Abstract
Male and female age standardised mortality and incidence rates of colorectal cancer have increased over the most recent 30 years in New Zealand. Among men and women aged 40 to 74, age standardised mortality and incidence rates increased 18 to 105%. However, age standardised mortality and incidence rates among younger men and women have declined from 14 to 69%. Analysis of trends in age specific mortality and incidence rates indicates that the occurrence of colorectal cancer has been declining equally for men and women in successive cohorts born about 1943 to 1953 in New Zealand. This decline in the frequency of colorectal cancer among recent generations was apparent for both the right and left sides of the colon and the rectum. Age-specific trends in coronary heart disease and breast cancer differed from those apparent for colorectal cancer, suggesting that the factors producing the reduction in colorectal cancer risk may affect these diseases among different age groups or may not be of major aetiological importance in these diseases. These trends provide empirical evidence that the occurrence of colorectal cancer can be reduced by at least 50% with a substantial component of the risk being determined before the age of 30. Further study is needed to establish whether changes in risk factors at older ages contribute to the prevention of the disease.
Full text
PDF




Selected References
These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.
- Armstrong B., Doll R. Environmental factors and cancer incidence and mortality in different countries, with special reference to dietary practices. Int J Cancer. 1975 Apr 15;15(4):617–631. doi: 10.1002/ijc.2910150411. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Barker D. J., Osmond C. Infant mortality, childhood nutrition, and ischaemic heart disease in England and Wales. Lancet. 1986 May 10;1(8489):1077–1081. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(86)91340-1. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Bartram H. P., Wynder E. L. Physical activity and colon cancer risk? Physiological considerations. Am J Gastroenterol. 1989 Feb;84(2):109–112. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Beaglehole R., Jackson R. Coronary heart disease mortality, morbidity, and risk factor trends in New Zealand. Cardiology. 1985;72(1-2):29–34. doi: 10.1159/000173838. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Birkbeck J. A. The role of dairy products in the New Zealand diet. N Z Med J. 1981 Nov 25;94(696):386–387. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Boyle P., Zaridze D. G., Smans M. Descriptive epidemiology of colorectal cancer. Int J Cancer. 1985 Jul 15;36(1):9–18. doi: 10.1002/ijc.2910360103. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Burkitt D. P. Epidemiology of cancer of the colon and rectum. Cancer. 1971 Jul;28(1):3–13. doi: 10.1002/1097-0142(197107)28:1<3::aid-cncr2820280104>3.0.co;2-n. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Foster F. H. The New Zealand cancer registry. N Z Med J. 1977 Oct 12;86(597):341–343. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Haenszel W., Kurihara M. Studies of Japanese migrants. I. Mortality from cancer and other diseases among Japanese in the United States. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1968 Jan;40(1):43–68. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Jackson R., Beaglehole R. Trends in dietary fat and cigarette smoking and the decline in coronary heart disease in New Zealand. Int J Epidemiol. 1987 Sep;16(3):377–382. doi: 10.1093/ije/16.3.377. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Kune S., Kune G. A., Watson L. The Melbourne colorectal cancer study: incidence findings by age, sex, site, migrants and religion. Int J Epidemiol. 1986 Dec;15(4):483–493. doi: 10.1093/ije/15.4.483. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- La Vecchia C., Negri E., Decarli A., Fasoli M., Cislaghi C. Cancer mortality in Italy: an overview of age-specific and age-standardised trends from 1955 to 1984. Tumori. 1990 Apr 30;76(2):87–166. doi: 10.1177/030089169007600202. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Longnecker M. P., Orza M. J., Adams M. E., Vioque J., Chalmers T. C. A meta-analysis of alcoholic beverage consumption in relation to risk of colorectal cancer. Cancer Causes Control. 1990 Jul;1(1):59–68. doi: 10.1007/BF00053184. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- McMichael A. J., Giles G. G. Cancer in migrants to Australia: extending the descriptive epidemiological data. Cancer Res. 1988 Feb 1;48(3):751–756. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- McMichael A. J., Potter J. D., Hetzel B. S. Time trends in colo-rectal cancer mortality in relation to food and alcohol consumption: United States, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. Int J Epidemiol. 1979 Dec;8(4):295–303. doi: 10.1093/ije/8.4.295. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- McMichael A. J., Potter J. D. Reproduction, endogenous and exogenous sex hormones, and colon cancer: a review and hypothesis. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1980 Dec;65(6):1201–1207. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Miller A. B. Risk factors from geographic epidemiology for gastrointestinal cancer. Cancer. 1982 Dec 1;50(11 Suppl):2533–2540. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Nair P. P. Diet, nutrition intake, and metabolism in populations at high and low risk for colon cancer. Introduction: correlates of diet, nutrient intake, and metabolism in relation to colon cancer. Am J Clin Nutr. 1984 Oct;40(4 Suppl):880–886. doi: 10.1093/ajcn/40.4.880. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Shimizu H., Mack T. M., Ross R. K., Henderson B. E. Cancer of the gastrointestinal tract among Japanese and white immigrants in Los Angeles County. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1987 Feb;78(2):223–228. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Simpson A. Variations in operation rates in New Zealand. N Z Med J. 1986 Oct 22;99(812):798–801. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Smith A. H., Pearce N. E., Joseph J. G. Major colorectal cancer aetiological hypotheses do not explain mortality trends among Maori and non-Maori New Zealanders. Int J Epidemiol. 1985 Mar;14(1):79–85. doi: 10.1093/ije/14.1.79. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Willett W. The search for the causes of breast and colon cancer. Nature. 1989 Mar 30;338(6214):389–394. doi: 10.1038/338389a0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Zaridze D. G. Environmental etiology of large-bowel cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1983 Mar;70(3):389–400. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
