Skip to main content
PMC home page
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health logoLink to Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
. 2002 Aug;56(8):617–621. doi: 10.1136/jech.56.8.617

Climate variability and Ross River virus transmission

S Tong 1, P Bi 1, K Donald 1, A McMichael 1
PMCID: PMC1732227  PMID: 12118054

Abstract

Objectives: (1) To examine the feasibility to link climate data with monthly incidence of Ross River virus (RRv). (2) To assess the impact of climate variability on the RRv transmission.

Design: An ecological time series analysis was performed on the data collected between 1985 to 1996 in Queensland, Australia.

Methods: Information on the notified RRv cases was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Spearman's rank correlation analyses were performed to examine the relation between climate variability and the monthly incidence of notified RRv infections. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to perform a time series analysis. As maximum and minimum temperatures were highly correlated with each other (rs=0.75), two separate models were developed.

Results: For the eight major cities in Queensland, the climate-RRv correlation coefficients were in the range of 0.12 to 0.52 for maximum and minimum temperatures, -0.10 to 0.46 for rainfall, and 0.11 to 0.52 for relative humidity and high tide. For the whole State, rainfall (partial regression coefficient: 0.017 (95% confidence intervals 0.009 to 0.025) in Model I and 0.018 (0.010 to 0.026) in Model II), and high tidal level (0.030 (0.006 to 0.054) in Model I and 0.029 (0.005 to 0.053) in Model II) seemed to have played significant parts in the transmission of RRv in Queensland. Maximum temperature was also marginally significantly associated with the incidence of RRv infection.

Conclusion: Rainfall, temperature, and tidal levels may be important environmental determinants in the transmission cycles of RRv disease.

Full Text

The Full Text of this article is available as a PDF (142.4 KB).

Selected References

These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.

  1. Aaskov J. G., Mataika J. U., Lawrence G. W., Rabukawaqa V., Tucker M. M., Miles J. A., Dalglish D. A. An epidemic of Ross River virus infection in Fiji, 1979. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1981 Sep;30(5):1053–1059. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1981.30.1053. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  2. Aaskov J. G., Ross P. V., Harper J. J., Donaldson M. D. Isolation of Ross River virus from epidemic polyarthritis patients in Australia. Aust J Exp Biol Med Sci. 1985 Oct;63(Pt 5):587–597. doi: 10.1038/icb.1985.62. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  3. Ansari M. Z., Shope R. E. Epidemiology of arboviral infections. Public Health Rev. 1994;22(1-2):1–26. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  4. Boughton C. R. Arboviruses and disease in Australia. Med J Aust. 1994 Jan 3;160(1):27–28. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  5. Cox P. M., Betts R. A., Jones C. D., Spall S. A., Totterdell I. J. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature. 2000 Nov 9;408(6809):184–187. doi: 10.1038/35041539. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  6. Curran M., Harvey B., Crerar S., Oliver G., D'Souza R., Myint H., Rann C., Andrews R. Australia's notifiable diseases status, 1996. Annual report of the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. Commun Dis Intell. 1997 Oct 2;21(20):281–307. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  7. Dale P. E., Morris C. D. Culex annulirostris breeding sites in urban areas: using remote sensing and digital image analysis to develop a rapid predictor of potential breeding areas. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1996 Jun;12(2 Pt 1):316–320. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  8. Easterling D. R., Meehl G. A., Parmesan C., Changnon S. A., Karl T. R., Mearns L. O. Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science. 2000 Sep 22;289(5487):2068–2074. doi: 10.1126/science.289.5487.2068. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  9. Mackenzie J. S., Broom A. K., Hall R. A., Johansen C. A., Lindsay M. D., Phillips D. A., Ritchie S. A., Russell R. C., Smith D. W. Arboviruses in the Australian region, 1990 to 1998. Commun Dis Intell. 1998 Jun 11;22(6):93–100. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  10. Mackenzie J. S., Lindsay M. D., Coelen R. J., Broom A. K., Hall R. A., Smith D. W. Arboviruses causing human disease in the Australasian zoogeographic region. Arch Virol. 1994;136(3-4):447–467. doi: 10.1007/BF01321074. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  11. Russell R. C. Vectors vs. humans in Australia--who is on top down under? An update on vector-borne disease and research on vectors in Australia. J Vector Ecol. 1998 Jun;23(1):1–46. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  12. Ryan P. A., Martin L., Mackenzie J. S., Kay B. H. Investigation of gray-headed flying foxes (Pteropus poliocephalus) (Megachiroptera: Pteropodidae) and mosquitoes in the ecology of Ross River virus in Australia. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1997 Oct;57(4):476–482. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1997.57.476. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  13. Sammels L. M., Coelen R. J., Lindsay M. D., Mackenzie J. S. Geographic distribution and evolution of Ross River virus in Australia and the Pacific Islands. Virology. 1995 Sep 10;212(1):20–29. doi: 10.1006/viro.1995.1449. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  14. Selden S. M., Cameron A. S. Changing epidemiology of Ross River virus disease in South Australia. Med J Aust. 1996 Sep 16;165(6):313–317. doi: 10.5694/j.1326-5377.1996.tb124989.x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  15. Sutherst R. W. Implications of global change and climate variability for vector-borne diseases: generic approaches to impact assessments. Int J Parasitol. 1998 Jun;28(6):935–945. doi: 10.1016/s0020-7519(98)00056-3. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  16. Tong S., Bi P., Hayes J., Donald K., Mackenzie J. Geographic variation of notified Ross River virus infections in Queensland, Australia, 1985-1996. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2001 Sep;65(3):171–176. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2001.65.171. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  17. Tong S., Bi P., Parton K., Hobbs J., McMichael A. J. Climate variability and transmission of epidemic polyarthritis. Lancet. 1998 Apr 11;351(9109):1100–1100. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(05)79379-X. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Articles from Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health are provided here courtesy of BMJ Publishing Group

RESOURCES