identification and variable selection with the EX correlation structure (ni=20).

Structure identification and variable selection
ρ
σu
n
Method CZ IZ CV IV CC IC CF
0.7 0.2 300 LASSO 2.8550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1450 0.8700
MCP 2.8200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1800 0.8500
SCAD 2.9000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1000 0.9150
nSCAD 2.7700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2300 0.8200
350 LASSO 2.8650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1350 0.9000
MCP 2.8500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1500 0.8850
SCAD 2.9550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0450 0.9650
nSCAD 2.8750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1250 0.9000
400 LASSO 2.9000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1000 0.9050
MCP 2.8950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1050 0.9000
SCAD 2.9850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0150 0.9850
nSCAD 2.8950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1050 0.9250
0.4 300 LASSO 2.7800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2200 0.8200
MCP 2.7300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2700 0.7900
SCAD 2.8650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1350 0.8850
nSCAD 2.7200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2800 0.7450
350 LASSO 2.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.8650
MCP 2.8250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1750 0.8450
SCAD 2.9100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0900 0.9150
nSCAD 2.7200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2800 0.7650
400 LASSO 2.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.8950
MCP 2.8350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1650 0.8750
SCAD 2.9100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0900 0.9250
nSCAD 2.8000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2000 0.8200
0.6 300 LASSO 2.6950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3050 0.7350
MCP 2.6750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3250 0.7300
SCAD 2.8200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1800 0.8550
nSCAD 2.5300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4700 0.6150
350 LASSO 2.8100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1900 0.8400
MCP 2.7650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2350 0.8150
SCAD 2.8550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1450 0.8800
nSCAD 2.5650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4350 0.6300
400 LASSO 2.8750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1250 0.8900
MCP 2.8550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1450 0.8750
SCAD 2.9050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0950 0.9150
nSCAD 2.6500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3500 0.7050

TABLE A3.

Structure identification and variable selection with the AR(1) correlation structure (ni=10).

Structure identification and variable selection
ρ
σu
n
Method CZ IZ CV IV CC IC CF
0.7 0.2 300 LASSO 2.6450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3550 0.6900
MCP 2.6100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3900 0.6700
SCAD 2.6400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3600 0.6800
nSCAD 2.6050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3950 0.6650
350 LASSO 2.6700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3300 0.7150
MCP 2.7150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2850 0.7450
SCAD 2.7300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2700 0.7500
nSCAD 2.6950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3050 0.7150
400 LASSO 2.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.8750
MCP 2.8300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1700 0.8600
SCAD 2.8700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1300 0.8850
nSCAD 2.8400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1600 0.8550
0.4 300 LASSO 2.5950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4050 0.6500
MCP 2.6000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4000 0.6350
SCAD 2.5950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4050 0.6200
nSCAD 2.5300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4700 0.6100
350 LASSO 2.6000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4000 0.6500
MCP 2.5950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4050 0.6400
SCAD 2.6100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3900 0.6600
nSCAD 2.5100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4900 0.6100
400 LASSO 2.6800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3200 0.7250
MCP 2.7050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2950 0.7350
SCAD 2.8650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1350 0.8800
nSCAD 2.5750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4250 0.6450
0.6 300 LASSO 2.5450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4550 0.6100
MCP 2.4450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5550 0.5400
SCAD 2.5150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4850 0.5850
nSCAD 2.3050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.6950 0.4450
350 LASSO 2.6600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3400 0.7100
MCP 2.5700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4300 0.6300
SCAD 2.6000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4000 0.6500
nSCAD 2.4950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5050 0.5800
400 LASSO 2.6450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3550 0.6750
MCP 2.6450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3550 0.6800
SCAD 2.6550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3450 0.6750
nSCAD 2.5500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4500 0.6150

TABLE A4.

Structure identification and variable selection with the AR(1) correlation structure (ni=20).

Structure identification and variable selection
ρ
σu
n
Method CZ IZ CV IV CC IC CF
0.7 0.2 300 LASSO 2.8200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1800 0.8400
MCP 2.8250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1750 0.8400
SCAD 2.8400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1600 0.8500
nSCAD 2.7750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2250 0.8000
350 LASSO 2.8300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1700 0.8750
MCP 2.8550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1450 0.8700
SCAD 2.8750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1250 0.8900
nSCAD 2.8150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1850 0.8550
400 LASSO 2.9300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0700 0.9350
MCP 2.9000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1000 0.9200
SCAD 2.9600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0400 0.9600
nSCAD 2.8250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1750 0.8700
0.4 300 LASSO 2.7350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2650 0.7600
MCP 2.7350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2650 0.7550
SCAD 2.8000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2000 0.8100
nSCAD 2.6200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3800 0.6650
350 LASSO 2.8650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1350 0.8650
MCP 2.8050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1950 0.8300
SCAD 2.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.8750
nSCAD 2.7100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2900 0.7450
400 LASSO 2.8550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1450 0.8650
MCP 2.8450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1550 0.8550
SCAD 2.8950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1050 0.9000
nSCAD 2.7200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2800 0.7650
0.6 300 LASSO 2.7000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3000 0.7350
MCP 2.7050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2950 0.7400
SCAD 2.7750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2250 0.8050
nSCAD 2.5650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4350 0.6250
350 LASSO 2.7500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2500 0.7800
MCP 2.7250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2750 0.7700
SCAD 2.8300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1700 0.8450
nSCAD 2.5700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4300 0.6400
400 LASSO 2.8400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1600 0.8650
MCP 2.8050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1950 0.8450
SCAD 2.8700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1300 0.8900
nSCAD 2.6350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3650 0.6850

TABLE A5.

Model estimation results (q=20,ni=20,ρ=0.7).

n=400
n=500
n=600
Corstr
ρ
σu
Method GMSE RASE GMSE RASE GMSE RASE
AR(1) 0.7 0.4 LASSO 0.016985 0.062900 0.016123 0.056167 0.015715 0.052109
MCP 0.008156 0.061890 0.005986 0.053690 0.003870 0.049172
SCAD 0.008249 0.061449 0.006156 0.053667 0.004017 0.049403
nSCAD 0.144295 0.078095 0.144290 0.071223 0.142096 0.067723
0.6 LASSO 0.066033 0.099954 0.065660 0.087637 0.063251 0.080042
MCP 0.017984 0.091795 0.011278 0.079057 0.008998 0.070233
SCAD 0.019279 0.093662 0.012399 0.080058 0.009650 0.071932
nSCAD 0.692059 0.141239 0.663470 0.133779 0.657981 0.125970
EX 0.7 0.4 LASSO 0.019243 0.063297 0.016841 0.055279 0.016527 0.050517
MCP 0.008648 0.061288 0.005200 0.052335 0.004022 0.048058
SCAD 0.008824 0.061437 0.005602 0.052955 0.004182 0.048277
nSCAD 0.175114 0.072692 0.166807 0.066381 0.158860 0.061465
0.6 LASSO 0.072644 0.098746 0.071361 0.086338 0.067447 0.079995
MCP 0.017900 0.092662 0.011884 0.077784 0.008770 0.070767
SCAD 0.018550 0.093136 0.011706 0.078541 0.008805 0.071786
nSCAD 0.760916 0.131829 0.735102 0.126376 0.715669 0.120093

TABLE A6.

Structure identification and variable selection results (q=20,ni=20,ρ=0.7).

Structure identification and variable selection
Corstr
σu
n
Method CZ IZ CV IV CC IC

CF

EX 0.4 400 LASSO 14.8950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1050 0.9200
MCP 14.8650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1350 0.8900
SCAD 14.9450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0550 0.9450
nSCAD 14.5550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4450 0.7150
500 LASSO 14.9050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0950 0.9150
MCP 14.8850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1150 0.9050
SCAD 14.9150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0850 0.9700
nSCAD 14.5550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4450 0.7600
600 LASSO 14.8800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1200 0.9550
MCP 14.9300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0700 0.9500
SCAD 14.9300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0700 0.9900
nSCAD 14.6550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3450 0.7850
0.6 400 LASSO 13.2200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.7800 0.5750
MCP 12.4450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 2.5550 0.4600
SCAD 14.5550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4450 0.8550
nSCAD 13.1600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.8400 0.6700
500 LASSO 14.4250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5750 0.6850
MCP 14.0250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.9750 0.4950
SCAD 14.8000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2000 0.9150
nSCAD 13.7800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.2200 0.7300
600 LASSO 14.8250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1750 0.8500
MCP 14.7400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2600 0.8200
SCAD 14.9050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0950 0.9300
nSCAD 14.1350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.8650 0.7600
AR(1) 0.4 400 LASSO 14.7650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2350 0.8100
MCP 14.7500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2500 0.7800
SCAD 14.9100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0900 0.9350
nSCAD 14.2950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.7050 0.6500
500 LASSO 14.9650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0350 0.9700
MCP 14.9550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0450 0.9800
SCAD 14.9300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0700 0.9750
nSCAD 14.6600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3400 0.8200
600 LASSO 14.9900 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0100 0.9900
MCP 14.9000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1000 0.9900
SCAD 14.9950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0050 0.9950
nSCAD 14.8200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1800 0.8600
0.6 400 LASSO 13.1750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.8250 0.5900
MCP 12.1650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 2.8350 0.4500
SCAD 14.1700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.8300 0.6700
nSCAD 12.7650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 2.2350 0.5100
500 LASSO 14.7050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2950 0.7850
MCP 14.5800 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4200 0.6900
SCAD 14.9200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0800 0.9500
nSCAD 13.9900 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.0100 0.8000
600 LASSO 14.9050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0950 0.9250
MCP 14.8400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1600 0.8800
SCAD 14.9700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0300 0.9750
nSCAD 14.2900 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.7100 0.8050

TABLE A7.

Model estimation results q=50,ni=20.

n=400
n=700
n=1000
Corstr
ρ
σu
Method GMSE RASE GMSE RASE GMSE RASE
AR(1) 0.3 0.6 LASSO 0.064341 0.114592 0.031191 0.067650 0.042419 0.059851
MCP 0.029075 0.106077 0.015399 0.066843 0.010787 0.056794
SCAD 0.027497 0.108374 0.015930 0.067008 0.011287 0.056623
nSCAD 0.146192 0.137163 0.128575 0.082160 0.125350 0.074936
0.7 LASSO 0.112530 0.138968 0.051961 0.079297 0.043889 0.070980
MCP 0.043292 0.128857 0.022971 0.075008 0.020832 0.069268
SCAD 0.046243 0.129316 0.025064 0.075690 0.021372 0.069486
nSCAD 0.253093 0.170923 0.222431 0.103973 0.184898 0.084143
EX 0.7 0.6 LASSO 0.089834 0.131975 0.033852 0.069576 0.039466 0.057969
MCP 0.042206 0.124017 0.018991 0.067334 0.011058 0.055223
SCAD 0.037738 0.122862 0.018790 0.067459 0.011709 0.055316
nSCAD 0.211071 0.150111 0.190835 0.084163 0.155614 0.072097
0.7 LASSO 0.147694 0.157707 0.059348 0.076340 0.049364 0.071095
MCP 0.048806 0.145195 0.021851 0.072973 0.020772 0.068934
SCAD 0.048354 0.147517 0.023644 0.073777 0.021018 0.068360
nSCAD 0.316021 0.190023 0.352679 0.097988 0.191410 0.083184

TABLE A8.

Structure identification and variable selection results q=50,ni=20.

Structure identification and variable selection
Corstr
σu
n
Method CZ IZ CV IV CC IC

CF

EX 0.6 400 LASSO 43.7350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.2650 0.6300
MCP 44.3550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.6450 0.6600
SCAD 44.5850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4150 0.7850
nSCAD 43.5950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.4050 0.4250
700 LASSO 44.5250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4750 0.7950
MCP 44.6300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3700 0.8100
SCAD 44.6950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3050 0.8550
nSCAD 43.4700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.5300 0.4700
1000 LASSO 44.8850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1150 0.9800
MCP 44.7750 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2250 0.9750
SCAD 44.7150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2850 0.9650
nSCAD 44.3200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.6800 0.7150
0.7 400 LASSO 43.9000 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.1000 0.5000
MCP 44.2400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.7600 0.5800
SCAD 44.2700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.7300 0.7500
nSCAD 42.5300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 2.4700 0.2500
700 LASSO 44.3050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.6950 0.7650
MCP 44.5450 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4550 0.7500
SCAD 44.7350 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2650 0.8200
nSCAD 43.0150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.9850 0.4100
1000 LASSO 44.8650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1350 0.9050
MCP 44.8200 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1800 0.8800
SCAD 44.8050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1950 0.8650
nSCAD 43.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.1400 0.6250
AR(1) 0.6 400 LASSO 44.3300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.6700 0.6700
MCP 44.4300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5700 0.6800
SCAD 44.6150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3850 0.8150
nSCAD 43.1700 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.8300 0.3450
700 LASSO 44.7150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2850 0.9400
MCP 44.7300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2700 0.8900
SCAD 44.7950 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2050 0.9050
nSCAD 43.7650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.2350 0.5450
1000 LASSO 44.9100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.0900 0.9900
MCP 44.8600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1400 0.9800
SCAD 44.7650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2350 0.9900
nSCAD 44.6150 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3850 0.9050
0.7 400 LASSO 44.2400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.7600 0.6000
MCP 43.9600 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.0400 0.5700
SCAD 44.5100 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.4900 0.7650
nSCAD 42.5300 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 2.4700 0.3000
700 LASSO 44.7250 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2750 0.8300
MCP 44.4550 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.5450 0.8000
SCAD 44.7500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.2500 0.8250
nSCAD 43.2500 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.7500 0.3850
1000 LASSO 44.8050 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.1950 0.8900
MCP 44.6400 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.3600 0.8850
SCAD 44.2850 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 0.7150 0.8800
nSCAD 43.8650 0.0000 3.0000 0.0000 2.0000 1.1350 0.6950

Higher Dimensional Simulation Results

When considering the higher dimensional case, under reasonable conditions, we have relaxed the criteria in our code for determining whether the varying coefficient is zero. According to Equation (21), nonzero values of γkH are identified and selected. In our simulation with eight varying coefficients, we adopt the threshold γkH>107 to declare the coefficient function αk(·) as varying, whereas γkH<107 indicates it is constant. In the higher dimensional setting, that is, q=20,50, we replace the threshold 107 by 103. We reached the same conclusion in higher dimensional setting. The detailed results are as follows.

  • 1.
    Suppose that the real model (2) satisfies 𝒞={1,2},𝒱={3,4,5},𝒵={6,7,,20} and
    α(𝒞)(t)=(α1(t),α2(t))=(5,6),α(𝒱)(t)=(α3(t),α4(t),α5(t))=(0.7·e2t1,1.5·sin(πt),0.2·(22t)3),α(𝒵)(t)=(α6(t),α7(t),,α20(t))=(0,0,,0).

    We took XijN(3,σX2I20),uijN(0,σu2I20), where j= 1,2,,20,σX=3,I20 is 20×20 identify matrix. We set σu as 0.4,0.6. tijU[0,1]. εi=εi1,εi2,,εiniTN0,σ2Corrεi,ρ, where σ2=1 and Corrεi,ρ is a known correlation matrix with parameter ρ. Thus, we can get Ai=diag(1,1,,1). In our work, we set n=400,500,600, ni=20 and εi has the first‐order autoregressive (AR(1)) and exchangeable (EX) correlation structures with ρ=0.7. The cubic B‐spline basis was applied with the knots being equally spaced in [0,1],K=c0×N1/5, where c0 denotes the largest integer less than c0 [28]. Please see Tables A5 and A6.

  • 2.
    Suppose that the real model (2) satisfies 𝒞={1,2},𝒱={3,4,5},𝒵={6,7,,50} and
    α(𝒞)(t)=(α1(t),α2(t))=(5,6),α(𝒱)(t)=(α3(t),α4(t),α5(t))=(e2t,6·sin(πt),(22t)3),α(𝒵)(t)=(α6(t),α7(t),,α50(t))=(0,0,,0).

    We took XijN(5,σX2I50),uijN(0,σu2I50), where j= 1,2,,50,σX=5,I50 is 50×50 identify matrix. We set σu as 0.6,0.7. tijU[0,1]. εi=εi1,εi2,,εiniTN0,σ2Corrεi,ρ, where σ2=1 and Corrεi,ρ is a known correlation matrix with parameter ρ. Thus, we can get Ai=diag(1,1,,1). In our work, we set n=400,700,1000, ni=20 and εi has the first‐order autoregressive (AR(1)) with ρ=0.3 and exchangeable (EX) correlation structures with ρ=0.7. The cubic B‐spline basis was applied with the knots being equally spaced in [0,1],K=c0×N1/5, where c0 denotes the largest integer less than c0 [28]. Please see Tables A7 and A8.

Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available due to privacy or ethical restrictions.

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Associated Data

This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available due to privacy or ethical restrictions.


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