Key Points
Question
Is childhood sexual abuse associated with adult loneliness in the US population?
Findings
In this cross-sectional study of 53 444 US adults, childhood sexual abuse was associated with substantially higher adjusted probabilities of adult loneliness in a graded dose-response pattern; the probability of always feeling lonely increased from 2.1% among unexposed adults to 5.3% after repeated exposure. This pattern was consistent across sex, racial and ethnic groups, and age groups.
Meaning
These findings suggest that early-life sexual trauma may be associated with long-term social isolation and support the integration of trauma-informed strategies into public health prevention and population health initiatives.
Abstract
Importance
Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) is a severe early-life trauma with well-established psychiatric sequelae. Prior studies have been limited by nonrepresentative samples, broad adversity measures, and a lack of dose-response characterization or formal effect modification testing in contemporary US populations.
Objectives
To examine the association between prior CSA and adult loneliness and whether this association varies by sex, race and ethnicity, and age group.
Design, Setting, and Participants
This cross-sectional study used data on 53 444 adults from the 2023-2024 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a nationally representative survey of US adults. CSA was ascertained through retrospective self-report.
Exposure
Self-reported history of CSA (never, once, or more than once).
Main Outcomes and Measures
The main outcome was ordinal loneliness frequency (never, rarely, sometimes, usually, or always) estimated via survey-weighted multinomial logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, marital status, educational level, employment, language, general health status, and tobacco use. Effect modification by sex, race and ethnicity, and age was formally tested. Analyses incorporated complex survey weights and inverse probability weighting to reduce confounding by measured covariates.
Results
The analytic sample comprised 53 444 US adults (mean [SD] age, 56.8 [17.7] years; 55.1% female). CSA was associated with a clear dose-response gradient. The probability of never feeling lonely decreased from 40.9% (95% CI, 40.1%-41.8%) among unexposed adults to 23.1% (95% CI, 20.0%-26.3%) after repeated exposure. The probability of always feeling lonely increased from 2.1% (95% CI, 1.8%-2.3%) to 5.3% (95% CI, 3.9%-6.6%)—a 2.5-fold increase (adjusted OR, 4.48; 95% CI, 3.05-5.91; P < .001). In a binary analysis, any CSA was associated with an absolute risk difference of 18.1 percentage points (95% CI, 15.5-20.7 percentage points; P < .001), number needed to harm of 6, and population attributable fraction of 7.5% (95% CI, 6.4%-8.5%), suggesting approximately 6.2 million US adult loneliness cases may be associated with CSA. The dose-response pattern was consistent across sex, racial and ethnic groups, and age groups.
Conclusions and Relevance
In this cross-sectional study of 53 444 US adults, CSA was associated with higher adjusted probabilities of adult loneliness in a graded dose-response pattern. This finding underscores the importance of trauma-informed strategies to address long-term psychosocial vulnerability among adults who were exposed to CSA.
This cross-sectional study uses data from the 2023-2024 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to examine the association between prior childhood sexual abuse and adult loneliness in the US population and whether this association varies by sex, race and ethnicity, and age group.
Introduction
Loneliness has emerged as a major public health concern, increasingly recognized as a determinant of mental illness, cardiometabolic disease, cognitive decline, and premature mortality.1,2,3,4 Recent national advisories have characterized social isolation and loneliness as epidemics with population-level consequences comparable with established behavioral risk factors.1,5 Despite a growing awareness of loneliness in adulthood, far less is known about the early-life determinants that shape its long-term trajectory.
Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) represents one of the most severe forms of early-life trauma.6,7,8 Extensive literature has documented the association of CSA with depression, posttraumatic stress disorder, substance use, suicidality, and chronic disease.7,8,9 However, prior studies examining CSA and loneliness have been limited by small or clinically selected samples, cross-national designs not generalizable to the contemporary US population, or broad operationalizations of childhood adversity that do not isolate the specific contribution of sexual abuse.10,11,12 Furthermore, existing meta-analytic syntheses, while valuable, aggregate heterogeneous samples and exposure definitions and cannot address whether a dose-response gradient exists across CSA frequency categories or whether associations vary systematically across demographic subgroups in the US adult population.11,13 The present study addresses these gaps using a dose-graded exposure measure, inverse probability weighting (IPW), and formal tests of effect modification in a contemporary US sample.
Theoretical models provide strong rationale for such an association. Early sexual trauma may disrupt attachment formation, alter stress response systems, impair interpersonal trust, and increase social vigilance, all of which may predispose individuals to enduring social withdrawal.2,14,15,16 Over time, the cumulative disadvantage in relationships, education, and employment may further entrench social isolation.17,18,19
In this study, we used nationally representative data from the 2023-2024 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)20 to examine the association between prior CSA and graded frequency of adult loneliness. Using IPW to reduce confounding by measured covariates and formally testing effect modification by key demographic characteristics, we asked: among a nationally representative sample of US adults, is a history of CSA associated with a higher frequency of adult loneliness, and does this association vary by sex, race and ethnicity, or age group? By situating loneliness within a life-course trauma framework, this study seeks to inform trauma-informed public health strategies and broaden understanding of the long-term psychosocial associations of CSA.
Methods
Study Design and Data Source
This cross-sectional study analyzed data from the 2023-2024 BRFSS, a nationally representative telephone survey of US noninstitutionalized adults conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) across all 50 states and Washington, DC, using a complex multistage probability sampling design.20,21 The CSA item was drawn from the optional Adverse Childhood Experience (ACE) module; the loneliness item was drawn from the Social Determinants of Health module. Detailed survey methodology is described in eMethods 4 and 5 in Supplement 1. The BRFSS dataset is publicly available and completely deidentified. Accordingly, this study was exempt from institutional review board approval under federal regulations (45 CFR 46.101[b][4]). Informed consent is obtained by the CDC from all BRFSS respondents as part of survey administration; no additional consent was required for this secondary analysis. This study adhered to the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) reporting guideline.22
Study Population
The 2023-2024 BRFSS sample comprised 871 440 respondents across all 50 states and Washington, DC. Respondents were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older and were administered both the ACE module (the source of the CSA item) and the Social Determinants of Health module (the source of the loneliness item). Of 92 097 eligible respondents, 37 347 were excluded for missing data on loneliness, and an additional 1306 were excluded for missing covariate data. The final analytic sample comprised 53 444 adults (eFigure 1 in Supplement 1).
Exposure
The primary exposure was a composite measure of self-reported CSA derived from 3 items in the BRFSS ACE module (ACETOUCH, ACETTHEM, and ACEHVSEX), each coded as never (0), once (1), or more than once (2). A maximum-severity composite was computed by taking the highest value across the 3 items for each respondent, yielding a trichotomous variable: never, once, or more than once. Full-item wording and composite derivation are described in eMethods 5 in Supplement 1.
Outcome
The primary outcome was self-reported frequency of loneliness, assessed with the question, “How often do you feel lonely?” Response options included never, rarely, sometimes, usually, and always. This item was derived from the BRFSS Social Determinants of Health optional module and was administered to all adult respondents completing that module. Respondents who answered “don’t know/not sure” or “refused” were excluded. Loneliness was modeled as an ordinal categorical variable to capture graded differences in frequency and severity.
Covariates
Covariates were selected a priori based on theoretical relevance and a causal framework informed by a directed acyclic graph (eFigure 2 in Supplement 1).23 Covariates were classified into 2 groups according to their hypothesized causal role (eMethods 2 in Supplement 1). The first group comprised variables considered to be true confounders: factors that precede both CSA exposure and adult loneliness and that therefore must be adjusted to obtain an unconfounded total association estimate. These included age group (18-34, 35-54, and ≥55 years), sex, race and ethnicity, and primary language. Race and ethnicity were self-reported from options defined by the BRFSS survey instrument and recoded into 4 categories: Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic White, and other or unknown (including American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, multiracial, and respondents with unreported race and ethnicity). These characteristics precede CSA exposure and are unlikely to be caused by CSA.
The second group comprised potential confounder mediators—variables associated with both CSA and loneliness that may also be partially caused by CSA: marital status, educational attainment, employment status, smoking status, and general health. Their inclusion maximizes confounder control but may partially attenuate indirect pathway effects. The primary analytic target is therefore an adjusted association between CSA and adult loneliness conditional on measured covariates, rather than a total causal effect. A sensitivity analysis using a restricted confounder-only set is reported in eTable 4 in Supplement 1.
Statistical Analysis
Survey-weighted multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted estimated probabilities of each loneliness category as a function of CSA exposure. The proportional odds assumption was formally tested and strongly violated (likelihood ratio χ248 = 6280.27; P < .001), justifying multinomial over ordinal logistic regression (eMethods 3 in Supplement 1). To reduce confounding by measured covariates, stabilized IPW weights were constructed from multinomial propensity scores and multiplied by the BRFSS analytic weight to produce composite analytic weights (eMethods 1 in Supplement 1). Weights were winsorized at the first and 99th percentiles (affecting 926 observations [2.0%]); post-IPW covariate balance was adequate (mean standardized mean difference [SMD] = 0.07). Effect modification by sex, race and ethnicity, and age was tested via product interaction terms; marginal estimated probabilities and 95% CIs were estimated using postestimation contrasts. Full IPW diagnostics and balance tables are reported in eTables 1, 2, and 3 in Supplement 1. All analyses were conducted in Stata, version 17 (StataCorp LLC); significance was defined as 2-sided P < .05.
Three prespecified sensitivity analyses were conducted: alternative IPW winsorization thresholds, a restricted confounder-only adjustment set, and a binary logistic model estimating absolute risk metrics. Full details are described in eMethods 6 in Supplement 1, and results are reported in eTables 4, 5, 6, and 7 in Supplement 1.
Results
Study Population and Baseline Characteristics
Of 53 444 US adults (mean [SD] age, 56.8 [17.7] years; 29 457 female [55.1%] and 23 987 male [44.9%]; 7106 Hispanic [13.3%], 6326 non-Hispanic Black [11.8%], 34 579 non-Hispanic White [64.7%], and 5433 other or unknown race or ethnicity [10.2%]) included in the final analytic sample, 46 643 (87.3%) reported no history of CSA, 2637 (4.9%) reported a single exposure, and 4164 (7.8%) reported repeated exposure (Table 1). CSA-exposed adults were younger on average than unexposed adults (mean [SD] age, 55.2 [17.9] years for single exposure and 52.9 [16.3] years for repeated exposure vs 57.2 [17.8] years for no exposure; P < .001). Female sex was disproportionately represented among CSA-exposed respondents compared with unexposed respondents (single exposure, 67.5% female [1779 of 2637] vs 32.5% male [858 of 2637]; repeated exposure, 77.3% female [3219 of 4164] vs 22.7% male [945 of 4164]; unexposed, 52.4% female [24 459 of 46 643] vs 47.6% male [22 184 of 46 643]; P < .001). Current smoking was more prevalent among CSA-exposed adults (single exposure, 13.4% [354 of 2637]; repeated exposure, 18.2% [756 of 4164]; unexposed, 9.3% [4355 of 46 643]; P < .001), as was fair or poor general health (single exposure, 23.7% [624 of 2637]; repeated exposure, 30.6% [1275 of 4164]; unexposed, 18.9% [8820 of 46 643]; P < .001).
Table 1. Baseline Characteristics of US Adults by History of Childhood Sexual Abuse, BRFSS 2023-2024a.
| Characteristic | Total (N = 53 444) | Never CSA (n = 46 643 [87.3%]) | Single episode CSA (n = 2637 [4.9%]) | Multiple CSA (n = 4164 [7.8%]) | P valueb | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic characteristics | ||||||
| Age, mean (SD), y | 56.8 (17.7) | 57.2 (17.8) | 55.2 (17.9) | 52.9 (16.3) | <.001 | |
| Age group, No. (%) | ||||||
| 18-34 y | 8086 (15.1) | 6908 (14.8) | 462 (17.5) | 716 (17.2) | <.001 | |
| 35-54 y | 13 368 (25.0) | 11 340 (24.3) | 682 (25.9) | 1346 (32.3) | ||
| ≥55 y | 31 990 (59.9) | 28 395 (60.9) | 1493 (56.6) | 2102 (50.5) | ||
| Sex, No. (%) | ||||||
| Male | 23 987 (44.9) | 22 184 (47.6) | 858 (32.5) | 945 (22.7) | <.001 | |
| Female | 29 457 (55.1) | 24 459 (52.4) | 1779 (67.5) | 3219 (77.3) | ||
| Race and ethnicity, No. (%) | ||||||
| Hispanic | 7106 (13.3) | 6202 (13.3) | 367 (13.9) | 537 (12.9) | <.001 | |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 6326 (11.8) | 5417 (11.6) | 353 (13.4) | 556 (13.4) | ||
| Non-Hispanic White | 34 579 (64.7) | 30 369 (65.1) | 1635 (62.0) | 2575 (61.8) | ||
| Other or unknownc | 5433 (10.2) | 4655 (10.0) | 282 (10.7) | 496 (11.9) | ||
| Socioeconomic factors | ||||||
| Marital status, No. (%) | ||||||
| Married or partnered | 29 279 (54.8) | 25 934 (55.6) | 1332 (50.5) | 2013 (48.3) | <.001 | |
| Previously married | 14 307 (26.8) | 12 221 (26.2) | 756 (28.7) | 1330 (31.9) | ||
| Never married | 9858 (18.4) | 8488 (18.2) | 549 (20.8) | 821 (19.7) | ||
| Educational level, No. (%) | ||||||
| <High school | 3107 (5.8) | 2701 (5.8) | 139 (5.3) | 267 (6.4) | <.001 | |
| High school graduate | 12 975 (24.3) | 11 316 (24.3) | 602 (22.8) | 1057 (25.4) | ||
| Some college | 13 877 (26.0) | 11 791 (25.3) | 750 (28.4) | 1336 (32.1) | ||
| College graduate | 23 485 (43.9) | 20 835 (44.7) | 1146 (43.5) | 1504 (36.1) | ||
| Employment status, No. (%) | ||||||
| Employed | 25 769 (48.2) | 22 403 (48.0) | 1303 (49.4) | 2063 (49.5) | .08 | |
| Not employed | 27 675 (51.8) | 24 240 (52.0) | 1334 (50.6) | 2101 (50.5) | ||
| Primary language, No. (%) | ||||||
| English | 48 613 (91.0) | 42 297 (90.7) | 2413 (91.5) | 3903 (93.7) | <.001 | |
| Spanish | 4831 (9.0) | 4346 (9.3) | 224 (8.5) | 261 (6.3) | ||
| Health-related factors | ||||||
| Current smoking, No. (%) | ||||||
| Nonsmoker | 47 979 (89.8) | 42 288 (90.7) | 2283 (86.6) | 3408 (81.8) | <.001 | |
| Current smoker | 5465 (10.2) | 4355 (9.3) | 354 (13.4) | 756 (18.2) | ||
| General health, No. (%) | ||||||
| Good, very good, or excellent | 42 725 (79.9) | 37 823 (81.1) | 2013 (76.3) | 2889 (69.4) | <.001 | |
| Fair or poor | 10 719 (20.1) | 8820 (18.9) | 624 (23.7) | 1275 (30.6) | ||
| Primary outcome | ||||||
| Adult loneliness, No. (%) | ||||||
| Never | 21 723 (40.7) | 20 115 (43.1) | 695 (26.4) | 913 (21.9) | <.001 | |
| Rarely | 15 320 (28.7) | 13 378 (28.7) | 813 (30.8) | 1129 (27.1) | ||
| Sometimes | 12 710 (23.8) | 10 452 (22.4) | 823 (31.2) | 1435 (34.5) | ||
| Usually | 2139 (4.0) | 1582 (3.4) | 188 (7.1) | 369 (8.9) | ||
| Always | 1552 (2.9) | 1116 (2.4) | 118 (4.5) | 318 (7.6) | ||
Abbreviations: BRFSS, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; CSA, childhood sexual abuse.
Percentages are weighted to represent the US adult population.
Statistical significance was assessed using design-based F tests for continuous variables and Rao-Scott χ2 tests for categorical variables, accounting for the complex survey design.
Other or unknown included American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, multiracial, and respondents with unreported race and ethnicity.
CSA and Loneliness Severity: Adjusted Multinomial Logistic Regression
In survey-weighted multinomial logistic regression incorporating IPW, CSA exposure was associated with significantly higher adjusted odds of loneliness across all frequency categories, with a consistent dose-response gradient (n = 53 444; Wald χ268 = 2468.39; P < .001) (Table 2). Compared with unexposed adults, those reporting a single episode of CSA had adjusted odds ratios of 1.97 (95% CI, 1.60-2.33) for rarely lonely, 2.25 (95% CI, 1.83-2.67) for sometimes lonely, 3.97 (95% CI, 2.75-5.18) for usually lonely, and 3.23 (95% CI, 2.16-4.29) for always lonely (all P < .001). Among adults reporting repeated CSA, corresponding adjusted odds ratios were 1.60 (95% CI, 1.30-1.90) for rarely lonely, 2.63 (95% CI, 2.11-3.15) for sometimes lonely, 4.82 (95% CI, 3.37-6.28) for usually lonely, and 4.48 (95% CI, 3.05-5.91) for always lonely (all P < .001). The steeper gradient observed for usually lonely and always lonely, particularly with repeated exposure, suggests that higher-frequency loneliness was disproportionately associated with greater abuse frequency.
Table 2. Association Between CSA Exposure and Loneliness Severity: Adjusted Multinomial Logistic Regression, 2023-2024 BRFSS (N = 53 444)a.
| CSA exposure | Loneliness category, AOR (95% CI)b | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Never lonely | Rarely lonely | Sometimes lonely | Usually lonely | Always lonely | |
| Once | 1 [Reference] | 1.97 (1.60-2.33)c | 2.25 (1.83-2.67)c | 3.97 (2.75-5.18)c | 3.23 (2.16-4.29)c |
| More than once | 1 [Reference] | 1.60 (1.30-1.90)c | 2.63 (2.11-3.15)c | 4.82 (3.37-6.28)c | 4.48 (3.05-5.91)c |
Abbreviations: AOR, adjusted odds ratio; BRFSS, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; CSA, childhood sexual abuse.
Wald χ268 = 2468.39, P < .001; pseudo R2 = 0.070. N = 53 444 (2023-2024 BRFSS analytic sample).
All estimates are AORs from survey-weighted multinomial logistic regression with robust (sandwich) standard errors. More information about the regression model appears in the Statistical Analysis section.
P < .001.
Adjusted Estimated Probabilities by CSA Exposure Category
On the absolute probability scale, the adjusted probability of never feeling lonely was 40.9% (95% CI, 40.1%-41.8%) among unexposed adults, decreasing to 23.6% (95% CI, 20.8%-26.5%) among those with single-episode exposure and 23.1% (95% CI, 20.0%-26.3%) among those with repeated exposure (Table 3). The probability of always feeling lonely was 2.1% (95% CI, 1.8%-2.3%) among unexposed adults, increasing to 3.9% (95% CI, 2.8%-5.0%) for single-episode exposure and 5.3% (95% CI, 3.9%-6.6%) for repeated exposure. Similarly, the probability of usually feeling lonely increased from 3.3% (95% CI, 3.0%-3.6%) among unexposed adults to 7.5% (95% CI, 5.7%-9.3%) for single-episode exposure and 8.9% (95% CI, 7.1%-10.7%) for repeated exposure. CSA exposure was associated with a systematic redistribution away from the never lonely category toward higher-frequency loneliness states, with the largest absolute shifts concentrated in the sometimes lonely category, which increased from 24.4% (95% CI, 23.6%-25.1%) among unexposed adults to 36.2% (95% CI, 33.2%-39.3%) among those with repeated exposure, and in the rarely lonely category, which increased from 29.3% (95% CI, 28.5%-30.2%) among unexposed adults to 33.4% (95% CI, 30.0%-36.7%) among those with single-episode exposure before decreasing to 26.5% (95% CI, 24.1%-29.0%) among those with repeated exposure.
Table 3. Adjusted Estimated Probabilities of Adult Loneliness by CSA Exposure, 2023-2024 BRFSS (N = 53 444)a.
| CSA exposure | Adjusted estimated probability, % (95% CI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Never lonely | Rarely lonely | Sometimes lonely | Usually lonely | Always lonely | ||
| Never | 40.9 (40.1-41.8) | 29.3 (28.5-30.2) | 24.4 (23.6-25.1) | 3.3 (3.0-3.6) | 2.1 (1.8-2.3) | |
| Once | 23.6 (20.8-26.5) | 33.4 (30.0-36.7) | 31.7 (28.5-34.8) | 7.5 (5.7-9.3) | 3.9 (2.8-5.0) | |
| Multiple | 23.1 (20.0-26.3) | 26.5 (24.1-29.0) | 36.2 (33.2-39.3) | 8.9 (7.1-10.7) | 5.3 (3.9-6.6) | |
Abbreviations: BRFSS, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; CSA, childhood sexual abuse.
Values are adjusted estimated probabilities from survey-weighted multinomial logistic regression with inverse probability weights. More information about the regression model appears in the Statistical Analysis section. Reference outcome: never lonely. All rows sum to 100%.
Binary Operationalization: Absolute Risk Difference, Number Needed to Harm, and Population Attributable Fraction
In a complementary analysis operationalizing both CSA and loneliness as binary variables (Table 4), the adjusted estimated probability of loneliness was 47.8% (95% CI, 45.3%-50.3%) among CSA-exposed adults compared with 29.7% (95% CI, 28.9%-30.5%) among unexposed adults, yielding an absolute risk difference of 18.1 percentage points (95% CI, 15.5-20.7 percentage points; P < .001). This corresponds to a number needed to harm of 6, indicating that for every 6 adults with a CSA history, 1 additional case of loneliness is associated with that exposure beyond the background rate. Based on a weighted CSA prevalence of 13.2% and an overall loneliness probability of 32.1%, the population attributable fraction was 7.5% (95% CI, 6.4%-8.5%; P < .001), suggesting that approximately 6.2 million cases of loneliness among US adults may be associated with CSA exposure. These metrics complement the relative odds estimates from the primary model.
Table 4. Estimated Probability of Loneliness, ARD, NNH, and PAF by CSA Exposure, 2023-2024 BRFSS (N = 53 444)a.
| Metric | Estimated probability or estimate | SE (95% CI) | P value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated probability of loneliness by CSA exposure | |||
| No CSA (reference) | 0.297 | 0.004 (0.289-0.305) | <.001 |
| Any CSA | 0.478 | 0.013 (0.453-0.503) | <.001 |
| Estimate of ARD, NNH, and PAF (any CSA vs no CSA) | |||
| ARD (RD) | 0.181 | 0.013 (0.155-0.207) | <.001 |
| NNH (NNH = 1/RD) | 6 | NA | NA |
| PAF, % | 7.5 | NA (6.4-8.5) | <.001 |
Abbreviations: ARD, absolute risk difference; BRFSS, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; CSA, childhood sexual abuse; NA, not applicable; NNH, number needed to harm; PAF, population attributable fraction.
Estimated probabilities and ARD estimated from logistic regression with an inverse probability composite weight using Stata margins command. Loneliness binary: lonely (sometimes, usually, or always) vs not lonely (never or rarely). CSA binary: any CSA vs no CSA.
Sex-Stratified Analyses
Sex-stratified analyses incorporating a CSA × sex interaction term demonstrated a consistent dose-response association between CSA and loneliness across both males and females (P = .03 for interaction) (Table 5). Among adults without CSA, the adjusted probability of never feeling lonely was 43.9% (95% CI, 42.6%-45.1%) for males and 38.3% (95% CI, 37.1%-39.4%) for females. With repeated CSA exposure, these probabilities decreased to 27.9% (95% CI, 21.3%-34.5%) among males and 19.2% (95% CI, 17.0%-21.5%) among females. The probability of always feeling lonely with repeated exposure was 6.6% (95% CI, 3.9%-9.4%) among males and 4.3% (95% CI, 3.3%-5.3%) among females. Although the CSA × sex interaction was statistically significant, it was modest in magnitude; several male-stratum estimates, particularly among those reporting single-episode exposure, had wide 95% CIs. The primary finding is the consistent dose-response direction across both sexes; cross-sex magnitude comparisons should be interpreted with caution.
Table 5. Adjusted Estimated Probabilities of Adult Loneliness by CSA Exposure and Sex, 2023-2024 BRFSS (N = 53 444)a.
| CSA exposure by sex | Adjusted estimated probability, % (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Never lonely | Usually lonely | Always lonely | |
| Never | |||
| Male | 43.9 (42.6-45.1) | 3.3 (2.9-3.8) | 2.7 (2.3-3.1) |
| Female | 38.3 (37.1-39.4) | 3.2 (2.8-3.6) | 1.6 (1.3-1.9) |
| Once | |||
| Male | 24.5 (19.9-29.0) | 8.8 (5.6-11.9) | 4.4 (2.5-6.2) |
| Female | 23.0 (19.4-26.5) | 6.3 (4.3-8.3) | 3.6 (2.3-4.9) |
| Multiple | |||
| Male | 27.9 (21.3-34.5) | 10.9 (7.2-14.5) | 6.6 (3.9-9.4) |
| Female | 19.2 (17.0-21.5) | 7.2 (5.8-8.6) | 4.3 (3.3-5.3) |
Abbreviations: BRFSS, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; CSA, childhood sexual abuse.
Values are adjusted estimated probabilities from survey-weighted multinomial logistic regression incorporating CSA × sex interaction terms with inverse probability weights composite weight. P = .03 for CSA × sex interaction. More information about the regression model appears in the Statistical Analysis section.
Sensitivity Analyses and Supplementary Results
The study population derivation, including stepwise exclusions from the total 2023-2024 BRFSS sample to the final analytic sample of 53 444 adults, is depicted in eFigure 1 in Supplement 1. The directed acyclic graph informing covariate classification is presented in eFigure 2 in Supplement 1. Full IPW distributions before and after winsorization, covariate balance diagnostics, and formal assumption tests are reported in eTables 1, 2, and 3 in Supplement 1; after IPW, the mean (SD) SMD was reduced from 0.28 (0.15) to 0.07 (0.04), with 20 of 22 covariates achieving adequate balance (SMD <0.10). A sensitivity analysis using a restricted confounder-only adjustment set excluding variables that may function partly as mediators (marital status, educational attainment, employment, general health, and tobacco use) yielded uniformly larger adjusted odds ratios across all loneliness categories (eTable 4 in Supplement 1), consistent with the expectation that the full model provides a conservative estimate of the total association.
Race- and ethnicity-stratified and age-stratified adjusted estimated probabilities and absolute risk differences are reported in eTables 8, 9, and 10 in Supplement 1. Across all demographic subgroups, CSA exposure was associated with a consistent dose-response redistribution toward higher-frequency loneliness categories; however, several stratum-specific estimates, particularly among CSA-exposed adults and younger adults from racial and ethnic minority groups, had wide 95% CIs, and cross-subgroup comparisons should be interpreted with caution.
Discussion
In this nationally representative analysis of US adults, CSA was associated with a clear, graded increase in the likelihood of adult loneliness. Across all models, exposure to CSA, particularly repeated exposure, was associated with a systematic redistribution away from reporting never feeling lonely toward higher-frequency loneliness categories. Individuals reporting repeated CSA had adjusted odds of usually feeling lonely that were 4.82 times higher or always feeling lonely that were 4.48 times higher than unexposed adults, with a clear dose-response pattern across all loneliness frequency categories.
Overall, our findings extend prior literature demonstrating the long-term psychiatric and psychosocial consequences of early-life sexual trauma.7,8,24,25,26 Although previous studies have linked CSA with depression, posttraumatic stress disorder, and substance use disorders, fewer nationally representative analyses have examined loneliness as a distinct and clinically meaningful outcome.7,27,28 Prior work by Gibson and Hartshorne29 established an association between CSA and adult loneliness in community samples nearly 3 decades ago, and recent meta-analytic evidence from Curtis et al30 and de Heer et al11 has confirmed associations between broader adverse childhood experiences and loneliness across the life course. The present study extends this foundation by isolating CSA as a distinct exposure, applying a dose-graded trichotomous measure, using IPW in a nationally representative US sample, and formally testing effect modification by sex, race and ethnicity, and age—questions prior meta-analyses were not powered to address in the contemporary US population.
Loneliness is increasingly recognized as a potent risk factor for depression, cardiometabolic disease, cognitive decline, and premature mortality.1,4,11,30 By demonstrating a dose-response association in a contemporary US population using IPW and complex survey adjustment, this study strengthens evidence that CSA may exert durable associations with adult loneliness across the life course.2,7,17,31 Nevertheless, because both exposure and outcome were measured within the same cross-sectional survey wave and CSA was ascertained through retrospective self-report, the findings should be interpreted as reflecting a strong adjusted association consistent with a life-course causal hypothesis rather than as direct evidence of a prospectively established causal effect.
Sex-stratified analyses revealed that the association was present in both sexes, although repeated CSA was associated with particularly elevated probabilities of loneliness among men, consistent with literature on stigma and reduced help-seeking among male survivors.31,32,33,34,35 Race- and ethnicity-stratified models showed consistent gradients across groups, with Hispanic adults reporting repeated exposure exhibiting the highest probability of frequent loneliness, potentially reflecting intersections of trauma with structural inequities and differential access to mental health resources (eTable 8 in Supplement 1).36,37,38 Age-stratified analyses showed the strongest relative gradients among younger adults, underscoring the salience of early trauma during periods of social role formation (eTable 9 in Supplement 1).39,40,41,42 Mechanistically, CSA may disrupt attachment security, impair interpersonal trust, and alter stress response systems, with cumulative socioeconomic disadvantage further entrenching social isolation over time.2,14,43,44,45,46,47,48
Policy Implications
From a policy perspective, these findings have important population-level implications. Loneliness has been identified as a major public health concern, with emerging recognition comparable with that of other behavioral risk factors.49,50 The population attributable fraction of 7.5% (95% CI, 6.4%-8.5%) suggests that approximately 6.2 million cases of loneliness among US adults may be associated with CSA exposure, underscoring the substantial preventable burden that trauma-informed interventions could address at the population level. Interventions that prioritize trauma-informed screening, early prevention, and sustained psychosocial support for individuals who were exposed to CSA may reduce downstream mental health morbidity and social isolation.51,52,53
Limitations
This study has several limitations. First, the cross-sectional design precludes establishing temporality54,55 beyond the inherent life-course ordering of CSA before adulthood, and unmeasured confounding56 by factors not captured in the BRFSS, such as parental psychopathology or neighborhood disadvantage, cannot be excluded. Second, complete-case analysis may introduce selection bias if respondents with more severe trauma histories were more likely to decline sensitive questions, potentially attenuating observed associations.57 Third, retrospective self-report of CSA is subject to differential recall bias: individuals with depression or loneliness may be more likely to disclose prior abuse, while stigma and shame may cause underreporting among others; disclosure patterns also vary by sex, race and ethnicity, and socioeconomic position, which may partly explain observed subgroup heterogeneity.58,59,60,61 Fourth, several covariates, including marital status, educational level, and employment, may lie partly on the causal pathway between CSA and loneliness; sensitivity analyses using a restricted adjustment set yielded directionally consistent but larger estimates (eTable 4 in Supplement 1). Fifth, loneliness was assessed with a single-item measure rather than a validated multidimensional scale, which may not fully capture its cognitive and relational dimensions. Sixth, this study was not prospectively registered; covariate selection was guided a priori by a causal directed acyclic graph (eFigure 2 in Supplement 1), but post hoc analytic flexibility cannot be fully excluded.
Conclusion
In this cross-sectional study of 53 444 US adults, CSA was associated with substantially higher probabilities of adult loneliness in a graded dose-response pattern. These findings suggest that early-life sexual trauma may have enduring associations with social outcomes that extend into adulthood and underscore the importance of trauma-informed prevention and intervention strategies to address long-term psychosocial vulnerability.
eMethods 1. Inverse Probability Weighting Methodology and Diagnostics
eMethods 2. Covariate Classification: Confounders vs Potential Mediators
eMethods 3. Rationale for Multinomial Over Ordinal Logistic Regression
eMethods 4. BRFSS Survey Design and Data Source
eMethods 5. Exposure Variable Construction: CSA Composite Measure
eMethods 6. Sensitivity Analyses: Full Specifications
eTable 1. IPW Summary Statistics: Stabilized Weight Distributions Before and After Winsorization at 1st and 99th Percentiles, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 2. Covariate Balance: Standardized Mean Differences (SMD) and Variance Ratios (VR) Before and After IPW Adjustment, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 3. IPW Diagnostic Test Results: Positivity, Overlap, Covariate Balance, and Model Specification
eTable 4. Sensitivity Analysis: Restricted Confounder-Only Model vs Full Adjusted Model — Adjusted Odds Ratios for CSA–Loneliness Association, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 5. Likelihood Ratio Test of the Proportional Odds Assumption, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 6. Selected Covariate Coefficients Across Loneliness Thresholds From Unconstrained Generalized Ordered Logit Model, Demonstrating Proportional Odds Violation, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 7. Sensitivity Analysis: Survey-Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression of Loneliness Severity on Childhood Sexual Abuse Exposure and Covariates, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 8. Adjusted Predicted Probabilities of Adult Loneliness by Childhood Sexual Abuse Exposure and Race/Ethnicity, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 9. Adjusted Predicted Probabilities of Adult Loneliness by Childhood Sexual Abuse Exposure and Age Group, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 10. Absolute Risk Differences in Predicted Probability of Loneliness by Demographic Subgroup Within CSA Exposure Levels, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eFigure 1.Study Population Derivation Flow Diagram — Association of Childhood Sexual Abuse With Adult Loneliness in the United States (BRFSS 2023–2024)
eFigure 2. Directed Acyclic Graph Illustrating the Assumed Causal Structure Underlying the Association Between Childhood Sexual Abuse and Adult Loneliness, 2023–2024 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (N = 53,444)
Data Sharing Statement
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Associated Data
This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.
Supplementary Materials
eMethods 1. Inverse Probability Weighting Methodology and Diagnostics
eMethods 2. Covariate Classification: Confounders vs Potential Mediators
eMethods 3. Rationale for Multinomial Over Ordinal Logistic Regression
eMethods 4. BRFSS Survey Design and Data Source
eMethods 5. Exposure Variable Construction: CSA Composite Measure
eMethods 6. Sensitivity Analyses: Full Specifications
eTable 1. IPW Summary Statistics: Stabilized Weight Distributions Before and After Winsorization at 1st and 99th Percentiles, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 2. Covariate Balance: Standardized Mean Differences (SMD) and Variance Ratios (VR) Before and After IPW Adjustment, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 3. IPW Diagnostic Test Results: Positivity, Overlap, Covariate Balance, and Model Specification
eTable 4. Sensitivity Analysis: Restricted Confounder-Only Model vs Full Adjusted Model — Adjusted Odds Ratios for CSA–Loneliness Association, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 5. Likelihood Ratio Test of the Proportional Odds Assumption, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 6. Selected Covariate Coefficients Across Loneliness Thresholds From Unconstrained Generalized Ordered Logit Model, Demonstrating Proportional Odds Violation, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 7. Sensitivity Analysis: Survey-Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression of Loneliness Severity on Childhood Sexual Abuse Exposure and Covariates, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 8. Adjusted Predicted Probabilities of Adult Loneliness by Childhood Sexual Abuse Exposure and Race/Ethnicity, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 9. Adjusted Predicted Probabilities of Adult Loneliness by Childhood Sexual Abuse Exposure and Age Group, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eTable 10. Absolute Risk Differences in Predicted Probability of Loneliness by Demographic Subgroup Within CSA Exposure Levels, 2023–2024 BRFSS (N = 53,444)
eFigure 1.Study Population Derivation Flow Diagram — Association of Childhood Sexual Abuse With Adult Loneliness in the United States (BRFSS 2023–2024)
eFigure 2. Directed Acyclic Graph Illustrating the Assumed Causal Structure Underlying the Association Between Childhood Sexual Abuse and Adult Loneliness, 2023–2024 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (N = 53,444)
Data Sharing Statement
