The UK government is ill prepared to cope with a flu pandemic, warns a report from the Royal Society and the Academy of Medical Sciences. It says this is because of its lack of consultation with independent experts in the field.
The report recommends that the Department of Health urgently reconsider its decision to stockpile only one antiviral drug, oseltamivir (Tamiflu), in light of emerging scientific evidence that the H5N1 strain of the avian influenza virus can develop resistance to this drug. It says stockpiling the alternative antiviral zanamivir (Relenza), alongside oseltamivir, could provide an important second line of defence in the event of a pandemic.
John Skehel, chairman of the report's working group, said: “We are concerned that decisions are being made—as the UK prepares for a possible pandemic—that fail to take account of expert advice. For example, the decision to continue to stockpile just one antiviral drug is a major concern. This needs to be reconsidered. New evidence that H5N1 can develop resistance to Tamiflu indicates that a combination of antivirals should be stockpiled by the UK for the most effective management of a pandemic.”
The most recent flu pandemic contingency plan of the Department of Health was published in October 2005 and is currently under revision. It is expected to be republished in 2007.
The report also calls for a leading independent flu specialist to be appointed as an adviser to the government to help plan for a pandemic. The expert could work alongside the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser to advise ministers.
And it calls on the government to work more with industry on vaccine production. The report says that it would not be possible to make enough supplies of flu vaccine globally in a pandemic. But limited vaccine supplies can be combined with compounds known as “adjuvants” to increase their effectiveness. Improving vaccine performance with these compounds will help overcome the challenges of producing sufficient H5N1 vaccine against the particular virus that may hit the UK, the report says.
Lindsey Davies, the Department of Health's director of pandemic influenza preparedness, said, “Our antiviral strategy is informed by international consensus and expert advice, and the current stockpile should be adequate to treat all those who fall ill in a pandemic of similar proportions to those in the 20th century.”
But Sir John added, “Research in this area must continue, and up to date scientific information should be central to the government's decision making process. It will ensure we are prepared not only for a possible influenza pandemic but also for any future emerging infectious diseases which may affect the UK.”
Pandemic Influenza: Science to Policy is accessible at www.royalsoc.ac.uk.