Table 3.

 Primary outcome and sensitivity analyses with EDSS and deviation score

	Predicted progression from transition probabilities		Actual progression observed with treatment	Difference (actual less predicted)	Deviation score (%)
	Without treatment	With treatment
Per protocol analysis (n=3686)
EDSS	0.47	0.29	0.57 (0.544 to 0.603)	0.28	—
Utility score	0.0254	0.0158	0.0266	—	113
Including DMT switchers (n=3931)
EDSS	0.48	0.30	0.59 (0.559 to 0.617)	0.28	—
Utility score	0.0258	0.0162	0.0271	—	113
Including SPMS converters on DMTs (n=3690)
EDSS	0.48	0.30	0.58 (0.550 to 0.610)	0.27	—
Utility score	0.0261	0.0164	0.0275	—	114
Excluding extreme outliers (n=3650)
EDSS	0.47	0.30	0.54 (0.514 to 0.570)	0.25	—
Utility score	0.0254	0.0158	0.0250	—	96
Subgroup analysis with year 2 confirmed scores (n=1479)
EDSS	0.50	0.32	0.46 (0.422 to 0.507)	0.14	—
Utility score	0.0263	0.0162	0.0214	—	51
Predicted change in unconfirmed year 2 scores (n=3686)
EDSS	0.0.47	0.29	0.48*	0.19	—
Utility score	0.0254	0.0158	0.0225	—	70
Imputing missing year 2 scores—best case scenario (n=3686)
EDSS	0.53	0.33	0.60 (0.566 to 0.627)	0.27	—
Utility score	0.0290	0.0179	0.0285	—	95
Imputing missing year 2 scores—worst case scenario (n=3686)
EDSS	0.53	0.33	0.66 (0.629 to 0.699)	0.33	—
Utility score	0.0290	0.0179	0.0351	—	156
Unadjusted baseline scores (n=3686)
EDSS	0.49	0.31	0.20 (0.163 to 0.241)	−0.11	—
Utility score	0.0257	0.0157	0.0073	—	−84

DMTs=disease modifying treatments; EDSS=expanded disability status scale.

*95% confidence intervals cannot be calculated by standard methods because of indirect method used to estimate mean EDSS change.