Abstract
Patterns of emotional and behavioural difficulties in early childhood are of major public health relevance, as they may mark the onset of persistent vulnerability. This study used a person-centred approach to identify sex differences in co-developmental trajectories of emotional and conduct problems and to examine multi-contextual predictors of risk or adaptation. Data came from the ELISA cohort (Galicia, Spain), a community sample of 2,467 children followed annually since 2016 (48.1% girls; M age = 4.25, SD = 0.99). A joint growth mixture model identified three trajectories from T2 to T6, with good classification quality (entropy = .852): adaptive (67.4%), co-occurring (16.9%), and predominantly emotional (15.6%). SES predicted adaptive versus co-occurring membership. Sex was associated with trajectory membership: girls were more often in predominantly emotional or adaptive pathways, whereas boys were more represented in the co-occurring risk pathway. After controlling for baseline (T1) emotional and conduct problems, T2 predictors distinguished both non-adaptive trajectories from the adaptive one and revealed distinct multi-contextual patterns. The predominantly emotional group was marked by affective vulnerability and a strained caregiving climate, reflected in parenting stress. In contrast, the co-occurring group was characterized by behavioural vulnerability, particularly higher psychopathic-like features, and punitive parenting. Both risk pathways reflected poorer social adjustment, but predominantly emotional membership was associated with peer victimization, whereas co-occurring membership involved greater engagement in bullying. Evidence for sex-specific predictor effects was limited, although socioeconomic disadvantage showed a tentative pattern of greater relevance to girls’ emotional-risk pathway. Overall, findings support sex-informed early risk stratification and prevention targets tailored to distinct developmental risk pathways.
Key messages
• Distinct trajectories and modifiable predictors may help refine early risk stratification and targeted prevention in child public mental health.
• Sex differences in early pathways highlight the need for prevention approaches sensitive to developmental heterogeneity.