Table 1. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis of the two best fitting models of species-wide demographic history in P. balsamifera.
| Standard neutral model | Bottleneck model | |
|---|---|---|
| % of retained simulations | 42.2 | 57.2 |
| Theta (πs) × 10−3 | 4.79 (4.34–5.30) | 4.83 (4.10–6.12) |
| Recombination (ρs) × 103− | 0.66 (0.028–1.86) | 1.11 (0.078–1.89) |
| Current population size | 32,000 (28,900–35,300) | 32,200 (27,300–40,800) |
| Time to size changea | – | 639,000 (503,000–3,320,000) |
| Size change population size | – | 36,600 (7,100–50,500) |
| Time to ancestral population1 | – | 1,740,000 (637,000–4,490,000) |
| Ancestral population size | – | 148,000 (76,700–194,000) |
A third model of exponential growth provided a poor fit to the observed data (0.6% of retained simulations), and so was not included for parameter estimation.
a
Time estimates were converted from coalescent units (= 4N0 generations) to absolute time (in years), assuming a neutral mutation rate per site per year of 2.5 × 10−9 (Tuskan et al. 2006).