Abstract
The 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK resulted in the death of nearly 10 million livestock at a cost that was estimated to be up to 8 billion pounds. Owing to the controversy surrounding the epidemic, the question of whether or not alternative policies would have resulted in significantly better control of the epidemic remains of great interest. A hexagonal lattice simulation of FMD in Cumbria is used to address the central question of whether or not better use could have been made of expert knowledge of FMD transmission to target pre-emptive culling, by assuming that the premises at greatest risk of becoming infected can be targeted for culling. The 2000 UK census and the epidemiological database collected during the epidemic are used to describe key characteristics of disease transmission, and the model is fit to the epidemic time-series. Under the assumptions of the model, the parameters that best fit the epidemic in Cumbria indicate that a policy based on expert knowledge would have exacerbated the epidemic compared with the policy as implemented. However, targeting more distant, high-risk farms could be more valuable under different epidemic conditions, notably, if risk factors of sufficient magnitude could be identified to aid in prioritizing vaccination or culling of farms at high risk of becoming infected.
Full Text
The Full Text of this article is available as a PDF (2.1 MB).
Selected References
These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.
- Doel T. R. Optimisation of the immune response to foot-and-mouth disease vaccines. Vaccine. 1999 Mar 26;17(13-14):1767–1771. doi: 10.1016/s0264-410x(98)00444-7. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Ferguson N. M., Donnelly C. A., Anderson R. M. The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science. 2001 Apr 12;292(5519):1155–1160. doi: 10.1126/science.1061020. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Ferguson N. M., Donnelly C. A., Anderson R. M. Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. Nature. 2001 Oct 4;413(6855):542–548. doi: 10.1038/35097116. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Gibbens J. C., Sharpe C. E., Wilesmith J. W., Mansley L. M., Michalopoulou E., Ryan J. B., Hudson M. Descriptive epidemiology of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain: the first five months. Vet Rec. 2001 Dec 15;149(24):729–743. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Gill Ian, Lewis Chris, Macaldowie Colin. Modelling and FMD. Vet Rec. 2002 Jun 29;150(26):819–819. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Haydon D. T., Chase-Topping M., Shaw D. J., Matthews L., Friar J. K., Wilesmith J., Woolhouse M. E. J. The construction and analysis of epidemic trees with reference to the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth outbreak. Proc Biol Sci. 2003 Jan 22;270(1511):121–127. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2002.2191. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Hughes G. J., Mioulet V., Kitching R. P., Woolhouse M. E. J., Alexandersen S., Donaldson A. I. Foot-and-mouth disease virus infection of sheep: implications for diagnosis and control. Vet Rec. 2002 Jun 8;150(23):724–727. doi: 10.1136/vr.150.23.724. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Kao R. R. Landscape fragmentation and foot-and-mouth disease transmission. Vet Rec. 2001 Jun 16;148(24):746–747. doi: 10.1136/vr.148.24.746. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Kao Rowland R. The role of mathematical modelling in the control of the 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK. Trends Microbiol. 2002 Jun;10(6):279–286. doi: 10.1016/s0966-842x(02)02371-5. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Keeling M. J., Woolhouse M. E. J., May R. M., Davies G., Grenfell B. T. Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease. Nature. 2002 Dec 22;421(6919):136–142. doi: 10.1038/nature01343. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Keeling M. J., Woolhouse M. E., Shaw D. J., Matthews L., Chase-Topping M., Haydon D. T., Cornell S. J., Kappey J., Wilesmith J., Grenfell B. T. Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Science. 2001 Oct 3;294(5543):813–817. doi: 10.1126/science.1065973. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Lloyd A. L., May R. M. Epidemiology. How viruses spread among computers and people. Science. 2001 May 18;292(5520):1316–1317. doi: 10.1126/science.1061076. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Woolhouse M. E., Haydon D. T., Pearson A., Kitching R. P. Failure of vaccination to prevent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease. Epidemiol Infect. 1996 Jun;116(3):363–371. doi: 10.1017/s0950268800052699. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]