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. 1997 Apr-Jun;3(2):83–94. doi: 10.3201/eid0302.970201

The economic impact of a bioterrorist attack: are prevention and postattack intervention programs justifiable?

A F Kaufmann 1, M I Meltzer 1, G P Schmid 1
PMCID: PMC2627615  PMID: 9204289

Abstract

Understanding and quantifying the impact of a bioterrorist attack are essential in developing public health preparedness for such an attack. We constructed a model that compares the impact of three classic agents of biologic warfare (Bacillus anthracis, Brucella melitensis, and Francisella tularensis) when released as aerosols in the suburb of a major city. The model shows that the economic impact of a bioterrorist attack can range from an estimated $477.7 million per 100,000 persons exposed (brucellosis scenario) to $26.2 billion per 100,000 persons exposed (anthrax scenario). Rapid implementation of a postattack prophylaxis program is the single most important means of reducing these losses. By using an insurance analogy, our model provides economic justification for preparedness measures.

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Selected References

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