Editor—Easton discussed health risk reporting in the media.1 A lot can be learnt about people's perceptions of risk by examining lottery play. This in itself may have implications for how journalists report risk probabilities in media settings.
The probability of winning lottery prizes are the basic risk dimensions that may help determine whether a person gambles on a particular activity in the first place. The ordinary “social gambler” probably does not think about the probability of winning. What most people will concentrate on is the amount that could be won, rather than the 1 in 14 million probability of winning.
How probability operates is generally not understood. Some of the general public seem not to believe that the probability of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 being picked from the 49 balls is equally as likely as any other sequence of six numbers. Some also believe that future predictions can be based successfully on previous draws.
People tend to overestimate positive outcomes and underestimate negative ones. This may have implications for reporting health risks in the media. For example, if someone is told they have a one in fourteen million chance of being killed on any particular Saturday night they would hardly give it a second thought because the chances of anything untoward happening are infinitesimal. However, given the same probability of winning the National Lottery, people suddenly become over optimistic.
The public's understanding of risk probability could be improved. However, journalists still have a responsibility to report risks in context. Too many reports seem to say, for example, “Coffee drinkers are three times as likely to develop X” while omitting to point out that the risks are still infinitesimal.
Competing interests: None declared.
References
- 1.Easton G. Reporting risk—that's entertainment. BMJ 2003;327: 256. (27 September.) [Google Scholar]