Abstract
Introduction
Climate change necessitates inclusive disaster preparedness strategies. Gender and sexual minorities in Zimbabwe face marginalisation, with limited access to resources and exclusion from climate change adaptation efforts.
Methods and analysis
This mixed-methods study protocol will be conducted in Bulawayo Province, Zimbabwe, involving 165 participants identified through the Sexual Rights Centre. Quantitative data will be collected using semistructured questionnaires, and qualitative data will be gathered through focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Qualitative data will enhance the quantitative findings to ensure that robust conclusions are drawn. The study will commence in April 2026 and is expected to be completed by December 2026.
Ethics and dissemination
Ethical approval was granted by the National University of Science and Technology Institutional Review Board (NUST/IRB/2024/062). Written informed consent will be obtained from all the participants. The findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations and policy briefs shared with the Zimbabwean Ministry of Local Government and Public Works and community feedback sessions with the Sexual Rights Centre.
Keywords: Public Health, Accident Prevention, Zimbabwe
WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS TOPIC
Research on the inclusion of gender and sexual minority (GSM) populations in disaster preparedness plans is limited, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence indicates that GSM individuals face discrimination, stigma and barriers to resource access during climate-induced disasters.
WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS
This protocol describes the first mixed-methods study to explore the inclusion of GSM in disaster preparedness plans in Bulawayo Province, Zimbabwe. It will identify the specific climate risks faced by GSM populations, assess their level of preparedness and determine barriers to and strategies for inclusion.
HOW THIS STUDY MIGHT AFFECT RESEARCH, PRACTICE OR POLICY
Findings may inform the development of inclusive disaster preparedness policies in Zimbabwe and similar contexts, guide organisations in implementing evidence-based interventions and serve as a reference for future research on GSM inclusion in climate change adaptation.
Plain English language summary
In Zimbabwe, laws and policies regarding gender and sexual minorities (GSMs) are complex and often contradictory in nature. Although same-sex marriage is criminalised, the constitution prohibits discrimination based on sex, gender and sexual orientation. This legal landscape contributes to the exclusion of GSM populations from disaster preparedness plans in both rural and urban areas, despite Zimbabwe being a signatory to international treaties that protect GSM rights in Zimbabwe. This study will focus on Bulawayo Province and seek to explore how GSM individuals are included in climate change disaster preparedness plans. This research recognises the fundamental rights and freedoms of all citizens, including the GSM population, and argues for their inclusion in these critical plans. The research will involve employees from Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) managing resilience programmes for the GSM population in Bulawayo, as well as individuals who identify themselves as GSM. The proposed study aims to assess the current state of GSM inclusion in disaster preparedness and identify strategies for improvement using data gathered from both service providers and the GSM community.
Background
Climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, with its impacts disproportionately affecting marginalised communities worldwide.1 Among these vulnerable groups, GSMs face unique challenges that amplify their susceptibility to climate-induced disasters.2 To effectively meet their specific needs and guarantee a fair distribution of resources during climate-induced disasters, it is crucial to incorporate GSM populations into disaster preparedness initiatives.3
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has consistently highlighted the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events owing to climate change.4 These events, including floods, droughts and heat waves, pose significant threats to human life and livelihoods. However, its impact was not uniformly distributed across populations. Marginalised groups, including GSM individuals, often bear a disproportionate burden due to pre-existing social, economic and legal disparities.5
Recent research has begun to shed light on the specific vulnerabilities of the GSM population during disasters. For instance, Gorman-Murray et al found that GSM individuals often face discrimination when accessing emergency shelters and relief services.6 Similarly, Gaillard et al highlighted how the destruction of safe spaces during disasters can disproportionately affect GSM communities, compromising their mental health and social-support networks.7
The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, particularly Goal 13 on Climate Action and Goal 10 on Reduced Inequalities, underscore the importance of inclusive approaches to climate change mitigation and disaster preparedness.8 However, a significant gap remains in integrating GSM perspectives into these efforts, especially in regions highly vulnerable to climate change, such as Sub-Saharan Africa.9
Zimbabwe, particularly the Bulawayo Province, presents a compelling case study for examining these issues. The country faces significant climate-related risks, with the World Bank (2021) projecting an increased frequency of droughts and floods in the coming decades.10 Simultaneously, Zimbabwe’s legal and social landscapes present challenges for GSM individuals, potentially exacerbating their vulnerability to disaster situations.11
Despite the growing recognition of the need for inclusive disaster preparedness, there is a dearth of research specifically examining the integration of GSM populations into such plans, particularly in the African context. This study aims to address this gap by exploring the current state of GSM inclusion in disaster preparedness plans in Bulawayo Province, identifying barriers to inclusion, and proposing strategies for more equitable and effective disaster response. Table 1 provides an overview of the study objectives.
Table 1. Objectives.
| Specific objective | Research question | Data source and tools | Data analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. To describe the sociodemographic characteristics of GSM populations in Bulawayo. (QUANTITATIVE) |
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| 2. To determine the climate change risks that are faced by GSM populations in urban Bulawayo. (QUANTITATIVE) |
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| 3. To assess the level of preparedness towards disasters associated with climate change. (QUANTITATIVE and QUALITATIVE) |
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| 4. To determine the possible interventions that could improve the inclusion and resilience of GSM populations towards climate change-associated disasters. (QUALITATIVE) |
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FGD, focus group discussion; GSM, gender and sexual minority.
Methods/design
The study is planned to commence in April 2026, with data collection anticipated to be completed by July 2026. The entire study, including data analysis and manuscript preparation, is expected to be finalised by December 2026.
Research approach
To explore the inclusion of GSM populations in disaster preparedness plans associated with climate change in Bulawayo Province, Zimbabwe, this study employs a mixed-methods approach. This methodology integrates qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis. The research process will begin with a comprehensive literature review to establish a theoretical foundation and identify knowledge gaps in the literature. Quantitative data will be gathered through structured questionnaires distributed to various stakeholders, whereas qualitative data will be collected via key informant interviews and FGDs with the GSM community, disaster management authorities and climate change experts. The integration of statistical analysis of quantitative data with thematic analysis of qualitative data will provide a holistic understanding of the current state of GSM inclusion in disaster preparedness plans and identify barriers and potential strategies for improvement. This mixed-method approach enhanced the robustness of the findings through triangulation, ensuring a comprehensive exploration of the research objectives. The results will be synthesised into a cohesive document, contributing valuable insights to both academic discourse and practical policy formulation in the realm of inclusive disaster preparedness.
Step 1: literature review
Review title
Inclusion of GSM populations in disaster preparedness plans associated with climate change. A scoping review of literature.
Background of the review
Disaster preparedness plans are critical for mitigating the impact of climate change-induced disasters on the population. However, these plans present complex challenges for GSM populations. While they are provided with a framework for protecting lives and preventing disease spread, GSM individuals often face significant barriers to accessing resources and services during disasters.12 This disparity is exacerbated by the stigmatisation and discrimination by both government and non-government aid providers.
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the unique vulnerabilities of the GSM population during disasters. Malmquist et al noted that restrictions on movement and social distancing measures disproportionately affected GSM individuals, particularly those engaged in commercial sex work.13 This underscores the need for inclusive disaster preparedness strategies that address the specific needs of GSM communities.
Mann et al indicate that GSM individuals often experience heightened vulnerability during disasters due to pre-existing social and economic marginalisation.14 This vulnerability is compounded by the lack of recognition in mainstream disaster preparedness plans, which typically adopt a heteronormative approach.15
In the context of climate change, the frequency and intensity of disasters are projected to increase.4 This amplifies the urgency of developing inclusive disaster preparedness strategies. Jean et al emphasised that effective disaster risk reduction must consider the intersectionality of vulnerabilities, including those related to gender and sexuality.16
The integration of GSM perspectives in disaster preparedness is not only a matter of social justice but also of practical efficacy. Inclusion can enhance the overall resilience of communities by ensuring that all members are adequately prepared and supported.6 However, challenges remain in implementing inclusive disaster preparedness plans, particularly in regions with strong social and legal discrimination against GSM individuals. This review aims to examine the current state of GSM inclusion in disaster preparedness plans, identify barriers to inclusion and explore strategies for developing more equitable and effective disaster-response mechanisms in the context of climate change.
Main objective
This scoping review aims to determine the relationship between disaster preparedness plans and the inclusion of GSM populations in association with climate change effects.
Specific research objectives
To describe the sociodemographic characteristics of GSM residing in Bulawayo.
To determine the climate risks faced by GSM in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.
To assess the level of climate change disaster preparedness among gender and minority populations in Bulawayo.
To determine possible interventions that could improve the inclusion and resilience of gender and minority groups towards climate change-associated disasters.
Methodology
Inclusion and exclusion criteria
This review will include literature written in English that addresses the inclusion of GSM populations in relation to climate change disasters and their involvement in disaster preparedness plans published until December 2025. For literature to be considered, it must contain information on GSM populations’ experiences, challenges and participation in disaster preparedness, specifically in the context of climate change-related disasters. Inclusion benchmarks will be set using the subject area on the Google Scholar platform with only scholarly articles, peer-reviewed journals and reputable reports. The number of citations of an article was also considered, excluding articles without citations. A Rayyan account will be created for the article screening. The literature will be obtained from multiple databases, including ProQuest, PUBMED, EBSCO, Dimensions and ScienceDirect. The study will exclude all non-English sources, studies focusing on disaster preparedness and climate change-related disasters for the general population without specific attention to GSM populations and literature addressing the relationship between disaster preparedness plans and climate change-associated disasters for the entire population of Bulawayo Province without a specific focus on the GSM population.
Search strategy
The following search strategy will be employed to identify relevant literature: a comprehensive search will be conducted across multiple electronic databases, including PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Science Direct and Google Scholar. The search string will use various combinations of keywords and subject headings: (“Gender and sexual minorities*” OR “GSM*” OR “LGBTQ+*”) AND (“climate change*” OR “global warming*”) AND (“disaster preparedness*” OR “disaster response*” OR “emergency management*”) AND (“inclusion*” OR “participation*” OR “vulnerability*”) AND (“Bulawayo*” OR “Zimbabwe*” OR “Sub-Saharan Africa*”) AND (“literature review*” OR “scoping review*” OR “systematic review*” OR “meta-analysis*”) AND (LANGUAGE: English) AND (PUBLICATION DATE: (2013–2025)) AND (STUDY TYPE: quantitative OR qualitative OR mixed-methods).
Methods of review
The titles and abstracts will be independently reviewed by at least two reviewers to identify articles and reports relevant to this systematic review. Disagreements will be resolved through dialogue between reviewers. At least two reviewers will review the full texts of these articles, and reports that meet the inclusion criteria will be included.
Data extraction and synthesis
Downloaded literature will be imported into Rayyan software, a literature review software that includes and excludes literature to ensure that only relevant sources are included. This increases the chances of accessing all relevant sources on the subject matter. The software has the option of automatically including or excluding sources after review. The findings will then be analysed and thematised for a comprehensive presentation. Data collection and analysis will be conducted between May 2026 and July 2026.
Quality assessment
The quality of each study will be evaluated by two independent reviewers using standard quality assessment criteria for evaluating primary research papers adapted from the Joanna Briggs Institute checklists for cross-sectional, qualitative and mixed-methods studies.
Study setting
The study will be conducted in Bulawayo Province, Zimbabwe, focusing on the Sexual Rights Centre (SRC), which serves GSM individuals in the province. Bulawayo is the second-largest city in Zimbabwe, situated in the southwest. It lies in the watershed between the Zambezi and Limpopo drainage basins on a savannah plain. The city experiences high temperatures, reaching 30°C in October, and is susceptible to severe annual rainfall variations and droughts. As of 2022, Bulawayo had a population of 653 337 residents, with a gender distribution of 46% men and 54% women.17 The selection of SRC allows for the representation of diverse GSM experiences across different socioeconomic contexts. This diverse sampling frame will enable the collection of rich and nuanced data, which will be analysed and interpreted in conjunction with quantitative findings to provide a comprehensive understanding of GSM inclusion in disaster preparedness plans. Figure 1 shows a map of the study region.
Figure 1. Study area.
Quantitative survey
The goal of quantitative research is to identify patterns, averages, predictions, causal linkages and generalisations by gathering and analysing numerical data. A quantitative cross-sectional survey will be conducted on the GSM population in Bulawayo. This approach will be used to explore the relationships between different variables related to inclusion in disaster plans associated with climate change, as well as accessibility, knowledge and barriers to resource utilisation among this population.
Study population
The study population will consist of individuals who identify as GSM in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe. The inclusion criteria for participating in the study were GSM aged 18 years and above. Participants under 18 years of age will be excluded from the study because they need parental consent and may not provide accurate responses due to fear or insecurity.
Sampling procedure and sample size
A sample size of 185 participants was calculated to be representative of the population of 600 GSM individuals registered with the SRC, with a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error, assuming a 50% response rate. To account for potential non-response or incomplete answers (estimated at 10%), the target sample size was inflated to 203. The sampling frame was stratified by self-identified sexual orientation and gender identity, with the following strata: gay men (n=37), lesbian women (n=37), bisexual persons (n=37), transgender persons (n=37), queer persons (n=37) and other identities (n=18).
Data collection tools
In this study, a semistructured questionnaire was developed and designed using Kobo Collect to gather quantitative data from the GSM population in Bulawayo Province. Trained research assistants will administer the questionnaire face-to-face in a private setting at the SRC. Data collection will be conducted in May 2026. The questionnaire contained 20 questions (open- and closed-ended questions) and was expected to take approximately 15–20 min to complete. It will be divided into four sections: demographic variables, climate change risks faced by the GSM population, level of access to disaster preparedness plans and strategies for including the GSM population in disaster preparedness plans associated with climate change. The questionnaire will consist of English questions, and the data will be collected in the field with automatic entry of the responses into the Kobo Collect software. The data collection process will take 3 weeks to complete. The full questionnaire is provided in online supplemental file 1.
Validity and reliability
The degree to which a notion is precisely measured in a quantitative study is called validity. Content validity will be considered to ensure that the data collection tools are designed to cover all variables needed in the study. The quality of the data collection tools will depend on continuous improvement and standardisation through the opinions of the supervisor to assess the degree of accuracy of the questionnaire. The research proposal will also be reviewed by the National University of Science and Technology Institutional Review Board (NUST IRB) to obtain approval for carrying out the study. The input sort from the board was used to adjust the methodology and the data collection tools. The KOBO Collect tool includes built-in validation rules (eg, required fields, range checks and skip patterns) to minimise incomplete submissions and missing data, thereby improving data completeness.
Measurement consistency occurs when an instrument is used repeatedly with the same participants under the same conditions, and supervision is maintained using the same yardstick. To improve the quality of the data collected, the data collection tools will be pretested on similar participants in different areas.
Data analysis and presentation
Data from the KOBO Collect software will be downloaded as an Excel file and imported into STATA V.13 SE for analysis. Descriptive statistics (frequencies, percentages, means and SD) will be calculated for all variables. Inferential statistics will include χ2 tests to examine associations between demographic characteristics and inclusion in disaster preparedness plans, independent t-tests or ANOVA to compare continuous outcomes across groups and logistic regression to identify predictors of perceived inclusion (eg, age, sexual orientation and education level). Statistical significance will be set at p<0.05. For open-ended responses, content analysis will be used to identify recurring themes. In the data analysis and presentation of results, pie charts, histograms and tables will be presented using Excel spreadsheets. Research and study regulations will be adhered to through the safekeeping of questionnaires and other documents for 5 years.
Qualitative survey
The goal of the qualitative research method is to better comprehend thoughts, opinions and experiences through the collection and analysis of non-numerical data such as text, audio or video. A qualitative study will be conducted to explore the experiences and perspectives of the GSM population in relation to disaster preparedness plans and climate change. This approach will involve collecting rich and detailed data from key informants and SRC staff. The aim is to enhance understanding of the gap between climate change impacts and the ability of GSM people to access support from organisations during shocks. This systematic approach will gather information and insights from relevant individuals with expertise or experience in the field.
Study population
The qualitative study will target individuals who self-identify as gay, lesbian, transgender or queer and representatives from the SRC. This research will be conducted using a sample of participants from Bulawayo Province, which was selected for its high concentration of the target demographics. The inclusion criteria will consider the following: participants aged 18 years and above who frequent the SRC in Bulawayo, individuals willing to disclose their sexual orientation and those who are available and willing to participate in the study. Individuals who do not meet these criteria, such as those unwilling to disclose their sexual orientation or those unavailable for the study, will be excluded.
Sampling procedure and sample size
The sampling frame will consist of GSM individuals registered with the SRC, officials from the SRC with experience working with GSM populations and key informants with knowledge of GSM populations in Bulawayo Province. The sampling procedure will involve identifying potential participants through the SRC and key informants, followed by purposive sampling to select participants based on their relevance to the research questions and expertise in the area of study.
Convenience sampling will be used to recruit participants who are easily accessible and willing to participate. The overall theoretical framework guiding the qualitative component is interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA), which seeks to understand the lived experiences of GSM individuals regarding disaster preparedness and climate change. The sample size for this study will be determined based on the following criteria: purposive sampling will recruit 8–10 participants for each FGD (two FGDs planned, total 16–20 participants), and key informant interviews will be conducted to gather more in-depth information from experts in the field. Between 10 and 30 key informant interviews will be conducted (targeting SRC officials, disaster management officers and climate change experts). The interview and FGD guides are provided in online supplemental file 1.
Data collection tools
Data will be collected through a combination of FGDs and interviews with GSM populations, human rights workers and GSM population activists, including officials of organisations. The interviews and group discussions will focus on the inclusion of GSM populations in disaster preparedness plans and the issues of discrimination and stigma, as well as exploring resilience strategies to obtain individual opinions on the subject. The FGDs and interview guides will be structured according to the study objectives. Both will be recorded using a tape recorder after the participants provide their consent, and pseudonyms will be used to ensure the privacy and confidentiality of the participants.
Qualitative data analysis
The data from the FGDs and in-depth interviews will be recorded and transcribed verbatim and then imported into MAXQDA V.20 Pro for analysis. Two researchers will independently code the transcripts. The initial coding will use a combination of deductive codes derived from key concepts in the literature and inductive codes emerging from the data. An iterative process of open coding identified key themes, followed by axial coding to explore the relationships between them. Ultimately, the main themes and subthemes identified from the data will be presented to answer the study’s objectives. The thematic analysis will be guided by the principles of IPA.
Validity and reliability
The research proposal was reviewed by the NUST IRB to obtain approval (NUST/IRB/2024/062). Both the methodology and data collection instruments were adjusted according to the input received.
A pretest using Kobo Collect will be performed to prevent the drawbacks associated with the tool in the actual data collection. This also minimises the risk of incomplete submissions and missing data.
Ethics and dissemination
Ethical approval was granted by the NUST IRB (NUST/IRB/2024/062). An Information and Consent sheet was developed and will be shared with participants who will provide written consent before participating in the research. None of the participants will be coerced into participating. The findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations and policy briefs shared with the Zimbabwean Ministry of Local Government and Public Works and community feedback sessions with the SRC.
Ensuring trustworthiness
The term ‘trustworthiness’ or ‘rigour’ refers to the level of confidence in the data, interpretation and processes used to ensure the study’s quality. Trustworthiness refers to the believability of the study’s results or everything the researcher has done to design, conduct and report the research to make it believable. Studies using qualitative data typically use smaller, non-random samples and are not based on standardised instruments. In qualitative research, reliability is a comparative phrase used to gauge the characteristics of a study. Four principles—credibility, transferability, trustworthiness and confirmability—can be used to increase the reliability of qualitative research. These strategies were constructed in a manner similar to the quantitative criteria for internal and external validity, reliability and neutrality of the study. This study aims to ensure its validity, transferability, confirmability, dependability and reliability.
Credibility
Credibility demonstrates a qualitative researcher’s level of confidence in the veracity of the study’s conclusions or how definite a conclusion can be drawn based on the research findings. Triangulation will be employed to guarantee the validity of qualitative data. This study will include statistical reports and interviews as data sources, which reflect triangulation. Triangulation provides a more comprehensive picture of the phenomenon being studied and prevents excessive reliance on a single source or method of data collection.
Transferability
Transferability refers to the degree to which a study’s findings can be effectively implemented in comparable environments. A thorough description of the study environment, participant selection and results is necessary to assess whether the findings can be applied. This study provides readers with sufficient information regarding data collection, analysis methods and research design to ensure that they are well informed. They would then be able to evaluate the findings impartially and apply them to similar contexts in the future.
Confirmability
Confirmability describes the researcher’s level of objectivity in gathering and reporting findings. The ability of others to confirm the results is another definition of confirmability. The investigator ensured that the findings were grounded in evidence and the investigator’s preferences. Interviews were conducted to ensure confirmability.
Dependability
Dependability is the degree to which the replication of the study yields comparable results. However, because qualitative investigations focus on the diversity of experiences, disparities are expected. This study ensured that the research was reliable, that nothing was hidden, that the procedures were explained in detail so that they could be seen step-by-step and that the constraints were highlighted.
Informed consent
The researcher will seek written consent from the participants to conduct this survey.
Data handling
The collected data will be used only for academic purposes. All data will be stored on password-protected computers that are accessible only to the research team. Anonymised data may be shared in a public repository on publication.
Risks to participants
No foreseen risks.
Benefits to participants
N/A.
Confidentiality
This information will be confidential and will be available only to the researchers and supervisors. The collected data will be used only for academic purposes.
Patient and public involvement
The research was designed and conducted by an academic researcher as part of a Master’s degree project with logistical and time constraints. However, the research questions were informed by existing public health literature on climate change and marginalised populations, as well as regional priorities concerning GSM inclusion in disaster preparedness identified through the SRC. Results will be disseminated to participating GSM community members via a summary report shared at the SRC and to the Bulawayo Provincial Civil Protection Unit through a policy brief.
Dissemination plan
The findings of this study will be disseminated through multiple channels to reach academic, policy and community audiences in the future. A peer-reviewed journal article will be submitted for publication. The results will be presented at national and international conferences on public health, climate change and disaster risk reduction. A policy brief will be developed and shared with the Zimbabwean Ministry of Local Government and Public Works, Civil Protection Unit and SRC. Community feedback sessions will be held with GSM participants at the SRC to share the findings and validate the interpretations.
Positionality statement
The research team acknowledges that our backgrounds as cisgender, heterosexual public health researchers (except for community collaborators) may have influenced data collection and interpretation. We engaged the SRC as a community partner from the outset to ensure cultural sensitivity. Reflexive memos will be maintained throughout the data collection and analysis to document how our positionality shaped the research process. Interviewers will receive training in LGBTQ+ cultural competency and use neutral, respectful language. Participants will be invited to review the summaries of the findings to ensure that their voices are accurately represented.
Supplementary material
Footnotes
Funding: The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.
Provenance and peer review: Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
Patient consent for publication: Not applicable.
Map disclaimer: The inclusion of any map (including the depiction of any boundaries therein), or of any geographic or locational reference, does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of BMJ concerning the legal status of any country, territory, jurisdiction or area or of its authorities. Any such expression remains solely that of the relevant source and is not endorsed by BMJ. Maps are provided without any warranty of any kind, either express or implied.
Patient and public involvement: Patients and/or the public were not involved in the design, conduct, reporting or dissemination plans of this research.
Ethics approval: An application for ethical approval was submitted to the Institutional Review Board of the National University of Science and Technology in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe. This committee granted ethical clearance (Ethics Clearance Number: NUST/IRB/2024/062). Permission to conduct the survey was sought from the participating companies. An Information and Consent sheet was developed and will be shared with participants who will provide written consent before participating in the research. No one will be coerced into participating.
Data availability statement
Data are available in a public, open access repository. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information.
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Associated Data
This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.
Supplementary Materials
Data Availability Statement
Data are available in a public, open access repository. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information.