We recently suggested in a study on 909 adolescent and young adults aged 15+ years (mean 16.1) that the prevalence of autoimmune diseases in coeliac adults is related to the length of gluten exposure, independently of the expected age effect.1 Recently, Sategna Guidetti et al (Gut 2001;49:502–5) presented a paper which, in the title itself, negates this hypothesis.
However, we feel quite happy with the contribution of Sategna Guidetti et al as we found strong confirmation of our findings in their paper. As mentioned by the authors, their paper stimulates some interesting observations.
The population they studied was affected by a very strong “age” selection as the vast majority were aged over 40 years and hence all had maximum exposure to the risk factors (100% had been exposed to gluten for >20 years, including “actual gluten exposure”) and there was no modulation of effect, just the end point, which surprisingly was identical to our own results. We have not studied a paediatric population, but young adults with a mean age of 16.7 years and the risk factor was evaluated over the whole range of ages before the outcome (autoimmune disease) was expected.
“Age at diagnosis” is a robust variable and is unlikely to be biased. Sategna Guidetti et al showed, very consistently, that age at diagnosis was related to outcome. The actual prevalence of autoimmune diseases was even higher than that observed by us (possibly due to age range?).
The variable “actual gluten exposure”, artificially built by the authors, was largely based on age at diagnosis (hard data) together with minor components related to self reported compliance and follow up.
In summary, if they included in a multivariate model the strong variable “age at diagnosis” which explains a significant part of the variance in the outcome variable, it is very unlikely that a second variable (supposed “actual gluten exposure”) containing the first strong variable adds any further contribution to the outcome variable.
One important prerequisite for a multivariate model is to include variables independent of each other, which was definitely not the case here. In the logistic regression model the variables included were the “strong” ones, as expected in this type of analysis. The outcome (prevalence of autoimmune diseases) was significantly related to present age and age at diagnosis of coeliac disease. What else could contribute to the derived variable “actual gluten exposure”?
To add strength to this finding, we have new prospective data from a cohort of 74 coeliac patients (46 females) diagnosed before the age of five years and followed up for an average period of 18.4 years (range 10–30); their actual mean age is now 20.34 years. Of these, 5/74 developed an autoimmune disease during this follow up period (two dermatitis herpetiformis, one thyroiditis, one MMC, one psoriasis): all of these cases had been exposed to a gluten challenge for 11–48 months after a variable length of time on a gluten free diet. These indeed had “gluten exposure”, unfortunately added on a relatively precocious diagnosis. None of the other 69 patients has developed an autoimmune disease to date.
We thank our colleagues for their significant confirmation to our findings and hope that they will share our will to explore the biological reasons which may explain why age at diagnosis is so strongly correlated with the prevalence of autoimmune diseases in adults.
References
- 1.Ventura A, Magazzú G, Greco L et al. Duration of exposure to gluten and risk for autoimmune disorders in patients with coeliac disease. Gastroenterology 1999;117:297–303. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]