Table 3.
Predictors of Survival in the Derivation Cohort
| STEMI* | WITHOUT-STEMI | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variables in the Model | HR (95% CI) (<1 Month) | HR (95% CI) (1–12 Months) | HR (95% CI) (Over 12 Months) | HR (95% CI) (<1 Month) | HR (95% CI) (1–12 Months) | HR (95% CI) (Over 12 Months) |
| Demographics | ||||||
| Age, per 5 years | 1.21 (1.17, 1.25) | 1.36 (1.31, 1.42) | 1.32 (1.25, 1.4) | 1.27 (1.23, 1.3) | 1.26 (1.24, 1.28) | 1.32 (1.29, 1.36) |
| Male | 0.86 (0.79, 0.93) | 0.99 (0.87, 1.12) | 1.21 (1.02, 1.44) | 0.92 (0.86, 0.99) | 1.17 (1.11, 1.23) | 1.14 (1.08, 1.21) |
| Race (reference: White) | ||||||
| African American | 1.11 (0.91, 1.36) | 1.46 (1.17, 1.82) | 1.27 (0.89, 1.82) | 0.82 (0.66, 1.02) | 1.17 (1.06, 1.3) | 1.19 (1.05, 1.34) |
| Other | 1.03 (0.87, 1.21) | 1.09 (0.88, 1.36) | 0.55 (0.35, 0.86) | 1.01 (0.87, 1.18) | 1.04 (0.94, 1.15) | 0.96 (0.86, 1.08) |
| Co-Morbidity and Prior History | ||||||
| BMI, truncated > 30, per 5 units increase | 0.87 (0.82, 0.92) | 0.71 (0.65, 0.77) | 0.77 (0.68, 0.88) | 0.76 (0.72, 0.8) | 0.7 (0.68, 0.73) | 0.77 (0.73, 0.80) |
| Smoking history (reference: Never Smoker) | ||||||
| Former Smoker | 0.95 (0.87, 1.05) | 1.15 (1.01, 1.3) | 1.31 (1.08, 1.6) | 1.12 (1.03, 1.21) | 1.12 (1.06, 1.17) | 1.31 (1.23, 1.4) |
| Current Smoker | 0.93 (0.82, 1.06) | 1.14 (0.95, 1.36) | 1.23 (0.96, 1.57) | 1.17 (1.03, 1.33) | 1.27 (1.17, 1.37) | 1.61 (1.47, 1.76) |
| Diabetes (reference: No Diabetes) | ||||||
| Non-Insulin Diabetes | 1.08 (0.97, 1.19) | 1.6 (1.40, 1.82) | 1.31 (1.06, 1.62) | 1.12 (1.02, 1.22) | 1.34 (1.28, 1.41) | 1.27 (1.19, 1.35) |
| Insulin Diabetes | 1.20 (1.02, 1.42) | 1.97 (1.64, 2.38) | 1.65 (1.18, 2.31) | 1.74 (1.57, 1.92) | 1.86 (1.74, 1.99) | 1.86 (1.71, 2.03) |
| Hypertension | 0.97 (0.89, 1.07) | 1.13 (0.97, 1.31) | 1.25 (1.03, 1.52) | 0.94 (0.85, 1.03) | 0.97 (0.91, 1.03) | 1.03 (0.96, 1.12) |
| Dyslipidemia | 0.72 (0.66, 0.78) | 0.74 (0.66, 0.84) | 0.71 (0.59, 0.85) | 0.78 (0.72, 0.84) | 0.71 (0.67, 0.75) | 0.71 (0.67, 0.75) |
| Prior MI* | 0.95 (0.84, 1.06) | 0.95 (0.81, 1.12) | 1.23 (1.00, 1.50) | 0.99 (0.91, 1.08) | 1.07 (1.01, 1.13) | 1.09 (1.02, 1.16) |
| Prior CABG* | 1.12 (0.96, 1.29) | 1.04 (0.87, 1.26) | 1.36 (1.07, 1.72) | 1.00 (0.92, 1.09) | 1.01 (0.95, 1.06) | 1.05 (0.99, 1.12) |
| Prior Valve Surgery | 1.17 (0.76, 1.79) | 2.18 (1.45, 3.29) | 0.79 (0.31, 2.02) | 0.97 (0.77, 1.24) | 1.11 (0.96, 1.28) | 1.41 (1.20, 1.67) |
| Prior PCI* | 0.83 (0.72, 0.95) | 1.17 (0.98, 1.39) | 0.98 (0.77, 1.24) | 0.78 (0.71, 0.85) | 0.91 (0.87, 0.96) | 1.02 (0.96, 1.09) |
| History of Heart Failure | 1.18 (1.05, 1.34) | 1.58 (1.31, 1.91) | 1.51 (1.13, 2.02) | 1.51 (1.38, 1.66) | 1.64 (1.55, 1.73) | 1.6 (1.51, 1.7) |
| Renal Failure (ref: GFR>30, No Dialysis) | 1.24 (1.08, 1.44) | 1.60 (1.29, 1.98) | 1.89 (1.33, 2.69) | 1.49 (1.31, 1.69) | 1.86 (1.72, 2.02) | 1.68 (1.50, 1.88) |
| GFR*, truncated <30/>70, per 10 unit decrease | 1.24 (1.19, 1.29) | 1.13 (1.07, 1.19) | 1.03 (0.95, 1.11) | 1.16 (1.12, 1.2) | 1.17 (1.14, 1.2) | 1.15 (1.12, 1.18) |
| Chronic Lung Disease | 1.24 (1.11, 1.38) | 1.69 (1.48, 1.92) | 1.88 (1.54, 2.29) | 1.49 (1.38, 1.61) | 1.70 (1.61, 1.79) | 1.64 (1.54, 1.74) |
| Cerebral Arterial Disease | 1.30 (1.16, 1.45) | 1.36 (1.17, 1.58) | 1.58 (1.26, 1.99) | 1.23 (1.13, 1.34) | 1.17 (1.10, 1.23) | 1.20 (1.12, 1.27) |
| Peripheral Arterial Disease | 1.17 (1.02, 1.33) | 1.17 (0.99, 1.38) | 1.55 (1.23, 1.96) | 1.21 (1.11, 1.32) | 1.34 (1.27, 1.41) | 1.31 (1.22, 1.40) |
| Severity of Illness | ||||||
| NYHA* class (reference: NYHA Class 1) | ||||||
| NYHA Class 2 | 0.79 (0.67, 0.94) | 1.20 (0.95, 1.51) | 0.96 (0.67, 1.38) | 0.93 (0.82, 1.05) | 0.90 (0.84, 0.96) | 0.99 (0.92, 1.08) |
| NYHA Class 3 | 0.84 (0.72, 0.98) | 1.13 (0.93, 1.36) | 0.94 (0.73, 1.22) | 1.07 (0.96, 1.19) | 1.01 (0.95, 1.08) | 1.06 (0.99, 1.14) |
| NYHA Class 4 | 1.05 (0.94, 1.17) | 1.17 (0.99, 1.37) | 0.92 (0.74, 1.14) | 1.48 (1.31, 1.66) | 1.08 (0.99, 1.17) | 1.13 (1.03, 1.24) |
| EF*, truncated above 60, per 10 unit decrease | 1.37 (1.32, 1.43) | 1.28 (1.21, 1.35) | 1.15 (1.06, 1.25) | 1.32 (1.28, 1.36) | 1.21 (1.19, 1.24) | 1.16 (1.13, 1.19) |
| EF Missing, (ref: EF=60) | 2.90 (2.57, 3.27) | 1.94 (1.65, 2.28) | 1.92 (1.52, 2.42) | 1.95 (1.77, 2.15) | 1.41 (1.32, 1.49) | 1.33 (1.24, 1.42) |
| Vessels Diseased (reference: 1 Vessel Disease) | ||||||
| Two Vessel Disease | 1.11 (1.01, 1.23) | 1.10 (0.97, 1.25) | 1.02 (0.83, 1.24) | 1.41 (1.30, 1.53) | 1.15 (1.10, 1.21) | 1.09 (1.03, 1.16) |
| Three Vessel Disease | 1.23 (1.11, 1.37) | 1.42 (1.22, 1.66) | 1.11 (0.88, 1.39) | 1.76 (1.59, 1.95) | 1.34 (1.25, 1.43) | 1.19 (1.09, 1.30) |
| Left Main Disease | 2.00 (1.69, 2.37) | 1.60 (1.19, 2.14) | 0.79 (0.43, 1.47) | 2.31 (1.9, 2.82) | 1.92 (1.67, 2.22) | 1.27 (1.01, 1.60) |
| Pre-procedure Stenosis 100% | 1.47 (1.35, 1.59) | 1.22 (1.09, 1.36) | 1.01 (0.86, 1.19) | 1.58 (1.43, 1.75) | 1.09 (1.00, 1.19) | 0.95 (0.85, 1.06) |
| Acuteness of Presentation at Index Procedure | ||||||
| PCI Urgency (reference: Elective PCI) | ||||||
| Urgent PCI | 1.18 (0.87, 1.59) | 0.87 (0.67, 1.15) | 0.89 (0.64, 1.23) | 1.63 (1.47, 1.80) | 1.21 (1.15, 1.28) | 1.03 (0.96, 1.09) |
| Emergent PCI | 1.59 (1.21, 2.08) | 0.85 (0.66, 1.10) | 0.87 (0.65, 1.18) | 3.77 (3.31, 4.3) | 1.34 (1.21, 1.49) | 1.02 (0.88, 1.18) |
| Salvage PCI | 3.97 (2.86, 5.53) | 1.07 (0.64, 1.78) | 0.71 (0.33, 1.52) | 11.53 (8.11, 16.38) | 2.19 (1.13, 4.25) | 0.50 (0.07, 3.83) |
| Cardiogenic Shock | 4.26 (3.89, 4.66) | 1.62 (1.35, 1.93) | 1.23 (0.92, 1.65) | 4.04 (3.54, 4.61) | 1.51 (1.28, 1.78) | 1.12 (0.88, 1.44) |
| IABP* before Lab Visit | 1.46 (1.06, 1.99) | 1.73 (0.85, 3.54) | 0.91 (0.27, 3.06) | 1.58 (1.16, 2.16) | 1.08 (0.71, 1.64) | 0.98 (0.55, 1.74) |
*
STEMI = ST-elevation myocardial infarction, BMI = body mass index, MI = myocardial infarction, CABG = coronary artery bypass graft, PCI = percutaneous coronary intervention, GFR = glomerular filtration rate; NYHA = New York Heart Association, EF = ejection fraction, IABP = intra-aortic balloon pump