Table 1.

Probability of heads when flipping a randomly selected coin, under 2 hypotheses

Hypothesis	Heads probability
	Conditional on coin type†		Unconditional
	Nickel	Quarter
Nickels biased toward heads	0.80	0.10	0.73
Quarters biased toward heads	0.10	0.80	0.17

^†Coin is selected from a bag containing 90% nickels and 10% quarters.