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. 2001 Jul;86(1):21–26. doi: 10.1136/heart.86.1.21

Left ventricular dysfunction, natriuretic peptides, and mortality in an urban population

T McDonagh 1, A Cunningham 1, C Morrison 1, J McMurray 1, I Ford 1, J Morton 1, H Dargie 1
PMCID: PMC1729832  PMID: 11410555

Abstract

OBJECTIVE—To report the mortality of left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVD), assessed objectively by echocardiography, and its association with natriuretic peptide hormones in a random sample of 1640 men and women aged 25-74 years from a geographical, urban population.
METHODS—Left ventricular function was measured by echocardiography in 1640 attendees studied in 1992-3. LVD was defined as a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ⩽ 30%. Plasma concentrations of N-terminal atrial natriuretic peptide (N-ANP) and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) were measured by standard radioimmunoassays. Mortality was documented at four years.
RESULTS—The four year all cause mortality rate in the whole cohort was 4.9% (80 deaths). It was 21% (nine deaths) in those with an LVEF ⩽ 30% and 4% in those whose LVEF was > 30% (p < 0.001). The median (interquartile range) BNP concentration in those who died was 16.9 pg/ml (8.8-27) and 7.8 pg/ml (3.4-13) in survivors (p < 0.0001). Similarly, N-ANP had a median concentration of 2.35 ng/ml (1.32-3.36) in those with a fatal outcome and 1.27 ng/ml (0.9-2.0) in those alive at four years (p < 0.0001). Subjects with an LVEF ⩽ 40% also had a significant mortality rate of 17% if they also had a BNP concentration ⩾ 17.9 pg/ml compared with 6.8% if their BNP was below this concentration (p = 0.013). Multivariate analysis revealed the independent predictors of four year all cause mortality to be increasing age (p < 0.001), a BNP concentration ⩾ 17.9 pg/ml (p = 0.006), the presence of ischaemic heart disease (p = 0.03), and male sex (p = 0.04).
CONCLUSIONS—LVD is associated with a considerable mortality rate in this population. BNP also independently predicts outcome. In addition to its role as a diagnostic aid in chronic heart failure and LVD, it provides prognostic information and clarifies the meaning of a given degree of LVD.


Keywords: epidemiology; left ventricular dysfunction; natriuretic peptides

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Figure 1  .

Figure 1  

Kaplan-Meier survival curves for left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) categories (> 40%, ⩽ 40%, ⩽ 35%, and ⩽ 30%). The p values above and below the respective LVEF cut off points were as follows: LVEF ⩽ and > 40%, p < 0.0001; LVEF ⩽ and > 35%, p < 0.0001; LVEF ⩽ and > 30%, p < 0.001. The number of subjects in each ejection fraction category was as follows: LVEF > 40% = 1194; LVEF ⩽ 40% = 273; LVEF ⩽ 35% = 113; LVEF ⩽ 30% = 43. 

Figure 2  .

Figure 2  

Kaplan-Meier survival curves for various categories of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) concentrations (< 10 pg/ml, 10 ⩽ BNP < 20 pg/ml, 20 ⩽ BNP < 30 pg/ml, and BNP ⩾ 30 pg/ml). The actual mortality rates % (n) for these categories were 2% (16), 6.7% (23), 12.5% (10), and 18% (12), respectively. The log rank statistic was 53, p < 0.0001.    

Figure 3  .

Figure 3  

Kaplan-Meier survival curves for BNP, dichotomised at a concentration of 17.9 pg/ml. There were 33 deaths/1067 (3.1%) in those with BNP < 17.9 pg/ml and 28 deaths/188 at risk (14.9%) in those with an increased BNP concentration (p < 0.0001, log rank statistic 49.5).

Figure 4  .

Figure 4  

Kaplan-Meier survival curves for those with a left ventricular ejection fraction categories of ⩽ 40% stratified by a BNP concentration < 17.9 or ⩾ 17.9 pg/ml. The p value was 0.013. There were 12 deaths/175 (6.8%) in those with a BNP < 17.9 pg/ml and 12 deaths/70 at risk (17%) in those with an increased BNP concentration.

Selected References

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