Table 2.
Prediction of 5-year risk of geographic atrophy by risk score involving 5 risk factors (N=942 patients)
| Endpoint GA | CGA | Any size GA | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA risk score | N | In either eye (n=64) | In untreated eye (n=45) | In either eye (n=90) | In untreated eye (n=68) | In either eye (n=324) | In untreated eye (n=214) |
| 0–6 | 165 | 1 (0.60) | 0 (0.00) | 2 (1.21) | 1 (0.61) | 21 (12.7) | 13 (7.88) |
| 7–8 | 205 | 7 (3.41) | 4 (1.95) | 5 (2.44) | 4 (1.95) | 57 (27.8) | 34 (16.6) |
| 9 | 150 | 6 (4.00) | 3 (2.00) | 12 (8.00) | 9 (6.00) | 48 (32.0) | 35 (23.3) |
| 10 | 99 | 6 (6.06) | 4 (4.04) | 11 (11.1) | 7 (7.07) | 34 (34.3) | 19 (19.2) |
| 11 | 98 | 11 (11.2) | 8 (8.16) | 17 (17.4) | 12 (12.2) | 45 (45.9) | 29 (29.6) |
| 12 | 128 | 20 (15.6) | 15 (11.7) | 21 (16.4) | 15 (11.7) | 61 (47.7) | 45 (35.2) |
| >12 | 97 | 13 (13.4) | 11 (11.3) | 22 (22.7) | 20 (20.6) | 58 (59.8) | 39 (40.2) |
| AUC (95% CI*) | 0.76 (0.71–0.81) | 0.79 (0.75–0.84) | 0.76 (0.71–0.80) | 0.77 (0.72–0.81) | 0.68 (0.65–0.72) | 0.68 (0.64–0.72) | |
AUC = area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; GA = geographic atrophy; CGA = GA involving the foveal center; CI = Confidence interval.
*
Based on the bootstrap of 2000 samples.