Skip to main content
NCBI home page
Journal of the National Medical Association logoLink to Journal of the National Medical Association
. 1995 Apr;87(4):264–272.

A statistical model estimating the number of African-American physicians in the United States.

G King 1, R Bendel 1
PMCID: PMC2607813  PMID: 7752278

Abstract

Using mark-recaptured methodology and network sampling procedures, a statistical model was developed to estimate the number of African-American physicians in the United States. A sample (stratified by geographic region, medical specialty and an age surrogate) was selected from the National Medical Association's Masterfile of Black Physicians (NMAMBP). Respondents were asked to list the names of five black physicians who resided or practiced in their immediate geographic area. Data also were collected about citizenry as well as other demographic and professional information. The NMAMBP was used mathematically as a "marked" group that could then be "recaptured," allowing mark-recapture methodology to be used as the nucleus of the statistical estimation procedure. The results revealed that in 1991, the total number of US African-American physicians (black US citizens) was estimated to be 16,282 with a conservative standard error of 764 and an approximate 95% confidence interval, yielding a range of 14,754 to 17,810 physicians. This estimate is from 17% to about 32% lower than the 21,538 black doctors reported by the 1990 Bureau of the Census and has important implications for attempts to reform the health-care system and policies designed to produce more African-American physicians.

Full text

PDF
264

Selected References

These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.

  1. Blackwell J. E. Recruitment and production of black physicians in the seventies. J Natl Med Assoc. 1981 Jun;73(6):489–493. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  2. Buerhaus P. I., Zuidema G. D. On the supply of physicians. Arch Surg. 1990 Nov;125(11):1425–1429. doi: 10.1001/archsurg.1990.01410230019002. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  3. Cohen A. B., Cantor J. C., Barker D. C., Hughes R. G. Young physicians and the future of the medical profession. Health Aff (Millwood) 1990 Winter;9(4):138–148. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.9.4.138. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  4. Fleming G. V., Beard L. M., O'Connor K. G. Black pediatricians: career concerns and choices. Pediatrics. 1989 Jun;83(6):951–957. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  5. Gray L. C. The geographic and functional distribution of black physicians: some research and policy considerations. Am J Public Health. 1977 Jun;67(6):519–526. doi: 10.2105/ajph.67.6.519. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  6. Hanft R. S., White C. C. Constraining the supply of physicians: effects on black physicians. Milbank Q. 1987;65 (Suppl 2):249–269. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  7. Harris J. E. How many doctors are enough? Health Aff (Millwood) 1986 Winter;5(4):73–83. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.5.4.73. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  8. Haynes M. A. Distribution of black physicians in the United States, 1967. JAMA. 1969 Oct 6;210(1):93–95. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  9. Jacobsen S. J., Rimm A. A. The projected physician surplus reevaluated. Health Aff (Millwood) 1987 Summer;6(2):48–56. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.6.2.48. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  10. Johnson D. G., Lloyd S. M., Jr, Miller R. L. A second survey of graduates of a traditionally black college of medicine. Acad Med. 1989 Feb;64(2):87–94. doi: 10.1097/00001888-198902000-00013. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  11. Keith S. N., Bell R. M., Swanson A. G., Williams A. P. Effects of affirmative action in medical schools. A study of the class of 1975. N Engl J Med. 1985 Dec 12;313(24):1519–1525. doi: 10.1056/NEJM198512123132406. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  12. Kindig D. A., Yan G. Physician supply in rural areas with large minority populations. Health Aff (Millwood) 1993 Summer;12(2):177–184. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.12.2.177. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  13. Kletke P. R., Marder W. D., Silberger A. B. The growing proportion of female physicians: implications for US physician supply. Am J Public Health. 1990 Mar;80(3):300–304. doi: 10.2105/ajph.80.3.300. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  14. Linn L. S., Lewis C. E. Attitudes toward self-care among practicing physicians. Med Care. 1979 Feb;17(2):183–190. doi: 10.1097/00005650-197902000-00008. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  15. Lloyd S. M., Jr, Johnson D. G. Practice patterns of black physicians: results of a survey of Howard University College of Medicine alumni. J Natl Med Assoc. 1982 Feb;74(2):129–141. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  16. Melton M. S. Health manpower and Negro health: the Negro physician. J Med Educ. 1968 Jul;43(7):798–814. doi: 10.1097/00001888-196807000-00003. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  18. Reitzes D. C., Elkhanialy H. Black physicians and minority group health care--the impact of NMF. Med Care. 1976 Dec;14(12):1052–1060. doi: 10.1097/00005650-197612000-00008. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  19. Schwartz W. B., Mendelson D. N. No evidence of an emerging physician surplus. An analysis of change in physicians' work load and income. JAMA. 1990 Jan 26;263(4):557–560. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  20. Schwartz W. B., Sloan F. A., Mendelson D. N. Why there will be little or no physician surplus between now and the year 2000. N Engl J Med. 1988 Apr 7;318(14):892–897. doi: 10.1056/NEJM198804073181405. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  21. Seber G. A. A review of estimating animal abundance. Biometrics. 1986 Jun;42(2):267–292. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  22. Simpson C. E., Jr, Aronoff R. Factors affecting the supply of minority physicians in 2000. Public Health Rep. 1988 Mar-Apr;103(2):178–184. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  23. Singer A. M. Projections of physician supply and demand: a summary of HRSA and AMA studies. Acad Med. 1989 May;64(5):235–240. doi: 10.1097/00001888-198905000-00003. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  24. Thompson T. Curbing the black physician manpower shortage. J Med Educ. 1974 Oct;49(10):944–950. doi: 10.1097/00001888-197410000-00003. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  25. Thompson T. Selected characteristics of black physicians in the United States, 1972. JAMA. 1974 Sep 23;229(13):1758–1761. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  26. Wechsler H., Dorsey J. L., Bovey J. D. A follow-up study of residents in internal-medicine, pediatrics and obstetrics-gynecology training programs in Massachusetts. Implications for the supply of primary-care physicians. N Engl J Med. 1978 Jan 5;298(1):15–21. doi: 10.1056/NEJM197801052980104. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  27. Wells K. B., Lewis C. E., Leake B., Ware J. E., Jr Do physicians preach what they practice? A study of physicians' health habits and counseling practices. JAMA. 1984 Nov 23;252(20):2846–2848. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  28. Wittes J. T., Colton T., Sidel V. W. Capture-recapture methods for assessing the completeness of case ascertainment when using multiple information sources. J Chronic Dis. 1974 Feb;27(1):25–36. doi: 10.1016/0021-9681(74)90005-8. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  29. Wittes J., Sidel V. W. A generalization of the simple capture-recapture model with applications to epidemiological research. J Chronic Dis. 1968 Aug;21(5):287–301. doi: 10.1016/0021-9681(68)90038-6. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Articles from Journal of the National Medical Association are provided here courtesy of National Medical Association

RESOURCES