Editor—The title of the paper by McManus et al is rather misleading in saying that it is a 20 year prospective study.1 By definition this would mean that the study was planned 20 years ago and the recruitment of subjects was over the same time. But the subjects were selected retrospectively over seven years only, and at the start no such study was planned.
A prospective study is planned at the start and then continuously followed up over the said period or concluded at the end of the predicted period. None of these criteria are filled here, and hence this study can hardly be classified as prospective. Furthermore, a study from entrants to one medical school cannot justify it as predictors of medical careers in UK doctors. Any such study should ideally be a multicentre study.
The grades at which many doctors entered during 1975 to 1982 may never be shortlisted today. We do not know of any school that takes BBB these days. The difference among the new entrants to any medical school in the United Kingdom is hardly two (AAA or AAB) points these days, and therefore grades can not be taken as predictors of career. The number of participants in this article is not representative of the total number of new entrants over seven years in the United Kingdom as a whole and that takes away the relevance of this project in this particular context.
The grades obtained at A level are based mainly on theoretical grounds, whereas career progression in medicine entails theoretical, clinical, and communication skills. Achievement at A level does not equate with achievement in professional career owing to differing criteria. How many medical schools require new entrants to take an intelligence test?
Competing interests: None declared.
References
- 1.McManus IC, Smithers E, Partridge P, Keeling A, Fleming PR. A levels and intelligence as predictors of medical careers in UK doctors: 20 year prospective study. BMJ 2003;327: 139-42. (19 July.) [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]