Table 3.

Results of Base-Case Analyses. The table depicts a visual heuristic to help identify the optimal strategy by patient age, cyst size, and patient preference for unadjusted vs. quality adjusted survival. Shading demonstrates the degree of superiority over the competing strategies. Each number represents the length of discounted years that a patient will live, on average, with each individual strategy. For instance, if an 85 year old patient has a 3cm cyst, then a pancreaticoduodenectomy (Whipple) adds a modest 0.356 years over the other strategies. However, if quality of life is desired over unadjusted survival, then the invasive surveillance strategy is superior, although it provides a minimal benefit of 0.030 years of quality adjusted life compared to the next closest competitor.

		Life Years				Quality Adjusted Life Years
Age	Cyst Size (cm)	Do Nothing	Non-Invasive	Invasive	Whipple	Do Nothing	Non-Invasive	Invasive	Whipple
65	1	12.713	12.760	12.763	12.733	12.546	12.180	12.196	11.449
	2	10.353	11.556	11.571	12.090	11.105	10.966	10.992	10.810
	3	9.713	10.099	10.129	12.090	9.361	9.497	9.534	10.810
75	1	8.786	8.810	8.813	8.615	8.677	8.469	8.480	7.646
	2	8.005	8.143	8.156	8.284	7.830	7.776	7.794	7.298
	3	4.883	4.960	4.968	4.969	6.814	6.941	6.968	7.298
85	1	5.256	5.265	5.267	5.084	5.195	5.092	5.098	4.387
	2	4.883	4.960	4.968	4.969	4.774	4.760	4.770	4.248
	3	4.449	4.598	4.613	4.969	4.278	4.366	4.381	4.248

Shading		Strength of Recommendation
		Strong superiority over other strategies (yields > 1 additional years of life)
		Modest superiority over other strategies (yields ≥ 0.3 additional years of life)
		Minimal superiority over other strategies (yields < 0.3 additional years of life)