This handbook, published by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), is intended to provide guidance to people involved in risk analysis activities, and to help them in achieving a consistent approach to the risk analysis process, including the risk assessment and risk management components of the process. It may also be useful to those who make decisions based on risk analysis recommendations.
The conciseness and practicality of this publication are likely to make it a favourite with specialists in the field. Presentation as 2 separate volumes makes information easily accessible.
It may be useful to mention that, although each country is entitled to develop its own risk analysis methodology, it is highly recommended that it be consistent with frameworks provided by international organizations, such as those provided by the World Trade Organization and the OIE, for example. Professionals can refer to this 2-volume handbook for consistency of analysis in an international regulatory context, as it provides excellent guidance in that respect.
Risk analysis methodology is not a scientific discipline in itself, although its accuracy and validity depends on reliable scientific data and peer review. Recommendations derived from a risk analysis are open to discussion, and they may change as more knowledge becomes available. The natural course of events can also prove or disprove assumptions on which the risk analysis was based. In this publication, Risk is defined as “the likelihood of the occurrence and the likely magnitude of the consequences of an adverse event to animal and human health in the importing country during a specified time period”.
Volume 1 has 4 chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the concept of risk analysis in an international environment, and defines terminology.
Chapter 2 explains lucidly the different components and tasks inherent to conducting the analysis. One of the components is Risk Assessment, which is a method for evaluating the likelihood and relevance of adverse consequences upon entry or spreading of a pathogenic agent in an importing country. It should be noted that, although evaluating such likelihood in terms of statistical probability contributes to accuracy, a quantitative assessment is not indispensable to complete a valid risk analysis. Risk may be assessed qualitatively only, according to the circumstances and data available. Chapter 3 explains how to apply the Risk Analysis framework recommended by the OIE, and the conclusions of this volume are summarized in Chapter 4.
Volume 2 has 8 chapters dedicated to the statistical methods used in risk analysis. The first 4 chapters introduce the reader to the principles of a quantitative risk assessment, and provide an overview of relevant statistical theory, namely: probability distributions; binomial, central limit and Baye’s theorems; and binomial and Poisson’s probability distributions. The chapters that follow further elaborate on statistical methods applicable to risk assessment, for example, binomial versus hypergeometric probability calculations, determining a suitable distribution for a given case, and 2nd order modelling. Handy mathematical tables can be found in the appendices.
The last chapter in this volume provides guidelines for developing a quantitative risk assessment model. Some considerations listed are also useful for a qualitative risk assessment.
This volume has the advantage of being concise, yet comprehensive. For those not familiar with statistical methodology; however, it may not provide enough exposure to fully understand mathematical formulae approached for the first time. Background knowledge of statistics is definitely helpful.
Both volumes are clearly written in a straightforward manner. The information provided is specific and relevant to risk analysis as applied to importation of animals and animal products. The immediate applicability of the information contained makes these 2 volumes invaluable both as a reference, and as working tools. Because the statistical methods are discussed in a book that stands alone, users have the option of selecting the volume that better fits their needs.