Skip to main content
NCBI home page
American Journal of Public Health logoLink to American Journal of Public Health
. 1989 Aug;79(8):982–986. doi: 10.2105/ajph.79.8.982

Multivariate prediction of total and cardiovascular mortality in an obese Polynesian population.

D E Crews 1
PMCID: PMC1349890  PMID: 2751036

Abstract

The effects of body weight and blood pressure on the risk of total mortality and mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) were examined in a prospective sample of 5,866 adult residents of American Samoa, a Polynesian population noted for exhibiting high levels of obesity. Data collected during 1975-76 were linked to mortality records from 1976 through 1981. In logistic regression models which did not include blood pressure, percent of desirable weight was an important risk factor for mortality from CVD, but it was not an important risk factor when diastolic blood pressure was included in the model. Percent of desirable weight was not related to mortality from all causes combined in either Samoan men or women. Age and diastolic blood pressure were predictors of total and CVD mortality in men and women. These results, in an obese population, suggest that body weight and obesity are not independently related to excess mortality in the very obese, although they may associate with high blood pressure. These results also suggest that relations between physiological characteristics and mortality may vary with cultural, genetic, or other factors not examined in this study.

Full text

PDF
982

Selected References

These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.

  1. Andres R. Effect of obesity on total mortality. Int J Obes. 1980;4(4):381–386. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  2. Andres R., Elahi D., Tobin J. D., Muller D. C., Brant L. Impact of age on weight goals. Ann Intern Med. 1985 Dec;103(6 ):1030–1033. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-103-6-1030. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  3. Barrett-Connor E. L. Obesity, atherosclerosis, and coronary artery disease. Ann Intern Med. 1985 Dec;103(6 ):1010–1019. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-103-6-1010. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  4. Bindon J. R. The influence of infant feeding patterns on growth of children in American Samoa. Med Anthropol. 1985 Spring;9(2):183–195. doi: 10.1080/01459740.1985.9965929. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  5. Crews D. E. Body weight, blood pressure and the risk of total and cardiovascular mortality in an obese population. Hum Biol. 1988 Jun;60(3):417–433. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  6. Crews D. E., MacKeen P. C. Mortality related to cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus in a modernizing population. Soc Sci Med. 1982;16(2):175–181. doi: 10.1016/0277-9536(82)90020-x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  7. Donahue R. P., Abbott R. D., Bloom E., Reed D. M., Yano K. Central obesity and coronary heart disease in men. Lancet. 1987 Apr 11;1(8537):821–824. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(87)91605-9. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  8. Dyer A. R., Stamler J., Berkson D. M., Lindberg H. A. Relationship of relative weight and body mass index to 14-year mortality in the Chicago Peoples Gas Company study. J Chronic Dis. 1975 Feb;28(2):109–123. doi: 10.1016/0021-9681(75)90067-3. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  9. GARN S. M., GERTLER M. M., LEVINE S. A., WHITE P. D. Body weight versus weight standards in coronary artery disease and a healthy group. Ann Intern Med. 1951 Jun;34(6):1416–1420. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-34-6-1416. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  10. Garn S. M., Hawthorne V. M., Pilkington J. J., Pesick S. D. Fatness and mortality in the West of Scotland. Am J Clin Nutr. 1983 Aug;38(2):313–319. doi: 10.1093/ajcn/38.2.313. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  11. Garrison R. J., Castelli W. P. Weight and thirty-year mortality of men in the Framingham Study. Ann Intern Med. 1985 Dec;103(6 ):1006–1009. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-103-6-1006. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  12. Gordon T., Castelli W. P., Hjortland M. C., Kannel W. B., Dawber T. R. Predicting coronary heart disease in middle-aged and older persons. The Framington study. JAMA. 1977 Aug 8;238(6):497–499. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  13. Hanna J. M., Baker P. T. Biocultural correlates to the blood pressure of Samoan migrants in Hawaii. Hum Biol. 1979 Dec;51(4):481–497. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  14. Holtzman E., Goldbourt U., Rosenthal T., Yaari S., Neufeld H. N. Hypertension in middle-aged men. Associated factors and mortality experience. Isr J Med Sci. 1983 Jan;19(1):25–33. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  15. Kannel W. B., Castelli W. P., McNamara P. M., McKee P. A., Feinleib M. Role of blood pressure in the development of congestive heart failure. The Framingham study. N Engl J Med. 1972 Oct 19;287(16):781–787. doi: 10.1056/NEJM197210192871601. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  16. Kannel W. B., Gordon T., Schwartz M. J. Systolic versus diastolic blood pressure and risk of coronary heart disease. The Framingham study. Am J Cardiol. 1971 Apr;27(4):335–346. doi: 10.1016/0002-9149(71)90428-0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  17. Keys A., Aravanis C., Blackburn H., Van Buchem F. S., Buzina R., Djordjevic B. S., Fidanza F., Karvonen M. J., Menotti A., Puddu V. Probability of middle-aged men developing coronary heart disease in five years. Circulation. 1972 Apr;45(4):815–828. doi: 10.1161/01.cir.45.4.815. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  18. Keys A. W. O. Atwater memorial lecture: overweight, obesity, coronary heart disease and mortality. Nutr Rev. 1980 Sep;38(9):297–307. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-4887.1980.tb05967.x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  19. Lew E. A., Garfinkel L. Variations in mortality by weight among 750,000 men and women. J Chronic Dis. 1979;32(8):563–576. doi: 10.1016/0021-9681(79)90119-x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  20. Lew E. A. Mortality and weight: insured lives and the American Cancer Society studies. Ann Intern Med. 1985 Dec;103(6 ):1024–1029. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-103-6-1024. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  21. McGarvey S. T., Baker P. T. The effects of modernization and migration on Samoan blood pressures. Hum Biol. 1979 Dec;51(4):461–479. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  22. NEEL J. V. Diabetes mellitus: a "thrifty" genotype rendered detrimental by "progress"? Am J Hum Genet. 1962 Dec;14:353–362. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  23. Pawson I. G., Janes C. Massive obesity in a migrant Samoan population. Am J Public Health. 1981 May;71(5):508–513. doi: 10.2105/ajph.71.5.508. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  24. Rosenman R. H., Brand R. J., Sholtz R. I., Friedman M. Multivariate prediction of coronary heart disease during 8.5 year follow-up in the Western Collaborative Group Study. Am J Cardiol. 1976 May;37(6):903–910. doi: 10.1016/0002-9149(76)90117-x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  25. Simopoulos A. P. The health implications of overweight and obesity. Nutr Rev. 1985 Feb;43(2):33–40. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-4887.1985.tb06850.x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  26. Simopoulos A. P., Van Itallie T. B. Body weight, health, and longevity. Ann Intern Med. 1984 Feb;100(2):285–295. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-100-2-285. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  27. Sorlie P., Gordon T., Kannel W. B. Body build and mortality. The Framingham study. JAMA. 1980 May 9;243(18):1828–1831. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  28. Stallones R. A. Epidemiologic studies of obesity. Ann Intern Med. 1985 Dec;103(6 ):1003–1005. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-103-6-1003. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  29. Van Itallie T. B. Health implications of overweight and obesity in the United States. Ann Intern Med. 1985 Dec;103(6 ):983–988. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-103-6-983. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  30. Walker S. H., Duncan D. B. Estimation of the probability of an event as a function of several independent variables. Biometrika. 1967 Jun;54(1):167–179. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Articles from American Journal of Public Health are provided here courtesy of American Public Health Association

RESOURCES