Conclusions about specialties don’t match evidence

The CMAJ news article “Specialty training out-of-sync with job market”¹ claims that “Canada’s aging population and the increasing incidence of chronic disease is driving a need for generalists.” Evidence suggests that future demands, at least in Ontario, will be for certain specialties and that generalists will be faced with the worst job prospects. ² In 2030, the three specialties in Ontario with the greatest surplus will be general internal medicine (832), family medicine — emergency room (514) and emergency medicine (273). The three specialties with the greatest demand will be diagnostic radiology (–434), psychiatry (–334) and cardiology (–204). Highly competitive specialties such as dermatology (–66), ophthalmology (–116) and plastic surgery (–19) will be in demand also.² As a current representative of medical students, I completely agree with the spirit of this article. More assistance with career planning and understanding the realities concerning human resources in different fields is needed. A focused effort from the national level to the medical school level is required. However, conclusions about future needs should be put on hold until the evidence is collected.