Skip to main content
PMC home page
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences logoLink to Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
. 1997 Jul 29;352(1355):781–801. doi: 10.1098/rstb.1997.0062

The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. I. Epidemiological processes, demography of cattle and approaches to control by culling.

C A Donnelly 1, N M Ferguson 1, A C Ghani 1, M E Woolhouse 1, C J Watt 1, R M Anderson 1
PMCID: PMC1691970  PMID: 9279897

Abstract

This paper explores the key epidemiological processes and demographic factors that determined the pattern of transmission of the aetiological agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle herds in Great Britain (GB). The analyses presented utilize data from published and unpublished experimental studies and from the GB central database of confirmed BSE cases. We review the experimental and epidemiological evidence that has both confirmed indirect horizontal transmission via the consumption of infectious material as the major transmission route and provided information on the duration and variability of the dose-dependent incubation period of BSE in cattle. The epidemiological and genetic data pertaining to the possible existence of maternal transmission and/or genetically variable susceptibility to infection is discussed. The demography of British cattle is characterized and the impacts of key demographic features on the observed epidemic profile are discussed. In the main BSE case database, analyses reveal that BSE cases cluster significantly at both the holding and county scale. Furthermore, analysis of longitudinal patterns reveal substantial temporal within-holding correlation. Such clustering of cases suggests a highly heterogeneous infection process. The paper ends with a discussion of how analyses of spatio-temporal clustering inform the design of targeted culling programmes aimed at reducing future disease incidence. We show how the retrospective implementation of culling policies on the BSE case database allows the qualitative evaluation of policy performance, but that model predictions of future trends in case incidence are required to estimate the precise impact of any current or future programme.

Full Text

The Full Text of this article is available as a PDF (714.0 KB).

Selected References

These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.

  1. Anderson R. M., Donnelly C. A., Ferguson N. M., Woolhouse M. E., Watt C. J., Udy H. J., MaWhinney S., Dunstan S. P., Southwood T. R., Wilesmith J. W. Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle. Nature. 1996 Aug 29;382(6594):779–788. doi: 10.1038/382779a0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  2. Barlow R. M., Middleton D. J. Dietary transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy to mice. Vet Rec. 1990 Feb 3;126(5):111–112. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  3. Bradley R. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE): the current situation and research. Eur J Epidemiol. 1991 Sep;7(5):532–544. doi: 10.1007/BF00143136. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  4. Brookmeyer R., Gail M. H. Minimum size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the United States. Lancet. 1986 Dec 6;2(8519):1320–1322. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(86)91444-3. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  5. Bruce M. E., McConnell I., Fraser H., Dickinson A. G. The disease characteristics of different strains of scrapie in Sinc congenic mouse lines: implications for the nature of the agent and host control of pathogenesis. J Gen Virol. 1991 Mar;72(Pt 3):595–603. doi: 10.1099/0022-1317-72-3-595. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  6. Bruce M., Chree A., McConnell I., Foster J., Pearson G., Fraser H. Transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie to mice: strain variation and the species barrier. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1994 Mar 29;343(1306):405–411. doi: 10.1098/rstb.1994.0036. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  7. Collinge J., Sidle K. C., Meads J., Ironside J., Hill A. F. Molecular analysis of prion strain variation and the aetiology of 'new variant' CJD. Nature. 1996 Oct 24;383(6602):685–690. doi: 10.1038/383685a0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  8. Curnow R. N., Hau C. M. The incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in the progeny of affected sires and dams. Vet Rec. 1996 Apr 27;138(17):407–408. doi: 10.1136/vr.138.17.407. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  9. Davies D. C., Kimberlin R. H. Selection of Swaledale sheep of reduced susceptibility to experimental scrapie. Vet Rec. 1985 Feb 23;116(8):211–214. doi: 10.1136/vr.116.8.211. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  10. Dickinson A. G., Meikle V. M., Fraser H. Identification of a gene which controls the incubation period of some strains of scrapie agent in mice. J Comp Pathol. 1968 Jul;78(3):293–299. doi: 10.1016/0021-9975(68)90005-4. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  11. Esslemont R. J. Measuring dairy herd fertility. Vet Rec. 1992 Sep 5;131(10):209–212. doi: 10.1136/vr.131.10.209. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  12. Farquhar C. F., Dornan J., Somerville R. A., Tunstall A. M., Hope J. Effect of Sinc genotype, agent isolate and route of infection on the accumulation of protease-resistant PrP in non-central nervous system tissues during the development of murine scrapie. J Gen Virol. 1994 Mar;75(Pt 3):495–504. doi: 10.1099/0022-1317-75-3-495. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  13. Ferguson N. M., Donnelly C. A., Woolhouse M. E., Anderson R. M. The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1997 Jul 29;352(1355):803–838. doi: 10.1098/rstb.1997.0063. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  14. Foster J. D., Dickinson A. G. Genetic control of scrapie in Cheviot and Suffolk sheep. Vet Rec. 1988 Aug 6;123(6):159–159. doi: 10.1136/vr.123.6.159. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  15. Fraser H., Bruce M. E., Chree A., McConnell I., Wells G. A. Transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie to mice. J Gen Virol. 1992 Aug;73(Pt 8):1891–1897. doi: 10.1099/0022-1317-73-8-1891. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  16. Hau C. M., Curnow R. N. Separating the environmental and genetic factors that may be causes of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1996 Jul 29;351(1342):913–920. doi: 10.1098/rstb.1996.0084. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  17. Hunter N., Dann J. C., Bennett A. D., Somerville R. A., McConnell I., Hope J. Are Sinc and the PrP gene congruent? Evidence from PrP gene analysis in Sinc congenic mice. J Gen Virol. 1992 Oct;73(Pt 10):2751–2755. doi: 10.1099/0022-1317-73-10-2751. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  18. Middleton D. J., Barlow R. M. Failure to transmit bovine spongiform encephalopathy to mice by feeding them with extraneural tissues of affected cattle. Vet Rec. 1993 May 29;132(22):545–547. doi: 10.1136/vr.132.22.545. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  19. Ray D. E., Jassim A. H., Armstrong D. V., Wiersma F., Schuh J. D. Influence of season and microclimate on fertility of dairy cows in a hot-arid environment. Int J Biometeorol. 1992 Aug;36(3):141–145. doi: 10.1007/BF01224816. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  20. Simmons M. M., Harris P., Jeffrey M., Meek S. C., Blamire I. W., Wells G. A. BSE in Great Britain: consistency of the neurohistopathological findings in two random annual samples of clinically suspect cases. Vet Rec. 1996 Feb 24;138(8):175–177. doi: 10.1136/vr.138.8.175. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  21. Wells G. A., Dawson M., Hawkins S. A., Green R. B., Dexter I., Francis M. E., Simmons M. M., Austin A. R., Horigan M. W. Infectivity in the ileum of cattle challenged orally with bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Vet Rec. 1994 Jul 9;135(2):40–41. doi: 10.1136/vr.135.2.40. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  22. Wells G. A., Scott A. C., Johnson C. T., Gunning R. F., Hancock R. D., Jeffrey M., Dawson M., Bradley R. A novel progressive spongiform encephalopathy in cattle. Vet Rec. 1987 Oct 31;121(18):419–420. doi: 10.1136/vr.121.18.419. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  23. Wijeratne W. V., Curnow R. N. A study of the inheritance of susceptibility to bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Vet Rec. 1990 Jan 6;126(1):5–8. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  24. Wilesmith J. W., Ryan J. B., Atkinson M. J. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: epidemiological studies on the origin. Vet Rec. 1991 Mar 2;128(9):199–203. doi: 10.1136/vr.128.9.199. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  25. Wilesmith J. W., Ryan J. B., Hueston W. D. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: case-control studies of calf feeding practices and meat and bonemeal inclusion in proprietary concentrates. Res Vet Sci. 1992 May;52(3):325–331. doi: 10.1016/0034-5288(92)90032-w. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  26. Wilesmith J. W., Ryan J. B., Hueston W. D., Hoinville L. J. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: epidemiological features 1985 to 1990. Vet Rec. 1992 Feb 1;130(5):90–94. doi: 10.1136/vr.130.5.90. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  27. Wilesmith J. W., Wells G. A., Cranwell M. P., Ryan J. B. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: epidemiological studies. Vet Rec. 1988 Dec 17;123(25):638–644. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Articles from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences are provided here courtesy of The Royal Society

RESOURCES