Abstract
Projections for the period 1995–2029 suggest that the number of men dying from mesothelioma in Western Europe each year will almost double over the next 20 years, from 5000 in 1998 to about 9000 around 2018, and then decline, with a total of about a quarter of a million deaths over the next 35 years. The highest risk will be suffered by men born around 1945–50, of whom about 1 in 150 will die of mesothelioma. Asbestos use in Western Europe remained high until 1980, and substantial quantities are still used in several European countries. These projections are based on the fit of a simple age and birth cohort model to male pleural cancer mortality from 1970 to 1989 for six countries (Britain, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands and Switzerland) which together account for three-quarters of the population of Western Europe. The model was tested by comparing observed and predicted numbers of deaths for the period 1990–94. The ratio of mesothelioma to recorded pleural cancer mortality has been 1.6:1 in Britain but was assumed to be 1:1 in other countries. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaign
Keywords: mesothelioma, pleural cancer, mortality trends, Europe
Full Text
The Full Text of this article is available as a PDF (92.1 KB).
Selected References
These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.
- Cullen M. R. Chrysotile asbestos: enough is enough. Lancet. 1998 May 9;351(9113):1377–1378. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(05)79440-X. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Decarli A., La Vecchia C., Mezzanotte G., Cislaghi C. Birth cohort, time, and age effects in Italian cancer mortality. Cancer. 1987 Mar 15;59(6):1221–1232. doi: 10.1002/1097-0142(19870315)59:6<1221::aid-cncr2820590632>3.0.co;2-3. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Dement J. M., Harris R. L., Jr, Symons M. J., Shy C. M. Exposures and mortality among chrysotile asbestos workers. Part I: exposure estimates. Am J Ind Med. 1983;4(3):399–419. doi: 10.1002/ajim.4700040303. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Dement J. M., Harris R. L., Jr, Symons M. J., Shy C. M. Exposures and mortality among chrysotile asbestos workers. Part II: mortality. Am J Ind Med. 1983;4(3):421–433. doi: 10.1002/ajim.4700040304. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- La Vecchia C., Lucchini F., Negri E., Boyle P., Maisonneuve P., Levi F. Trends of cancer mortality in Europe, 1955-1989: II, Respiratory tract, bone, connective and soft tissue sarcomas, and skin. Eur J Cancer. 1992;28(2-3):514–599. doi: 10.1016/s0959-8049(05)80091-7. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- McDonald A. D., Case B. W., Churg A., Dufresne A., Gibbs G. W., Sébastien P., McDonald J. C. Mesothelioma in Quebec chrysotile miners and millers: epidemiology and aetiology. Ann Occup Hyg. 1997 Dec;41(6):707–719. doi: 10.1016/S0003-4878(97)00020-3. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- McDonald A. D., Fry J. S., Woolley A. J., McDonald J. Dust exposure and mortality in an American chrysotile textile plant. Br J Ind Med. 1983 Nov;40(4):361–367. doi: 10.1136/oem.40.4.361. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Peto J., Seidman H., Selikoff I. J. Mesothelioma mortality in asbestos workers: implications for models of carcinogenesis and risk assessment. Br J Cancer. 1982 Jan;45(1):124–135. doi: 10.1038/bjc.1982.15. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]