Table 2.

 Clinical and cost outcomes from decision model, where prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance was 15% and type 2 diabetes 7.5%, and sensitivity and specificity of screening tests was 85% and 80%, respectively. Figures are mean values per person (95% credible intervals) for no screening and mean difference from or compared with no screening (95% credible intervals) for all other strategies

	No screening	Screening for diabetes only	Screening for diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance
			Lifestyle interventions	Pharmacological interventions
Undiscounted
Total life years	30.34 (27.75 to 32.86)	0.06 (0.02 to 0.12)	0.15 (0.08 to 0.22)	0.13 (0.06 to 0.20)
QALYs	28.06 (23.49 to 32.01)	0.07 (−0.03 to 0.18)	0.22 (0.08 to 0.36)	0.17 (0.03 to 0.32)
Years spent without diabetes	20.85 (10.36 to 29.45)	—	0.33 (0.21 to 0.43)	0.20 (0.10 to 0.37)
Lifetime risk of diabetes (%)	64.55 (18.02 to 91.83)	—	−0.98 (−0.50 to −1.42)	−0.54 (−0.21 to −1.17)
Total cost	17 290 (5746 to 39580)	730 (−9 to 2341)	610 (−373 to 2693)	579 (−428 to 2658)
Cost per life year gained	—	11 460	4179	4768
Cost per QALY gained	—	8681	2863	3429
Cost per case prevented	—	—	62 810	105 000
Probability of cost effectiveness at willingness to pay threshold per QALY (%):
£20 000		68.1	98.6	94.7
£30 000		76.5	99.6	97.3
Discounted at 3.5% a year for both costs and benefits
Total life years	18.19 (17.25 to 18.98)	0.02 (−0.01 to 0.05)	0.05 (0.03 to 0.08)	0.05 (0.02 to 0.07)
QALYs	17.13 (15.02 to 18.49)	0.03 (−0.02 to 0.09)	0.09 (0.03 to 0.17)	0.07 (0.01 to 0.15)
Years spent diabetes free	13.69 (7.99 to 17.08)	—	0.17 (0.11 to 0.23)	0.11 (0.06 to 0.19)
Total cost	7636 (2636 to 19 370)	587 (61 to 1525)	580 (−103 to 1760)	528 (−163 to 1719)
Cost per life year gained	—	23 710	10 900	11 690
Cost per QALY gained	—	14 150	6242	7023
Probability of cost effectiveness at willingness to pay threshold per QALY (%):
£20 000		48.6	93.0	85.0
£30 000		60.8	97.4	91.6