Skip to main content
PLOS One logoLink to PLOS One
. 2026 May 21;21(5):e0349795. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0349795

Effects of massive transfusion (10-20 litres) versus ultramassive transfusion (≥20 litres) on mortality in adult liver transplant recipients: A propensity-score matched study

Zac Tran 1,☯, Nattaya Raykateeraroj 2,☯, Jemin Suh 1, Jordan Ismail 1, Michael Fink 3,4, Rebecca Caragata 1, Marcos V Perini 3,4, Anoop N Koshy 5, Dong-Kyu Lee 6, Laurence Weinberg 1,7,*
Editor: Pavel Strnad8
PMCID: PMC13193539  PMID: 42166494

Abstract

Background

Ultramassive perioperative fluid transfusion during orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) identifies a high-risk recipient phenotype and is associated with substantially increased mortality compared with conventional massive transfusion. OLT frequently necessitates high-volume fluid resuscitation, yet the prognostic implications of ultramassive perioperative transfusion in this setting remain uncertain. We evaluated whether ultramassive transfusion (≥20 L total perioperative fluid) is independently associated with worse survival than massive transfusion (10– < 20 L) in adult OLT recipients.

Methods

In this single-centre retrospective cohort (2009–2023), we included adults undergoing primary OLT who received ≥10 L of total perioperative fluid (crystalloids, colloids, blood, and blood products administered intraoperatively and within 24 hours postoperatively). Propensity score matching was used to compare recipients receiving ultramassive (≥20 L) versus massive (10– < 20 L) transfusion, balancing recipient, donor, and intraoperative characteristics. Primary outcomes were 90-day, 3-year, and overall all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes included graft failure, graft and patient survival time, primary non-function, early allograft dysfunction, thrombotic complications, acute kidney injury, and hospital length of stay.

Results

Of 993 OLT recipients, 306 (30.8%) received ≥10 L perioperative fluid and comprised the unmatched cohort. In the propensity-matched cohort (n = 188), ultramassive transfusion was associated with significantly higher 90-day, 3-year and overall mortality compared with massive transfusion, with consistent effect estimates across multiple matching strategies and sensitivity analyses. In contrast, ultramassive transfusion showed no robust or consistent association with early allograft dysfunction, thrombotic complications, graft loss, or other secondary endpoints, likely reflecting low event rates and limited power.

Conclusions

Among adult OLT recipients exposed to high-volume perioperative resuscitation, ultramassive transfusion delineates a distinct high-risk phenotype characterised by substantially increased short- and long-term mortality. Although causal inference is precluded by the observational design, these findings suggest that reaching an ultramassive transfusion threshold may mark a particularly vulnerable subgroup that warrants intensified intraoperative optimisation strategies and tailored long-term surveillance.

Introduction

Orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) is the definitive intervention for end-stage liver disease, but it remains a complex and resource-intensive surgery with a high risk of intraoperative haemorrhage due to hepatic vascularity, portal hypertension, and disease-related coagulopathy [1–5]. Consequently, high-volume transfusions are often necessary to maintain haemodynamic stability and perfusion [6,7]. Massive fluid transfusion (MT), defined herein as a total perioperative fluid volume of ≥10 litres administered intraoperatively and within 24 hours postoperatively, is a recognised risk factor for adverse surgical outcomes, including elevated mortality, multiorgan failure, and resource consumption [8–10].

Within this MT population, a higher-risk subgroup of ultramassive fluid transfusions (UMT) exists, defined herein as a total perioperative fluid volume of ≥20 litres administered intraoperatively and within 24 hours postoperatively. The incidence of UMT transfusions is increasing among OLT recipients, which may represent a clinical and logistical inflection point for disproportionately increased resource consumption and worse outcomes [11–13]. Unfortunately, the evidence is hindered by several factors: existing massive transfusion protocols are predominantly trauma-based and may not translate to the pathophysiology of OLT recipients who are predisposed to severe haemorrhage and physiological derangement [14]; studies do not rigorously account for confounding, such that differences in outcomes may be driven by underlying morbidity rather than the transfusion volume [11,15]; few studies explore other clinically relevant outcomes such as graft dysfunction, thrombotic events or length of stay [10,16]; and the absence of a consensus definition of high-volume transfusion thresholds complicates cross-study comparison [10,11,17].

Given the cost, scarcity and logistical burden of blood products, understanding the clinical impact of UMT in OLT is critical for prognostication, resource stewardship and designing OLT-specific transfusion protocols [11,16–21]. There is a gap in the literature for outcome-based transfusion studies in non-trauma contexts, especially in OLT, where the effects of high-volume transfusion remain poorly characterised [13,16,22] and existing protocols may be inadequate. To our knowledge, few studies have used propensity score matching (PSM) to rigorously compare the postoperative outcomes of UMT versus MT in the OLT setting [11,12,16,23].

This single-centre retrospective cohort study aimed to compare postoperative outcomes of OLT recipients who received UMT versus MT using PSM. As there is no universally accepted definition of high-volume transfusion, particularly in the context of orthotopic liver transplantation, we defined total perioperative fluid volume a priori as the sum of all crystalloids, colloids, and blood products administered intraoperatively and within 24 hours postoperatively, on the basis that all fluids contribute to the physiological derangements associated with high-volume resuscitation [10–12,14,16]. The primary outcome was patient survival during the early (90 days), intermediate (3 years) and long-term postoperative periods. Secondary outcomes included graft loss across the same postoperative periods, as well as exploratory outcomes of long-term transplant-associated complications, acute kidney injury, thrombotic events, and hospital length of stay. Based on existing literature suggesting a dose-dependent effect of transfusion volume on adverse outcomes, we hypothesised that UMT would be associated with significantly poorer outcomes than MT, even after adjustment for confounding [8,10,14].

Methods

Ethics

The Austin Health Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC/105884/Austin-2024) approved this study (no: 12624000499583) on 25 March 2024 and waived the requirement for informed consent due to the retrospective design and use of de-identified, routinely collected clinical data. The study adhered to the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki and the Declaration of Istanbul and was reported in accordance with the STROCSS 2025 guidelines. Data collection was completed on 4 March 2025. No protocol changes occurred after ethics approval. Data analysis commenced only after approval was granted.

Study design and setting

This is a retrospective cohort study of adult OLT recipients (≥18 years old) at Austin Health, Melbourne, Australia, a quaternary referral centre and home to the Victorian Liver Transplant Unit, from 14 November 2009–31 December 2023. The unit performs approximately 100 adult deceased donor transplants annually.

Patient population and definitions

All adult OLT recipients who received ≥10 L of total fluids intraoperatively and within 24 hours postoperatively were eligible, excluding those with combined cardiac-liver or lung-liver co-transplantations. Patients were not excluded based on transplant indication or re-transplantation status; repeat transplantations were treated as separate events. The unmatched cohort included all eligible participants, who were stratified according to the total fluid volume administered intraoperatively and within 24 hours postoperatively. Massive transfusion was defined as administration of 10–20 L of total fluid, and ultramassive transfusion (UMT) as ≥20 L of total fluid, encompassing crystalloids, colloids, and blood products (packed red blood cells [pRBC], fresh frozen plasma [FFP], and platelets). This composite definition captures the total perioperative resuscitation burden, reflecting the physiological impact of extreme fluid transfusion, and is consistent with prior work in this field, including a recent study of ultramassive fluid transfusions at our institution [24]. Although not universally accepted, this approach is consistent with recent literature and represents clinically meaningful checkpoints for resource consumption and outcomes [11,17]. Follow-up was conducted longitudinally through the institutional transplant registry, from the index procedure until graft loss, mortality, or the end of the study period.

Our comparison of UMT and MT recipients evaluates the incremental risk associated with extreme transfusion volumes in the high-acuity OLT setting. Patients who received <10 L were excluded, as this group is often heterogeneous with potentially lower acuity [10,14], which could confound the relationship between transfusion volume and outcomes. The 10 L threshold is a widely accepted, if not universal, definition of massive transfusion and is commonly used to trigger clinical protocols and heighten vigilance [11,14,25]. Restricting the cohort to recipients who received ≥10 L allowed for a more focused evaluation of whether transfusion volumes exceeding this threshold confer disproportionately worse outcomes and warrant more vigilant perioperative care.

Outcomes

The primary outcomes were 90-day, 3-year and overall mortality, recorded cumulatively from the index liver transplantation until the last follow-up, as there was no fixed follow-up period.

Secondary outcomes were 90-day, 3-year and overall graft failure (defined as re-transplantation or death attributed to graft failure occurring at any time post-transplant); patient and graft survival time (from the index procedure to death or graft failure, respectively); primary non-function (PNF, defined as re-transplantation or patient death due to graft failure within 7 days); early allograft dysfunction (EAD, defined as aspartate transaminase (AST) or alanine transaminase (ALT) >2000 IU/L at least once within the first 7 postoperative days (absolute value); bilirubin ≥10 mg/dL or international normalized ratio [INR] ≥1.6 within 7 days); thrombotic complications (hepatic artery, portal vein, hepatic vein, or other sites); acute kidney injury (AKI) and stage (per Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes [KDIGO] criteria); and hospital length of stay (LOS, total postoperative days). All outcomes were obtained from the institutional liver transplant registry and verified by electronic medical record review to ensure accuracy. Events were recorded cumulatively from the date of transplantation until the end of data collection.

Data collection

A comprehensive dataset of donor, recipient, intraoperative, and postoperative variables was extracted from the institutional liver transplant registry and supplemented by manual review of electronic medical records using a standardised abstraction protocol. The registry data comprised information from routine clinical assessments and laboratory investigations.

Donor variables included age, baseline laboratory values, donation pathway (donation after cardiac death or brain death), donor risk index (DRI), cause of death, cold ischaemia time (time in preservation solution), warm ischaemia time (time from removal from cold storage to reperfusion), total ischaemia time, and partial graft status.

Recipient variables included age, sex, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), transplant indication, model for end-stage liver disease scores (MELD, MELD-sodium, and MELD-3), Gender-Equity Model for Liver Allocation (GEMA), and baseline laboratory values (coagulation profile, liver function, renal function, full blood count, and electrolytes).

Intraoperative variables included concurrent organ transplants, the volume of administered blood products and fluids (albumin, plasmalyte, pRBC, FFP, cryoprecipitate, platelets, autologous wash cells, and organ donor wash cells), and total fluid volume.

Statistical analyses

Statistical analyses were performed using R v4.5.0 [26], with the packages MatchIt (4.7.1) [27] for PSM, and survival (3.8.3) [28] and coxphf (1.13.4) [29] for survival analysis. All data were thoroughly assessed for normality, outliers, and missing values. Outliers, identified visually and statistically, were retained following reconciliation with electronic health records, acknowledging the expected clinical extremes within this cohort. Normality was evaluated using the Shapiro-Wilk test and Q-Q plots, with non-parametric tests applied when assumptions were violated. Variables with less than 5% missingness were considered to have minimal missing data. For variables with greater than 5% missingness, Little’s MCAR test and comparative profiling suggested that the data were unlikely to be missing completely at random and were more consistent with a missing at random mechanism. Given the minimal missingness in key propensity score and outcome variables, and the availability of composite scores such as MELD and DRI that captured several laboratory components, a complete-case analysis was performed (S1 Table). Multiple imputation was not performed, as missingness in the primary analytic variables was limited and imputation of secondary laboratory variables was unlikely to materially affect the primary analysis.

After evaluating multiple matching configurations, an optimal 1:1 strategy without replacement was used to match UMT and MT recipients. Propensity for UMT was estimated using 11 clinically relevant preoperative variables: age, sex, BMI, transplant indication, MELD-3 score, baseline albumin, baseline platelets, DRI, donation pathway, cold ischaemia time, and partial graft transplantation. Covariate balance before and after matching was assessed by comparing standardised mean differences (SMD), visualised via Love plots, with an SMD < 0.1 indicating adequate balance..

Continuous variables are presented as mean ± standard deviation or median [interquartile range], based on their distribution. Categorical variables are reported as frequencies and percentages. For unmatched group comparisons, the Student’s t-test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for continuous variables, and the chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test for categorical variables. In the matched cohort, the paired t-test or Wilcoxon signed-rank test was applied for continuous variables, while McNemar’s test was used for binary variables. Logistic regression was used for binary outcomes in the unmatched cohort, and conditional logistic regression stratified by matched pair was used for the matched cohort. When conditional logistic regression was infeasible due to sparse data or quasi-complete separation, non-parametric tests were utilised; if statistical comparison remained infeasible, descriptive statistics were reported.

Survival analyses used Kaplan–Meier curves with log-rank tests and Cox proportional hazards regression. A standard Cox model was fitted in the unmatched cohort, and a conditional Cox model stratified by matched pair was used in the matched cohort. Mortality was analysed with patient death as the event of interest. Graft loss was analysed separately using a cause-specific Cox model in which deaths without prior graft failure were censored, yielding hazard ratios that are directly comparable to the primary mortality analysis; formal competing-risks regression was not undertaken because of the small number of graft-failure events and the exploratory nature of the study. The proportional hazards assumption was assessed using Schoenfeld residuals.

At 90 days, zero mortality events in the MT group resulted in complete separation, necessitating Firth’s penalised Cox and logistic regression to obtain estimates. This approach was applied only where standard models failed to converge. Formal assessment of the proportional hazards assumption was not performed for these models, as Schoenfeld residuals are not defined for Firth’s penalised likelihood. This approach preserves the time-to-event framework in the primary analysis.

Three sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the primary findings. First, UMT recipients were compared with all non-UMT recipients (<20 L of total fluids) using a 1:3 nearest-neighbour propensity-score matching approach. Covariate balance was assessed using SMDs.

Second, a pRBC-centred sensitivity analysis was conducted to address potential conflation of physiologically distinct fluid types in the primary analysis. Intraoperative pRBC units transfused were used to define the exposure groups: an MT group (10–15 units) and a UMT group (≥15 units). The lower MT boundary (≥10 units) is consistent with the literature. While a UMT threshold of ≥20 units was initially considered, a threshold of ≥15 units was adopted to ensure sufficient sample size for matching and subsequent analysis. A nearest-neighbour 1:1 strategy with a caliper of 0.2 standard deviations was used. Covariate balance was assessed using SMDs.

Third, a time-period sensitivity analysis was performed to assess whether secular changes in clinical practice over the 15-year study period could account for the observed association between UMT and patient survival in the primary analysis. The median transplant date (29 October 2018) was used to define two temporal periods: an early era (December 2009 to October 2018) and a contemporary era (October 2018 to December 2023). Rather than splitting the matched cohort by era, which would separate matched pairs transplanted in different eras, the transplant era was incorporated as a covariate within the existing conditional Cox models in the primary analysis. Era-adjusted models were fitted to test whether the UMT-mortality association persisted after accounting for the transplant period. Additionally, models fitted with an interaction term (UMT × era) were used to assess whether the magnitude of the UMT effect differed between eras. The 90-day patient survival was not modelled due to complete separation within eras, rendering Cox models not estimable.

A two-tailed p-value < 0.05 was considered significant. Effect sizes were estimated and are presented with 95% confidence intervals.

Results

Participants

In total, 993 patients received a transfusion during their procedure over the study period, of which 93 were excluded as they were combined cardiac-liver or lung-liver co-transplants or paediatric transplants. Of 900 eligible cases screened, 594 were excluded for receiving <10 L of intraoperative fluids within 24 hours, leaving 306 eligible patients for the unmatched analysis: 95 in the UMT group and 211 in the MT group. Subsequently, optimal 1:1 matching without replacement yielded 94 well-balanced matched pairs (n = 188), with 118 patients excluded from the matched cohort. Fig 1 presents a detailed flow diagram of participant inclusion and exclusion.

Fig 1. Flow diagram of participant inclusion and exclusion.

Fig 1

Baseline characteristics

Table 1 presents the baseline demographic, clinical, laboratory, and donor characteristics for the unmatched cohort (n = 306) and the matched cohort (n = 188). The complete list of laboratory and donor variables is available in S2 Table. In the unmatched cohort, the UMT and MT groups were comparable across most recipient and donor variables, including recipient age (median 58.2 vs 56.6 years, p = 0.604), sex (66.3% vs 73.0% male, p = 0.276), and MELD score (median 19.0 vs 21.0, p = 0.226). Only three variables showed statistically significant differences: baseline ALT (median 32.0 vs. 41.0 IU/L, p = 0.039), cold ischaemia time (median 376.5 vs. 331.0 min, p = 0.032), and total ischaemia time (median 431.0 vs. 376.5 min, p = 0.008).

Table 1. Core baseline recipient, donor and intraoperative characteristics before and after matching.

Variable Unmatched (n = 306) Matched (n = 188)
UMT MT p SMD UMT MT p SMD
Age (years) 58.2 [49.7–63.8] 56.6 [49.5–63.3] 0.604 0.071 57.8 [49.5–63.6] 56.9 [49.7–62.3] 0.757 0.019
Sex: male, n (%) 63 (66.3) 154 (73) 0.276 0.160† 62 (66) 65 (69.1) 0.760 0.067
BMI (kg/m2) 28.8 [24.8–32.7] 27.6 [24.0–32.3] 0.364 0.146† 28.8 [24.8–32.8] 28.1 [24.5–33.6] 0.871 0.038
Transplantation indication
 Chronic liver disease, n (%) 51 (53.7) 102 (48.3) 0.326 0.084 50 (53.2) 50 (53.2) 0.913 0.000
 Cancer 24 (25.3) 67 (31.8) 0.156† 24 (25.5) 27 (28.7) 0.073
 Acute liver failure 2 (2.1) 14 (6.6) 0.328† 2 (2.1) 3 (3.2) 0.074
 Metabolic disease 3 (3.2) 3 (1.4) 0.098 3 (3.2) 2 (2.1) 0.061
 Other 11 (11.6) 17 (8.1) 0.135† 11 (11.7) 8 (8.5) 0.099
 Re-transplantation 4 (4.2) 8 (3.8) 0.065 4 (4.3) 4 (4.3) 0.000
Preoperative clinical and laboratory characteristics
 MELD-Na 23.5 ± 8.7 24.0 ± 8.3 0.628 – 23.6 ± 8.7 23.3 ± 7.9 0.745 –
 MELD-3 21.8 [15.1–28.9] 22.3 [16.6–29.0] 0.453 0.060 21.9 [15.4–29.0] 22.3 [15.7–28.1] 0.754 0.021
 Baseline albumin (g/L) 29.0 [26.0–33.0] 31.0 [26.0–36.0] 0.234 0.144† 29.0 [26.0–33.0] 31.0 [26.2–35.8] 0.448 0.100†
 Baseline platelets (×109/L) 72.0 [49.0–115.5] 65.0 [48.0–95.0] 0.122 0.244† 71.5 [49.0–113.2] 73.0 [52.2–118.5] 0.871 0.039
Donor and graft characteristics
 Donor pathway: DCD, n (%) 9 (9.5) 14 (6.6) 0.482 0.126† 9 (9.6) 9 (9.6) >0.999 0.000
 Donor Risk Index (DRI) 1.4 [1.3–1.8] 1.4 [1.1–1.7] 0.189 0.170† 1.4 [1.3–1.8] 1.5 [1.2–1.8] 0.801 0.020
 Partial graft, n (%) 4 (4.2) 11 (5.2) >0.999 0.125† 3 (3.2) 4 (4.3) >0.999 0.061
Intraoperative characteristics
 Cold ischaemia time (min) 376.5 [287.5–447.8] 331.0 [271.8–407.0] 0.032* 0.251† 370.9 ± 110.2 368.1 ± 96.1 0.855 0.025
 Warm ischaemia time (min) 48.0 [40.2–56.8] 45.0 [40.0–51.2] 0.051 – 48.0 [40.2–56.8] 47.0 [41.0–53.0] 0.086 –
 Total ischaemia time (min) 431.0 [332.5–501.5] 376.5 [316.0–460.0] 0.008* – 425.7 ± 114.7 416.0 ± 97.4 0.529 –
Intraoperative transfusion and fluid
 Albumex (L) 2.5 [2.1–3.6] 1.3 [1.1–1.6] <0.001* – 2.5 [2.1–3.6] 1.3 [1.1–1.6] <0.001* –
 Plasmalyte (L) 14.0 [11.0–18.5] 7.0 [6.0–8.0] <0.001* – 14.0 [11.0–18.0] 7.0 [6.0–8.0] <0.001* –
 Packed red blood cells (unit) 14.0 [10.7–20.0] 6.3 [4.0–10.0] <0.001* – 14.0 [10.6–19.5] 6.8 [4.2–10.0] <0.001* –
 Fresh frozen plasma (unit) 6.0 [4.0–8.0] 2.0 [1.0–4.0] <0.001* – 6.0 [4.0–8.0] 2.0 [1.0–4.0] <0.001* –
 Platelets (unit) 3.0 [2.0–4.0] 1.0 [1.0–2.0] <0.001* – 3.0 [2.0–4.0] 1.5 [1.0–2.0] <0.001* –
 Total volume (L) 27.4 [22.6–39.1] 13.2 [11.3–15.5] <0.001* – 27.2 [22.6–38.3] 13.1 [11.1–15.5] <0.001* –

Continuous variables are presented as mean ± standard deviation or median [interquartile range]. Categorical variables are presented as frequencies (percentages). For unmatched comparisons, the independent t-test, the Mann-Whitney U test, the Chi-square test, and Fisher’s exact test were used. For matched comparisons, the paired t-test, the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, McNemar’s test, McNemar’s exact test and the Stuart-Maxwell test were used. Non-parametric tests were used if regression did not converge; descriptive statistics were reported if comparison was infeasible. *p < 0.05 indicates statistical significance. †SMD > 0.1. Abbreviations: ALP, alkaline phosphatase; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate transaminase; BMI, body mass index; DCD, donation after cardiac death; FMS, fluid management system; GEMA, Gender-Equity Model for Liver Allocation; GGT, gamma-glutamyl transferase; MELD-3, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease 3.0; MELD-Na, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease sodium-corrected variant; MT, massive transfusion; SMD, standardised mean difference; UMT, ultramassive transfusion.

Various matching strategies utilising alternative ratios, calipers and algorithms were evaluated; an optimal 1:1 strategy provided the strongest overall balance according to the Love plots of SMDs after matching (S1 Fig; S3 Table). After propensity score matching, all covariates achieved adequate balance (Fig 2). Matched groups showed no residual imbalance in key clinical variables, such as MELD score, ascites, and donor pathway. Although donor GGT remained statistically different, this was considered clinically negligible given the absence of differences in other liver enzyme measures, indicating satisfactory overall matching quality.

Fig 2. Love plot of covariate balance after 1:1 optimal matching without replacement.

Fig 2

Standardised mean differences (SMDs) for baseline covariates are compared before and after matching. The vertical dashed line at SMD = 0.1 indicates the threshold for adequate balance.

As expected, UMT recipients received significantly greater volumes of blood products and fluids in both the matched and unmatched cohorts (all p < 0.001), except for washed donor blood, for which both cohorts received negligible volumes (unmatched p = 0.664; matched p = 0.407). In the matched cohort, UMT recipients consistently received higher volumes of blood products, including pRBC, FFP, platelets, albumin, and crystalloids. The median total fluid volume was 27.2 L vs 13.1 L after matching, confirming a clear exposure contrast between groups.

Patient survival

In the matched cohort, UMT recipients experienced markedly reduced survival rates across all measured time points compared to MT recipients (Table 2). At 90 days, mortality was 11.7% in the UMT group and 0% in the MT group. This survival difference persisted at 3 years (20.2% vs. 7.4%; OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.14–6.46, p = 0.024) and throughout the follow-up period (27.7% vs. 14.9%; OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.02–4.29, p = 0.044). Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves (Fig 3; S2 Fig) demonstrated separation early after transplantation, which widened over time (90-day log-rank p < 0.001; 3-year p = 0.010; and overall p = 0.012). In the conditional Cox regression (Table 3), UMT exposure was associated with a significantly elevated risk of mortality after 3 years (HR 2.57, 95% CI 1.07–6.16; p = 0.034), which persisted throughout the follow-up period (HR 2.56, 95% CI 1.18–5.52; p = 0.017). Complete separation precluded convergence of the conditional Cox model at 90 days; Firth’s penalised logistic and Cox regression was therefore applied, yielding statistically significant odds (OR 26.03, 95% CI 3.31–3359.69, p < 0.001; Table 2) and hazard (HR 24.30, 95% CI 3.17–3,119, p < 0.001; Table 3) of mortality at 90 days in UMT recipients. The wide confidence intervals likely reflect the sparse events at 90 days. The Firth model could not be stratified by matched pair and is interpreted as supplementary evidence supporting the primary survival analyses.

Table 2. Perioperative and long-term outcomes in the propensity-matched cohort.

Outcome Matched (n = 188)
UMT MT Effect size

(95% CI)
p
Mortality
 90-day mortality, n (%)† 11 (11.7) 0 (0.0) 26.03 (3.31–3359.69)† <0.001*
 3-year mortality, n (%) 19 (20.2) 7 (7.4) 2.71 (1.14–6.46) 0.024*
 Overall mortality, n (%) 26 (27.7) 14 (14.9) 2.09 (1.02–4.29) 0.044*
Graft outcomes
 PNF, n (%) 5 (5.3) 1 (1.1) – § 0.125
 EAD, n (%) 41 (43.6) 32 (34.0) 1.41 (0.82–2.43) 0.219
 90-day graft loss, n (%) 6 (6.4) 2 (2.1) 5.00 (0.58–42.80) 0.142
 3-year graft loss, n (%) 10 (10.6) 3 (3.2) 4.50 (0.97–20.83) 0.054
 Overall graft loss, n (%) 10 (10.6) 5 (5.3) 2.25 (0.69–7.31) 0.177
Thrombotic complications
Hepatic artery thrombosis (HAT)
 30-day HAT, n (%) 1 (1.1) 0 (0.0) – § – §
 Overall HAT, n (%) 3 (3.2) 0 (0.0) – § – §
Portal vein thrombosis (PVT)
 30-day PVT, n (%) 1 (1.1) 1 (1.1) 1.00 (0.06–15.99) >0.999
 Overall PVT, n (%) 5 (5.3) 1 (1.1) 5.00 (0.58–42.80) 0.142
Hepatic vein thrombosis (HVT)
 30-day HVT, n (%) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) – § – §
 Overall HVT, n (%) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) – § – §
Composite thrombosis
 30-day HAT or PVT, n (%) 2 (2.1) 1 (1.1) 2.00 (0.18–22.06) 0.571
 Overall HAT or PVT, n (%) 8 (8.5) 1 (1.1) 8.00 (1.00–63.96) 0.050*
 30-day other thrombosis, n (%) 3 (3.2) 3 (3.2) 1.50 (0.25–8.98) 0.657
 Overall other thrombosis, n (%) 6 (6.4) 5 (5.3) 1.20 (0.37–3.93) 0.763
 30-day any thrombosis, n (%) 5 (5.3) 3 (3.2) 1.67 (0.40–6.97) 0.484
 Overall any thrombosis, n (%) 13 (13.8) 6 (6.4) 2.17 (0.82–5.70) 0.117
Renal outcomes
Acute kidney injury (AKI), n (%) 64 (68.1) 68 (72.3) 0.81 (0.43–1.53) 0.517
AKI Stage distribution, n (%)
 No AKI 30 (31.9) 27 (28.7) −0.14 (−0.40–0.14) 0.294
 Stage 1 41 (43.6) 37 (39.4)
 Stage 2 15 (16) 20 (21.3)
 Stage 3 8 (8.5) 10 (10.6)
LOS (days), median [IQR] 29.0 [14.0–53.5] 22.5 [14.0–39.5] 0.14 (−0.09–0.35) 0.261

Continuous variables are presented as mean ± standard deviation or median [interquartile range]. Categorical variables are presented as frequencies (percentages). The paired t-test or the Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used for continuous or ordinal outcomes. The McNemar’s test, McNemar’s exact test, or conditional logistic regression was used for binary outcomes. Non-parametric tests were reported if regression did not converge; descriptive statistics were reported if statistical comparison was not feasible. *p < 0.05 indicates statistical significance. §Effect size or p-value not estimable due to sparse data or zero-cell counts. †Firth’s penalised logistic regression was applied at the 90-day time point to obtain an estimate. Effect sizes were reported as odds ratios for binary outcomes, rank-biserial r for ordinal or continuous outcomes. Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; EAD, early allograft dysfunction; LOS, length of stay; MT, massive transfusion; PNF, primary non-function; UMT, ultramassive transfusion.

Fig 3. Early and intermediate patient survival in the propensity-matched cohort.

Fig 3

Kaplan-Meier curves displaying survival probability in the propensity-matched cohort, comparing ultramassive transfusion (≥20 L intraoperative fluids) to massive transfusion (10–20 L intraoperative fluids). Log-rank p-values are provided in each panel. (A) 90-day patient survival: Survival was significantly lower in the UMT group (log-rank p < 0.001). (B) 3-year patient survival (3 years): Survival remained meaningfully lower in the UMT group (log-rank p = 0.010).

Table 3. Conditional Cox proportional hazards regression for patient and graft survival in the propensity-matched cohort.

Outcome HR (95% CI) p PH Global p-value
Patient survival
 90-day survival§ – – –
 90-day survival† 24.30 (3.17–3,119) <0.001* –
 3-year survival 2.57 (1.07–6.16) 0.034* 0.279
 Overall survival 2.56 (1.18–5.52) 0.017* 0.547
Graft survival
 90-day graft survival 3.00 (0.61–14.86) 0.178 1.000
 3-year graft survival 4.50 (0.97–20.83) 0.054 0.445
 Overall graft survival 4.50 (0.97–20.83) 0.054 0.445

Conditional Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified by matched pair were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR), 95% confidence intervals (CI), and p-values comparing ultramassive transfusion (≥20 L intraoperative fluids) with massive transfusion (10–20 L) across 90-day, 3-year, and overall follow-up periods. The proportional hazards assumption was verified using Schoenfeld residuals and held for all reported models (PH Global p > 0.05). §The conditional Cox model for 90-day patient survival did not converge due to sparse events. †Firth’s penalised Cox regression was applied at the 90-day time point to obtain an estimate; the proportional hazards test was deferred (N/A). *p < 0.05 indicates statistical significance. Abbreviations: HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; PH, proportional hazards; N/A, not applicable.

Graft and other clinical outcomes

Graft loss was analysed using cause-specific models, with death before graft failure treated as a censoring event. The association between UMT and graft loss was less clear than with patient survival. In the matched cohort, UMT recipients exhibited higher overall rates of graft loss compared to MT recipients across all postoperative periods; however, these differences were not significant (Tables 2 and 3). Despite the KM curve for graft survival showing a statistically significant difference between the groups at 3 years (log-rank p = 0.037), this was not consistently corroborated with the KM curves at 90 days (log-rank p = 0.140) or overall (log-rank p = 0.114) (Fig 4, S2 Fig). While the KM analysis suggests an intermediate-term effect, the conditional logistic and Cox regression models do not corroborate robust evidence of an association between UMT and graft loss at any time point.

Fig 4. Early and intermediate graft survival in the propensity-matched cohort.

Fig 4

Kaplan-Meier curves displaying survival probability in the propensity-matched cohort, comparing ultramassive transfusion (≥20 L intraoperative fluids) to massive transfusion (10–20 L intraoperative fluids). Log-rank p-values are provided in each panel. (A) 90-day graft survival: The difference was not statistically significant (log-rank p = 0.140). (B) 3-year graft survival: Graft survival was significantly lower in the UMT group (log-rank p = 0.037).

The remaining secondary outcomes largely showed no statistically significant difference between the UMT and MT groups in the matched cohort (Table 2). PNF was observed in 5.3% of UMT recipients compared to 1.1% of MT recipients, but this did not reach significance (McNemar’s p = 0.125). Similarly, there was no significant association between UMT and EAD (43.6% vs. 34.0%, OR 1.41, 95% CI 0.82–2.43, p = 0.219). The only thrombotic complication to demonstrate borderline statistical significance was the composite outcome of overall hepatic artery thrombosis (HAT) or portal vein thrombosis (PVT), which was more frequent in the UMT group (8.5% vs. 1.1%, OR 8.00, 95% CI 1.00–63.96, p = 0.050). All other individual or composite thrombotic events were not significant. There was no significant difference in the incidence (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.43–1.53, p = 0.517) or severity (OR −0.14, 95% CI −0.40–0.14, p = 0.294) of AKI between groups. Although the median LOS was longer for UMT recipients (29.0 days vs. 22.5 days), this was not significant (p = 0.261).

The outcomes from the unmatched cohort consistently corroborated the main analysis. Conditional logistic and Cox regression analyses (S4 and S5 Tables) demonstrated significantly higher mortality among UMT recipients across all time points (all p ≤ 0.01). The KM curves (S3 Fig) likewise demonstrated markedly lower survival probabilities for UMT recipients across 90-day, 3-year, and overall follow-up periods. In contrast, the relationship between UMT and graft survival was not statistically significant at any time point. Unlike in the primary analysis, there was a statistically significant association with EAD, but the association with the composite thrombotic complication of HAT or PVT was not re-established.

Sensitivity analyses

Sensitivity Analysis I compared UMT recipients (n = 94) to a broader control group of all non-UMT recipients (<20 L of intraoperative fluids; n = 282) using a nearest neighbour 1:3 matching strategy, which reinforced the primary conclusions with increased statistical power. All covariates achieved adequate balance after matching, although partial graft status was borderline (SMD = 0.101) (S6 Table). Patient survival remained significant at all time points under conditional logistic regression (all p ≤ 0.001; S7 Table), KM curves (all p < 0.001; S4 Fig) and univariate conditional Cox regression (all p < 0.001; S8 Table). UMT recipients had increased odds of suffering PNF, EAD, 3-year graft loss and prolonged LOS (all p < 0.05)as well as increased hazard of 3-year and overall graft loss (all p < 0.001; S8 Table). Moreover, there was a survival difference in the 3-year (log-rank p = 0.012) and overall graft loss (log-rank p = 0.030) KM curves (S4 Fig). These findings provide further support for the tenuous associations observed in the primary and unmatched analyses. However, this graft loss effect was not corroborated at 90 days in this sensitivity analysis. Overall, secondary and exploratory outcomes were generally consistent with the primary findings, with no robust new signals detected.

Sensitivity Analysis II examined whether the UMT-mortality association detected in the primary analysis was specific to the composite fluid definition by redefining the exposure using units of intraoperative pRBC transfused only. The conventional UMT threshold of ≥20 units pRBC was evaluated initially but yielded an insufficient number of patients for further analysis. The analysis was conducted using a UMT threshold of ≥15 units pRBC (n = 48) compared with MT (10–15 units; n = 48). After 1:1 nearest-neighbour matching with a caliper of 0.2 standard deviations, two covariates remained marginally above the conventional balance threshold after matching (cold ischaemia time, SMD = 0.129; partial graft, SMD = 0.157; S9 Table). No statistically significant associations were observed between UMT and any outcome in the matched sensitivity cohort (S10 Table). The hazard of death trended toward worse outcomes for UMT recipients at 90 days (HR 2.00, 95% CI 0.50–8.00, p = 0.327), 3 years and overall (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.43–2.92, p = 0.808), but did not reach statistical significance at any time point (S11 Table). KM curves (S5 Fig) showed no significant differences between groups across any time point for patient survival (90-day log-rank p = 0.307; 3-year log-rank p = 0.414; and overall log-rank p = 0.585) and graft survival (90-day log-rank p = 0.420; 3-year log-rank p = 0.974; and overall log-rank p = 0.871). Whilst not significant, the directional consistency of worse patient survival for UMT recipients corroborates the primary analysis, possibly suggesting this sensitivity analysis was underpowered to reveal a mortality signal.

Sensitivity Analysis III assessed whether secular changes in clinical practice over the 15-year study period could account for the observed UMT-mortality association, using the median transplant date (29 October 2018) as the era cut point to create an early era (34 UMT, 53 MT in the matched cohort) and a contemporary era (60 UMT, 41 MT). Era-adjusted conditional Cox regression analyses demonstrated that the UMT-mortality association persisted after accounting for transplant period, with hazard ratios virtually unchanged from the primary analysis for both 3-year mortality (HR 2.55, 95% CI 1.06–6.11, p = 0.036) and overall mortality (HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.17–5.49, p = 0.018; S12 Table). Testing for interaction between transplant era and UMT status revealed no evidence that the effect of UMT on mortality differed between eras (3-year: p = 0.350; overall: p = 0.266), suggesting the effect of UMT on survival was consistent throughout the study period. At the 90-day time point, complete separation persisted within both eras such that the era-adjusted Cox model did not converge. Overall, these findings suggest that the UMT-mortality association is not attributable to secular changes in transplant practice.

Discussion

Key findings

In this propensity-matched cohort study of adult OLT recipients, UMT was consistently associated with significantly worse patient survival compared to MT. The robustness of this mortality signal across the early (90 days), intermediate (3 years), and long-term periods, as well as its persistence in the unmatched cohort and across two of the three sensitivity analyses, supports a consistent association between UMT and worse patient survival.The pRBC-centred sensitivity analysis produced directionally consistent but non-significant results, most likely reflecting insufficient statistical power rather than the absence of effect. The association between UMT and graft survival, as well as other exploratory secondary outcomes (including PNF, EAD, thrombotic complications, AKI, and hospital LOS), was less consistent or not significant, likely due to limitations in statistical power.

Relationship to the existing literature

Our primary finding aligns with existing evidence demonstrating a strong correlation between transfusion volume and patient survival in OLT [8,10,14]. Specifically, prior work in OLT revealed higher mortality in a propensity-matched comparison of MT and non-MT recipients [14]. Another study revealed a dose-dependent effect on mortality in OLT patients who met the MT threshold [10]. This is further supported by studies identifying specific high-volume thresholds, such as receipt of more than 28 units of pRBCs, as a risk factor after transplantation [8].

Our study extends this work by directly comparing UMT against MT in a propensity-matched cohort, suggesting that escalating volumes beyond the conventional MT threshold define a clinically distinct and high-risk clinical phenotype in OLT. Interestingly, patient survival was relatively satisfactory despite the extreme nature of the intervention; the matched cohort had an overall 90-day survival rate of 88.3%, consistent with a UMT study that reported a survival rate of 81.6% during the same perioperative window for volumes exceeding 50 units of pRBCs [16]. Such relatively high survival rates may suggest that high-volume transfusions are not futile, at least in the context of OLT, which is a point of contention in the literature [11,17]. The survival deficit associated with UMT persisted and was robust even after adjustment for baseline confounding and sensitivity analyses, suggesting that UMT exposure is a clinically high-risk phenotype. The mechanisms that may underlie this association are likely multifactorial, involving the sequelae of massive resuscitation, such as haemodilutional coagulopathy, acid-base derangements, hypothermia, and endothelial injury stemming from the underlying procedural complexity.While a recent UMT study found that 30-day mortality was not correlated with escalating intraoperative transfusion volumes [24], cross-study comparisons should be interpreted cautiously due to the heterogeneous definitions of MT and UMT as well as different follow-up windows. Notwithstanding, the evidence overarchingly demonstrates that transfusion volume is a clinically meaningful prognostic indicator in OLT.

The association between UMT and graft outcomes was less robust than for patient survival. Our mortality-censored Cox model showed only a borderline association with graft loss at 3 years. However, the elevated hazard became statistically significant at 3 years and overall, when the analysis was performed in the higher-powered sensitivity cohort comparing UMT with all non-UMT recipients (<20 L), suggesting a possible pattern of increasing risk across transfusion thresholds.

Similarly, a higher frequency of rare early outcomes, including PNF and certain thrombotic complications, was observed among UMT recipients. The small number of events for these secondary outcomes in the primary matched cohort likely contributed to the wide confidence intervals and statistical non-significance. The estimates of these secondary outcomes should be interpreted cautiously, as they likely reflect limited statistical power rather than robust evidence of no association, particularly given that our sensitivity analysis with a broader comparator group did find significant associations for PNF and EAD. However, these associations were not corroborated in other sensitivity analyses. The association with thrombotic complications was non-significant in contrast to expectations based on recent literature [30].

Other exploratory secondary outcomes were not significant, including the incidence and severity of postoperative AKI. The significant association between UMT and EAD observed in the unmatched cohort was attenuated after matching, suggesting the initial correlation was predominantly driven by baseline confounding, rather than exposure to extreme transfusion volumes. This is consistent with another study that found an association between EAD and pRBC units in univariate but not multivariate analysis [31]. However, the significant association between UMT and EAD observed in Sensitivity Analysis I, which used a larger control group, suggests that the attenuation in the primary matched cohort may also partly reflect limited statistical power rather than confounding alone. Our primary analysis did not identify a significant association with prolonged hospital LOS, replicating the findings of an MT study of OLT patients [14], but contrasting with a recent liver transplant UMT study [24], which reported a significant association with LOS in intensive care.

Clinical implications

Our findings suggest that UMT recipients are a distinct, high-risk clinical subpopulation of OLT patients, possibly independent of pre-transplant morbidity. Identifying patients who receive ≥ 20 L of intraoperative fluids during their transplant should prompt heightened perioperative vigilance and judicious resource allocation. Our findings inform anticipatory measures such as early engagement of critical care services, targeted postoperative surveillance in the early (90 days) and intermediate (3 years) periods, and the need for OLT-specific massive transfusion or UMT protocols. The persistent survival difference observed in the long term suggests this subpopulation of patients may warrant long-term postoperative follow-up, potentially including lifestyle or pharmacological interventions, to recognise transfusion-related sequelae and improve patient survival in the early, intermediate and long-term periods.

Strengths and limitations

This study’s primary strength lies in leveraging PSM to mitigate confounding and create comparable UMT and MT groups. This methodological approach provides robust estimates of the relationship between extreme transfusion volume and patient outcomes. The confidence in our primary finding is supported by its consistency and robustness across unmatched, matched and sensitivity analyses using alternative matching strategies.

This study has several limitations. The retrospective design introduces the possibility of residual confounding, as PSM can only account for measured variables included in the data. Critically, the propensity score model was constructed using preoperative variables only. Key intraoperative factors that are likely to influence both transfusion volume and patient outcomes [14,16], including estimated blood loss, vasopressor requirement and surgical complications, were not captured in the transplant registry data. Thus, UMT may reflect intraoperative severity rather than independently cause worse outcomes. Patients receiving such extreme resuscitation volumes are plausibly those who also receive technically challenging surgeries or suffer catastrophic blood loss due to other intraoperative factors. This confounding by indication cannot be fully addressed by the study design, and the observed association between UMT and mortality should be interpreted with caution. Survivor bias is also a potential concern; patients who survived long enough to receive extreme transfusion volumes and to be captured in the registry may represent a physiologically resilient subgroup, potentially leading to underestimation of the mortality risk associated with UMT.

Regarding temporal confounding, a prespecified time-period sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the UMT-mortality association persisted after adjusting for transplant era and was consistent in magnitude across the early (2009–2018) and contemporary (2018–2023) periods, with no significant era interaction detected. This finding suggests that secular changes in clinical practice over the 15-year study period are unlikely to account for the observed association. Graft survival and secondary outcomes were not included in the time-period sensitivity analysis, as no significant and consistent association were observed for these endpoints in the primary analysis or other sensitivity analyses.

The pRBC sensitivity analysis was limited by the small number of patients classifiable under the conventional threshold of ≥20 units; the lower threshold of ≥15 units used may not fully capture the extreme transfusion burden intended by the UMT designation. This threshold is uncommon in prior literature [11], further limiting the interpretability of these results. The non-significant findings at this threshold cannot exclude a pRBC-specific effect at higher transfusion volumes, especially given that the direction of effect was consistent with the primary analysis across all time points.

While our sample size was substantial for a single-centre OLT study focused on UMT, it is considerably smaller than those in multicentre studies of high-volume transfusions in trauma [23,32]. Our study was likely underpowered to detect robust differences for rarer outcomes, which predisposed instability and insignificance in our secondary exploratory outcomes, as demonstrated in the tenuous relationship between transfusion volume and graft loss, where a significant effect was observed at 3 years but not at other perioperative windows. The conditional Cox models for 3-year and overall graft survival in the primary analysis and patient survival in the pRBC-centred sensitivity analysis produced identical estimates, likely reflecting sparse event counts and underpowered analyses. Generalisability is limited as this study reflects practice at a single Australian quaternary referral centre with mature blood bank infrastructure. Differences in institutional resuscitation protocols, blood bank infrastructure, and resource constraints can impact patient outcomes [10,12] and, by extension, the findings reported in our study.

The inconsistent definitions of UMT and MT in the literature hinder cross-study comparisons, such as ≥ 20 units of pRBC in 24 hours for UMT in trauma [11], ≥ 6 units of pRBC in 24 hours for MT in OLT [10], or even ≥ 50 units of pRBC in 24 hours for ‘supermassive’ transfusions in OLT [16]. Most published definitions use blood product units alone, whereas this study defines transfusion burden as the total fluid volume, including crystalloids and colloids. While this definition captures the full burden of resuscitation and is consistent with prior work at our institution [24], it limits direct comparison with studies using pRBC-only thresholds. Thus, our findings may reflect differences in fluid management strategy rather than transfusion burden, introducing uncertainty when interpreting the significance of our findings. The attenuation of the mortality signal observed in our pRBC-centred sensitivity analysis is consistent with this interpretation, suggesting that the total resuscitative burden, including crystalloids and colloids, may be a more complete and clinically meaningful measure of intraoperative physiological stress than pRBC transfusion volume alone.

Finally, in interpreting 90-day mortality estimates in Tables 2 and 3, it is important to note that complete separation and sparse early events required the use of Firth’s penalised logistic and Cox models, resulting in very large effect estimates with extremely wide confidence intervals (for example, HR 24.30, 95% CI 3.17–3,119), which we consider descriptive support for an association rather than a reliable measure of a 26-fold increase in risk.

Implications for future research

The consistent association between UMT and mortality across all analyses identifies UMT as a high-risk, potentially modifiable exposure that warrants focused investigation. Future studies should aim to elucidate the mechanisms underlying this persistent survival deficit, including transfusion-related complications, endothelial injury, and unmeasured intraoperative factors, and to evaluate targeted strategies to mitigate risk, such as optimised component therapy, haemostatic interventions, and structured postoperative surveillance.

To strengthen causal inference, multicentre collaborations incorporating detailed intraoperative and postoperative data are needed to validate these findings and improve statistical power for rare outcomes. Future studies examining high-volume transfusion in OLT should consider reporting total fluid volumes alongside pRBC units to enable more comprehensive cross-study comparisons and to clarify whether the mortality signal is attributable to transfused blood products specifically or to the broader haemodynamic and haemodilutional consequences of extreme resuscitation. Finally, standardising definitions of massive and ultramassive transfusion in OLT is essential to harmonise research and facilitate cross-study comparisons, particularly in the non-trauma setting.

Conclusion

This study provides novel evidence that UMT is associated with significantly reduced patient survival in adult OLT recipients compared with MT. The consistent and persistent mortality signal observed across matched and unmatched cohorts, as well as sensitivity analyses, is consistent with a dose-dependent pattern of association, wherein extreme intraoperative fluid exposure may characterise a distinct, high-risk clinical phenotype. A pRBC-centred sensitivity analysis produced directionally consistent but non-significant results, most likely reflecting insufficient statistical power at the available threshold rather than the absence of effect. However, due to the limitations of our study, our findings cannot establish a causal relationship; UMT may reflect intraoperative severity rather than independently drive mortality. Nonetheless, our findings suggest that risk mitigation strategies should extend beyond immediate perioperative haemostatic optimisation to include heightened clinical vigilance and tailored long-term surveillance for UMT recipients. Future prospective, multicentre studies are needed to clarify underlying mechanisms, refine transfusion thresholds, and identify modifiable factors that may improve both short- and long-term outcomes in this vulnerable population.

Supporting information

S1 Fig. Unmatched analysis: Love plots of covariate balance across multiple propensity score matching strategies.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s001.pdf (295.8KB, pdf)
S2 Fig. Primary analysis: Long-term survival comparisons in the propensity-matched cohort.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s002.pdf (182KB, pdf)
S3 Fig. Unmatched analysis: Early, intermediate and long-term survival comparison in the unmatched cohort.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s003.pdf (433.8KB, pdf)
S4 Fig. Sensitivity analysis I (expanded comparator): Matched survival curves.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s004.pdf (432.3KB, pdf)
S5 Fig. Sensitivity analysis II (pRBC definition): Matched survival curves.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s005.pdf (420.3KB, pdf)
S1 Table. Unmatched analysis: Summary of missing data by variable.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s006.pdf (109.8KB, pdf)
S2 Table. Primary analysis: Evaluation of the covariate balance across multiple propensity score matching strategies.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s007.pdf (81KB, pdf)
S3 Table. Primary analysis: Complete baseline recipient, donor and intraoperative characteristics before and after matching.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s008.pdf (177.8KB, pdf)
S4 Table. Unmatched analysis: Perioperative and long-term outcomes.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s009.pdf (106KB, pdf)
S5 Table. Unmatched analysis: Conditional Cox proportional hazards regression for patient and graft survival.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s010.pdf (75.2KB, pdf)
S6 Table. Sensitivity analysis I (expanded comparator): Evaluation of covariate balance.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s011.pdf (73.2KB, pdf)
S7 Table. Sensitivity analysis I (expanded comparator): Perioperative and long-term outcomes.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s012.pdf (107.6KB, pdf)
S8 Table. Sensitivity analysis I (expanded comparator): Conditional Cox proportional hazards regression for patient and graft survival in the matched sensitivity cohort.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s013.pdf (76.7KB, pdf)
S9 Table. Sensitivity analysis II (pRBC exposure): Covariate balance assessment.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s014.pdf (73.2KB, pdf)
S10 Table. Sensitivity analysis II (pRBC exposure): Perioperative and long-term outcomes in the matched sensitivity cohort.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s015.pdf (118.4KB, pdf)
S11 Table. Sensitivity analysis II (pRBC exposure): Conditional Cox proportional hazards regression for patient and graft survival in the matched sensitivity cohort.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s016.pdf (77.8KB, pdf)
S12 Table. Sensitivity analysis III (time period): Conditional Cox proportional hazards regression for patient survival in the matched cohort.

(PDF)

pone.0349795.s017.pdf (90.5KB, pdf)
S1 File. De-identified Database.

(XLSX)

pone.0349795.s018.xlsx (736.7KB, xlsx)

Acknowledgments

Nil.

Data Availability

All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.

Funding Statement

The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.

References

  • 1.Howell J, Majumdar A, Fink M, Byrne M, McCaughan G, Strasser SI, et al. The Hidden Epidemic: The Prevalence and Impact of Concurrent Liver Diseases in Patients Undergoing Liver Transplantation in Australia and New Zealand. Transplant Direct. 2022;8(8):e1345. doi: 10.1097/TXD.0000000000001345 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 2.Laporte CCM, Brown B, Wilke TJ, Kassel CA. 2023 Clinical Update in Liver Transplantation. J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth. 2024;38(6):1390–6. doi: 10.1053/j.jvca.2024.02.029 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 3.Islam R, Kundu S, Jha SB, Rivera AP, Monar GV, Islam H, et al. Cirrhosis and coagulopathy: mechanisms of hemostasis changes in liver failure and their management. Cureus. 2022;14(4):e23785. doi: 10.7759/cureus.23785 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 4.Melkamu A, Woldu B, Sitotaw C, Seyoum M, Aynalem M. The magnitude and associated factors of coagulation abnormalities among liver disease patients at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital Northwest, Ethiopia, 2022. Thromb J. 2023;21(1):35. doi: 10.1186/s12959-023-00479-2 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 5.Wilke TJ, Vail EA, Gold AK, Mannes P, Uman AA, Bezinover D, et al. 2024 Clinical Update in Liver Transplantation. J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth. 2025;39(6):1547–55. doi: 10.1053/j.jvca.2025.02.032 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 6.Eghbal MH, Samadi K, Khosravi MB, Sahmeddini MA, Ghaffaripoor S, Ghorbani M, et al. The Impact of Preoperative Variables on Intraoperative Blood Loss and Transfusion Requirements During Orthotopic Liver Transplant. Exp Clin Transplant. 2019;17(4):507–12. doi: 10.6002/ect.2016.0325 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 7.Danforth D, Gabriel RA, Clark AI, Newhouse B, Khoche S, Vig S, et al. Preoperative risk factors for massive transfusion, prolonged ventilation requirements, and mortality in patients undergoing liver transplantation. Korean J Anesthesiol. 2020;73(1):30–5. doi: 10.4097/kja.19108 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 8.Rana A, Petrowsky H, Hong JC, Agopian VG, Kaldas FM, Farmer D, et al. Blood transfusion requirement during liver transplantation is an important risk factor for mortality. J Am Coll Surg. 2013;216(5):902–7. doi: 10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2012.12.047 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 9.Cleland S, Corredor C, Ye JJ, Srinivas C, McCluskey SA. Massive haemorrhage in liver transplantation: Consequences, prediction and management. World J Transplant. 2016;6(2):291–305. doi: 10.5500/wjt.v6.i2.291 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 10.Justo I, Marcacuzco A, Caso Ó, Manrique A, García-Sesma Á, García A, et al. Risk factors of massive blood transfusion in liver transplantation: consequences and a new index for prediction including the donor. Cir Esp (Engl Ed). 2023;101(10):684–92. doi: 10.1016/j.cireng.2023.09.002 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 11.Meyer CH, Bailey NM, Leslie SL, Thrasher K, Grady Z, Sanders M, et al. Defining Ultra-Massive Transfusion through a Systematic Review. Am J Surg. 2024;228:192–8. doi: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2023.09.024 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 12.McQuilten ZK, Flint AW, Green L, Sanderson B, Winearls J, Wood EM. Epidemiology of Massive Transfusion - A Common Intervention in Need of a Definition. Transfus Med Rev. 2021;35(4):73–9. doi: 10.1016/j.tmrv.2021.08.006 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 13.Napolitano LM. Hemostatic defects in massive transfusion: an update and treatment recommendations. Expert Rev Hematol. 2021;14(2):219–39. doi: 10.1080/17474086.2021.1858788 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 14.Tan L, Wei X, Yue J, Yang Y, Zhang W, Zhu T. Impact of Perioperative Massive Transfusion on Long Term Outcomes of Liver Transplantation: a Retrospective Cohort Study. Int J Med Sci. 2021;18(16):3780–7. doi: 10.7150/ijms.61697 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 15.Matthay ZA, Hellmann ZJ, Callcut RA, Matthay EC, Nunez-Garcia B, Duong W, et al. Outcomes after ultramassive transfusion in the modern era: An Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma multicenter study. J Trauma Acute Care Surg. 2021;91(1):24–33. doi: 10.1097/TA.0000000000003121 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 16.Lapisatepun W, Ma C, Lapisatepun W, Agopian V, Wray C, Xia VW. Super-massive transfusion during liver transplantation. Transfusion. 2023;63(9):1677–84. doi: 10.1111/trf.17496 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 17.Kim JS, Casem CF, Baral E, Inaba K, Kuza CM. Narrative Review: Is There a Transfusion Cutoff Value After Which Nonsurvivability Is Inevitable in Trauma Patients Receiving Ultramassive Transfusion? Anesth Analg. 2023;137(2):354–64. doi: 10.1213/ANE.0000000000006504 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 18.Pustavoitau A, Lesley M, Ariyo P, Latif A, Villamayor AJ, Frank SM, et al. Predictive Modeling of Massive Transfusion Requirements During Liver Transplantation and Its Potential to Reduce Utilization of Blood Bank Resources. Anesth Analg. 2017;124(5):1644–52. doi: 10.1213/ANE.0000000000001994 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 19.Doughty H, Green L, Callum J, Murphy MF, National Blood Transfusion Committee. Triage tool for the rationing of blood for massively bleeding patients during a severe national blood shortage: guidance from the National Blood Transfusion Committee. Br J Haematol. 2020;191(3):340–6. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 20.Saillant NN, Kornblith LZ, Moore H, Barrett C, Schreiber MA, Cotton BA, et al. The National Blood Shortage-An Impetus for Change. Ann Surg. 2022;275(4):641–3. doi: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000005393 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 21.Stanworth SJ, New HV, Apelseth TO, Brunskill S, Cardigan R, Doree C, et al. Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply and use of blood for transfusion. Lancet Haematol. 2020;7(10):e756–64. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3026(20)30186-1 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 22.Patel EU, Ness PM, Marshall CE, Gniadek T, Efron DT, Miller PM, et al. Blood Product Utilization Among Trauma and Nontrauma Massive Transfusion Protocols at an Urban Academic Medical Center. Anesth Analg. 2017;125(3):967–74. doi: 10.1213/ANE.0000000000002253 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 23.Dzik WS, Ziman A, Cohen C, Pai M, Lozano M, Kaufman RM, et al. Survival after ultramassive transfusion: a review of 1360 cases. Transfusion. 2016;56(3):558–63. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 24.Slifirski H, Raykateeraroj N, Armellini A, Hazard R, Zalcman J, Zhao J, et al. Ultra-massive fluid transfusion in adult liver transplant recipients: A single center observational study. PLoS One. 2025;20(6):e0325829. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0325829 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 25.Pham HP, Shaz BH. Update on massive transfusion. Br J Anaesth. 2013;111(suppl_1):i71–82. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 26.R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2021. [Google Scholar]
  • 27.Ho DE, Imai K, King G, Stuart EA. MatchIt: Nonparametric Preprocessing for Parametric Causal Inference. J Stat Soft. 2011;42(8). doi: 10.18637/jss.v042.i08 [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  • 28.Therneau T. A package for survival analysis in S. R package version. 2015;2(7):2014.
  • 29.Heinze G, Ploner M, Jiricka L, Steiner G. Coxphf: Cox regression with Firth’s penalized likelihood. 1.13.4 ed. 2023. [Google Scholar]
  • 30.Matsumura M, Sasaki K, Tokodai K, Miyazawa K, Fujio A, Ogasawara H, et al. Practical Coagulation Management in Liver Transplantation Through Point-of-Care Analysis Using the TEG 6s Global Hemostasis System in Japan. Tohoku J Exp Med. 2025;265(2):59–67. doi: 10.1620/tjem.2024.J087 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 31.Wiemann BA, Beetz O, Weigle CA, Tessmer P, Störzer S, Kleine-Döpke D, et al. Early Allograft Dysfunction after liver transplantation- definition, incidence and relevance in a single-centre analysis. Langenbecks Arch Surg. 2025;410(1):76. doi: 10.1007/s00423-025-03633-8 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  • 32.Dorken Gallastegi A, Secor JD, Maurer LR, Dzik WS, Saillant NN, Hwabejire JO, et al. Role of Transfusion Volume and Transfusion Rate as Markers of Futility During Ultramassive Blood Transfusion in Trauma. J Am Coll Surg. 2022;235(3):468–80. doi: 10.1097/XCS.0000000000000268 [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Decision Letter 0

Pavel Strnad

10 Mar 2026

-->PONE-D-26-07916-->-->Effects of massive transfusion (10-20 litres) versus ultramassive transfusion (≥20 litres) on mortality in adult liver transplant recipients: A propensity-score matched study-->-->PLOS One

Dear Dr. Weinberg,

Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process.

Please submit your revised manuscript by Apr 24 2026 11:59PM. If you will need more time than this to complete your revisions, please reply to this message or contact the journal office at plosone@plos.org. When you're ready to submit your revision, log on to https://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/ and select the 'Submissions Needing Revision' folder to locate your manuscript file.

Please include the following items when submitting your revised manuscript:-->

  • A letter that responds to each point raised by the academic editor and reviewer(s). You should upload this letter as a separate file labeled 'Response to Reviewers'.

  • A marked-up copy of your manuscript that highlights changes made to the original version. You should upload this as a separate file labeled 'Revised Manuscript with Track Changes'.

  • An unmarked version of your revised paper without tracked changes. You should upload this as a separate file labeled 'Manuscript'.

If you would like to make changes to your financial disclosure, please include your updated statement in your cover letter. Guidelines for resubmitting your figure files are available below the reviewer comments at the end of this letter.

If applicable, we recommend that you deposit your laboratory protocols in protocols.io to enhance the reproducibility of your results. Protocols.io assigns your protocol its own identifier (DOI) so that it can be cited independently in the future. For instructions see: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/submission-guidelines#loc-laboratory-protocols. Additionally, PLOS ONE offers an option for publishing peer-reviewed Lab Protocol articles, which describe protocols hosted on protocols.io. Read more information on sharing protocols at https://plos.org/protocols?utm_medium=editorial-email&utm_source=authorletters&utm_campaign=protocols.

We look forward to receiving your revised manuscript.

Kind regards,

Pavel Strnad

Academic Editor

PLOS One

Journal Requirements:

When submitting your revision, we need you to address these additional requirements.

1. Please ensure that your manuscript meets PLOS ONE's style requirements, including those for file naming. The PLOS ONE style templates can be found at

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/file?id=wjVg/PLOSOne_formatting_sample_main_body.pdf and

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/file?id=ba62/PLOSOne_formatting_sample_title_authors_affiliations.pdf.

2. We note that there is identifying data in the Supporting Information file < Deidentified Database_PLOS One_13Feb2026>. Due to the inclusion of these potentially identifying data, we have removed this file from your file inventory. Prior to sharing human research participant data, authors should consult with an ethics committee to ensure data are shared in accordance with participant consent and all applicable local laws.

Data sharing should never compromise participant privacy. It is therefore not appropriate to publicly share personally identifiable data on human research participants. The following are examples of data that should not be shared:

-Name, initials, physical address

-Ages more specific than whole numbers

-Internet protocol (IP) address

-Specific dates (birth dates, death dates, examination dates, etc.)

-Contact information such as phone number or email address

-Location data

-ID numbers that seem specific (long numbers, include initials, titled “Hospital ID”) rather than random (small numbers in numerical order)

Data that are not directly identifying may also be inappropriate to share, as in combination they can become identifying. For example, data collected from a small group of participants, vulnerable populations, or private groups should not be shared if they involve indirect identifiers (such as sex, ethnicity, location, etc.) that may risk the identification of study participants.

Additional guidance on preparing raw data for publication can be found in our Data Policy (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/data-availability#loc-human-research-participant-data-and-other-sensitive-data) and in the following article: http://www.bmj.com/content/340/bmj.c181.long.

Please remove or anonymize all personal information (<specific identifying information in file to be removed>), ensure that the data shared are in accordance with participant consent, and re-upload a fully anonymized data set. Please note that spreadsheet columns with personal information must be removed and not hidden as all hidden columns will appear in the published file.

3. If the reviewer comments include a recommendation to cite specific previously published works, please review and evaluate these publications to determine whether they are relevant and should be cited. There is no requirement to cite these works unless the editor has indicated otherwise.

[Note: HTML markup is below. Please do not edit.]

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

-->Comments to the Author

1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented. -->

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

-->2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? -->

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

-->3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.-->

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

-->4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.-->

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

-->5. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)-->

Reviewer #1: This retrospective single-centre study evaluates the association between ultramassive transfusion (≥20 L total fluids) and mortality in adult liver transplant recipients using propensity score matching. The topic is clinically relevant and the dataset represents a valuable institutional experience. The manuscript addresses an important clinical question regarding the impact of very high intraoperative transfusion volumes in liver transplantation. However, several methodological aspects limit the interpretation of the findings and should be clarified or more thoroughly discussed.

Major Comments:

The main limitation of the study is that the analysis does not establish a causal relationship between transfusion volume and mortality. Patients receiving ultramassive transfusion are very likely those experiencing the most severe intraoperative complications (e.g., major bleeding, technically difficult surgery, graft issues), which are themselves strong predictors of mortality. Therefore, ultramassive transfusion is likely a marker of intraoperative severity rather than an independent cause of worse outcomes. Although propensity score matching was performed, the model appears to include mainly preoperative variables and donor characteristics, while important intraoperative severity markers such as blood loss, operative duration, vasopressor requirement, or intraoperative complications were not included. This creates a high risk of residual confounding and confounding by indication. This issue should ideally be addressed through additional clarification or analyses if possible, or at least more clearly acknowledged and discussed as a key limitation of the study.

A second concern relates to the definition of the exposure variable. Massive and ultramassive transfusion are defined using total intraoperative fluid volume, including crystalloids and colloids. This differs from most definitions in the literature, which typically rely on the number of blood product units. Including non-blood fluids may reflect differences in anaesthetic fluid management strategies rather than transfusion burden alone, which complicates interpretation of the results. The rationale for this definition should be explained more clearly. If this approach cannot be further justified or explored analytically, its implications for interpretation should be explicitly acknowledged and discussed as a limitation.

Minor Comments:

There are several minor issues that should be addressed during revision. Some spelling and typographical errors are present in the manuscript and should be corrected. In addition, several internal references appear to be incorrect or unresolved (e.g., “Error! Reference source not found.”), suggesting formatting problems in the document. These should be carefully checked and corrected before publication.

Reviewer #2: This propensity-matched cohort study addresses a clinically important question in orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). The primary finding is credible and the study makes a meaningful contribution. Several methodological issues require revision before publication:

The mortality signal is robust: its consistency across the matched cohort, unmatched cohort, and 1:3 sensitivity analysis (at 90 days, 3 years, and overall follow-up) substantially strengthens confidence in the finding. The PSM with 11 preoperative covariates achieves excellent balance as shown by the Love plots. The 15-year single-centre dataset from a high-volume transplant unit ensures data consistency and sufficient case volume for a rare exposure. The transparent handling of underpowered secondary outcomes reflects appropriate statistical discipline.

Major Concerns

1. Confounding vs. Independent Risk — Causal Language

The PSM adjusts for preoperative variables only. Critical intraoperative factors (surgical complexity, operative duration, and bleeding aetiology) remain unmeasured. UMT may therefore reflect intraoperative factors rather than independently drive mortality, a distinction the design cannot resolve. The attenuation of the EAD association after matching illustrates this mechanism directly. Causal language in the abstract and conclusion (“independently associated,” “linked to”) should be replaced throughout with “associated with,” and the conclusion should explicitly acknowledge that causal inference is not supported.

2. Composite Fluid Definition

Combining crystalloids, colloids, and blood products into a single threshold conflates physiologically distinct entities. A sensitivity analysis using a pRBC-centred definition would strengthen cross-study comparability and help disentangle haemodilution from transfusion-related immunomodulation.

3. 90-Day Mortality: Missing Effect Estimate

The 90-day mortality difference (11.7% vs. 0%) is the most striking finding, yet no effect size is reported because the Cox model did not converge. A Firth-corrected logistic regression estimate or exact confidence interval should improve the manuscript.

Minor Concerns

Table 1 contains a likely typographical error (“27.4.0 L”). A time-period sensitivity analysis would help assess whether secular changes in practice over the 15-year study window confound the association.

**********

-->6. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public.

Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy.-->

Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #2: No

**********

[NOTE: If reviewer comments were submitted as an attachment file, they will be attached to this email and accessible via the submission site. Please log into your account, locate the manuscript record, and check for the action link "View Attachments". If this link does not appear, there are no attachment files.]

To ensure your figures meet our technical requirements, please review our figure guidelines: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/figures

You may also use PLOS’s free figure tool, NAAS, to help you prepare publication quality figures: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/figures#loc-tools-for-figure-preparation.

NAAS will assess whether your figures meet our technical requirements by comparing each figure against our figure specifications.

PLoS One. 2026 May 21;21(5):e0349795. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0349795.r002

Author response to Decision Letter 1


6 Apr 2026

RESPONSE TO REVIEWERS

Professor Pavel Strnad

Academic Editor

PLOS One

PONE-D-26-07916

Title: Effects of massive transfusion (10-20 litres) versus ultramassive transfusion (≥20 litres) on mortality in adult liver transplant recipients: A propensity-score matched study

Dear Pavel Strnad

My coauthors and I would like to thank you and the expert reviewers for taking the time to provide a very constructive and thoughtful review of our manuscript.

As requested, we have included the following items with our resubmission:

1. A point-by-point response letter (to follow) that addresses each issue raised by the Academic Editor and the Reviewers. I have uploaded this letter as a separate file labelled “Response to Reviewers.”

2. A marked-up copy of the manuscript that highlights changes made to the original version. This has been uploaded as a separate file labelled “Revised Manuscript with Tracked Changes highlighted in red.”

3. An unmarked version of our revised paper without tracked changes. This has also been uploaded as a separate file labelled “Manuscript.”

Editorial / General Points

1. PLOS ONE style and file naming

Authors’ response: We thank the Editors for this important reminder and have carefully reviewed the manuscript and all associated files to ensure compliance with PLOS ONE’s formatting and file-naming requirements. All manuscript, figure, and supplementary files have now been renamed and formatted in accordance with the journal’s guidelines.

2. Anonymisation of supporting data

Authors’ response: We are grateful for the Editors’ vigilance regarding patient confidentiality and data governance. Following your advice, we have reviewed the original dataset in detail, removed all directly identifying fields, and ensured that no potentially identifying information remains (including hidden spreadsheet columns). The re-uploaded data file now contains only fully anonymised variables, consistent with the consent framework approved by our Human Research Ethics Committee and applicable local regulations.

3. Citation of suggested references

Authors’ response: We thank the Editors and reviewers for their thoughtful reference suggestions. We have systematically reviewed the recommended publications and have cited those that are directly relevant to our study question, methods, or interpretation, while avoiding citation purely for completeness. Where suggested articles were not clearly applicable to orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) or to ultramassive transfusion specifically, we have acknowledged the broader literature without adding references that might distract from the OLT focus of the manuscript.

Reviewer 1

We sincerely thank Reviewer 1 for the careful reading of our manuscript and for their insightful comments, which have substantially improved the clarity and interpretability of our work. We agree that each of the points raised is important and have addressed them in detail as follows.

4. Causality, intraoperative severity, and residual confounding

Reviewer’s comment: “The main limitation of the study is that the analysis does not establish a causal relationship between transfusion volume and mortality. Patients receiving ultramassive transfusion are very likely those experiencing the most severe intraoperative complications (e.g., major bleeding, technically difficult surgery, graft issues), which are themselves strong predictors of mortality. Therefore, ultramassive transfusion is likely a marker of intraoperative severity rather than an independent cause of worse outcomes. Although propensity score matching was performed, the model appears to include mainly preoperative variables and donor characteristics, while important intraoperative severity markers such as blood loss, operative duration, vasopressor requirement, or intraoperative complications were not included. This creates a high risk of residual confounding and confounding by indication. This issue should ideally be addressed through additional clarification or analyses if possible, or at least more clearly acknowledged and discussed as a key limitation of the study.”

Authors’ response: We thank the Reviewer for raising this concern. We acknowledge that residual confounding and confounding by indication are inherent limitations of this retrospective propensity-matched study. Moreover, we agree that intraoperative variables, such as the volume of blood loss, surgical complexity and intraoperative complications, are likely important predictors of mortality. Unfortunately, this data was not captured in the transplant registry and was subsequently unavailable for our statistical analysis.

In response to this concern, we attempted to minimise confounding and to test the robustness of the primary findings. The propensity score matching strategy included 11 clinically relevant variables and achieved adequate covariate balance, with standardised mean differences (SMD) below 0.1 after matching (Figure 2; Supplementary Table 2). This balance post-matching demonstrates that the exposure groups in the primary analysis were well-matched on available characteristics. Moreover, this study was conducted at a single quaternary centre specialising in liver transplantation, ensuring internal consistency in clinical practice, which may mitigate residual confounding.

The consistency of the mortality signal across the unmatched and sensitivity analyses suggests that the UMT-mortality association may not be attributable to confounding alone. The association was observed in the unmatched cohort (n = 306), the primary matched cohort (n = 188), and the expanded cohort comparing UMT against all non-UMT (< 20 L intraoperative fluids) recipients (n = 376). Additionally, the mortality signal remained in the time-period sensitivity analysis to detect whether secular changes in clinical practice at our institution contributed to the UMT-mortality association.

Thus, this pattern of consistency suggests that the primary mortality findings are unlikely to be attributable to confounding alone, even in the absence of critical intraoperative variables.

To address this important concern, we have made the following changes:

I. Strengthened limitations section: We have expanded the Strengths and Limitations subsection to explicitly state that “critically, the propensity score model was constructed using preoperative variables only,” and that key intraoperative factors influencing both transfusion volume and outcomes were unavailable. We now explicitly acknowledge confounding by indication, emphasizing that UMT “may reflect intraoperative severity rather than independently cause worse outcomes,” and that the observed association “should be interpreted with caution.”

II. Clarified interpretation in Discussion and Conclusion: We now consistently describe UMT as identifying a “high‐risk” clinical phenotype and carefully avoid implying that UMT is itself causal. The Discussion explicitly notes that patients receiving UMT are plausibly those experiencing greater intraoperative complexity or catastrophic blood loss, and that this distinction cannot be resolved by our study design

III. Survivor bias and unmeasured confounding: We added a paragraph explicitly describing the possibility of survivor bias (patients must survive long enough to receive extreme volumes) and the broader issue of unmeasured confounding, underscoring that propensity score matching cannot adjust for variables that are not measured.

We believe these revisions make the limitations around causality and residual confounding much more transparent and aligned with the reviewer’s concerns.

5. Exposure definition: total intraoperative fluid volume vs blood product units

Reviewer’s comment: “A second concern relates to the definition of the exposure variable. Massive and ultramassive transfusion are defined using total intraoperative fluid volume, including crystalloids and colloids. This differs from most definitions in the literature, which typically rely on the number of blood product units. Including non-blood fluids may reflect differences in anaesthetic fluid management strategies rather than transfusion burden alone, which complicates interpretation of the results. The rationale for this definition should be explained more clearly. If this approach cannot be further justified or explored analytically, its implications for interpretation should be explicitly acknowledged and discussed as a limitation.”

Authors’ response: We thank the Reviewer for raising this concern. This concern was also raised by Reviewer 2. Accordingly, our pRBC-centred sensitivity analysis addresses both Reviewer comments.

We have addressed this in three ways:

I. Expanded justification in Methods: In the “Patient population and definitions” section, we now provide a clearer, a priori rationale for the composite fluid definition. Specifically, we emphasise that:

• The definition was chosen to capture the “total resuscitation burden”, as all fluid components contribute to haemodilution, acid–base disturbance, endothelial injury, and overall physiological stress in OLT.

• Our approach is consistent with prior work at our institution, which also used a total-fluid definition in an OLT UMT cohort.

• Although not universal, these thresholds (10–20 L vs ≥20 L) represent clinically meaningful checkpoints for resource utilisation, and are aligned with local practice triggers for escalation of perioperative vigilance.

II. Explicit acknowledgment as a limitation: In the Strengths and Limitations section, we now explicitly state that our composite fluid definition “limits direct comparison with studies using pRBC-only thresholds” and may partly reflect differences in anaesthetic fluid management strategies rather than transfusion burden alone. We further highlight that “our findings may reflect differences in fluid management strategy rather than transfusion burden, introducing uncertainty when interpreting the significance of our findings.

III. Additional analytic exploration (pRBC-centred sensitivity analysis): To address the reviewer’s suggestion for more analytic exploration, we have added a dedicated pRBC-centred sensitivity analysis (Sensitivity Analysis II) using pRBC units to define MT and UMT (10–14 vs ≥15 units), with full details in the Methods, Results, and Supplementary Tables 9–11. Although this analysis was underpowered at conventional UMT thresholds, it provides a complementary perspective and supports the notion that total fluid volume may be a more complete index of resuscitative burden in our setting.

We believe these additions provide a clearer justification of our exposure definition and appropriately frame it as both a strength (comprehensive resuscitation measure) and a limitation (comparability with pRBC-based definitions).

6. Spelling, typographical errors, and internal referencing issues

Reviewer’s comment: “There are several minor issues that should be addressed during revision. Some spelling and typographical errors are present in the manuscript and should be corrected. In addition, several internal references appear to be incorrect or unresolved (e.g., “Error! Reference source not found.”), suggesting formatting problems in the document. These should be carefully checked and corrected before publication.”

Authors’ response: We appreciate the reviewer drawing attention to these issues, which have now been addressed systematically. Specifically:

• We performed a comprehensive proofread of the manuscript to correct spelling, grammar, and typographical errors, including those in tables and figure legends.

• All internal referencing errors (e.g. “Error! Reference source not found.”) arising from word-processor cross-references have been identified and corrected so that all tables, figures, and supplementary materials are now referenced correctly and consistently.

• We also standardised terminology (e.g., “ultramassive transfusion,” “massive transfusion,” and abbreviations) throughout the text for readability and consistency.

Reviewer 2

We are very grateful to Reviewer 2 for their thoughtful and constructive review, as well as the positive assessment of the study’s contribution and statistical approach. We agree that each of the major and minor points raised is important and have revised the manuscript accordingly.

7. Overall assessment of robustness and contribution.

Reviewer’s comment: “The PSM adjusts for preoperative variables only. Critical intraoperative factors (surgical complexity, operative duration, and bleeding aetiology) remain unmeasured. UMT may therefore reflect intraoperative factors rather than independently drive mortality, a distinction the design cannot resolve. The attenuation of the EAD association after matching illustrates this mechanism directly.

Authors’ response: We thank the reviewer for these encouraging comments regarding the robustness of the mortality signal, the quality of the propensity score matching, and the transparent handling of secondary outcomes. This comment overlaps with Reviewer 1. We agree that the study design cannot definitively answer whether UMT independently drives mortality or whether it may be a proxy for intraoperative severity. A more detailed response to confounding factors is provided in response to Reviewer 1 Question 1 (see above) and applies here as well.

We have ensured that the manuscript clearly reports:

I. The excellent covariate balance achieved by the 1:1 optimal matching strategy, supported by Love plots and detailed standardised mean differences in Supplementary Tables.

II. The consistency of the mortality association across unmatched analyses and multiple sensitivity analyses, including the expanded comparator (UMT vs all non-UMT recipients) and the pRBC-centred analysis.

III. The “underpowered nature” of certain secondary and exploratory endpoints (e.g., graft loss, rare thrombotic events), with cautious interpretation explicitly noted in both Results and Discussion.

We appreciate the reviewer’s recognition of these aspects and have retained this transparent framing in the revised manuscript.

8. Confounding vs independent risk and causal language

Reviewer’s comment: “Causal language in the abstract and conclusion (“independently associated,” “linked to”) should be replaced throughout with “associated with,” and the conclusion should explicitly acknowledge that causal inference is not supported.”

Authors’ response: We agree entirely with the reviewer that our design does not support causal inference and that the language should clearly reflect an “associational”, rather than causal, interpretation.

Accordingly, we have made the following changes:

I. Abstract:

• Replaced any phrases implying causality (e.g. “independently associated,” “linked to”) with the more neutral “associated with.”

• Added an explicit statement in the Abstract’s Conclusion that “our study does not permit causal inference and the observed association may reflect intraoperative severity rather than a direct effect of transfusion volume.”

II. Main text and Conclusion:

• Throughout the Introduction, Discussion, and Conclusion, we systematically replaced causal-sounding terminology with “associated with,” “identifies a high-risk phenotype,” or “correlated with,” as appropriate.

• The Conclusion now explicitly states that “due to the limitations of our study, our findings cannot establish a causal relationship; UMT may reflect intraoperative severity rather than independently drive mortality.”

III. Limitations:

• The Strengths and Limitations section now prominently highlights that intraoperative factors were not included in the propensity model and that residual confounding and confounding by indication are likely.

We believe these revisions fully address the reviewer’s concern and provide a transparent, appropriately cautious interpretation of our findings.

9. Composite fluid definition and additional pRBC-centred sensitivity analysis

Reviewer’s comment: “Combining crystalloids, colloids, and blood products into a single threshold conflates physiologically distinct entities. A sensitivity analysis using a pRBC-centred definition would str

Attachment

Submitted filename: Response_To Reviewers_4April26.pdf

pone.0349795.s020.pdf (176KB, pdf)

Decision Letter 1

Pavel Strnad

6 May 2026

<p>Effects of massive transfusion (10-20 litres) versus ultramassive transfusion (≥20 litres) on mortality in adult liver transplant recipients: A propensity-score matched study

PONE-D-26-07916R1

Dear Dr. Weinberg,

We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements.

Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication.

An invoice will be generated when your article is formally accepted. Please note, if your institution has a publishing partnership with PLOS and your article meets the relevant criteria, all or part of your publication costs will be covered. Please make sure your user information is up-to-date by logging into Editorial Manager at Editorial Manager® and clicking the ‘Update My Information' link at the top of the page. For questions related to billing, please contact billing support.

If your institution or institutions have a press office, please notify them about your upcoming paper to help maximize its impact. If they’ll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team as soon as possible -- no later than 48 hours after receiving the formal acceptance. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org.

Kind regards,

Pavel Strnad

Academic Editor

PLOS One

Additional Editor Comments (optional): Congratulations to the nice manuscript!

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

-->Comments to the Author

1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation.-->

Reviewer #1: All comments have been addressed

**********

-->2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented. -->

Reviewer #1: Yes

**********

-->3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? -->

Reviewer #1: Yes

**********

-->4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.-->

Reviewer #1: Yes

**********

-->5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.-->

Reviewer #1: Yes

**********

-->6. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)-->

Reviewer #1: Thank you for the opportunity to review the revised version of this manuscript.

The authors have addressed my previous comments in a thoughtful and comprehensive manner. In particular, the limitations regarding causality, residual confounding, and the absence of intraoperative variables are now clearly acknowledged and appropriately discussed. The interpretation of the findings has been revised accordingly, with a more cautious and balanced framing that avoids causal language.

I also appreciate the authors’ efforts to strengthen the methodological transparency, including the addition of a pRBC-based sensitivity analysis and further clarification of the exposure definition. These additions improve both the interpretability and the contextualisation of the results within the existing literature.

While the inherent limitations of the retrospective design remain, these are now explicitly recognised, and the conclusions are appropriately aligned with the available data.

Overall, I believe the manuscript has been substantially improved and now meets an acceptable standard for publication.

**********

-->7. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public.

Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy.-->

Reviewer #1: No

**********

Acceptance letter

Pavel Strnad

PONE-D-26-07916R1

PLOS One

Dear Dr. Weinberg,

I'm pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been deemed suitable for publication in PLOS One. Congratulations! Your manuscript is now being handed over to our production team.

At this stage, our production department will prepare your paper for publication. This includes ensuring the following:

* All references, tables, and figures are properly cited

* All relevant supporting information is included in the manuscript submission,

* There are no issues that prevent the paper from being properly typeset

You will receive further instructions from the production team, including instructions on how to review your proof when it is ready. Please keep in mind that we are working through a large volume of accepted articles, so please give us a few days to review your paper and let you know the next and final steps.

Lastly, if your institution or institutions have a press office, please let them know about your upcoming paper now to help maximize its impact. If they'll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team within the next 48 hours. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org.

You will receive an invoice from PLOS for your publication fee after your manuscript has reached the completed accept phase. If you receive an email requesting payment before acceptance or for any other service, this may be a phishing scheme. Learn how to identify phishing emails and protect your accounts at https://explore.plos.org/phishing.

If we can help with anything else, please email us at customercare@plos.org.

Thank you for submitting your work to PLOS ONE and supporting open access.

Kind regards,

PLOS ONE Editorial Office Staff

on behalf of

Dr. Pavel Strnad

Academic Editor

PLOS One

Associated Data

    This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

    Supplementary Materials

    S1 Fig. Unmatched analysis: Love plots of covariate balance across multiple propensity score matching strategies.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s001.pdf (295.8KB, pdf)
    S2 Fig. Primary analysis: Long-term survival comparisons in the propensity-matched cohort.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s002.pdf (182KB, pdf)
    S3 Fig. Unmatched analysis: Early, intermediate and long-term survival comparison in the unmatched cohort.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s003.pdf (433.8KB, pdf)
    S4 Fig. Sensitivity analysis I (expanded comparator): Matched survival curves.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s004.pdf (432.3KB, pdf)
    S5 Fig. Sensitivity analysis II (pRBC definition): Matched survival curves.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s005.pdf (420.3KB, pdf)
    S1 Table. Unmatched analysis: Summary of missing data by variable.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s006.pdf (109.8KB, pdf)
    S2 Table. Primary analysis: Evaluation of the covariate balance across multiple propensity score matching strategies.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s007.pdf (81KB, pdf)
    S3 Table. Primary analysis: Complete baseline recipient, donor and intraoperative characteristics before and after matching.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s008.pdf (177.8KB, pdf)
    S4 Table. Unmatched analysis: Perioperative and long-term outcomes.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s009.pdf (106KB, pdf)
    S5 Table. Unmatched analysis: Conditional Cox proportional hazards regression for patient and graft survival.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s010.pdf (75.2KB, pdf)
    S6 Table. Sensitivity analysis I (expanded comparator): Evaluation of covariate balance.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s011.pdf (73.2KB, pdf)
    S7 Table. Sensitivity analysis I (expanded comparator): Perioperative and long-term outcomes.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s012.pdf (107.6KB, pdf)
    S8 Table. Sensitivity analysis I (expanded comparator): Conditional Cox proportional hazards regression for patient and graft survival in the matched sensitivity cohort.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s013.pdf (76.7KB, pdf)
    S9 Table. Sensitivity analysis II (pRBC exposure): Covariate balance assessment.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s014.pdf (73.2KB, pdf)
    S10 Table. Sensitivity analysis II (pRBC exposure): Perioperative and long-term outcomes in the matched sensitivity cohort.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s015.pdf (118.4KB, pdf)
    S11 Table. Sensitivity analysis II (pRBC exposure): Conditional Cox proportional hazards regression for patient and graft survival in the matched sensitivity cohort.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s016.pdf (77.8KB, pdf)
    S12 Table. Sensitivity analysis III (time period): Conditional Cox proportional hazards regression for patient survival in the matched cohort.

    (PDF)

    pone.0349795.s017.pdf (90.5KB, pdf)
    S1 File. De-identified Database.

    (XLSX)

    pone.0349795.s018.xlsx (736.7KB, xlsx)
    Attachment

    Submitted filename: Response_To Reviewers_4April26.pdf

    pone.0349795.s020.pdf (176KB, pdf)

    Data Availability Statement

    All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.


    Articles from PLOS One are provided here courtesy of PLOS

    RESOURCES