Skip to main content
PMC home page
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences logoLink to Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
. 1998 Feb 28;353(1366):315–326. doi: 10.1098/rstb.1998.0212

Rates of speciation in the fossil record.

J J Sepkoski Jr 1
PMCID: PMC1692211  PMID: 11541734

Abstract

Data from palaeontology and biodiversity suggest that the global biota should produce an average of three new species per year. However, the fossil record shows large variation around this mean. Rates of origination have declined through the Phanerozoic. This appears to have been largely a function of sorting among higher taxa (especially classes), which exhibit characteristic rates of speciation (and extinction) that differ among them by nearly an order of magnitude. Secular decline of origination rates is hardly constant, however; many positive deviations reflect accelerated speciation during rebounds from mass extinctions. There has also been general decline in rates of speciation within major taxa through their histories, although rates have tended to remain higher among members in tropical regions. Finally, pulses of speciation appear sometimes to be associated with climate change, although moderate oscillations of climate do not necessarily promote speciation despite forcing changes in species' geographical ranges.

Full Text

The Full Text of this article is available as a PDF (307.5 KB).

Selected References

These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.

  1. Allmon W. D., Rosenberg G., Portell R. W., Schindler K. S. Diversity of atlantic coastal plain mollusks since the pliocene. Science. 1993 Jun 11;260(5114):1626–1629. doi: 10.1126/science.260.5114.1626. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  2. Alvarez L. W., Alvarez W., Asaro F., Michel H. V. Extraterrestrial cause for the cretaceous-tertiary extinction. Science. 1980 Jun 6;208(4448):1095–1108. doi: 10.1126/science.208.4448.1095. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  3. Erwin D. H., Valentine J. W., Sepkoski J. J., Jr A comparative study of diversification events: the early Paleozoic versus the Mesozoic. Evolution. 1987;41(6):1177–1186. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  4. Guilderson T. P., Fairbanks R. G., Rubenstone J. L. Tropical temperature variations since 20,000 years ago: modulating interhemispheric climate change. Science. 1994 Feb 4;263(5147):663–665. doi: 10.1126/science.263.5147.663. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  5. Hansen T. A. Larval dispersal and species longevity in lower tertiary gastropods. Science. 1978 Feb 24;199(4331):885–887. doi: 10.1126/science.199.4331.885. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  6. Jackson J. B., Cheetham A. H. Evolutionary significance of morphospecies: a test with cheilostome bryozoa. Science. 1990 May 4;248(4955):579–583. doi: 10.1126/science.248.4955.579. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  7. Labandeira C. C., Sepkoski J. J., Jr Insect diversity in the fossil record. Science. 1993 Jul 16;261(5119):310–315. doi: 10.1126/science.11536548. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  8. May R. M. How many species are there on Earth? Science. 1988 Sep 16;241(4872):1441–1449. doi: 10.1126/science.241.4872.1441. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  9. Raup D. M. A kill curve for Phanerozoic marine species. Paleobiology. 1991;17(1):37–48. doi: 10.1017/s0094837300010332. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  10. Raup D. M., Boyajian G. E. Patterns of generic extinction in the fossil record. Paleobiology. 1988;14(2):109–125. doi: 10.1017/s0094837300011866. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  11. Raup D. M., Sepkoski J. J., Jr Mass extinctions in the marine fossil record. Science. 1982 Mar 19;215(4539):1501–1503. doi: 10.1126/science.215.4539.1501. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  12. Raup D. M. Size of the permo-triassic bottleneck and its evolutionary implications. Science. 1979 Oct 12;206(4415):217–218. doi: 10.1126/science.206.4415.217. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  13. Sepkoski J. J., Jr A model of onshore-offshore change in faunal diversity. Paleobiology. 1991;17(1):58–77. doi: 10.1017/s0094837300010356. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  14. Sepkoski J. J., Jr Biodiversity: past, present, and future. J Paleontol. 1997 Jul;71(4):533–539. doi: 10.1017/s0022336000040026. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  15. Sepkoski J. J., Jr, Kendrick D. C. Numerical experiments with model monophyletic and paraphyletic taxa. Paleobiology. 1993;19(2):168–184. doi: 10.1017/s0094837300015852. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  16. Sepkoski J. J., Jr Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life. J Geol Soc London. 1989;146:7–19. doi: 10.1144/gsjgs.146.1.0007. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  17. Sepkoski J. J., Jr Ten years in the library: new data confirm paleontological patterns. Paleobiology. 1993 Winter;19(1):43–51. doi: 10.1017/s0094837300012306. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  18. Stehli F. G., Douglas R. G., Newell N. D. Generation and maintenance of gradients in taxonomic diversity. Science. 1969 May 23;164(3882):947–949. doi: 10.1126/science.164.3882.947. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  19. Van Valen L. Two modes of evolution. Nature. 1974 Nov 22;252(5481):298–300. doi: 10.1038/252298a0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  20. Wright S. Evolution in Mendelian Populations. Genetics. 1931 Mar;16(2):97–159. doi: 10.1093/genetics/16.2.97. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  21. Zink R. M., Slowinski J. B. Evidence from molecular systematics for decreased avian diversification in the pleistocene Epoch. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1995 Jun 20;92(13):5832–5835. doi: 10.1073/pnas.92.13.5832. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Articles from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences are provided here courtesy of The Royal Society

RESOURCES