Using foresight to prepare animal health today for tomorrow’s challenges

Abstract

Foresight has been introduced in Canada in the area of animal health as a process to broaden thinking about the future and inform policy development. Its initial use and evolution through projects and studies over the past decade are described, demonstrating real action in animal health. Despite positive, continuing, and exciting results in animal health policy development, foresight’s widespread acceptance and use thus far have been limited. Critical components for success, drawn from the Canadian experience, are described, and recommendations are offered for further action in animal health.

Over the past decade, the challenges facing the managers of animal health and the livestock production industry in Canada have become increasingly frequent and complex. One has only to recall the multiple outbreaks of avian influenza, the on-going story of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, the impacts of disease on both export and import trade, and the introduction of emerging and zoonotic infectious diseases such as West Nile virus infection and influenza A(H₁N₁), to realize the enormity of these changing challenges.

The thinking and approaches applied to enhance animal health in Canada, which were regarded as effective in the past, now need to be reviewed to better anticipate, prevent, and manage animal health challenges of the future. Foresight is an approach and a process which requires broad thinking and results in the generation of multiple scenarios and ideas. Some of these ideas must be further developed and implemented into policy and subsequent action. This relationship may be referred to as the foresight and foresight-informed policy approach.

Introduction

Foresight is an approach which considers multiple, plausible, future scenarios from a 5- to 25-year time horizon. The process accommodates uncertainty and diversity, and highlights emerging opportunities and potential threats (1). Foresight, however, is not a plan, forecast, policy, or prediction of the future (2).

Foresight is a process that has been used to broaden thinking about the future without attempting to predict one future. It is the art of “taking the long view” in the decisions that need to be made today (3). It was introduced to animal health in North America to elucidate enlightened thinking for meaningful, insightful, strategic, and effective animal health objectives for the future.

This paper describes the evolution of foresight activities in Canadian animal health. It strives to elucidate the connectedness of foresight exercises, the broad thinking which is generated in these exercises, how this thinking stimulates policy development and the implementation of these policies to improve animal health management. Recommendations for continuing successful foresight initiatives in animal health are outlined, and the current use of foresight in animal health is described.

The evolution of foresight in Canadian animal health over the past decade

The Science and Technology Foresight Pilot Project (STFPP)

Foresight was introduced into animal health in Canada along a definite pathway which began with the Science and Technology Foresight Pilot Project launched by the Office of Technology Foresight at the National Research Council of Canada. The purpose of this study was to use foresight to better anticipate the unexpected and to increase the resilience of Canada’s science and technology readiness across 13 federal science-based departments and agencies (4).

International Workshop on Animal Disposal Alternatives (IWADA)

The introduction of foresight into animal health came when one of the authors (F.M.) from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) was participating as a working group member on the STFPP, and initially perceived how animal health issues could be advanced through foresight.

The opportunity to apply the foresight approach came in a Canadian sponsored, international study which was organized and conducted (by F.M. and N.W.) to determine alternatives to the destruction and disposal of large numbers of domestic animals in the “stamping out” process for disease eradication (5). As part of this study, foresight was introduced to expand the thinking related to alternatives for mass destruction and disposal. The result was the Animal Health Foresight Project sponsored by the CFIA and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) (6).

The Animal Health Foresight Project

This project produced a concept for a new “paradigm for animal disease control” based on 3 fundamental elements:

• a focus on animal health optimization in disease control through proactive management of risk;

• a shared decision-making responsibility and accountability among all stakeholders; and

• a convergence of animal health and public health strategies, interests, and priorities relating to zoonotic and newly emerging diseases.

The vision of “animal health optimization” was an enhanced positive contribution of food animal production to societal well-being brought about by:

• securing a safe, high quality food supply,

• enhancing public well-being through zoonotic disease control,

• achieving a vibrant economic environment for industry,

• capitalizing on research and technological achievements to aid disease control,

• reflecting animal stewardship through responsible animal welfare and a high standard of animal health (6).

Projects that were inspired by or aligned with the fundamental elements of this new paradigm, as shown in Table 1, include:

Table 1.

Studies stimulated by or aligned with the Animal Health Foresight Project

Animal Health Foresight Project 2005
Date initiated	Project	Principle	Present status
2006	Veterinary Medical Education Foresight Project	Future veterinary medical education to address societal needs	COMPLETE — implementation in progress
2008	National Farmed Animal Health and Welfare Strategy	Collaborative governance	COMPLETE — implementation in progress
2008	Fore-CAN — Foresight for Animal Health	Proactive management of risk	Projected completion in 2011

1. The Association of American Veterinary Medical Colleges (AAVMC) — stimulated by the AHFP, sponsored a foresight study (VMEFP) to consider what would be required for veterinary medical education in the future. This study resulted in a concept for a responsive and flexible veterinary medical education system for enhancing effectiveness in meeting the future needs of society (7).

   As a result of this concept the AAVMC developed a strategic plan (AAVMC-SP), which led to the initiation of the North American Veterinary Medical Education Consortium (NAVMEC) to develop a flexible road map for veterinary medical education, supported by accreditation and testing/licensure, so that the veterinary profession can meet changing societal needs (8).

2. The National Farmed Animal Health and Welfare Strategy (NFAHWS) — is aligned with the Animal Health Foresight Project by focusing on collaborative governance amongst the major stakeholders of the farmed animal industry, provincial and territorial governments, and the Federal government. This has included the creation of a stakeholder collaborative National Farmed Animal Health and Welfare Council, which is currently operating in an advisory capacity.

3. Foresight for Canadian Animal Health (Fore-CAN) project, directed by the CFIA and sponsored by the Centre for Security Science of National Defence, entitled “Foresight for Canadian Animal Health,” focuses on capability development for the Animal Health Emergency Management system in Canada as a priority for national security (9).

   The chronological sequence and interrelatedness of these studies are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1.

Evolution of foresight and foresight-informed policy in Canadian animal health.

What we have learned about designing successful foresight and foresight-linked policy initiatives

Based on our experience over the past decade, we have learned that it is necessary to realistically understand what foresight can contribute to animal health policy development, and to anticipate how the success of foresight can be judged. Certain questions can be asked in advance, such as:

What are reasonable expectations of foresight?

The most important expectation of foresight is that it will inform and guide policy decisions that will produce an impact on animal health programs.

Is foresight relevant to decisions and choices in animal health?

The expected outputs of the foresight processes are visions of the future, recommendations, and options for action (10). To achieve relevance to animal health there must be a direct connection to informing the decisions to be made.

It is critical that the foresight exercise results be analyzed by subject matter experts to give a practical understanding.

In addition, we have learned what determines success in the use of foresight. The key factor is that foresight must be able to provide perspectives and thinking that allow senior stakeholders to commit to facilitating change. It must have the support of groups that can and will influence potential futures (11).

The use of foresight has led to fundamental shifts in animal health thinking, resulting in major changes in policy approaches and in the direction for veterinary medical education. Specifically, we have learned that:

• carrying foresight through to action requires sustained sponsorship and specific dedicated individuals who believe in the value of foresight, champion it, and carry it forward;

• leadership is essential and especially visionary leadership at a senior level to provide consistent support and sponsorship in order to achieve a successful use of foresight;

• experience in Canada has shown that, for foresight to be viable in science and animal health in particular, it is critical that knowledgeable and experienced people who recognize the foresight potential, dedicate themselves to pursuing the use of the foresight process for innovation in animal health policy development;

• there must be a clearly stated animal health objective at the outset of a foresight exercise to maintain the required degree of focus in the study, and finally;

• there must be a clear understanding of what foresight is, what it is not, and what to expect from foresight.

Several components are required for the successful use of the foresight approach. Foresight will be able to generate the thinking which will facilitate policy development in animal health in Canada if these specific components are incorporated into the process. These components include criteria for a successful foresight process, and an assessment plan.

In aid of supporting a successful foresight process, we offer a checklist of criteria for success, and an assessment plan for verifying success after the process.

The criteria for a successful foresight process

• the relevance of foresight must be clear to decision-makers;

• a foresight project must produce sound, practical recommendations and options for action that will influence policy in animal health, will influence organizational behavior, and will result in on-going change;

• the changes must be demonstrable;

• allowance must be given for sufficient time to achieve real change;

• discussion of the foresight process only is not sufficient;

• there must be demonstration of new and innovative visions of the future and action items which will influence decisions of today for decision-makers;

• the technical analysis and evaluation of the output of the foresight exercise is absolutely critical; and

• this analysis must be done by individuals skilled in the subject matter, in order to complete and realize the full value of foresight.

An assessment plan

The success of each foresight exercise can be measured by answering specific questions after the exercise.

• Has it articulated innovative visions of the future?

• Has it introduced new innovative thinking or is it merely presenting current thinking?

• Has it gone beyond describing the foresight process?

• Do the recommendations and action options resonate with relevance to the current decisions facing decision-makers?

• Has it influenced the prioritization and future direction of the research agenda so that it is relevant to the future needs of the animal health program?

• Has it added value to what is currently being considered?

• Has it demonstrably impacted organizational behavior and produced on-going change?

• Has it influenced government policy?

Recommendations to create action in animal health from foresight in the future

The following priority recommendations are put forward for the future use of foresight in advancing animal health policy development.

1. Leadership

Leadership in animal health foresight studies should come from the major stakeholders in animal health, namely the federal government, provincial/territorial governments, the animal production industries, and other nongovernmental organizations with an interest in animal health. Further, the CFIA and the Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada should consider co-sponsoring foresight studies in animal health. The analysis of the foresight outputs should be conducted by open-minded individuals who are dedicated to animal health objectives, who are skilled in the subject matter, and who are “committed to outcomes.”

2. On-going action through foresight

In the rapidly changing global environment for animal health, foresight exercises on future animal health should be conducted every 5 years.

The outputs of these exercises should be published to make them widely available for multiple users in the farmed animal industry, the National Farmed Animal Health and Welfare Council, provincial/territorial and federal governments, academia, and for graduate student studies.

Over the past decade, foresight has made significant contributions which have stimulated continued actions in the approaches to animal health in Canada. This has led to the current Fore-CAN project. Despite this, foresight has not been widely understood, broadly accepted, nor consistently used in animal health policy development in Canada. The Fore-CAN project has an unprecedented opportunity to reverse this trend and significantly influence the emergency management of animal health in Canada.

3. Collaboration and synergy with aligned initiatives

Figure 1 illustrates the evolution of foresight initiatives and the opportunities for policy development generated by the use of this tool.

An example of the synergy, which can exist between various initiatives, is the National Farmed Animal Health and Welfare Strategy initiative (NFAHW Strategy). This joint farmed animal industry/government study was undertaken to develop a strategy for farmed animal health and welfare in Canada. A key critical element to the NFAHW Strategy was the establishment of the NFAHW Council with representation from all major stakeholders to address a mandate for shared policy formulation (12). This action responds to 1 of the 3 fundamental elements in the Animal Health Foresight Project as “shared decision-making responsibility and accountability among all stakeholders.”

The NFAHW Strategy could serve as a central focal point for other animal health initiatives. To maintain its vitality and relevance to current and future changing challenges, foresight could provide a forward look and input guidance for the continued renewal of the Strategy, appropriate to future needs. Such an exercise should incorporate wildlife disease, the future science agenda, and public health because of their interrelatedness to potential impacts on animal health.

Current use of foresight in animal health

These positive early experiences with foresight in animal health have not resulted in widespread acceptance and use of foresight in animal health policy development in Canada. The current Fore-CAN project on the Animal Health Emergency Management System in Canada is attempting to address this deficiency. It is also responding to another of the 3 fundamental elements identified in the Animal Health Foresight Project, namely, “focus on animal health optimization in disease control through proactive management”.

The Fore-CAN project will articulate a future vision of animal health emergency management in Canada and will identify recommendations and options for action. These should be sent to key animal health decision-makers in all relevant governments and the farmed animal industry seeking their comments on the relevance of this input to their animal health policy decisions.

An evaluation of these comments will establish if the study has achieved relevance in significantly influencing future animal health policy.

The AHFP was the first foresight study that strictly addressed animal health in Canada. The 3 elements of animal health optimization through pro-active risk management, shared responsibility and accountability for decision making, and convergence of animal health and public health, identified there, were clearly fundamental since they continue to emerge in successive animal health foresight initiatives and may be regarded as pillars of animal health policy development. Foresight carries potential for continuing to contribute to animal health policy development and affords an opportunity to enhance the innovation, competitiveness, and protection of one of Canada’s most important assets, the health of Canadian livestock.